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Tribune poll: Brady leads Quinn 43-39, Rutherford leads Kelly 42-38

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Polls

[Bumped up for visibility.]

* There just isn’t any good news for Gov. Pat Quinn in the Tribune’s new poll. For instance…

Among independent voters, Brady’s backing improved 10 percentage points in the new survey while Quinn’s support remained about the same.

Brady’s now leading 47-28 among independents. If this poll is correct then they’re breaking hard his way.

* More bad news for Quinn…

Indeed, Brady now has the support of 85 percent of voters who call themselves Republican, up from 79 percent four weeks ago. Quinn’s support among self-identified Democrats has increased from 71 percent to 75 percent during the same time period. […]

Slightly more than half of black voters viewed Quinn favorably, just two-thirds supported him and more than a quarter are undecided or backing a third-party candidate. Among women statewide, Quinn has a narrow 43 percent to 38 percent advantage over Brady. Among white suburban women, the two men are statistically even at about 40 percent support.

Tied among white suburban women. Nice job, governor. Better roll out that puppy ad.

* And this is just bizarre when you think about how much money has been spent attempting to define Brady…

The poll indicates a sizable chunk of voters — nearly one in three — still have no opinion of Brady despite a year of campaigning for the state’s highest office. That Brady now has a slight lead in the poll indicates a willingness among many voters to seek change during a time of economic uncertainty and go with an unfamiliar candidate rather than a better-known commodity like Quinn.

Scott Lee Cohen was at 5 percent, Rich Whitney was at 4 and Lex Green was at 2. Another 6 percent are undecided.

* The poll also found that Bill Brady has increased his support in the collar counties by 11 points, while Gov. Quinn fell by 8. The tally there now is 50-38. But the last Tribune poll had the two tied in the collars, which nobody really believed. The new number seems much closer to reality and indicates that the paper’s previous poll (which had Quinn leading Brady 39-38) could’ve been an outlier.

The only possibly good news for Quinn is that since the poll was taken Monday through Friday, much of these results are a week or almost a week old. It’s possible that he’s moved up since then. Then again, he could’ve also moved down.

* Meanwhile, most of the down-ballot statewide races are blowouts, which is no surprise. The only close contest is for treasurer…

Republican state Sen. Dan Rutherford held a 42 percent to 38 percent edge over Democrat Robin Kelly, a former south suburban lawmaker and current chief of staff to Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. The poll’s error margin is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Rutherford, who lost a run for secretary of state four years ago, held a 3-to-1 cash advantage. He launched broadcast TV ads in the Chicago area in mid-October.

Kelly did best among Chicago voters, with 61 percent to Rutherford’s 11 percent. Rutherford led Kelly in the collar counties, 53 percent to 31 percent, and downstate, 51 percent to 29 percent. Both candidates had 41 percent support in suburban Cook County.

Independent voters broke toward Rutherford, who had 46 percent to Kelly’s 25 percent.

Judy Baar Topinka is creaming David Miller 57-26. Lisa Madigan is crushing her opponent 69-21. And Jesse White is absolutely trouncing his Republican opponent 72-18.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 12:11 am

Comments

If Lisa is winning by so much it is still perplexing that she has run television ads. Especially ones that do nothing to help Democratic turnout.

Comment by Aaron Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 10:26 pm
Does anyone know why JBT is running for Comptroller when she could bring specific experience to Treasurer (which also is an open seat, so no more difficult to win) having served in that position multiple terms? Variety? To see her name on all those checks? I saw her on Chicago Tonight last week and she wasn’t asked this seemingly obvious question.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 10:28 pm
I’s are breaking hard for GOP nationally, according to new George Washington poll released today, jumping from 38% on 9/27 to 44% today.

Quinn is getting caught in that undertow, too.

http://www.gwu.edu/explore/mediaroom/gwinthenews/researchspotlight/october25pollresults

Comment by David Ormsby Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 10:37 pm
===If Lisa is winning by so much it is still perplexing that she has run television ads.===
Just saw a Jesse White ad for the first time about two minutes ago.

Comment by Been There Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 10:45 pm
You are right on Ormsby. It’s going to take a fumble on the one yard line by Brady for Quinn to win. Sunday’s game showed me that fumbles on the goal line do happen.

Comment by Frustrated Bears Fan Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 10:46 pm
Rutherford pretty much was running for Treasurer since 2006 when he took a bullet for the GOP and ran against Jesse White instead of running for Treasurer that year. I don’t think they wanted to screw Rutherford again and didnt want a primary battle.

Comment by Been There Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 10:49 pm
Just looked up the fundraising totals out of curiosity. Madigan’s fund plus the Democratic Party raised about $3.5 million in 2006 from July 1 to October 25. This year, that figure is about $9.5 million.

Comment by Jeff Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 10:54 pm
===Scott Lee Cohen was at 5 percent===
Interestedly, Cohen got 213,000 votes in the primary for Lt Gov. I think the 2006 General Election had around 3 and a half million voters. If turnout is the same, 5% is only 175,000. He will end up with less votes than he got in primary.

Comment by Been There Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 10:56 pm
This is great news for Quinn, whose at his best as the fighting underdog!

Comment by Quinn-bashing fad Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 10:57 pm
Not to get all gloomy, and surprise or not, this feels like it’s over. Like these are the number we’re going to be seeing a week from tomorrow night.

Comment by Cheswick Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:16 pm
It’s all over but the resume sending and the crying and the such. At least for the statewides it is, the real action now will be watching the GA races.

Rutherford’s ads are all over Chicago TV since Saturday, that should bump him up an extra few percentage and help squish Robin Kelly’s dim hopes.

Comment by Siriusly Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:24 pm
So basically, in a year that’s supposed to be all about anti-incumbency, the names that have been around the longest are doing the best. At the end of the day it’s still all about name recognition, with a couple of exceptions for the top job or two.

Voters in this state are truly screwed up.

Comment by just sayin' Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:31 pm
It is still not over with. If it was more than 5 points then I would have to start thinking differently. Within 4 points and just outside the margin of error of 3.7 which makes it still close. It all depends on turnout and not on polling or commercials before the election. The key to the election will be who can get their base out to vote. In my class on polling we look at many factors and it makes me doubt a lot of polls that I read. Also take a loot at the people who still have not made up their mind. They are the key in a close election. My prediction is still within 1 or 2 points for the Governor’s race.

Comment by Publius Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:33 pm
No really surprises in this poll and not much to take comfort in if you Governor Quinn. It might reenforce in some voters’ minds that what Hendon said was desperate talk for a failing campaign.

Comment by RMW Stanford Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:38 pm
the lt gov debate.

http://www.wttw.com/main.taf?p=42,8,80

key parts to watch are plummer at the beginning flubbing questions on creationism and guns. and later on trashing sheila simon nonstop for 4 minutes about the 22 minute mark.

Comment by shore Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:56 pm
if indepdendents are breaking for brady and suburban women are neutral it’s that the economy is so bad they are voting their bank accounts over their bodies.

I also don’t see a world where brady wins and alexi wins.

Comment by shore Monday, Oct 25, 10 @ 11:59 pm
“I also don’t see a world where brady wins and alexi wins.”

I agree. And if somehow it did happen, we’ll never hear the end of it from the Right.

Comment by just sayin' Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 12:47 am
“I also don’t see a world where brady wins and alexi wins.”

I could see it because the Brady vote outside the GOP base is more anti-Quinn than anything else. Undecideds in the Senate race could realize that with electing a freshman senator (if Kirk wins he would have the highest seniority of any freshman and he would still be in the 80s with high turnover) that you are just electing a partisan voting machine and that Alexi’s votes would be more in line with them more than Kirk’s would.

Comment by Lewis Grad Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:12 am
Shore, thanks for posting the link to the lt gov debate/forum/exchange.

Plummer was much more articulate this time than the last time Phil Ponce questioned him; he has practiced, clearly. But his answer on the very predictable question about not releasing his tax returns was pretty hollow. Can’t help wondering what’s in those returns that he does not want voters to see.

Shelia Simon did a nice job of working in her family (especially the remark about cashing in a savings bond to help pay her daughter’s tuition–easy for folks to relate to), and she managed to do that without dropping in, even once, her father’s name (though Ponce did, in passing). Definitely worth watching the whole thing, even if this is “just” the LG spot.

Comment by Steve Downstate Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 3:01 am
The Governors Debate:

http://www.wsiltv.com/p/news_details.php?newsID=11355&type=top

Comment by Dominik Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 7:18 am
I keep waiting for Rod’s election surprise: a statewide endorsement tour starting in the Metro East with Hoffman, stopping in Decatur for Flider, in Joliet for Wilhelmi and ending on Daley Plaza with a session for the suburban Dems who “deserted” him.

If he really wanted to serve it cold this would be the time. What a frightening thought.

Comment by Bouncing Betty Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 8:07 am
I wish Sheila was at the top of the ticket. She’d probably get slaughtered but at least we’d have a decent choice.

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 8:27 am
==“I also don’t see a world where brady wins and alexi wins.”==
Yeah, well get ready shore because that is exactly what’s going to happen. It is a race to the bottom here in good old Illinois.

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 8:30 am
Rich do these polls call people who have cell phones? Many people no longer have home phones. If they are only using home phones it could make a difference.

Comment by Just Asking Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 9:29 am
“…rather than a better-known commodity like Quinn.”

This from Wikipedia: A commodity is a good for which there is demand.

There in lies the problem!

Comment by KnuckleHead Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 9:34 am
Every time the Trib comes out with a poll Rasmussen comes out a few days later with double the Tribs numbers.

Comment by KnuckleHead Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 9:44 am
Rich. You should post all the debates

Comment by Simple Point Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 9:48 am
Although there may have been a commercial way back that addressed Brady’s position on women’s right to choose, especially in cases of rape and incest, I don’t remember it.

If Quinn let’s women go to the polls not knowing his opponent is against letting a women take a morning after pill if they got raped he is making a big mistake.

Comment by Phineas J. Whoopee Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 10:18 am
Amazing how fast voters forget about the fact that JBT never did a thing to stop Ryan. But apparently she’s going to run the office cleanly and efficiently. Sure, that will happen.

Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 10:31 am
Skeeter did I miss something, did Treasurer’s somehow get police powers? If so, why didn’t Alexi use his gun and badge on Blago?

Just crazy.

Comment by Raising Kane Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 12:01 pm
Skeeter,

A similar argument can be made for Quinn/Blago, was it your intention to show yet another reason why Brady will win?

Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 12:02 pm
Raising Kane and Cincy,

Ever hear of a telephone? You don’t need a badge. A phone works fine.

With regard to Quinn — that’s exactly what you all have been saying anyway,isn’t it? But somehow when it comes to your person, the rules should not apply. Another reason to hate politics. When it is your guy “Why should it matter?” When it is the other guy, it is the centerpiece of a campaign. So much for issues.

Finally, “will” win? People win for all sorts of crazy reasons. For instance, many people think President Obama raised taxes and many people think that if we just get rid of a few patronage workers, we can balance the state budget without raising taxes. There are all sorts of reasons.
But the bottom line remains that if people think JBT is somehow going to clean things up, I want to talk to them about a bridge I’ve got on the market.

And one last note — I have to love Cincy’s world view: If you rip one in the GOP, you must be some hard core partisan. No Cincy, some of us don’t think that way. When we take a ballot, we look at people and not party labels. You may want to try it some time.

Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 12:12 pm
Skeeter, that is some serious anger management issue you seem to be having. A State Treasurer has no way of knowing what is going on in a Gov office. Alexi had no idea Blago was trying to sell Obama’s seat but in your world he should be held accountable for it. Really??

If you have issues with JBT or your a supporter of David Millers, that is cool. But to imply that she should have known what was going on in the innerworkings of the Gov office is so off the wall it either comes from total ignorance of state goverment or some kind of personal bias that is devoid of any facts.

Comment by Raising Kane Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 12:33 pm
Right Kane. JBT had no idea at all that George Ryan might be up to something shady. No idea at all. None whatsoever. Thought everything he was doing was completely legit.

Give me a call about that bridge. You and I need to talk. If you believe that JBT had no idea that George was up to something, then you surely will believe that I’ve got proper title to the Michigan Ave bridge.

Regarding anger management — maybe you and I can find somebody who will take a volume discount. I can talk about anger, and you can talk about the wild little fantasy land where you reside.

Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 12:41 pm
Skeeter, The JBT argument could be applied to Alexi, Quinn, and Lisa Madigan. I don’t know that you should be throwing that one around if you like any of those three candidates. One could easily make the argument that Quinn and Lisa Madigan had more reason to be suspicious of their Governor than Alexi or JBT, given their respective offices.

Comment by lawyerlady Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 12:57 pm
Um, Skeeter,

I was just pointing out you own logic back to you, if you want to tar Judy with George, you should be willing to tar Pat with Rod. This is an extension of your words, not mine.

BTW, Brady by 6%.

Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:03 pm
Ummn, Cincy,

Again, isn’t that exactly the argument that you are making? You have been talking Quinn/Blago. But you get really upset when people point out Ryan/JBT.

And, ummn, why would you think it would bother me if you say the same thing about Quinn? I’ve bashed Quinn on this site more than most.

And what in the world would make you think that I (or anybody on this thread) cares about your prediction? As long as you are at it, here’s mine: Chelsea takes the Premiership, and Liverpool avoids relegation. Now we both have predictions that don’t matter to anybody here.

Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:09 pm
It seems to me that I remember Alexi cleaning up Judy’s mess regarding the Hotels in Springfield and Collinsville. Maybe she will do a better job with the clean and efficient idea this time around

Comment by Just Saying Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 2:27 pm