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* Greg Hinz sees a little ray of sunshine for statewide Dems…
As of Monday 52,900 city residents had cast ballots, according to the Board of Elections. That’s less than one-third of the early vote in the extraordinary Barack Obama year of 2008, but more than twice the 2006 total of 24,800. The early polls remain open until Thursday evening.
Some folks who watch these numbers say they indicate that overall city turnout now is headed well above 50% — absolutely critical if the Ds are to give GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady and U.S. Senate hopeful Mark Kirk a competitive race.
Early turnout in the city now is approaching the 55,000 total in suburban Cook County, the latter number from County Clerk David Orr. But while the city already has more than doubled its final 2006 number, the county still is a bit shy of that mark; 33,000 voted early then. […]
Meanwhile, the Lake County Clerk’s Office reports 24,885 early voters as of Tuesday morning, somewhat above the 18,437 who voted early in 2006, and under a third of the final 2008 figure of 83,000.
Totals are softer in DuPage County. According to the clerk’s office 21,400 have voted as of Tuesday morning. That about matches the final 2006 number of 21,232 and is under a quarter of the final 2008 number of 96,000.
In addition to early voting, remember that people can vote absentee without an excuse this year.
*** UPDATE *** Hinz updates…
A Republican operative with access to number crunching came up with a wider view of what’s occurring — and a different spin.
According to that source, while 55,000 Chicagoans so far have voted early and roughly 36,000 in sububan Cook, 82,000 have done so in the fiive suburban collar counties and 67,000 Downstate.
* From WLS Radio…
The turnout this year may double that of 2006, a release from [Cook County Clerk David Orr’s] office said. “We anticipate at least doubling the 33,000 early voting ballots cast in the 2006 gubernatorial election,” Orr said. “Twenty of our 43 locations have served 1,000 voters or more and the busiest days may still be ahead.”
The Orland Park Village Hall, (3,981), Wheeling Township Hall (3,681), Northbrook Village Hall (3,034) and Centennial Park in Wilmette (2,458) are the busiest sites after two weeks, the release said.
Many election experts expected up to 10 percent of voters to vote early. But with only a few days left before early voting closes, many of the state’s larger counties have fallen short of that number.
In Sangamon County, Stacey Kern, director of the election office, said she has seen less than 3 percent of registered voters show up for early voting. […]
Georgia Volm, County Clerk of Adams County, said she has seen less than 5 percent of registered voters show up to vote early.
Farther north in Rock Island County, Dianna Ruhl, Acting County Clerk, said she has seen a little less than 7 percent turnout for early voting.
Pamela McCullough, County Clerk for Boone County, said this fall has had heavy turnout for both early voting and absentee voting in the county. She said her office has seen 391 early voters since Oct. 18 out of 33,679 registered voters.< /blockquote>
* Meanwhile…
A federal judge will hear testimony Tuesday on a Republican bid to widen the scope of an agreement giving six Illinois counties more time to count military and overseas ballots.
Under terms of a pact inked Friday between the state and the U.S. Department of Justice, three counties -Boone, Jersey and St. Clair -have until Nov. 18 to count ballots that are returned from overseas voters. Schuyler, Massac and Hancock counties have until Nov. 19.
All other counties and election authorities - even those that were late in sending out some of the military ballots - will have to count returned ballots by Nov. 16. In all, nearly a third of Illinois election authorities missed a Sept. 18 deadline to send out the military ballots.
* Related…
* Early, absentee voting nearing conclusion
* Early deadline voting looms for Southern Illinois
* ‘Grace-period voting’ ends today
* Dems tout encouraging signs in early voting
* The early vote: signs of GOP passion
* Unions labor to rally rank and file for elections - Democrats are counting on an intense get-out-the-vote effort to help their chances in key states.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 12:04 pm
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I think the point was made here during the February primary that 2006 was the first year for voting early in Illinois, so I’m not sure how relevant any comparisons to ‘06 are at this point.
Comment by Team America Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 12:17 pm
Also, presumably many suburban and downstate voters are older and more traditional (if not conservative) voters for whom election day voting is the norm. There are ward and precinct organizations in the City that help to drive early voting, but fewer such resources elsewhere. All the same, it does indicate that there is some mobilization occurring in areas crucial for Quinn, Giannoulias et al.
Comment by some_dude Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 12:23 pm
Team America took the word out of my mouth. The comparison between 2006 and today has little relevance.
Comment by Moving to Oklahoma Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 12:30 pm
Early voting and absentee voting are a buzz kill. Part of the fun of elections is the ritual; the increasingly tense days running up to election day, culminated in the vote.
Plus, my precinct judges always have homemade cookies and brownies for the early voters.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 12:38 pm
ugh, after the 2 hr wait in 2004 (albeit out of state) and the 45 min wait in 2006 all the fun of election day voting has been sapped. Although after going earlier this month and seeing 3 of the 12 machines WORKING, I might have to absentee vote for Palin in 2012 (joke).
Comment by Bakersfield Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:00 pm
The trajectory of this election has been trending in only one way for the past several weeks and nothing has risen to change that.
I am an old democrat and I cannot see how we will avoid getting beaten, and beaten badly. Our incompetent Governor and his merry band of children have blown it and the House and Senate Democrats may well pay the price for their part in the financial farce that has become state government.
Comment by Realist Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:05 pm
In a thread on Nate Silver’s, blog, I made the comment that early voting is in its infancy, and correlation to results cannot be made with any certainty. There is no way to tell if the early voting results mean angry Dems are voting to throw the bums out, supporting their own troops or something in between. Same for Republicans. Same for Independents. Until we have a few more early voting elections under our belts, we have no idea how to use this data in a prediction other than a gut feeling on what the numbers mean.
As far as the fun of voting at a precinct on election day, I cannot agree more with those who say early voting is sapping the enjoyment of meeting your neighbors at the polls. There is another more significant effect for those wonks among us, and that is the effect on scheduling campaign efforts. Is October 11th the new November 2nd? When do you drop ads, literature and mailings when early voting increases even more in popularity? Can campaigns afford to stick with traditional scheduling when 20% of the people vote early?
Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 1:24 pm
Early voting is yet another tool to protect incumbents, who have the superior resources and name recognition to benefit from votes cast before all information is in. Challengers have to husband their resources and get their messages out late on TV, etc. Early voters cast their ballot before they have access to all relevant information about the candidates.
Comment by Upstate Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 2:11 pm
What’s the significance of the Hinz update? The text of his original post compares the Chicago numbers to 2006, but his update lacks a similar comparison. some_dude’s point, which seems plausible enough to me, suggests that this could be huge for Brady, but it would be helpful to see the numbers from suburban Cook, the collar counties, & downstate placed in some kind of context.
Having said that, Cincinnatus makes a lot of sense.
Comment by chaunceyatrest Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 2:17 pm
Early voters are overwhelmingly older, more D than R so far and regular voters. 4 out of 5 of them voted in 2006.
Comment by The Captain Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 2:22 pm
I have heard reports that there are lines in sangamon county for early voting.
I am heartened to hear people are out excecising their right to vote, results of the election aside.
Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 2:51 pm
I voted yesterday evening in SE DuPage county and it was *packed*. There were about 10 machines set up, all of which were filled and there were continuously at least 5-6 people either lined up waiting for an available machine or getting checked in. I agree with Ghost; it was great to see - and one can assume based on my politics and the politics of most of the other residents of DuPage County that I likely didn’t vote the same as most who were there! And, I’m an election judge, so early voting is a must - and I had all of the relevant information about the candidates that I needed to make my decision, thank you very much! If you as a candidate, incumbent or challenger, haven’t been able to get your message out by now, then another week or two isn’t going to be all that much help. I do agree, however, that it is something that campaigns are going to need to think about more and more as time goes on and change how things are done.
Comment by Katydid Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 3:40 pm
I checked and early voting and absentees are up in fayette county (my home). Its a small county and Republican. Not sure what it means but its good to see people taking an interest and voting.
Comment by illinois democrat Tuesday, Oct 26, 10 @ 10:27 pm