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* This looks like Alexi Giannoulias’ positive closer. It features both President Obama and the First Lady…

* The Question: After all the extreme negativity this year, can positive ads like this one break through all the last-week clutter and work? Explain.

* By the way, I let Barton pick the winner of yesterday’s “Cyclone contest,” and he chose Secret Square for this one…

The Capitol Fax Political Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Illinois in a High Risk for an outbreak of severe campaign rhetoric, damaging news leaks, destructive character attacks, and attack ads gusting to 75 words per minute until 7 p.m. next Tuesday.

SS should e-mail me with his/her particulars. Congratulations and thanks to all!

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 12:41 pm

Comments

Nope. This one misses the mark.

This piece is a nice introduction piece to get people to listen in the first place. But at the close you need the positive piece that separates you from your opposition. UNLESS all he can point to is being a nice guy and the friend of the president. In that case he is a more flawed candidate than I ever realized.

Comment by A.B. Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 12:44 pm
There is so much clutter to break through I wonder if it’s even possible. But I’m a sucker for positive ads, so I hope the answer is yes.

Too much of our political advertising is designed to tell us why we should vote AGAINST the “other” candidate and not enough telling us why we should vote FOR someone. I realize negative ads move voters. They work for campaigns, but they sure don’t work for our system.

I like this ad. If I was advising Giannoulias, I’d have told him to sharpen the contrast and make this race Obama v. McConnell. This ad helps, but the contrast is too subtle. Alexi talking to the camera saying he’s going to Washington to help the President move the country forward is what I would have recommended for the closing ad.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 12:51 pm
Maybe a little, but it is just like the rest of his positive ads featuring his one trick postive Hartmarx pony.

Comment by Bakersfield Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 12:53 pm
I think it can, at least to motivate the base and to show any undecideds that still might be out there that you’re not a monster.

That’s why most candidates close with positive stuff. At this point, everyone is claiming that they’re sick of negative ads. Whether that’s true of not, it appeals to how people like to think of themselves.

This ad goes to the base. And to moms. You dance with the ones that brung you. Very well done, a 9.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 12:54 pm
Hey A.B.

You clearly don’t understand what is happening in that ad. It is a very powerful closer and if you don’t think that older women allover the state aren’t thinking that Alexi is a good boy that loves his mother and that is good enough for them, then you don’t know much. The two most important things to voters are always, “is he/she on my side” and “do ilike him/her”. This ad should help with both of those questions as people go to the polls. What do we know about Mark Kirk’s family? Ask yourself that question. Kirk is divorced, no kids and what was that about his father. Not a good comparison. Alexi is a nice boy and he is on our side. That may be good enough in this election when everything has been so nasty.

Comment by CookDemCon Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 12:56 pm
People, stick to the question. It’s not necessarily about this ad. It’s about positive ads like this one.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 12:56 pm
Q: Can positive ads like this one break through all the last-week clutter and work?

A: No. Everyone expects supporters to say nice things about a candidate.

This years’ races will be won by the campaigns that best deliver the message “the other candidate is a dangerous — and possibly evil — sob”. That negative message serves the dual purpose of swaying some independents and demoralizing soft supporters. The close races will won by those who best tearing-down the other candidates’ numbers, not by building their own numbers up.

Maybe this is just a function of this seasons candidates, but I don’t imagine the number of “that other candidate is a horrible, horrible monster” ads will decrease in 2012.

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:01 pm
Nope, everyone is so tuned out on political ads that at this point it would require nudity to get folks to notice.

Actual Nudity

Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:02 pm
Its a good closer, nicely done. Too bad it has been drowned out by the negative ads. I really feel that voters have tuned out political ads and mailers right about now after being deluged with negativity. In a normal election year, it would have had a better impact. Now its just lost among a sea of shouting voices.

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:03 pm
Alexi ad:

Other than the Obama’s there are no blacks or hispanics in the ad, which I find curious.

Positive ads fall into the old campaign scheduling meme of closing the campaign with on. As others have noted, there is so much negative clutter right now that the ad may not break through. However, I would expect all of the candidates to have the equivalent ad in the bag, so we can expect to see them very soon. This will not stop outside groups from their continuation of negative hit pieces. All in all, I think this ad is ineffective, too little and too late.

Comment by Cincinnatus Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:04 pm
OneMan: I now shall wait to see the coming ads featuring naked people with strategically placed items stating that the candidate is a “natural” fit for the office he/she seeks.

I will blame it all on you.

Comment by unclesam Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:08 pm
I think positive ad’s hav a role in trying to motivate your get out the vote efforts; they also help to humanize canidates in the moments beofre you go n to vote, and I would not underestimate the value of doing that.

Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:10 pm
Nope, too late…..other than the candidates and those creating the ads, everyone is sick sick sick of this campaing season. UGLY!!!!!

Comment by downhereforyears Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:11 pm
@CookDemCon
Actually I do have a pretty good concept of what is happening in that ad. The problem is that AG has never defined himself as a leader. So being a good boy doesn’t make him a Senator.

Contrast it against Kirk’s “Mr Independent” ad that is currently running. That piece shows that he is an independent legislator, who is effective and will take the tough road.

For those undecided independents, this is much more likely to solidify a decision for them.

To your point about comparing families….Kirk’s family as your described, or the 34 year old with a family that has just had their bank shut down?

Comment by A.B. Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:12 pm
I’m a huge believer in positive ads for “the close”. Even if the election outcome is a foregone conclusion or if the voter’s choice was solidified earlier, it is good for the candidates to end the campaign with some grace and dignity and humanity and decorum. A nice close means that whether the politician wins or loses, people may not automatically feel their gag reflex emerge every time they see that candidate’s name mentioned in the future. And that’s worth something.

Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:12 pm
I will address the general question first.

Can positive “closers” work? Yes, they can. Positive closers can shore up base support, and pick off remaining undecideds.

Does this particular closer work? Yes and no.

YES: It tries to bring home the base. It speaks to your union, female, and African American voters with a President most of them adore, and a positive message they will like.

NO: 1. So much negative campaigning has gone into this race that to try and put a “happy face,” on it just seems like far too much of a stretch, for EITHER candidate.

2. This ad comes with a very large degree of risk. While it plays to the base, it pretty much signals to most Independents that Alexi’s time to try and pick up their vote has passed. Even in IL, where the President enjoys a 51 to 53% approval rating, his IL approval amongst Independents is only around 40% (and in some cases, like today’s Rasmussen poll, far lower). For Alexi to tie himself to the President in the ad, he risks turning off a large amount of undecided Indy voters out there. The problem? Many of your undecided voters are Indy voters.

So the ad is a win/lose. Very nicely done, but with a good amount of downside, and only a moderate amount of upside.

Comment by ChrisChicago82-Independent Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:15 pm
@OneMan - I pray to God that you are not suggesting nudity on the part of the candidates.

Comment by MrJM Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:18 pm
I personally love positive ads and breathe a huge sigh of relief whenever I see one, but no, I don’t think they have a huge impact. There are, by this point in the race, dozens of negative accusations floating out there about a candidate, and a 30 second fluff ad about how that candidate ‘cares’ isn’t going to counteract all that.

I think the most effective positive(ish) ad at this point is a compare/contrast, that features candidate more heavily than the opponent.

Comment by lawyerlady Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:19 pm
=Nope, everyone is so tuned out on political ads that at this point it would require nudity to get folks to notice. Actual Nudity=
The average voter has tuned out commercials so I find it hard to believe it will have an impact at this point. As for the nudity, there’s good naked and bad naked. Joe Berrios…..no thanks.

Comment by Who Cares Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:21 pm
I generally like positive ads, but it’s hard for me to dismiss all the other Alexi stuff and stomach the “he’s a nice boy” nonsense. I think that is the same way most voters will see it too. They are reprising the HartMarx things, and adding Obama. I would not bank on Obama, with falling poll numbers, to do it for me. this is a very average positive ad, and that may not be good enough.

Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:21 pm
OneMan not sure if it counts, but I misread one of Rich’s lede’s for today and though we had a blog section on new tv ad’s and porno videos….

Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:23 pm
While “fascinating,” let’s not allow this nudity thing to get outta hand.

Thanks.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:23 pm
Joe Berrios-no thanks. LOL

Comment by wizard Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:28 pm
Just when everyone is so sick of negative ads they have lost faith is all of the candidates, it’s nice to see something upbeat and positive…a “feel good” ad. I think this does just the trick.

Comment by Politicalady Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:30 pm
The ad makes me feel better about Alexi. It’s a warm fuzzy. Meanwhile, my vote has already been cast.

To Rich’s bigger question, at this point, I don’t know if positive ads work, if negative ads work, if field works, if money works or if it is all just party, ballot placement and name recognition. I listen to NPR, canceled my cable to save money and don’t watch local news so I have not seen or heard a single of these ads since the Bears Monday Night game. Who knows?

Comment by State Sen. Clay Davis Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:31 pm
I don’t really know if positive Ads can break through all the clutter in a lot of races, but the Alexi Ad works for me probably because the Senate race was so focused on negative character. Kirk is a liar and embellishment czar, and Alexi a mob banker and liar. This particular Ad works but in other races positive ads may be too little too late.

Comment by downstate hack Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:35 pm
Wow! This is a homerun to the independents and the 30-40% Obama approval numbers downstate.

Comment by The truth Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:35 pm
Positives can help seal the deal.

Do we know where this is running?

Comment by A-Rog Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:37 pm
It’s running all the way to Alexander County.

Comment by The truth Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:40 pm
A.B., you are so full of yourself–like so many Kirk supporters–that you can’t even see your own frickin’ shoes.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:48 pm
I like the ad, it’s not just a feel good positive but it hammers home one of Alexi’s key messages. “He’s about people.”

I don’t think it will make much difference at this point in this year, but I do like the ad. I also like the Lisa Madigan positive ads. Different - cutting through. I bet people will remember those ads far more than they will all the deep voiced negs.

Comment by siriusly Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:48 pm
And I say that AS a KIRK supporter, A.B.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:49 pm
Yes the positive ads work in the last week of the election unfortunately because news cycles are so fast. If they were put out sooner, they would be forgotten.
Like many people, I would like to see a day when people start running on what they want to do as opposed to trashing their opponent. Negative advertising is so effective, candidates will continue to use them at least for the foreseeable future.

Comment by Richard Afflis Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:49 pm
Lisa Madigan should be running for one of the two top positions. She would have my vote.

Comment by The truth Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:54 pm
Alexi is a seriously flawed candidate and, for all of the piling on that Mark Kirk has been doing, not too many of the allegations vary to much from the stuff that Mike Madigan tried to use against him when he supported another candidate for treasurer in the 2006 primary.

It should have been a simple matter for the Democrats to have retained this seat with a better nominee. The only thing that Alexi really has going for him is Obama’s endorsement which was also all he had in his initial election. It is amazing how much money the Democrats have had to commit to what was once considered a safe seat.

Comment by Honest Abe Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:55 pm
Nice, CookDemCon. Are you looking to shoot yourself and your Candidate in the foot now? Come on, you have a few days left. Go for it.

Here kitty kitty.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:56 pm
Great ads break through, positive or negative. Quinn’s Glee ad, for example — terrific, to the point, perfectly aimed at the audience. Joe Manchin’s shotgun ad - awesome. Sean Duffy’s logrolling ad. These are great ads that tell a great story. The issue is not positive vs. negative — it’s good ads vs. boring, predictable, annoying ads. Reagan’s Morning in America ad — can’t you still remember it, 30 years later? Quality cuts through clutter.

Comment by soccermom Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 1:59 pm
Just in case…the last two Anons were mine.

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 2:01 pm
And CookDem — by your “logic,” if I lived in California, I’d be voting for Meg Whitman because she’s a mom just like me. Right?

Comment by soccermom Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 2:13 pm
Doesn’t matter. Per Real Clear Politics, Kirk is ahead in the last 4 polls in this race and his lead is growing. Giannoulias can’t break 42% with less than a week to go; if empirical evidence is to be trusted, as the candidate of the incumbent party, if he’s not breaking 49%+ now, he’s doomed. Sorry folks, but this race is baked.

Comment by Bluejay Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 2:16 pm
=In that case he is a more flawed candidate than I ever realized.=

Flawed, A.B.?

He ran an honorable campaign with–it seems-limited INTERVENTION from the “outside”. His heart is in the right place. He’s obviously a good man even though he’s on “the other side”. His mother obviously loves him.

The only tragedy here is that WE didn’t recruit him when he was looking for opportunities to serve his Country.

THAT being said, now doesn’t seem to be your time, Alexi. Has nothing to do with age, experience, or commitment.

Our State and our Country are in trouble. Not because of our Presidents–past or present–but because of “outside influences”. And–whether we all personally like him or not, Kirk’s in a better position to help us right now.

You know that in your heart. Your time will come.

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 2:21 pm
Oh, and Karl: You need a date.

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 2:34 pm
They can break through, but to me it’s all about contrast.

I saw the Bill Brady positive last week for the first time. I thought ‘a little early to be running the close’ but here’s the thing - I actually noticed it because every other ad running was negative no matter who it was for.

Now…I’m not voting for Brady, but that seemed like a good strategic move. However, a positive close amidst numerous other positive closes won’t be noticed as much.

Comment by Thoughts... Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 2:48 pm
People always complain about negative ads, but candidates wouldn’t run them if they didn’t work.

Comment by Fries Is Extra Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 3:05 pm
Positive ads can get your attention. Heard this one last night (I rarely watch TV,only listen to it) and it caught my attention … but then it lost me the minute I heard Obama say we could trust AG. This is Illinois where the definition of an honest politician is “one who stays bought” … you can’t trust any of them.

So I was willing to listen … but I didn’t hear anything worth listening to, just lots of he’s a nice guy yada yada.

Would have been a lot better if it said where AG wanted to go (brighter future, better tomorrow, right the ship, even the trite hope & change) instead of “vote for me because I’m a nice guy”. We already got one of those called Quinn … and it hasn’t worked out all that well so far.

So, I was willing to listen, but didn’t hear anything giving me a reason to vote for AG. If anyone else is going to do a positive ad, tell me what you want to accomplish (other than just collecting a government paycheck).

Comment by Retired Non-Union Guy Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 3:06 pm
Truthfully, I think people are looking for a reason to vote for one of these boneheads, so positive ads certainly can’t hurt.

Comment by Jaded Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 3:10 pm
The reason they run so many negatives is because Kirk and Alexi have both used the Karl Rove playbook and went right at each other’s strengths. Kirk attack’s Alexi’s banking experience, which believe it or not was a positive until the banking collapse in 2008. Alexi points out that Kirk has lied about some of his military experience, which even without lying was pretty impressive.

So you’ve got two candidates that are afraid to talk about their own resumes. Thus the negs. It’s not so much that “it works” it is that these two losers had no other options.

Kirk’s legitimate military resume is impressive, he hasn’t mentioned it once since the primary.

Comment by siriusly Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 3:11 pm
What’s wrong with trying to “out do” from a positive perspective? Wouldn’t that be something we could all believe in? Imagine being tasked to live up to that “challenge” v. the opposite?

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 3:13 pm
=Too bad it has been drowned out by the negative ads.=

Or, OTOH, it was that one ray of sunlight and hope that everyone was looking for amid the ruins and the destruction.

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 3:33 pm
Like I said before. Mano a mano. Who are you guys? Voters wants to know–and you only have a few days left.

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 3:54 pm
The REAL, you have a choppy, obtuse pattern of postings. Between bong-hits are something?

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 3:56 pm
=Nope, everyone is so tuned out on political ads that at this point it would require nudity to get folks to notice.=

*giggles (and blushes)* I wonder whether we’ll find out some day that there was a spike in births in Illinois following this “election”.

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 4:00 pm
No, word. Just a reaction to reality, I’m afraid.

Comment by The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 4:02 pm
There was a lot of conversation in another thread about the Lake County Democrats pushing the “hey look at Labno” mailers. My theory is that some of the races have gotten SO nasty that not only do voters think the other guy is bad, they also think that the guy putting out the ad is a schmuck too. So, they have poisoned the water, and now coming out with an ad saying “hey, I’m a great guy” probably doesn’t work since so many negative ads have gone out. If they send out an add to the other candidate’s base, which essentially says “yeah, we both might be bad, but you could vote for the third party guy”, it might not be such a bad idea.

Comment by Ghost of John Brown Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 4:17 pm
I think most of us are so sick of the repetitive, negative back and forth, positive ads will be a nice change. We’ve heard plenty on who not to vote for. I suppose when Obama hits the state again, he’ll be pushing reasons why Giannoulias is the right pick. Not surprised at the timing of this.

Comment by Wensicia Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 5:09 pm
IMO, there are no “undecideds” by now: everyone really made their minds up weeks, perhaps months ago, about any of the races they care about, and what they are doing now is waiting to see if any last-minute surprises would cause them to reconsider.

“Undecideds” are just looking for one more thing to confirm or reverse the choice they’ve already made in their hearts.

Does a “milk and cookies” spot at this late hour help or hurt, assuming my theory is right? Well… My mom voted for Phil Crane, election after election, without knowing anything about him, or his opponent, or caring. She didn’t know any of the issues. “He looks so handsome and nice” she’d say. Then I would go out drinking.

For the races people don’t care enough about to research, just one more impression of a name, so that you recognize that name and not the other one on that screen or piece of cardboard, will be all it takes to get a vote. Wy do you think there is all that last-second electioneering just outside the polling pace distance limit? Would a sign with a name on it really tell you anything useful in those last thirty seconds before they hand you a ballot? Apparently, for enough people, it does make that little difference, or the campaign workers wouldn’t go to he trouble and expense.

For the races people are really cranked up about, nothing at this point matters, unless it is nuclear in scope. The old saying down in Lousiana is:

“At this point, the only thing that will stop his re-election is being caught with a dead girl, or a live boy”.

So, nice ad, Alexi. But at this stage, it will only move the totally ignorant. Maybe my mom too.

Comment by Newsclown Wednesday, Oct 27, 10 @ 10:10 pm
Can a positive ad cut thru the clutter?

Sure, if it’s focused on the one or at most 2 issues that are (a) critical to swing voters, and (b) clearly differentiate the candidates.

Can a positive ad LIKE THIS ONE cut through the clutter?

No, it fails on both the above criteria; this ad has no substance.

Comment by Marty Thursday, Oct 28, 10 @ 12:58 am