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A remap primer

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* My syndicated newspaper column is due every Friday afternoon. Since papers publish it from Sunday all the way to Thursday, I couldn’t really write about the tax hike. So, I thought I’d give readers a little remap primer. Here you go

The official Census numbers were released not long ago. The statistics revealed that Illinois will lose one congressional seat when the new district maps are drawn.

It’s impossible to know exactly what will happen with the new maps since block-level Census numbers aren’t yet available. That very specific, hyper-local data is plugged into computer programs so mapmakers can draw the new congressional and legislative boundaries. The data should arrive in late March or early April.

Once that happens, the Democrats will go to work.

Ten years ago, when the governor’s office and the Illinois Senate were controlled by Republicans and the House was run by the Democrats, the powers that be compromised by allowing incumbent congressmen to draw their own district maps.

That was a huge mistake. The incumbents did what incumbents do: They protected themselves to the point that the districts were gerrymandered worse than they’ve been in a century. The zig-zagging district running from Rock Island to Decatur made Illinois a laughing stock — as if we needed any more of that.

This time, the Democrats control all three branches of state government, so they’ll be drawing those congressional districts themselves. Senate President John Cullerton has vowed to not make the same mistake committed by his predecessor, so we hopefully won’t see anything too weird.

What we will see, however, are as many Democratic congressional and state legislative districts as humanly (or, more to the point, computerly) possible, since the Republicans are cut out of the process.

The 2010 election, with its national Republican landslide, was a blessing of sorts for Democratic mapmakers. They now have a very good idea what and where their baseline support is, since they did so poorly outside Chicago and Cook County.

Illinois has voted so solidly Democratic since the last district maps were drawn in 2001 that it was difficult to know who the true swing voters were. But with Republicans voting in near-record numbers and Democrats losing all over the place in November, now, they know.

Will and Kane counties have experienced major population growth over the past couple of decades, and we’ll almost surely see more state legislative districts in those areas. Both counties are far more “swing” now than their nearly solidly Republican days before the great exurban migration began.

Few if any downstate districts actually grew in population. All districts have to contain the same population, so that means all downstate state legislative and congressional districts will have to be much larger geographically than in the past. Some districts will be downright huge because of population problems.

Some Chicago districts also have seen population declines and many suburban areas haven’t experienced population growth to match the rapidly expanding exurbs, so most of those districts will expand as well. Chicago districts near the city’s border most likely will be extended even further into the suburbs. That could crowd out some Republican incumbents.

The state’s Latino population has increased, so we likely will see more Latino districts, partly because the Democrats want to avoid a lawsuit against the new map by some historically legally aggressive Latino groups. Chicago’s China Town won’t be split up between several districts any longer because of new state legislation. Chicago’s African-American population has continued moving into the south suburbs, but it’s not certain yet whether the migration has been enough to create new black districts, as it did 10 years ago.

Then, there will be all the little games. House Speaker Michael Madigan, for instance, is expected to go after state Rep. Dennis Reboletti (R-Elmhurst), who has survived some close calls. Many of Illinois’ newly elected Republican congressmen also could find themselves out of a job.

Some Republicans actually will be helped by redistricting.

Democratic mapmakers often try to make a district competitive by poaching as many of their own voters as they can from surrounding GOP districts and packing Republican voters into those same Republican districts.

And some heavily Democratic districts could lose partisan strength as mapmakers move some of their voters to nearby districts in order to make those districts more politically competitive. Democratic incumbents may not like it, but that’s how it goes.

Also keep in mind that we likely will see the first actual General Assembly vote on a “real” state legislative district map since way back in 1971. Every map since then was drawn by a special commission because the two parties couldn’t come to an agreement.

The new maps probably are the least interesting aspect of politics to voters, but incumbents and wannabes watch this as close as they can for obvious reasons. So, you should, too.

Thoughts?

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 10:18 am

Comments

  1. I predict lawsuits by the GOP because the Dems will over reach. If nothing else it will be very interesting.

    Comment by Fed up Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 10:34 am

  2. Republicans aren’t a protected class.

    Just sayin…

    Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 10:35 am

  3. Bobby Schilling should enjoy his single term in Congress.

    Comment by Aldyth Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 10:42 am

  4. This will be an interesting remap. Aside from Rich’s speculation about the south suburbs, much of the Latino migration is to the west, including Aurora.

    A followup on how the software and data being used in this process has changed over the past decade would be good grist for a future column.

    Comment by Boone Logan Square Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 10:46 am

  5. This is going to be interesting, I have seen the Republican remap and the numbers that they have for Latino Senators and Representatives are 7 and 15 respectively. Since the Republicans are proposing that number and Latino’s have not voted for Republicans, this means that the 7 and 15 numbers are the floor. Latino’s vote Democratic and if the Democrats don’t at a minimum match the Republican number, there could be a war in 2012 causing the Democrats to lose support of the Latino voter.

    Comment by Tell it like it is... Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 10:47 am

  6. I wonder if Quinn can extract some leverage out of this? He has the power to veto maps.

    Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 10:56 am

  7. Good analysis.

    My only thought is given how the Republican Party has become so much like the Democratic Party in Illinois, that unless you are one of the policians competing for space, it really doesn’t even matter.

    Mostly same policies and dysfunction. We’re just arguing about who goes shirts and who goes skins.

    Comment by just sayin' Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 11:56 am

  8. Bobby Schilling doesn’t even live in the 17th district now. You don’t have to live in a congressional district to run for office or be elected to said district.

    Comment by Mex Girl Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 12:28 pm

  9. Good article. It would be interesting to eventually see the new district maps of the proposed districts side-by-side, the one map put together by the GOP and the other by the Dems. I am waiting to see the geometric transformation of the 11th District. Cassandra said it is destined to become one of the first “shape-shifters”.

    Comment by Pilgrim Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 12:45 pm

  10. That’s a good primer.

    You could do a follow-up story with a theoretical cracking and packing exercise… or pick some examples from the last map.

    Comment by drew Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 12:53 pm

  11. Republicans aside, should any Dem GA members be wary of giving Madigan or Cullerton too much static on proposed budget solutions? Those squiggly lines can go all over.

    Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 12:58 pm

  12. It seems like it will be difficult for the Democrats to redraw downstate maps to salvage their prospects in places like Decatur, Peoria, Champaign, etc.

    Old-school Kennedy Democrats are still making the move to the GOP in the rural areas where Flider and Demuzio ran. And their districts are going to be expanding into less urban areas, making Madigan and Cullerton’s task even more difficult.

    Comment by mz Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 1:04 pm

  13. One exception to relative population decline in downstate population was Champaign County, including Champaign-Urbana. The population growth is due to spin-off economic activity related to the University. Only 20% of the University budget now comes from the state. Much more comes from research grants that the faculty bring in from Federal agencies, foundations, etc. Additional economic activity in the area is emerging from start-ups and continuing private sector activity from discoveries that were made at the University. Another example of the fact that appropriations for research universities are investments in economic growth, rather than pure expenditures.

    Comment by jake Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 4:17 pm

  14. how much of a stretch would it be to have a 2 congressional latino districts, one one the north side of chicago (into suburbs) and one on the south side (also into suburbs). These districts could be drawn to have a plurality of Latinos, not a majority. This does not gaurentee latino/a congress member, but gives a fighting chance, and allows some Latinos as swings in other districts

    Comment by jjpatriot Monday, Jan 10, 11 @ 4:24 pm

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