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* From the Census folks, here’s the population shift by county…
The interactive map is here. [Hat tip: IAR Buzz]
* State population changes by race…
*** UPDATE *** I meant to post this below the census data and forgot. Charlie Cook’s team gamed out a possible new IL congressional district map. Click the pic for a larger version…
* The Sun-Times ran a story this week about how the horse racing industry is dying. The paper’s charts paint a dismal picture…
* Scott Stantis’ recent cartoon contained a chart with graphs…
Heh.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 11:36 am
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Nothing to see here, move along.
HEY LOOK “A KITTY” !!!!!!!
Comment by SLICK NICK Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 11:48 am
More like “Hey, look! A Badger!”
Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 12:01 pm
So can we now label any state spending on horse racing in IL “non essential”?
Can we feed the hay burners corn ethanol?
Comment by vole Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 12:07 pm
Any prediction on how many GOP Congressional Districts go away with the population declines in the rural areas and in the city that will cause all the city CDs to move out to the suburbs?
Comment by western illinois Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 12:09 pm
Well the state revenue graph is interesting, you see the huge drop-off between 1999 and 2000 while on the other hand during the same window total wagering during the same window was basically flat to up a little bit. Also prize money went up significantly during the same window.
So wagering was flat, prizes spiked and came down but state revenues plummeted. There is your story
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 12:12 pm
===Any prediction on how many GOP Congressional Districts go away===
Probably three. Check the new map that I just posted.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 12:18 pm
I would say only 2 Republican seats are gone for sure but man . . . .does that look bad for Kinzinger.
Comment by Developer_still Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 12:26 pm
The charts on horse racing are reviewing. If we give our tracks racinos instead of looking only to out of State owned and manged casinos, we would see a major rebound in the sport and state revenues. Just look at Florida as an example. As usual, the Illinois legislators can’t see the forest for the trees.
Comment by downstate hack Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 12:36 pm
10th CD goes to the Dems if Schakowsky will give up south Wilmette and a chunk of Skokie, as this map suggests. Joe Walsh will lose in his present district. Don’t know about the others.
Comment by formerpolitico Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 12:43 pm
I can’t tell exactly but this looks like Debbie Halvorson would be lumped in with Jesse Jackson. So this map wouldn’t spell out comeback for her.
Comment by Repeat Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 1:08 pm
hard to argue with former. this is also behind the cook paywall so thanks.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 1:29 pm
Walsh lives in McHenry County. Cook’s map puts Walsh in Manzullo’s District.
Comment by Ela Observer Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 1:32 pm
On the other hand kills any chance of the Democrats picking the 14th back up when you take Aurora out of it.
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 1:39 pm
That map is much more palatable than others I have seen. Other than Johnson’s district, which looks ridiculous, most of the district are more contiguous and, with all due respect to individual MOCs, is actually fairer to the constituents the MOCs would represent. Also, it’s worthy to note that the two senior MOCs from Illinois, John Shimkus and Jerry Costello, would have favorable districts. You can’t make everyone happy, but you certainly don’t want to make the senior members angry.
Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 1:48 pm
I’m not understanding the horse racing numbers - using the total wagering and state revenue data, and taking the state revenue as a % of total wagering, we have:
1975: state got 8.4% of wagering;
1985: state got 6.6% of wagering;
1995: state got 3.7% of wagering;
2010: state got 1.0% of wagering.
I know it’s not that simple but still - quite a difference or maybe I’m missing something. What happened-better work by the horseracing lobby?
If the state got
Comment by Robert Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 2:03 pm
Those districts are way to compact. Where’s the creativity? I’m sure our folks can make it look a lot more complicated than that.
I bet they can a map that puts Shimkus, Johnson, Kinzinger, Schilling, and Schock all in the same district. I think it would look like a bug on a windshield.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 2:04 pm
(sorry hit wrong key) a larger percentage, they’d have more revenue - the state revenue drops seems to be more b/c of their share decreasing rather than the market decreasing.
Comment by Robert Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 2:04 pm
Does the horse-racing industry do any advertising or promotion at all to draw customers?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 2:05 pm
Could the jump in people who declared themselves “Some Other Race alone” be attributed to the movement to write-in American as their race?
Comment by MM Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 2:07 pm
this map would put schilling in with schock, and if schock ran the seat would remain GOP. the 11th would remain GOP. Dold would be done and the interesting scenario would have Biggert losing most of DuPage and picking up all of Aurora and joliet. her district would be in play.
Comment by The Gimmees Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 2:07 pm
It’s hard to tell from the map, but I think the horseshoe-shaped Gutierrez district ought to be inverted in the new map. You can unite the north and south side Latino communities through the loop and lakefront, while extending Davis’ still-majority African-American west into DuPage. It will likely be less AA, but still a safe Democratic seat.
I guess I’ll just keep waiting by the phone for the map-maker’s call.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 2:14 pm
Developer, Kinzinger would just have to move home to McLean County where his parents live. Maybe they could fix him up with an apartment in the basement?
Comment by Nearly Normal Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 2:18 pm
===movement===
LOL.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 2:20 pm
===movement===
I would suspect “some other race” includes many of us who could also mark “two or more races”. It’s the sort of quandary that humankind doesn’t always subdivide into neat little boxes (especially when asked to self-identify), to some demographers’ dismay. I wonder how the census will try to subdivide us in 2110.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 2:34 pm
@Six Degrees - Illinois has Tom Roeser to keep the race-mixing epithets straight for us.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 2:57 pm
Rich…Do you have any party id numbers for Cook’s Cong. Map?
Comment by Louis Howe Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 3:13 pm
Pot Calling Kettle
===bug on a windshield====
No it wouldn’t - it would look like a ducky. Our new state symbol - the Freedom Ducky!
r
Comment by RWP Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 3:50 pm
Re: State population changes by race…
I think the Black population has been undercounted somehow. I thought that earlier when I saw the extent to which the high Black population legislative districts had lost population–now I am pretty certain. No way did we have a selective substantial outmigration of African Americans from the state, or a selective reduction in the birth rate in that group, or a selective increase in mortality, which are the only possible demographic explanations of the numbers if they are to be believed to be correct.
Comment by jake Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 4:05 pm
The map is all wrong. There are not any gerrymandered districts.
Comment by Huh? Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 4:32 pm
Well Rush Limbaugh mentioned it once, so perhaps movement is the wrong word. Perhaps ‘not so vast right wing conspiracy’ would have been a better choice. 6 Degrees, two or more races is one of the categories listed on the table.
Comment by MM Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 4:37 pm
It’s a mistake to let the census bureau get involved in the race industry. Balmoral has between at least a dozen races three nights a week, plus OTB.
Comment by Kasich Walker, Jr.'s Bookie Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 5:42 pm
The idea of Jesse Jasckson Jr. representing a large portion of Will County will be nothing less than HORRIFYING to most Will County residents, and will serve to drag down the ticket for democrats running in all areas (except the mostly-African American areas like University Park, which JJJ has now).
Comment by the Dark Horse Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 5:49 pm
The horse market tanked shortly after the 2 or 3 slaughter houses were just down. They give away “papered” horses and they don’t sell if even for a couple hundred bucks. Then with the price of hay, gas, and the economy…..well that pretty much sums it up.
Comment by Ain't No Justice Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 5:54 pm
Is there a link to the Cook report congressional districts? I can’t see much of the detail around Chicago.
Comment by maddem Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 5:56 pm
I’m going with SPEAKRIGHTOMYHEART (currently at 6-1) in the 8th tomorrow at Balmoral.
Comment by Kasich Walker, Jr.'s Bookie Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 9:13 pm
Halvorson could run in CD1 on this map, even if she lives in CD2. And, honestly, let’s not rule her out in 2. Especially if they reconsider and take Kankakee (in her former Senate district) and lump it into CD2 instead of with that downstate district. I can’t see our friendly Dem mappers leaving Kankakee (with it’s solid African-American constituency) just outside of either CD1 or CD2 and lumping it in with what appears to be an unwinnable downstate district.
I agree that this map would be big trouble for Kinzinger. Either he is forced into CD1 or 2 or has to run against Schock in the new 11th. Schock surely won’t want to run in CD 17.
Comment by K3 Tuesday, Mar 1, 11 @ 9:57 pm
Charlie Cook has clearly never met any politicians or read census and election data.
The real question in the remap is how crazy Tom Cross’ new district will look.
It will be a direct reflection of Madigan’s ire.
Comment by G. Willickers Wednesday, Mar 2, 11 @ 12:31 am