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* This is probably no surprise. Click the pic for a larger view…
Quinn’s not up again for a while yet, but Democratic legislators have to be experiencing serious indigestion problems right about now. They’re all up next year.
As I’ve said before, too much change causes reactions like this, and people are neither going to forget nor forgive this tax hike any time soon.
1,184 registered Illinois voters. Taken yesterday by We Ask America, which claims that “the poll was geographically balanced and had a 38%/31%/31% ratio of Democrats/Republicans/Independents responding.”
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 8:34 am
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There’s been a lot of heavy lifting in recent months. It’s not like Quinn was terribly popular at the time of the election. He was just more popular than the other guy.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 8:55 am
I wonder what Extremist Brady’s approval rating would be right now if he was elected governor.
Probably like 3%.
Comment by Jose Jiminez Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 9:03 am
Voters may well remember the income tax hike at the next election, as they did with Ogilvie. Yet history has been kind to that one-term governor.
Comment by reformer Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 9:06 am
Well I guess 69% of Illinois voters don’t like being lied to every time Quinn makes a statement.
Comment by Fed up Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 9:11 am
Let’s not forget that Greg Baise and the IL Manufacturers Assn is behind the polling company We Ask America. Not that it totally discounts the results, but maybe a grain of salt?
Comment by K3 Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 9:15 am
Democrats may be uneasy about 2012 right now, but it’s a Presidential year and Dem voters in Illinois will surely turn out in high numbers to support Obama. Though turnout and support may not be as strong as 2008.
Comment by Ryan from Carrollton Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 9:18 am
On the face of it this looks bad for the Dems. But the question will be not how much do you loathe Quinn and the Dems (vote early and often), but whether you think the GOP would be better? Or even worse? See last gubernatorial election for results.
Comment by Excessively Rabid Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 9:20 am
seems consistent with approval ratings Quinn had last fall. PPP in August had him at 23%–their polling leaned a bit GOP. The interesting thing may be that the tax hike didn’t drop his approval ratings that much since he was essentially bottomed-out.
Comment by Easy Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 9:26 am
Do do Down State Dem. Legislators suffer the wrath in 2012?
Comment by Lady GaGa Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 9:36 am
@K3, We Ask America was attacked as being an outlier last election, showing Bobby Schilling well in reach of winning, Randy Hultgren with a lead of over 5%, and Kizinger comfortable. Problem is all those things turned out to be true.
As for Quinn…Illinois isn’t as liberal as as he has been, and as Wordslinger mentioned he was not popular during the election…even with incumbency (and his shady union deals) he was just barely more popular than Brady.
Problem is IL Repubs have demonstrated a proven ability to shoot themselves in the foot even with a breeze at their back.
Comment by Liandro Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 9:36 am
this polling firm was the only one that had republicans upsetting bean, seals and some other cats last fall so dismiss it at your peril.
I agree with the earlier commenter, brady would have probably been emboldened by what walker was doing, urged on by the tea party people and ended up with similar numbers no matter what.
Comment by shore Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 9:49 am
At least Quinn appears to have half a brain with some ideas. Any Republicans speaking with some sense, NO. They seem to be invisible. Which is a shame because prehaps they might have some good ideas.
Comment by Tom Smith Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 10:15 am
Rich, to be fair, Quinn’s approval has been that low for a while. It was 32% on October 31st, right before the election.
I don’t know if everything can fall on the changes over the past few months. Unless there is a more recent poll/trend out there that I haven’t seen.
Comment by Jo Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 10:18 am
Also, 30% is pretty good for an Illinois Governor. Blago was bouncing between 8 - 13% even before he was arrested!
:)
Comment by Jo Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 10:20 am
Can we track a shift / decline in Quinn’s job approval and specifically peg it to the tax increase?
It makes sense, mind. But job approval ratings are like Rorshach tests - everybody wants to automatically say, “It’s because the pol didn’t do [insert personal concern], that his / her ratings are down.”
It’s still a bad economy out there, overall, and Quinn never was popular. Lots of reasons he could be staying down in the 30s.
Comment by ZC Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 10:21 am
Its going to be a long 46 months.
Comment by Cassiopeia Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 10:30 am
Don’t blame me. I voted Hynes.
Comment by Dirty Red Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 10:37 am
People are reminded of that lame duck midnight tax increase every time they get a pay check. Those expecting federal tax refunds each year may find the state lame duck midnight tax increase upsetting those expectations come April.
The Democrats rejected the “try to cut first then talk tax increases” approach for the current path the State is on.
Now with the Senate GOP proposing some serious cuts which Governor Quinn immediately dismissed last week, it will remain to be seen if Quinn’s standing in that poll will improve or remain the same or get worse. My sense is that voters and taxpayers are expecting Illinois to cut back expenses (so long as it doesn’t affect them that much) and resistance to cutting will not improve anemic approval numbers.
The “We Ask America” pollsters were the only ones that had Robert Dold beating Dan Seals. Their poll was dismissed at the time. The other polls had Dold down and Seals winning by a healthy margin. They also had Joe Walsh neck to neck with Melissa Bean. The other polls had Bean at a landslide or didn’t even bother with that race.
I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss their polling results under those circumstances.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 10:45 am
Quinn is getting a little long in the tooth. I think he was pleasantly suprised at how things worked out and hasn’t planned much on term 2. If he can get things worked out in the next couple of years he may take a shot at re-election but I wouldn’t be suprised if he takes a pass.
We all know how much anything he says now really matters.
Comment by Bill Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 10:53 am
Many years ago a very wise man in Springfield told me all elections are “compared to who?”
Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 11:09 am
SS, exactly. Remember the old joke: “…I don’t have to outrun that bear, I just have to outrun you.”
Comment by Excessively Rabid Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 11:28 am
Illinois has become so reflexively Democratic it hardly matters. Plus, with the gerrymandering on legislative seats, who cares what the public thinks about anything?
Comment by Jim Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 11:40 am
Not good numbers, but fortunately for Quinn the approval rating for the GOP in this state would likely be in the single digits.
Comment by just sayin' Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 11:46 am
Several people have alluded that the GOP ratings would be worse than Quinn’s. Do you all have any recent polling, say since the Senate Republicans issued their spending cuts, to back up that assertion? I’d like to pore through that poll.
Comment by Cincinnatus Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 11:50 am
I think the Metro East Democrats could be in big trouble. The votes by Sen. Haine and Reps Beiser and Holbrook were very unpopular. I think Beiser will sell his first born child to get concealed-carry passed so he can save his seat next year.
Those three legislators have been untouchable during their entire legislative careers and never have any opposition, but that seems likely to change. Especially after what happened to the supposedly untouchable Jay Hoffman last November.
Comment by East Sider Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 11:53 am
Quinn and the Democrats fortunes will be completely dependent on the state of the economy. If things get better or are at least looking up the D’s will have a shot. If the economy remains in the crapper they won’t. It’s politics 101.
Comment by Stones Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 12:14 pm
Mike texts Lisa, “Excellent everything is going according to plan.”
Comment by just sayin' Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 12:27 pm
“Do you all have any recent polling, say since the Senate Republicans issued their spending cuts, to back up that assertion?”
You mean the cuts they have yet to actually submit in bill form and the cuts Radogno says only 63% of her tiny caucus are committeed to? Those cuts?
Comment by just sayin' Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 12:30 pm
Saw a poll from Pennsylvania that has the new Republican gov’s approval rating at 31%. We’ve all seen the horrific numbers for new republican governors Kasich and Walker in Ohio and Wisconsin. You can read into Gov. Quinn’s numbers what you want but does anybody seriously believe they would be noticeably higher had he not signed into law the tax increase?
Comment by slow down Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 1:16 pm
Quinn totally deserves his ratings- He suffers from a lack of leadership and an inability to talk without rambling- I wouldn’t fault him for the tax increase if he did a better job on spending- He is a total Union hack and can’t bring himself to balance the budget- Illinois will suffer for the next four years under his leadership(or lack thereof)
Comment by Sue Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 1:51 pm
Do governors Kasich, Walker and Corbett (Penn) deserve their numbers as well? They have worse numbers than does Quinn and they’re hardly “union hacks”.
Comment by slow down Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 2:20 pm
==Several people have alluded that the GOP ratings would be worse than Quinn’s. Do you all have any recent polling, say since the Senate Republicans issued their spending cuts, to back up that assertion?==
I can’t imagine most people are paying attention enough to differentiate Illinois State Senate republicans from republicans in general, so that hypothetical poll would be meaningless.
But I also agree with you that people have not much to back up their assertion that a republican gov would be less popular.
Comment by Robert Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 2:32 pm
Jechislo, I’m always fascinated by the county argument. What, exactly, is it supposed to reveal? I know you’re not supposed to tell secrets in cornfields because they’re full of ears, but are there citizens attached to those ears, too?
I guess, by that logic, Alaska should have 11 times the electoral votes and congressional representation as Illinois. A lot more square miles, right?
If anything, Illinois should examine the rationale of 102 county organizationws, as well as townships.
Rock Island County, one of the bigger ones, is scared they might not be able to certify as a county because their courthouse is falling apart and the folks there don’t want to build a new one.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 3:20 pm
I don’t thnk these results are a big surprise, not many liked Quinn to begin with. But, the alternative was so much worse. And looking at the behavior of various tea party governors in other states, I doubt the Democrats are too worried about a sudden Republican takeover in the next election. Not in this state.
Comment by Wensicia Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 4:23 pm
You are so right, Word. I was just arguing this afternoon with someone who was taunting me with the old “Quinn only won three counties.” And I said yeah — but Cook County is where the most people live. Sheesh. Of 12.9 mm Illinoisans, 5.3 mm live in Cook County. Welcome to the democratic process, where it’s one person,one vote — not one acre, one vote.
Comment by soccermom Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 4:47 pm
Didn’t Quinn win four counties? Jackson was originally in the Brady column, but eventually went with PQ.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 4:50 pm
Worse for the Dems is that the tax hike isn’t really showing up in people’s paychecks because of the offset from the temporary social security break at the federal level. No time for voters to adjust and maybe forgive.
Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 5:00 pm
For crying out loud, if the IL GOP couldn’t do it last year, it’s never going to happen.
The GOP here can’t capitalize because there’s not a single Republican you can point to as a real leader in Illinois. Until that changes, it’s a one party state.
Comment by just sayin' Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 5:18 pm
You know, I thought it was four. But when i asked the Google, it told me three. I thought I must have been mistaken — foolish moi.
Comment by soccermom Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 5:27 pm
I think Dan Rutherford would be a strong candidate. Quinn has left the middle wide open… Brady couldn’t have reached the middle with a cruise missile… Rutherford is there. The DP decision, among others, is really going to come back on Quinn in the next election.
Comment by question? Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 5:44 pm
I love the “Republicans would have [done worse, been lower] arguments. Yeah, right. Republicans would have done 48 furlough days? Locked up no-layoffs until 2014?? Would have appointed an even less qualified head of our nuclear safety agency???? These are really cruddy numbers for a newly elected executive. They’ll get worse. But we’re still stuck with him for almost four….more….years. Thanks all.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 6:32 pm
Obamas polls are not great @50 but polls show him easily beating the actualy GOP possibilities and the dems will be running in new districts and there wont be all that many downstate dems left if you recall the census
Comment by western illinois Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 6:41 pm
incredible how Republicans stay in denial in this state. 2012 is going to be a huge bloodbath for the IL gop with Obama on the ballot, redistricting, and no leadership in the state on the R side. Wishful thinking isn’t a plan.
Comment by too obvious Monday, Mar 21, 11 @ 6:54 pm