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* The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at SIU has some new statewide poll results. They poll every year. Let’s start with right track, wrong track…
Fewer than one in five voters in the Simon Poll (19.2%) said they thought things in the country were going in the right direction, down significantly from the three in ten (30.2%) who said so in 2010.
Perception of the direction of the state may have bottomed out. Only 14.9% said Illinois was heading in the right direction, statistically equivalent with last year’s 12.2% “right direction” response.
Interesting that national right track has cratered here while state right track has risen ever so slightly. Back in 2008, for instance, the Institute’s poll showed state right track at 12.4 percent.
You might think the national right track decline could be the result of President Barack Obama’s decline. Obama’s Illinois job approval rating is 51.8 percent, essentially identical to his Illinois approval rating in the Institute’s poll a year ago. That’s pretty much the same as a We Ask America poll taken a few weeks ago.
* Gov. Pat Quinn’s approval rating is 35.5 percent. That’s more than 5 points higher than the recent We Ask America poll, which had him slightly below 30 percent, but still close enough to essentially validate both results. The Institute didn’t poll Quinn’s job approval last fall, so there’s no way to measure his change over time in this particular category. But 35.5 percent is about where everybody has had Quinn for well over a year. Quinn’s approval rating in the Institute’s October, 2009 poll was 66.5 percent.
* Now, as you know, I don’t usually do national stuff, but I thought you’d like to see the rest of these numbers. As always, do your very best to avoid bumper sticker slogans and, please, eschew regurgitated DC talking points in comments. Presidential head-to-heads…
From the Institute…
“You could look at this as being uncomfortably close for the president in his home state,” said Simon Institute Director David Yepsen. “On the other hand you could say Obama is holding up fairly well in Illinois, given the difficult year he has had politically and the continued poor performance of the economy.”
* Compare those results to a recent We Ask America poll and there are some differences…
[Obama had] 50 percent vs. former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s 35 percent. Other match-ups look similar: Obama 52 percent vs. Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s 30 percent; Obama 53 percent vs. businessman Herman Cain at 30 percent; and Obama 53 percent vs. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 34 percent.
The We Ask America poll was conducted September 28 and Oct. 2. The Simon Institute poll was conducted Oct. 11-16. The Institute’s poll has apparently captured the national Cain surge. However, the Institute’s poll has Obama doing worse against the Republicans than he WAA’s poll. He’s under 50 in all but one Institute poll, and over 50 against everybody in the WAA poll. Then again, the numbers are not hugely different, so we could be looking at noise and methodology differences here. WAA does robopolling, for instance, while the Institute uses humans.
* The Institute also asked Republicans which GOP candidate they preferred…
Keep in mind that self-identified Republicans are a fairly small percentage in this state, so the margin of error is going to be quite high for that subset on a total polling universe of 1,000 registered voters.
* Also, in case anybody wants to know, the Simon Institute didn’t use taxpayer dollars to conduct this poll.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 7:42 am
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Interesting that Cain has come so far in this, from nearly total unknown to GOP contender. Would make for an interesting presidential race with Obama. Surprised that Gingrich is polling as well as he is.
Comment by beserkr29 Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 7:59 am
Those GOP numbers are baffling. What are you folks looking for, exactly? Someone who could be a competent president, or someone who will just feed your resentment?
In other words, what don’t you like about Romney or Santorum? Seriously, they’re not Republican enough for you? It’s crazy. The GOP has two excellent choices and they keep flailing around, flirting with nobodies like Cain, Perry and Palin. Do you folks want to succeed?
— Fewer than one in five voters in the Simon Poll (19.2%) said they thought things in the country were going in the right direction, down significantly from the three in ten (30.2%) who said so in 2010.
Perception of the direction of the state may have bottomed out. Only 14.9% said Illinois was heading in the right direction, statistically equivalent with last year’s 12.2% “right direction” response.–
The pessimism throughout the land is sad. I understand it, but I won’t condone it.
If you take a look around the world, and world history, a blind man can see that living in the United States in 2011 is a pretty sweet deal. Your country, right or wrong. When right, keep it right, when wrong, make it right. No more whining!
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 8:27 am
–In other words, what don’t you like about Romney or Santorum?–
Pardon, I meant Huntsman, not Santorum, lol.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 8:32 am
On the Republican side it appears to be a’ lesser of two evils’ vote. Romney continues to stay at or near the top.
Of course Herman Cain is a pretty sharp fellow and just might be the edge Republicans need. He is a good business man but his ties to the Federal Reserve and lack of government bureaucratic experience might bite him.
Newt is sharp, a good debater, but has lots of personal baggage. Is he simply a good snake oil salesman or can he really be trusted?
If we know anything, it is that the run through the gauntlet of public opinion can be brutal. The Republicans are starting to cut up each other and will likely self destruct.
I’d vote for Hillary if she ran as an Independent. At least she has the ability to lead and to deal with those who would see us fail as a nation.
Comment by Justice Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 8:43 am
Illinois Republicans are utterly cut-off from power in the State, and seem without any reasonable hope of regaining influence — as reflected by the continuing financial and personnel disintigration of the remaining party organizations and support groups. A bitterness among GOPrs has taken hold, and is reflected in these numbers. Essentially: reject anything and everything (including Romney) in order to register dissatisfaction. Illinois has gone into the strong Dem column for the next 20 years. Not much more can be expected from a political minority in such a bleak state of affairs.
Comment by chad Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 8:49 am
==or someone who will just feed your resentment?==
I believe these are the people responding to this poll. I find it hard to believe moderate Republicans would choose a Cain, Perry, or Bachmann, I doubt many are participating. I’m not surprised to see Gingrich pulling ahead of the others.
Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 8:50 am
Herman Cain is my preference to win the nomination if Michelle Bachman or Santorum doesn’t get it.
Cain’s poll numbers skyrocketed after his “Imagine there’s no pizza” video hit the news channels. What more could you ask for in a republican nominee for POTUS?
Comment by Bill Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 8:57 am
The National right track/wrong track number doesn’t surprise me in the least. In 2010, Republicans and independents were PO’d. Now Democrats have seen what GOP control of the House means these days, and so they’re PO’d too.
As for the ‘uncomfortably close’ numbers for President Obama in Illinois…well, he won 62-37 in what could fairly be considered a momentum election. He’s still up 16 points against the highest-polling Republican, even though his approval rating has fallen 14 points since 2009. In other words, it’s right in line with national trends if you accept the fact that his numbers were artificially inflated in 2008 (because of the momentum).
He’s fine here. His problem isn’t that he’s up 7.5 in Illinois. His problem is that he isn’t up 7.5 elsewhere.
Comment by Concerned Observer Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 9:09 am
Thanks Rich, want to stop by and point out the crab-grass in my front yard while you are it…
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 9:11 am
With Rick Perry continuing to tank, will Tom Cross ever have the guts to acknowledge publicly he’s part of the Perry “effort” in Illinois? I would say no. An 88 yr old man will stay the face of the Perry campaign here.
Romney wins big time.
Comment by just sayin' Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 9:14 am
Word — Thanks for the Santorum clarification. I was worried for a minute…
Comment by soccermom Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 9:16 am
Word- You also had me pretty terrified.
Comment by Juice Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 9:39 am
Hey, “Where’s Mike?,” guess who just got banned for being an idiot?
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 9:53 am
==for the most part, is an uneducated voter base who votes how they’re told or by race.==
Oh, you mean as opposed to the highly educated, well informed,articulate, issue based downstate voters who gave Rod Blagojevich the nomination in 2002.
Comment by Bill Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 9:54 am
No matter how you slice it, Obama is below 50% in his home state against the two GOP frontrunners. Obama will win Illinois, no doubt, but his tanking here will take more than a handful of Dems down even under the Dem map.
The GOP has a serious chance to minimize Congressional losses or even hold steady. Even David Axelrod’s sock puppet Tammy Duckworth is far from secure and Costello’s retirement makes the 12th very much in play. Judy Biggert will be very competitive in 11, and Dold hasn’t attracted a tier 1 challenger.
Dems in Illinois will still out hustle and out strategize the opposition, but they have to be worried.
Comment by Adam Smith Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 9:58 am
Bill, while Rod did win Effingham County rather substantially, I cannot find the results for Shumway.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 10:00 am
–These results aren’t surprising at all. Afterall, the dominating vote in Illinois is Cook County which, for the most part, is an uneducated voter base who votes how they’re told or by race.–
We so stoopid up here. Build 4th largest metro economy in word cuz so stoopid. Big, privately financed skyline, through stoopid. Stoopid engine of state and midwest. My brain hurts so uneducated.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 10:00 am
there’s certainly excitement around Cain now, but with excitement comes more scrutiny.
I think Illinois republican voters deserve some credit here; or at least 10% of them do. It is still fairly early; not everyone watches the debates like we cap fax readers do.
Romney polling within 8% of Obama. Cain 12%. Perry 18%. This shows that republican voters do see differences and the more moderate republicans are willing to go Obama rather than one of the more conservative candidates.
Comment by Robert Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 10:06 am
Every Republican number in the all the polls is diluted by the depth of the Republican field, even the head to head match ups. Once the we pared back the numbers a bit, Republican numbers will begin to make more sense.
On the other hand, Obama’s numbers are plain weak, 15% below his election results. In his home state. Dominated by Democrats. With an unclear Republican field. Yoikes. I have been saying for a couple of years that the results in 2012 will be negatively effected by Obama, perhaps significantly diluting the gerrymandered maps.
As far as the Republican preference numbers, right now the party is not unified, but Obama will take care of that for us. Dislike of Obama, nationally, will overcome dislike of any one Republican candidate. Right now, don’t be surprised by the numbers for some of the people, I’m thinking Newt here. I am a proponent of a large early field of candidates, with widely varying opinions, even if some aren’t “electable”. Guys like Paul and Cain have us talking about overhaul of the tax system. Bachmann has us talking about women’s issues. Santorum leads the right-to-life people. If you didn’t have these folks in the debate, imagine the milquetoast crud we’d be hearing. These disparate views hone and sharpen the eventual winner’s platform and performance. Heck they may even shape policy. The Democrats will not benefit at all from the primary season, because this President will not be challenged within his own party which will be required to march lockstep to his policies.
Comment by Cincinnatus Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 10:28 am
–Guys like Paul and Cain have us talking about overhaul of the tax system. Bachmann has us talking about women’s issues. Santorum leads the right-to-life people. If you didn’t have these folks in the debate, imagine the milquetoast crud we’d be hearing.–
LMAO, yeah, it’s been a real Algonquin Round Table up to now.
Do you seriously think the eventual GOP nominee is going to have anything to do with Cain, Paul, Bachmann or Santorum? Why would they? The idea is to get elected; it s a game of addition, not an embrace of the fringe.
What are Bachmans’s “women’s issues,” that “have you talking?” Sounds like an episode of “The View.”
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 10:45 am
Wow, Perry’s numbers are truly terrible, just looking at the IL Republicans. What does it say, when you’re polling even with Newt Gingrich?
This nomination is Romney’s to lose: “Dated Cain, Married Romney.” And for the record I agree that the conservative base will eventually coalesce around Romney, as he and Huntsman are the only candidates in this field who might beat Obama. But as many have already pointed out, I’m just not sure I see conservatives going all-out for Romney, knocking on doors and organizing the neighborhood block for him.
Comment by ZC Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 10:58 am
==I cannot find the results for Shumway.==
Nobody voted that day.
Comment by Bill Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 11:33 am
Cain is pumping up his book hype (soon to be released, no doubt). He’s high in the polls, as were all the others, more as a “I’m disgusted with what we have to challenge Obama with…” The wrong Bush got in last time….Jeb will be a good one.
Comment by GMatts Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 11:53 am
I would be curious to see in the internals what the breakdown was by party affiliation of Presidential and Gubernatorial approval ratings. Obviously Republicans will have a high disapprove rating, but what about self-described Democrats? I would posit that a number of Democrats would not be happy with Obama given Leonard’s remark that the sample size of Republicans was relatively small.
Comment by Ryan from Carrollton Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 12:26 pm
Shumway is located in Banner Township, which is all one precinct, so there would be no separate results.
Comment by steve schnorf Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 12:38 pm
BTW, McCain carried Banner more than 2-1, and I’m certain the voters in Shumway turned out.
Comment by steve schnorf Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 12:44 pm
==which is all one precinct==
lol
Comment by Bill Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 12:52 pm
Romney is the default candidate.
With the President so weak Romney is good enough.
The GOP would rather have someone else.
But if no one else looks good, they will take Mitt for the win.
Because they want a win above everything else.
They are taking their time?
The election is Nov 2012.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 6:03 pm
This survey reinforces why the political primary system is idiotic in America. Why should Republican voters in Illinois get to help select the candidate, when everyone knows the state is going Democratic in the next election?
Voters in swing states should have their primary votes magnified, and voters in one party dominated states should have their votes minimized.
Silly me — common sense and political processes have never been overlapping…
Comment by Capital View Thursday, Oct 20, 11 @ 9:33 pm