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* At least ten people are interested in replacing Democrat Brad Harriman on the 12th Congressional District ballot. Whomever is chosen will face Republican Jason Plummer in the fall.
I’m hearing this name a lot these days…
With the Democratic Party in the process of selecting a candidate to replace Brad Harriman in the 12th Congressional District race, State Rep. John Bradley, D-Marion, said he is considering a run at the seat.
Bradley said he has been approached by several people about the possibility of running, but declined to comment on who approached him.
“I am considering it, and I ultimately want to do what’s in the best interest of my children and the people of Southern Illinois and the Metro East,” Bradley said.
St. Clair and Madison counties have the weighted vote here, but Bradley could be a strong candidate. He has his downsides, including that income tax hike vote.
* This is not completely true…
Locally the names heard the most are Bradley and Illinois State Senator Gary Forby (D-Benton). Others include former U.S. Congressman David Phelps, of Eldorado and Lt. Governor Sheila Simon. None of these potential candidates have yet indicated an interest
Forby? The House and Senate Democrats have spent millions keeping him in office over the years. I doubt the DCCC will want that burden. Phelps definitely expressed a strong interest when I talked to him. Simon did not when I talked to her last week. Bernie has more on Simon…
Could there be a rematch between Lt. Gov. SHEILA SIMON and businessman JASON PLUMMER?
Plummer, of Fairview Heights, the 2010 GOP nominee for lieutenant governor, is now the Republican candidate for the U.S. House in the new 12th Congressional District.
The winner of the Democratic primary in that district, BRAD HARRIMAN of O’Fallon is dropping out of the race because of a worsening neurological condition that he says requires surgery.
Names being bandied about as a possible replacement for Harriman on the ballot include Simon, whose late father, PAUL SIMON, was lieutenant governor, a member of the U.S. House and, later, the U.S. Senate.
Simon told me she knows people have been talking about the idea. But she also said the talk seems to her “way more inflated than it deserves.”
“Just looking at it from the really personal point of view, it’s challenging to be working on a statewide basis,” she added. “It means a lot of time away from my husband. … Thinking about being even farther away doesn’t appeal too much.”
She went even further when she talked to me, saying she was approached about running for the seat last year and turned it down and hadn’t really changed her mind yet.
* And then there’s this option…
Belleville attorney William Enyart, adjutant general of the Illinois National Guard, confirmed Friday he was approached by 12th District Democrats to run for Congress in November in place of Brad Harriman.
Enyart said he is considering whether to run for the office, but, as of now, is undecided.
“I have had some people approach me and I think that is a great compliment,” Enyart said. “I plan to sit down with my wife and family to discuss it.”
Enyart is married to retired St. Clair County Circuit Judge Annette Eckert. He said he was called about 5 p.m. Wednesday about the position, a day after Harriman announced he would drop out of the race for health reasons. He wouldn’t reveal who spoke with him.
* These three are out…
So far, a number of other names have surfaced as potential Democratic candidates. However, three prominent Democrats, St. Clair County Board Chairman Mark Kern, state Rep. Jerry Costello II and former state Rep. Jay Hoffman, all have said they are not interested in the job.
* Charlie Cook has this district as a toss-up. Cook has also moved the 17th District from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss up.” From a press release…
Following a recent Public Opinion Strategies poll that showed U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling (R-Colona) with a 16 point lead over his opponent, Alderwoman Cheri Bustos (D-East Moline), the Cook Political Report, a prominent political analysis website, has changed its rating for the Illinois 17th District from “Lean Democratic” to “Toss Up.”
Jon Schweppe, communications director for Bobby Schilling for Congress, said that financial support from extreme special interest groups like EMILY’s List won’t be enough to deliver the race to Bustos.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 1:53 pm
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Bill Enyart is the one.
Comment by wilecoyote Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 2:04 pm
2 things,
It’s funny to hear someone in Shilling’s office talk about “extreme special interest groups,” hello, tea party?
Enyart would make this very very hard to win for the Republicans. Silver spoon kid vs. a General. I know who my money would be on.
Comment by Ahoy! Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 2:13 pm
Cook is off-base.
Shilling’s own poll showed his job approval in the low 40’s. He’s not circling the drain yet, but he’s in trouble.
Simon might not be a great fit for that district when it comes to guns, abortion and taxes. The upside is the her family name is gold in that area.
Anyone know how much Quinn lost that area by in 2010? If he got less than 40%, Simon is out.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 2:18 pm
Bradley would be a Dem star in Washington, with his “I’m just a simple country lawyer” schtick. He’s a sharp guy.
Comment by mark walker Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 2:18 pm
@mark walker-
Agreed. Bradley does a great Jimmy Stewart.
Sounds to me like he’s in. Why else mention the Metro-East?
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 2:20 pm
PS: Did the GOP file a candidate against Bradley?
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 2:21 pm
===PS: Did the GOP file a candidate against Bradley? ===
Yes
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 2:24 pm
If you add up the totals of the 3 candidates by county in the 2012 12th CD Democratic primary this is the weighted vote by county:
ALEXANDER 0.65%
FRANKLIN 10.48%
JACKSON 5.72%
JEFFERSON 7.23%
MADISON 11.53%
MONROE 2.78%
PERRY 2.09%
PULASKI 0.56%
RANDOLPH 7.34%
ST. CLAIR 39.79%
UNION 4.24%
WILLIAMSON 7.59%
Madison and St. Clair can pick this one on their own if they want, which seems the most likely scenario.
Comment by The Captain Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 3:41 pm
YDD: Quinn-Simon won St. Clair and Jackson Counties in 2010. Those two counties make up at least 40-45% of the new 12th CD. East St. Louis will always make St. Clair County a near impossibility for a Republican to win.
Enyart would pose the biggest threat to Jason. Granted, Rep. Bradley has the campaign experience, but Enyart is the Adjutant General of the National Guard. And the last time I checked - even with the economy doing poorly - international and defense issues are still of major concern. Remember - Scott Air Force Base is in this district.
Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 3:43 pm
I am kind of surprised that Board Chairman Mark Kern is not interested. After all, that is what springboarded Congressman Costello.
Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 3:45 pm
Where in the heck were all these candidates back in November? Nearly everyone named is better than the crop that actually ran.
Comment by ILPundit Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 4:06 pm
@Team Sleep -
Yes, I know SAFB is in the district. And, last time I checked, the largest “employer” downstate. That might have changed.
My experience, however, is that there aren’t many swing voters in the military. The uniform mostly helps with older vets, which I’m sure there are plenty of.
The beauty of being a military lawyer is that reporters don’t have access to your court records!
The downside is that unless you’re Mark Kirk, you have to adhere to all of those pesky rules about not mixing your campaign with your military duties.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 4:08 pm
Bradley is by far the best candidate. I sincerely think he he enjoys his current position as a State politician and chair of Revenue, but the Speaker is getting up there in years - which could be good or bad.
The STAR bonds bill that he landed for Marion was impressive politically - it would be interesting to see him on the federal level. I dont see him as a wall fly, no matter where he is. I suppose it depends on time away from family.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 4:34 pm
Bradley, Phelps, and the others have NO chance if Enyart gets in. He’s a major general in command of about 20,000 IL Nat’l Guard troops. Presumably he has a clean record and background. He has no legislative votes to explain and get beat up over. He will get the star treatment, money and staffing included,from the DCCC. (How many generals are running for Congress as Democrats and how badly do they want to get a guy like him on the national circuit?)You don’t think that the GOP and Plummer dread the contrast between young, inexperienced Jason and General Enyart? Can you imagine the debates between those two? (Enyart is also an experienced lawyer)
Comment by Just Sayin' Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 4:50 pm
Guys, John Bradley is not going to be Speaker. There will not be a Speaker from the Democratic Majority that comes from downstate. Anyone who suggests a candidate who is not from Chicago or Suburban Cook is smoking crack.
Comment by ILPundit Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 4:53 pm
Running against an Illinois National Guard Major General ain’t beanbag.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 5:07 pm
The primary nomination and the seat are Enyart’s for the taking.
He suffers from the same downside that Tammy Duckworth has–Enyart is a Blagojevich appointee. But he’s still a shoo in against Jason “Vapor lock” Plummer.
Comment by Vet Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 7:12 pm
Ahoy! said:
“It’s funny to hear someone in Shilling’s office talk about “extreme special interest groups,” hello, tea party?”
The tea party does not advocate violence, unlike the extremist organizations that are supporting Cheri Bustos.
Comment by anon Tuesday, Jun 5, 12 @ 8:23 pm
Even with all of the big campaign money being dropped Forby’s way, I’m still stumped about how he gets re-elected. Money can buy votes - true. BUT the people I talk to in Southern Illinois think the guy is a french fry short of a Happy Meal and sounds like it every time he opens his mouth. He’s a lousy example of education in that region of the state. Besides, I’m not sure he could find his way to Washington, D.C. No, it won’t be Forby. The only person who thinks it will be is Gary Forby.
Comment by Little Egypt Wednesday, Jun 6, 12 @ 12:30 am
Despite my natural inclination towards another, you folks have me sold on the strategic advantage of Enyart. I think the tipping point was imagining the debates, and how Plummer just might blubber like a baby onstage.
@Anon@8:23
Hallelujah, the clouds have lifted and I can see the light! You have converted me!
/snark
Comment by Colossus Wednesday, Jun 6, 12 @ 9:23 am