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I’m probably going on vacation starting tomorrow, so this could be the last question of the day for a while.
Let’s take a crack at the hot congressional races around the state. How do you think these races (Bean, Roskam, etc.) will play out? Are there any sleeper races? Who is the most likely to lose? To win?
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 4:58 am
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Kirk will win but not by much.
Comment by ChiliMan Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 5:41 am
In the 8th, Bean may win a close race, but in any event, no matter who wins, the true losers will be the constituents, who have lacked any real representation for decades. Crane? Totally useless. Bean? Sells the constituents down the river on behalf of special interests. McSweeney? Typical right-wing fringe. I’ll leave this one blank.
Comment by NoMilkForMe Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 6:02 am
Bean beats McSweeney, and Roskam beats Duckworth. No seats change hands.
Comment by T.J. Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 7:30 am
Apparently the polls show Shimkus (R-19) as comfortably ahead. Kind of odd considering his flip-flop on term limits, participation in skyrocketing the debt/deficit and support for an unpopular war. Shimkus lives in the more populated area of the district which gave him an advantage over his last two opponents that he does not have this time. Maybe Danny Stover could ride a wave at election time.
Comment by Blues Clues Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 8:21 am
If you get a Democratic wave nationally, it is likely that the 11th, 15th and 19th Congressional Districts come into play. In the 6th District, Duckworth still faces an uphill fight due to voter resentment over Rahm Emanuel’s tactics in the primary on Duckworth’s behalf (we may not be talking about a significant number of voters, but certainly enough to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory).
Comment by Randall Sherman Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 9:04 am
Just to clarify my geography…I’ll admit that Centralia isn’t metro-east but it’s a lot closer than Eldorado or Olney.
Comment by Blues Clues Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 9:05 am
I think the sleeper race here is Kirk v. Seals. Seals is the kind of candidate who could surprise an incumbent in a year like this.
Comment by Bardo Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 9:23 am
Oh yay, this is my time to talk about the great 3rd district race. Go Spanky Go!…. Yeah, and Kirk will win by more than just a little. It should be a ten point margin. Roskam looks good to win over Duckworth but Bean could prove to be a problem for McSweeney. Maybe I say this because I never liked McSweeney, but odds are any incumbent gets reelected. The seventeenth district looks very interesting… I think Zinga might be able to win… it really just depends on what the democrats do now….
Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 9:26 am
1. Bean wins by at least 53-47. She is an independent Democrat and is a rising star. She is the future of the Democratic Party. She is a rare talent.
2. Duckworth will scrape by over Roskam, due to changing demographics.
PREDICTION: Teamsters endorsement HURTS Roskam, shows Duckworth to be a new-breed Democrat free from old liberal establishment. When was the last time that the war vet was the Democrat and the Teamster’s candidate was the Republican?
3. Kirk over Seals, but Kirk revealed to be vulnerable. The seat will attract a top notch opponent in 2008.
4. Zinga loses. She’s a lightweight.
Comment by Skeeter Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 9:52 am
Lovie’s Leather, what would give you the thought that Zinga has a chance? She lost by 65,000 votes (22%) in 2004 - to a man that was nearly comotose and never had to campaign. Certainly this showed a degree of strength by Evans, but it appears to have shown more about Zinga, didn’t it?
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 10:12 am
Kirk over Seals (big win);
Bean over McSweeney;
Roskam over Duckworth.
Comment by Just Observing Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 10:30 am
All of the incumbents will win. Illinois is a severely gerrymandered state and there’s no shot for any under-funded candidates to “ride the wave” and use Nancy Pelosi’s already-tired talking points to victory or for Republican challengers in Dem districts to pray that their respective incumbents screw up. People who think Shimkus is vulnerable don’t know the district. Shimkus works the district well, is very visible and likeable and represents the core values of the 19th quite well. The Dems cannot run a pro-choice, progressive candidate who can’t raise money and hope to win in the 19th and the 15th. Remember, a lot of military families reside in both districts, and you can’t assume that a military parent/wife/brother/sister is going to vote against a pro-war candidate. It just won’t happen. Bean won’t lose because she has staked a moderate claim. Roskam will win because he has Hastert on his side. Don’t underestimate Mr. Speaker’s influence.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 11:01 am
6th - Roskam over Duckworth - spending will be huge, Roskam by 6 pts
8th - McSweeney over Bean - spending will be huge, McSweeney by 2 pts (this district, now rid of Crane, will go back to its Republican leanings) by the way, wonder who Bean will vote for, considering she is in the 6th CD — Roskam? or Ducky?
10th - Kirk wins big — its a liberal district, and he is liberal, plus he is highly respected. He’ll probably be our next Republican Senator in 5 years, if Shimkus doesnt knock out Durbin first.
And, Zinga will probably win — she has been proven right, Lane Evans can’t serve the district anymore and she will be better known than any opponent
In short, GOP will pick up 2 congressional seats in Illinois…………….
Biggest blower…. Schakowsky, even while her husband is under house arrest, will crush her opponent. I’ve got 5 bucks that the “Republican” doesn’t make it over 15% in that district. what a clown.
Comment by Sage Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 12:11 pm
Speaking of clowns. Ray “Spanky the Clown” Wardingly has my vote in the 3rd district and I’m a life long dem. Don’t think it will amount to much but if the Little Lip doesn’t get at least 70% of the vote against a clown he will be in trouble in the future.
Comment by anon Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 12:23 pm
This should always be taken into consideration when voting- http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/enron_the_smartest_guys_in_the_room/
Comment by Enron Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 12:39 pm
If the national Dems play aggressively no Illinois Republican will break 65%.
Hastert will resign after the election creating a special election in 2007.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 12:42 pm
I guess people just don’t know Mark Kirk yet, the Seals campaign is going to have work to move the message beyond the Democratic base, but it won’t be hard. You may remember Mark Kirk from such Bush Administration failures like the Iraq War, Privatizing Social Security, Part D, and the so called partial birth abortion ban. Oh yeah, and he’s voted 85% of the time with DeLay and Hastert. There really is no such thing as a moderate Republican in Washington, they’ve all been 100% on board with the President who has 31% approval ratings. Kirk is afraid to debate, he’s held maybe one public meeting in the last year, and all the Jewish groups that he has relied on for support are jumping ship.
Also, he’s apparently hired the Swift Boat people to run his campaign. Some initial polling showed him totally in the can on issues like Iraq and Terri Schiavo, and that was 9 months ago. He can try to change the subject with his suburban strategy, but voters are going to be paying attention to the big issues like gas prices and the fact that their parents are getting taxed by the drug companies and insurance companies through Part D.
And don’t even get me started on fiscal responsibility.
Mark Kirk is casualty #1 in what even the NRCC is predicting to be a big year of losses in Congress for the Republicans.
Seals wins with 58% of the vote.
Comment by Kirk is Weak and Scared Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 12:44 pm
Kirk is weak and scared: 58%!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You either work for Dan Seals or know nothing about politics.
Comment by Just Observing Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 1:04 pm
blues clues. you have no clue. shimkus will win the district with 65% plus vote. last elelction he won with abut 68% of vote. join another campaign and blog for them, if you want to have any credibilty at all.
Comment by ron Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 1:05 pm
I’m just reading the tea-leaves. Kirk hasn’t had a serious opponent since his first election. How does Kirk defend his postion on the war? He’s been an unabashed supporter of the administration. This district has also gone Democratic in the last 3 Presidential elections, and there are more Democrats elected in his area now than there were when he was first elected. The NRCC is resigned to losing seats. This is the type of seat they are going to lose.
Comment by Kirk is Weak and Scared Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 1:08 pm
Blagojevich likes anti-Blagojevich shirt
The Associated Press
URBANA — Gov. Rod Blagojevich could have been snippy. He could have been terse.
Instead, he had some fun with a group of College Republicans who came out to his appearance at the University of Illinois yesterday.
The group wore blue T-shirts emblazoned with an anti-Blagojevich slogan (”Blagojevich sucks”) to protest a decision that could put some of the Illinois Student Assistance Commission’s student loan portfolio up for sale.
The governor announced the program and touted its potential to provide student aid to more students. Then he looked at the College Republicans and said he wanted a T-shirt.
In Blagojevich’s words, “I promise you if I get a blue one like that, I’ll wear it when I go out jogging.”
The College Republicans quickly handed up a blue T-shirt and posed for pictures with the governor.
Comment by Newshound Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 1:46 pm
Ronald: I’m appalled that the “I’ve never won an election” Cegelis Democrats in the 6th continue to refuse to back Duckworth. It is time for them to suck it up, admit that they lost, and get on board. This district can be won by a Duckworth, but not if this attitude persists. The cynic in me says Roskam has someone on the payroll stirring them up. To my neighbors in the 6th, I say don’t let yourself be used by Sherman or Roskam. Support Duckworth.
Comment by Anon sequitur Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 1:57 pm
Maybe the Seals campaign poster can elaborate on this swift boat suggestion. Who from swift boats is running Kirk’s campaign?
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 1:57 pm
Bean hangs on with 52%.
Roskam wins with 55+.
Kirk stays above 60%. You folks forget he’s already got Planned Parenthood’s endorsement…Seals will have to fight for his base.
Comment by neverforget Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 2:00 pm
All the seats will probably stick with the incumbent party by at least a reasonably significant margin… with maybe one exception.
McSweeney has a 50/50 shot of beating Bean.
After that, there probably will not be any turnover, but I would say the Republicans chances of picking up the 17th are at least as good as Duckworth’s chances of beating Roskam in the 6th. In 2008, the 17th will be the race to watch.
As for the 10th district, where I live, Mark Kirk is going to face his strongest opponent for reelection yet, but he is still going to win with about 58 percent of the vote, at minimum.
Democrats here really like Kirk, and they tend to be the type of people who will go out of their way to find one Republican to vote for just so they can claim that they are not straight-ticket voting hacks.
After that, there probably will not be any turnover, but I would say the Republicans chances of picking up the 17th are at least as good as Duckworth’s chances of beating Roskam in the 6th. In 2008, the 17th will be the race to watch.
As for the 10th district, where I live, Mark Kirk is going to face his strongest opponent for reelection yet, but he is still going to win with about 58 percent of the vote, at minimum.
Democrats here really like Kirk, and they tend to be the type of people who will go out of their way to find one Republican to vote for just so they can claim that they are not straight-ticket voting hacks. Kirk is the one Republican that they usually choose to vote for, although they might vote for him and Topinka this year.
Comment by Establishment Republican Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 2:23 pm
Stockwell is getting out out of 17th CD contest and endorsing Sullivan. whoopie.
Comment by annie Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 2:55 pm
10: Seals beats Kirk but only barely almost 51/49.
11: Pavich gets large help late and ousts a weak and completely compromised Weller - the “throw the bums out” message plays well in that District.
6: Roskam huge because Rahm was way off in his Iraq Uber Alles approach to candidating.
8: Bean keeps it but the margin is less than 55/45.
Comment by Eric the Red Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 3:42 pm
I know Zinga didn’t do well last election. Who cares?! Evans was god. In 2004, there were so many freakin Evans signs next to Bush Cheney signs! Many of them are now Zinga voters. Should she have just given up after not winning?! Did George W win his first run at congress? No! Did Newt Gingrich win his first two times he ran? No! She can win… but it is out of her hands… it is in the hands of the 17th district dems. Maybe she wins, maybe she doesn’t… I am just saying that she has a chance…. By the way… Mark Kirk, no way in hell this guy loses his seat. Look for him to run for governor one day. You read it here first….
Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 3:49 pm
Kirk has a bright future ahead of him but I think he is more federally minded. Perhaps he might run for the Senate, and perhaps he just wants to build up seniority in the House. I don’t really see him running for Governor, but who knows.
Comment by Establishment Republican Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 4:28 pm
The race to watch is the Weller vs Pavich race. The biggest sleeper race in Illinois. The demographics have made huge switches in the last 5 years. Weller has never been challenged since Balanhoff, which was still only a slight challenge.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 4:45 pm
Do you think Joe Shannon has a chance to beat Biggert?
Comment by Longshot? Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 4:46 pm
Weller hangs on, he delivers the goods to his district and is friendly w/organized labor.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 8:01 pm
Zinga had 58% of the Republican primary voters vote against her - and she ran in 2004 (so had the name recognition). Republicans don’t like her, Independents don’t like her and Democrat’s definately don’t like her.
She’ll get her lunch handed to her regardless of who the Democrats put forth…
Comment by zinged again Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 9:17 pm
Roskam wins big. It’s a Republican District. Democrats are divided. Roskam has picked up some Dem support in this Republican District. Case closed.
McSweeney wins handily over Bean. Very Republican District. McSweeney hitting on issues, put together great grassroots organization. People here said in primary he wouldn’t get even 10%. McSweeney wins. Deal with it.
Kirk wins by surprisingly narrow margin. District IS trending Democrat. Unless the national climate changes, Kirk could be in the fight of his life. It’s a longshot, but Kirk could lose.
Zinga wins by narrow margin. Dems are deeply divided. Rank and file resents party bosses trying to put the fix in. Evans was the glue that held Dems together in this unwieldy district. Dems made huge push to rally round Evans in ‘04, delivering 60,000 more votes than normal. They needed to. Zinga produced 30,000 more votes than Reps. normally do. She can duplicate her performance. Dems can’t. One of the two hottest races to watch.
The upset special: Pavich beats Weller. Bad national climate for the GOP, Weller has his own problems, it all adds up to a surprising defeat.
Comment by The Watcher Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 10:03 pm
Seals is the latest Kool-Aid Kid.
Comment by T.J. Thursday, May 11, 06 @ 4:18 am
Zinga produced no votes, Bush v. Gore produced votes. In fact, 40,000 people voted for Bush and DID NOT vote for Zinga - again, showing that the Republican base and Independents do not even support her.
She is toast, even against the Democrats weakest link, Hare. The other possible options, Sullivan or Schweibert will just kill her (by Evans-like numbers, if not worse).
Comment by zinged again Thursday, May 11, 06 @ 7:00 am
Evans-Novak Political Report (out on the 10th) states that the only Illinois races in play…
Democrat Seat “at Great Risk” - Illinois 8th
Republican Seat “at Moderate Risk” - Illinois 6th
They see all other seats as not in play.
Comment by zinged again Thursday, May 11, 06 @ 7:04 am
Are you from the 17th, Zinged Again? You seem a little panicky. Generals lose battles when they keep fighting the last war and politicians lose when they think this election is the same as the last. And when has Evans-Novak ever caught a surprise? Their report could be run by a computer. Simply start with base party affiliation, factor in any recent base trends, and ignore anything that’s actually happening on the ground. But keep posting and maybe you’ll at least convince yourself.
Comment by The Watcher Thursday, May 11, 06 @ 7:47 am
If anyone needed a reason why Kirk will not lose, I just found this blog on Seals. The 10th might lean Democrat but it’s not a liberal district.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, May 11, 06 @ 8:09 am
If anyone needed a reason why Kirk will not lose, I just found this blog on Seals. http://danseals.blogspot.com. The 10th might lean Democrat but it’s not a liberal district.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, May 11, 06 @ 8:09 am
The 10th District is a district that should be independent. For all of Kirk’s wish to be perceived as a “moderate” — what does that mean? He’s just shrewd — he sees the Republican party’s rhetoric loses in the suburbs — so he does research to find the right words, not the right policies. His agenda introduces fear into the suburbs — scary gangs, scary internet people going after our computer-addicted children! How ridiculous. Suburban Americans are looking for responsible governance, something that pretty words cannot hide. The Republican policy of irresponsibly cutting taxes for wealthy Americans means that we can no longer afford to work for solutions to common problems — like healthcare, the environment, etc. This is exactly what the Republican agenda is — and that’s why Hastert is endorsing Kirk’s plan. Not because Kirk has brought the Republicans to their knees and made them accountable to us — but because he is so clever and has new words and concepts to frighten us suburbanites into submission.
The 10th is a great district. We deserve GREAT leadership. We deserve Dan Seals — he has the intelligence and the independence to find solutions to the problems of the national debt, to find a responsible energy policy, to fund healthcare for innocent children who cannot chose their parents, to respect a woman’s right to get healthcare and yes, use contraception, to be sure that we protect the environment and do not allow private companies to profit using our public resources — and on and on. Kirk won’t do this. Dan Seals will. This is not a partisan issue — it’s an American issue. Let’s save our country!
Comment by Lucky Mom Thursday, May 11, 06 @ 9:22 am
The Watcher [Wednesday, May 10, 06 @ 10:03 pm] said:
“Roskam wins big. It’s a Republican District. Democrats are divided. Roskam has picked up some Dem support in this Republican District. Case closed.”
Democratic support? You mean the Teamsters? Sure, that will play well to the Republican base. They can come out in November to vote for raving liberal Judy Baar Topinka and for the Teamster’s choice for Congress.
Friends like that will keep a lot of Republicans home.
Comment by Skeeter Thursday, May 11, 06 @ 9:47 am
Weller hasn’t been challenged since Ballanhoff? What about last year’s election against Renner? I know the percentages weren’t THAT close but Renner received a lot of money from the DCCC, had a fairly large campaign staff and attacked Weller–
Comment by anon Thursday, May 11, 06 @ 10:15 am
Don Johnston is talking about putting off the 17th CD voting to sometime in late June.
Problems with the vote totals per precinct.
Comment by whattttttttttttttttttttttttttt Thursday, May 11, 06 @ 12:53 pm