Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Duckworth and Roskam tied?
Next Post: Rates going up
Posted in:
The pollster’s analysis:
In a general election held in Illinois today, 5/23/06, incumbent Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich edges Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka by 6 points, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis. Blagojevich gets 43% to 37% for Topinka. 15% would vote for some other candidate. 4% are undecided. Blagojevich leads 5:1 among Democrats. Topinka, who is Illinois State Treasurer, leads 7:1 among Republicans. Independents are split. Women favor Blagojevich by 17 points. Men favor Topinka by 4 points. Blagojevich wins in Chicago and suburban Cook County. Topinka wins in the Collar Counties and Downstate. The election is on 11/7/06.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 9:36 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Duckworth and Roskam tied?
Next Post: Rates going up
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
If you are the incumbant and a poll shows you only 6 points ahead of a challenger with 15% looking to vote for another candidate, reality says you are behind. If that 15% is not in your column, you will need to spend every dime to smear and slander your opponent to make them look so bad that 15% will saddle up with you.
Also consider that you have spent several millions running ads that haven’t moved you in the polls, while your opponent hasn’t advertised at all. Factor in that you are coming off a General Assembly session that your party dominated and supported your campaign promises legislatively. The media even reported you as the “winner” during these sessions.
You will face a long hot summer with federal investigations making news, your opponent reaching out to her natural base constituency, and your opponent’s ads running on television, highlighting the negative news coming out in these investigations.
My advice: keep playing governor, be the best campaigner you can be, and smear and slander Topinka with everything you have. Grey Davis won, then lost after he turned everyone off during the 2002 election, you can win this way too, and not worry about getting thrown out by Arnold a year later. You just have to keep watching the FBI, Lisa Madigan and all those other scandals waiting to be uncovered and exposed.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 9:48 am
Only 4% undecided in mid-May? Sounds fishy.
Comment by Bubs Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 9:59 am
Looks like JBT needs to pay more attention to the suburbs, a substantial proportion of whose residents are paying astronomical property taxes which will not be reduced with Blago’s lottery shell game proposal should it be enacted.
Looks like she has to win the burbs to win…she doesn’t have a chance in Chicago. They’ll all vote for the Machine.
Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 10:12 am
And I see the inevitable truth now.
Comment by Tim Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 10:16 am
The poll was just conducted 4 days ago… and is already horribly out of date. There is now no Meeks, there won’t be a Stufflebean (he won’t get enough signatures), and there will probably be a Rich Whitney (G). Oy… and it is survey usa… not exactly the best pollster….
Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 10:37 am
Vanilla,
Not sure what you’re paying attention to, but based on a whole slew of polls before the ads, Rod was consistently down by 4-6 points. He’s now up by six. Contrary to what you’re suggesting, ir sure seems like he’s picked up at least ten points since he began his media buy and is moving in the right direction if he wants to win. Maybe all of you that said his media was awful and the buy was a waste might want to rethink your tune…
Comment by ChicagoCynic Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 10:56 am
when do we decide whether rod’s early tv ads worked or not?
Comment by bored now Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 11:44 am
The Governor’s numbers seem to stay relatively consistent at 41-43%. It’s Topinka’s numbers that seem soft. The media buy would appear to have served to make her a questionable alternative, and she’s done nothing to date to dispel that idea.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 11:46 am
Even if Hot Rod is a couple of points ahead, big deal. A small lead for an incumbent spending big money in May? The GOP is not losing sleep over it.
A deeper issue is whether Blagojevich’s early strategy of aggressively attacking and “defining” JBT right after the Primary has succeeded. I would argue that it has not at all, or at best only a little. Rather than shift the unflattering spotlight of the press to Judy, Blago has repeatedly been forced to defend himself, and do damage control on new revelations in the papers. Now he has made a transparent political deal with Meeks, using Other People’s Money and shaky financial assumptions.
But has JBT yet been able to get strong traction by criticizing Blago? I vote No, but it is still early. The Red Fox is merely biding her time, as May is too early to roll out her policy initiatives. Plus, there appears to be LOTS more trouble ahead for the Governor to let play out. Napoleon said, “Never interrupt your opponent when he is making mistakes.” A collorary is “Never interrupt things with policy initiatives when your opponent is getting hammered by the press.”
Topinka will win in the end.
Comment by Bubs Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 11:50 am
Looks like the compare/contrast ads on AccordiOnGal hit the mark. I believe GRod is the only Midwest incumbent who is now leading.
Wonder how Judy Bore Topinka will counter?
Oh that’s right she renting out a big room so all the media can watch her prepare her super duper education plan.
Comment by Reddbyrd Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 11:59 am
Let’s see now a couple of weeks ago Rasmussen had JBT up by 6 now USA has Rod up by 6.Sorry but no one like this little weasel enough to give him a 12 point jump in about 3 weeks.I think the race has a third canidate and he is a Federal Prosecutor and he and Rod are running for the Grand Jury.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 12:05 pm
well, you should expect quite a bit of volatility in any polling done this far out. it’s interesting, because today, the Quinnipiac poll shows the likely democrat gubernatorial nominee in florida ahead, as well, when only last week a different poll showed a much different result. same thing has happened in california. (plus, different polling methodologies may also account for variations in results.) people who have paid attention to this kind of thing over time expect as much…
personally, i’m waiting for the fund-raising numbers, to see if the governor has maintained his vigorous fund-raising pace, and whether his attack ads had any impact on jbt’s fund-raising. i am surprised that the president is going to be coming to illinois to raise money for her…
Comment by bored now Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 12:26 pm
Wow, a Rod’s winning poll really gets you Judy lovers stirred up. The numbers don’t lie, remember?
I’m not sure what’s funnier, the fact that you people spin this as a good thing for Judy, or the fact that some of you actually believe the spin.
Oh well, if it makes you feel better….Man, this is great for Judy!
Comment by B Hicks Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 1:27 pm
Hicks, I agree. These people will never get over themselves, and they’ll start the song again next year.
Comment by Tim Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 1:41 pm
This is state more than trends democratic, it is democratic. Where does Judy go? Women? it looks like Rod’s ads and total focus the last several months has been on shoring them up. I’d say (and more importantly–survey USA) he is doing a fine job. Oh, and his education plan, guess, besides Meeks, that appeals to? Women! You knitpickers can blast Rod all you want about government, but us hacks LOVE his political operation. First class and they should come in bigtime winners.
Comment by Poltical Hack Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 1:55 pm
BUBS
JBT had better do something and quick. I live in Southern Illinois, not exactly Rod friendly country. People around here who normally vote REpub and are Conservative have no intention of voting for Judy. They won’t vote for Rod either. JBT had better decide what else to do other than complain that everything Rod does is bad and evil or she will lose….and lose big.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 1:59 pm
This is good for JBT..according to USA survey there is still 19% still out there, left for JBT to grab. By the way there is still 6 months to go and by then she may be up by 19%.
Comment by scoot Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 2:06 pm
Didn’t Rich Miller quote a poll late last week that showed Blago’s approval rating dropped 2 points after the commercials? If Blago backers think that was money well spent their nuts.
Comment by Merlin Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 2:16 pm
People are seeing Topinka’s way over her head and not fit to be Gov. 2 out of 3 Republicans recognized that in the Primary, and will be similar among the general electorate by November.
Meeks not running sealed her fate. She needed a spoiler in this race like she had Bill Brady in the primary.
I’m sure Blago will give her some job to let her round out her pension.
It’s just too bad voters have no good choices in this election.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 2:19 pm
Before you Blago-maniacs stick your chest out to far at 800 thousand a week he should be so far ahead of JBT she should be yesterday’s news.She’s still in there.Plus there is a new scandal and investigation every week and this Fed will not hold off till after the election if and when he gets it Blago’s burnt toast.I don’t know where ANON in So. Illinois but I live close to Carbondale and every one around here is pulling for JBT.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 2:40 pm
Not too surprising to see Rod up seventeen points with women as he continues to focus on a couple of issues very popular with women voters particularly in city and burbs, choice and gun control. Also universal access to pre-school and health care for children also plays well with women. Looks like even if Judy tries to play the “vote for me because I’m a woman card” she will struggle because she’s on the wrong side of issues most important to the large share of women voters in Illinois
Comment by ET Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 2:48 pm
Merlin, running negative ads against your opponent isn’t meant to pull your positives up, it is meant to drive their negatives up. And there is often a small residual drag on the negatives of the candidate running the ads.
Which is, well, kind of what happened now, isnt’ it?
Comment by SenorAnon Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 2:56 pm
Downstate
I am in the Vandalia-Centralia area. JBT may win this area but she will not get the votes of Conservatives I am talking to. Other areas of the state may be different, but not around here.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 3:04 pm
Hope is not a plan guys. VanillaMan, the 50% rule doesn’t work if your opponent has been elected statewide three times. Don’t forget that 63 % of people apparently don’t want to vote for JBT. Besides, who do you think that 15 % other is for? Possibly a black liberal Democrat? Definitely the GOP base.
Bubs, 4 % undecided standard for SurveyUSA (its just their methodology, nobody complained when they had Topinka up)and I would like to see your secret Topinka before/after ad campaign approval numbers if you are so sure the campaign isn’t working.
Once again, hope is not a plan. Your party already tried that with Iraq and it didn’t work out so well.
Comment by hope is not a plan Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 3:32 pm
Hello, I have never trusted the survey USA polls because of their methodology of 4% undecided. So according to this polls, since only 4% of voters are undecided, Rod has won the election, pack it up Judy, and go home. Right… Stupid poll, stupid methodology… I bet Rod loves Survey USA….
Comment by Lovie's Leather Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 3:45 pm
Hmmm…the Volkoh Conspiracy, a hard-right web site, compared 2004 state prez polls and found SUSA was the most accurate (http://volokh.com/posts/chain_1099961514.shtml)
The low undecided number is because they push people to choose. But time and again they’ve proven relatively accurate. Doesn’t mean the election is over today — just a snapshot.
But a pathetic lot of poo-pooing about polls today from those who don’t favor their results.
Comment by SenorAnon Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 4:00 pm
“… live close to Carbondale and every one around here is pulling for JBT.”
And the focus group of one returns.
Comment by SenorAnon Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 4:04 pm
Oh my goodness, you people are amazing.
The art of making much show with little substance.
Comment by B Hicks Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 4:06 pm
Hope is Not a Plan:
You may notice from past posts that I don’t put a whole lot of stock in any single poll, including this one. A few weeks ago three polls in a row had Judy with a narrow lead, albeit always in the margin of error. My point was that, contrary to the existing Democratic (and, I’m am disgusted to say, conservative Republican) spin that she didn’t have a chance, Judy was at least tied, if not leading, Blagojevich. (Rod must have believed it too, since he promptly burned up a few million in attack ads.) If more polls show Rod in the lead by six points after his attack ad blitz, I will accept that Judy has more work to do, but she will still win.
(BTW, YOUR party got us into Vietnam, and that didn’t work out too well, either. See? Dumb statements can go both ways. )
Comment by Bubs Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 4:09 pm
Rod political operation..first class… give me a break, Rod is a liar, and that will catch up with him. I, like most everyone else, think JBT needs to get off her rearend and get busy. But you know what, all that money and so little change in the polls, I believe Carter H. and McFadden actually know what they are doing, running a conservative campaign. I was told by an insider, set back and watch, they will be making a move shortly. Likewise they are also allowing Rod to stick his foot in his mouth, which we all know he has done and will comtinue to do so. It will be interesting. I have to take Judy and the Feds over Hot Rod and the Quinninator
Comment by dumb ol' country boy Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 4:22 pm
There is something else odd about this poll. Maybe someone can enlighten me. It’s the “Other” vote.
“Other” has 15% statewide. That seems high, but given Meeks, I could believe that - until I look at the regional breakdown.
While the City is 12% Other and Suburban Cook is 5% Other, the Collary Counties and Downstate, both areas where Judy should to well, each have have the same numbers: 21% for “Other”, with just 3% Undecided.
21%?? How so?
Comment by Bubs Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 4:40 pm
Bubs, you’re right. That’s 15% “other” is highly irregular. Did they offer “other” as an alternative? If so, offering “other” is not standard survey methodology. If they offered Meeks as an option, that makes the poll irrelevant since he’s no longer in the race. And given that early polling showed Meeks pulling more support from Topinka than Blago, it would likely put this race almost exactly where it was…dead even. And that’s a lot of money Blago spent to not really move his numbers much. The reality is, his numbers are static and he’s spent an awful lot of money already. But the big question will be can JBT actually raise any to challenge him.
Comment by Curious George Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 4:47 pm
Rod’s ads are helping him define Topinka, Topinka has not defended herself, but most importantly, George W. Bush is just about the most unpopular man in America. So, this poll is no surprise. I thought the last SurveyUSA poll was probably off because it was timed along with one of the worst media weeks the Governor has had in awhile.
Topinka can still sustain the negative ads for another month or so though, so Democrats shouldn’t be gloating just yet.
The bad news is, if Topinka puts a few million behind the right messages, Rod is extremely vulnerable. The good news is, the rest of the ticket has done such a wonderful job of distancing themselves from him (or visa versa), so if he does go down, he’s not taking anybody else with him. Except Wyma, Kelly and Rezko, of course.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 4:51 pm
By the way, Republicans who are hoping for a high level indictment in the Blagojevich administration need to find another campaign plan. U.S. Attorneys do not file major indictments at election time.
It’s not cricket, Baby.
My bet is that if Rod can get through July without any major indictments, he’s in the clear through Election Day. That’s not to say there won’t be scandals or low-level indictments, but Fitzgerald has way too much integrity and respect for his office to cast a political shadow over his efforts.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 4:54 pm
The pols and most of this discussion mean nothing right now. What does mean something is the education plan Blago proposed. I must say, I was surprised by it. I thought he would come out with a tollway sell off and he would be history. The lotto sell off gives him a chance-albeit slight. It is a much fairer revenue stream and although it is a ridiculous way of funding schools and fraught with flaws, it is far more palatable to suburbanites-where this election will be won or lost.
Comment by Merlin Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 4:56 pm
“… I don’t put a whole lot of stock in any single poll, including this one.”
Who does? Demagoguery by inference.
“contrary to the existing Democratic (and, I’m am disgusted to say, conservative Republican) spin that she didn’t have a chance,”
Again, who on God’s green earth said JBT “didn’t have a chance?” No credible person has said this.
“I believe Carter H. and McFadden actually know…”
Name dropper.
“I was told by an insider, set back and watch…”
Would that I had a nickel for every time someone anonymously wrote this on this blog. “Something’s gonna happen…just you wait.”
You think? Blagojevich has dominated the free media and the paid media. It stands to reason she’s got to get into the game sooner or later.
If the polls show anything, it’s that any dimestore prognosticator who tells you this thing is over one way or another is full of it.
Comment by SenorAnon Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 5:05 pm
I get so ticked off when people gloat over the polls, the huge warchest, etc., etc. but they can’t see that his policies are ruining this state financially. What matter if Blago gets re-elected if he is selling the state’s finances out from under him. He wants to sell the lottery and four years after than sale, what is he going to use to bolster education - HIS money?? I doubt it.
He proposes ideas that appeal to women. Who’s going to pay the freight? He has printed hundreds of thousands of pieces of literature, brochures, applications, etc. for his new programs with hardly any funding set aside for any of it and all the print shops around the state picking up the printing bill in their paltry budgets.
He is corrupt and is the Whimpy of Illiois state government - “I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.” He surrounds himself with corruption and thinks nothing of it. His clout list has one person who was given a 324% raise for someone finding him a job. People looking for a cure for cancer don’t get that kind of raise.
He can’t seem to stand up and do the honest thing, he’d rather scam and scheme to keep his chronies and himself in cash and power. And his ego knows no bounds. And all of you gloaters fall for his grifter’s schtick all the time. If you were getting flim-flammed by a furniture store, or the telephone company, you’d be squealing like stuck pigs. But the man who has his mitts on your hard-earned tax dollar is allowed run away with the store. Shame on all of you. And I voted for the scam artist.
Comment by Disgusted Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 5:46 pm
The BlagoBloggers like SenorAnon and Hicks are sounding very bitter of late. Personal attacks are the hallmark of a weak argument.
Comment by Bubs Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 6:24 pm
You’re right, Bubs. Blago supporters don’t stand a chance on this blog with you and DONWSATATE on the job.
It’s just so frustrating.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 6:53 pm
YDD…whatabout Scooter Libby?? It’s always election time. C’mon don’t you follow G-Rod?
Comment by scoot Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 9:52 pm
I am looking for a really sharp razor blade to slice my wrists in advance of this election. I am a Democrat and I have to hold my nose to vote for Blago. You just know that Speaker Madigan is going to lay down in Chicago this year for the GOTV on Blago, just like he did to Hartigan in 1990. Lisa Madigan for Guv in 2010.
Comment by Agoguy Wednesday, May 24, 06 @ 10:28 pm
Most people barely know Rod is governor, and could care less about November yet. Only politico’s are watching and listening this early and the only other people to listen to are other politico’s. It is way to early to declare victory for either side. I would suggest when the women of this state realize a woman is running for Governor, more of them will support Judy.
Comment by leigh Thursday, May 25, 06 @ 8:22 am
So, um, Bubs, perhaps you’d care to re-read my post, and then tell me what about it is bitter.
It’s the same old saw…agree with me and you’re right; disagree, and you’re a bitter partisan with something to gain or lose.
Truman said it best: “I don’t give them Hell. I just tell the truth about them and they think it’s Hell.” And while it’s certainly not that dramatic - the idea remains.
Comment by SenorAnon Thursday, May 25, 06 @ 11:41 am
SA - I don’t want to re-read your stuff - once was by far enough. Stop picking a fight on the blog.
Comment by Bubs Thursday, May 25, 06 @ 2:58 pm
Haven’t met a conservative Republican yet who’s voting for JBT this fall.
Comment by Veritas Thursday, May 25, 06 @ 10:08 pm
anon, get a clue. I have talked to democrats and republicans alike, and they are voting for judy. They tell me that the state is in real trouble and they are ready for a change. P.S this is the most distrusting administration that i have worked under in the 18 years of employement.
Comment by ironman Friday, May 26, 06 @ 1:33 am