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* National prognosticators are saying that Gov. Pat Quinn is favored to win reelection. From the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blog…
Although Mr. Quinn is the second most unpopular governor up for re-election in 2014, he is a Democrat in deep blue Illinois. If he runs, he is still considered a favorite to win re-election: the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and The Rothenberg Political Report rate the Illinois governor’s race, respectively, as leaning Democratic, likely Democratic and likely Democratic.
Despite Quinn’s terrible approval ratings, this is still a Democratic-leaning state. And 2014 doesn’t yet appear to be shaping up to be as horrible of a year for that party as 2010 was. So, those ratings are understandable.
Notice, however, that this is about a Democrat vs. a Republican. If Quinn is challenged in the primary, then all bets are off.
* The list…
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 9:49 am
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The issue is really that the GOP in Illinois has only person who can win a top ballot race statewide, and that person already has a good job.
The GOP is going to lose this one, and hopefully they will finally learn from it.
The party needs to get back to the moderate. If they do, Illinois will become purple. As long as the religious right seems to be in control of the GOP, Illinois will remain deep blue.
Comment by HaroldVK Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 9:53 am
Did TalingPointsMemo.com and/or Pollingreport.com poll the 50% or so Illinoisans who vote or the ones who didn’t vote?
Comment by Kasich Walker, Jr. Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 9:55 am
***If Quinn is challenged in the primary, then all bets are off.***
If? Bwahahahaha…
Comment by PublicServant Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 10:00 am
Geez….doesn’t this assume Quinn wins the nomination? But really, is it gonna matter who the Dems do nominate? This is a no-brainer.
Comment by Deep South Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 10:04 am
I don’t give much credence to national pundits. My team of pundits, me, myself and I, are convinced that Quinn will not be reelected. Not that he’ll be defeated by a Republican, Lisa will get him in the Democrat primary.
Unfortunately, the Illinois Republican party is a joke and it’s gubernatorial primary is shaping up to prove it once again.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 10:09 am
Oops, missed the notice. Obviously, I’m with the all bets are off side.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 10:12 am
norseman, Nate Silver is hardly a national pundit. His predictions are based on intense methodology (which he doesnt really share), but his accuracy has been unparalled. I agree on the national pundit thing, but youre just off base here.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 10:14 am
Lincoln chaffee could be the rare incumbent to lose 2 different statewide races running as the nominee of 2 different parties.
Scott Walker’s numbers are a lot better than quinns despite his state also going for obama against ryan and romney.
None of the illinois republicans have much to say for themselves and the kass column has started a narrative that bruce dold picked up on on chicago tonight friday and others have started to say in the chicago media about how the gop governors race is mostly guys who’ve been around for 30 years and are old news.
sabato is respected but still a uva poli sci professor who mostly reads other folks and doesn’t do his own on the ground reporting the way david broder does. He doesn’t interview candidates or talk to operatives the way team rothenberg does. His analysis is mostly from msm reading he does as well as other stuff from fellow poli sci professors.
Comment by Shore Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 10:18 am
I guess Nate could do a prediction of Quinn vs. Ahmadinejad whos accuracy could not be questioned, but so what? The primary is the whole show.
Comment by PublicServant Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 10:20 am
Just shocked someone has a larger disapproval rating than PQ. Is the opposition to Lincoln Chafee primarily because he is an independent now or due to a specific position that he has taken on an issue (or issues)?
Comment by Stones Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 10:20 am
2014 will be the 6th year of a Democratic Presidency, so history indicates that, nationwide, the Republicans should be well. Application to Pat Quinn is not that cut and dried. That historical trend helped Blagojevich in 2006. However, then again, Clinton did buck the trend in 1998, and in 2014 Hillary might build up “credits” like Nixon did in 1966.
Comment by Anyone Remember? Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 10:23 am
This is actually an encouragement that whomever the Democratic nominee is for Governor than its highly likely she will be elected in the fall.
Comment by Cassiopeia Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 10:33 am
Qow this got really be a downer for the IL GOPies….and a bit of a drag on fundraising
Fire,Aim,Ready
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 10:37 am
as usual, the primary is the thing in illinois. lisa should be able to knock quinn out in the primary, but what if one or two more dems make a run? even if it is head to head, issues like concealed carry, gay marriage, making the income tax increase permanent, budget cuts, are all divisive and cut differently across the geography. i just want an adult to win.
Comment by langhorne Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 10:45 am
Anon - 10:14 am, take a chill pill. I was being snarky about national pundits.
Most of the folks who post to this blog don’t need Silver’s methodology to know the odds are that the next governor will be a Democrat. Frustrated Oswego Willy has been doing his best to urge the Republicans to take action to remedy this situation.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 10:53 am
Lincoln Chaffee is a principled moderate, and the victim of just the kind of partisan politics we should be rejecting in this state. He was a Republican who was an environmentalist, supported gay marriage, had concerns about the death penalty, etc. He supported Obama. An interesting thoughtful person.
I don’t know if any local RI politics are playing into his disapproval rating. Disapproval ratings mean a lot politically but they don’t necessarily mean much about the governor.
Comment by Dan Bureaucrat Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 11:00 am
Chaffee cut pensions. Litigation underway…
Nate Silver just uses polling. With redistricting the real election is Spring 2014 Fall will be to see what happens in FL MI WI and so on
Comment by RNUG Fan Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 11:32 am
chaffee and the word principle do not go together. I understand it’s a midterm, but I think the public vented their spleens at obama in 2010. I’m not sure it’s going to be a particularly bad midterm for him.
Comment by Shore Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 11:41 am
Yes, sounds right, assuming Lisa doesn’t run. I don’t think a Daley would be well-received statewide, the name being synonymous with Machine politics, so it really depends on Lisa.
How sure are we, though, that she could beat a moderate Republican. There will be a lot of talk about concentration of power (unless her Dad resigns, which seems unlikely) and although I initially dismissed it, I’m now not so sure.
Nevertheless, with Hillary likely to run in 2016 and probably break that barrier, could Lisa be looking at a presidential run someday. If so, she needs to start somewhere higher than AG. Governor is a good place.
Comment by cassandra Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 11:44 am
I think the race is in the Dem primary, unless one of the GOP suspects is willing to stand up to to the social busybodies in the alleged “base.”
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 12:02 pm
Hey Rich, how ’bout a little dap for being the first commenter on that article and making your point for you?
——
Concerned Observer
Chicago
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This post doesn’t seem to take into account potential primary challenges. For example, here in Illinois, while the overall race may “lean Democratic”, there’s no guarantee Pat Quinn will be able to make it out of the Democratic primary. It’s expected that he’ll face several challengers, perhaps including popular Attorney General Lisa Madigan and former White House Chief of Staff William Daley.
Granted, a Democratic win doesn’t change the color of the statehouse regardless of which Democrat wins. But the post is asking which governors are vulnerable, not which parties could lose control.
April 8, 2013 at 1:06 p.m.
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Comment by Concerned Observer Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 12:49 pm
Shore,
Really, Chaffee isn’t principled? I’m just going by what I have heard about him going with convictions rather than sticking to the Republican extremists. Sounds like you know more than I do.
Comment by Dan Bureaucrat Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 2:08 pm
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/04/09/1200432/-Seriously-what-the-hell-is-Obama-thinking
Is BHO? He was the one that endorsed Chaffee over the democrat that year.
RI voted for an I and got one They are just no longer happy
Illinois voted for a democrat but did it get one?
For that matter how do you even define one BHO and Quinn But what do they stand for? Anything?
You must say this for the GOP I know what Joe Walsh stands for and I don’t like it BUT I also know what Don Moffit stands for . I just cant say that with the democrats
Comment by RNUG Fan Tuesday, Apr 9, 13 @ 6:11 pm