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* A month ago, at least some were saying that Speaker Madigan was pushing pension reform to help his daughter. Greg Hinz…
I conclude that major pension reform, though not guaranteed, is really moving now. And then, we can get to the inevitable legal challenges — and a race for governor by Mr. Madigan’s daughter, Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who really would like to be able to run without the race focusing on Daddy’s pension failure.
* Now, though, pension reform didn’t pass because of Lisa Madigan, according to several. Tribune…
The governor has been unable to win reforms even with Democrats holding veto-proof majorities in both the House and Senate, leading some at the Capitol to wonder whether the inaction is chaos by design as Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan weighs a possible primary election challenge to Quinn.
I, for one, don’t think that the Speaker wants his daughter to run for governor. Too much heat. Too much light. Too many problems.
But whatever the case, people just need to stop sucking their thumbs so much here. The truth is that if pension reform passed, it would be about Lisa. Now that it has failed, it’s about Lisa. People see exactly what they want to see.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:04 am
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I don’t believe the Speaker really wants his daughter to be Governor either (at least not YET).
Unless he sees a possibility of resolving some major problems, her administration would probably not be a successful one.
Comment by BleugrassBoy Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:07 am
Bill Daley is in the Tribune today complaining about inaction on pensions. The more I hear from Bill Daley the less I think Lisa Madigan is going to run.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:08 am
RICH
You are 100% correct in your assessment regarding Lisa and the Speaker.
Comment by MOON Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:09 am
Changing pensions it a big undertaking. To blame one person or even a hand full isn’t fair or realistic. Sure, Mike Madigan deserves more blame than others because he was in a leadership position for years but: others went along. Illinois politics is a failure. There’s a chance that real pension reform isn’t doable. What this means is pension checks in the future will either be severely cut or eliminated. Illinois will eventually go begging to Washington to float bonds to pay the pensions with the federal government guarantee behind those bonds. Anyway, the municipal bond market is becoming concerned that bondholder will take a full hair cut in a Chapter 9 court case. So, interest rates will be higher to represent the risk.
Comment by Steve Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:12 am
Illinois being a sovereign state and not a municipality is not covered by Chapter 9 of the Bankruptcy code nor any other chapter for that matter. It has something to do with being sovereign.
Comment by Bigtwich Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:20 am
One angle that I haven’t seen discussed anywhere is the relationship between Henry Bayer of AFSCME & MJM. The two clearly don’t like each other, and MJM has expressed frustration that the unions were late to the table in offering solutions to the pension mess. MJM would not allow the union backed SB 2404 to be voted on. He also blocked HB 212, which paid the back wages to state employees going back 2 years. The union for the last several months has been putting out continuous action alerts to call your state reps & senators. Sometimes, especially near the end of the session, we were getting emergency alerts to call twice a day. Clearly this “nagging” ticked off MJM. The pay raise bill was on the docket for 5/29. This was confirmed by staffs from 2 state reps. While one of our workers was on the phone with MJM’s staff it was suddenly pulled. This back pay issue is also costing the state money, lots of money. My guesstamate (not a math major) is around a million a month (7% interest with #140 million plus owed). The union has been putting out E-mails, accusing MJM of not allowing a vote. I believe that all of the recent union activity has ticked MJM off and he is blocking initiatives proposed by the union as a consequence.
Comment by AFSCME Steward Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:22 am
You can use Lisa’s potential candidacy to justify just about any conspiracy theory regarding the failure of pension reform, even those that seem entirely contradictory. For example:
If pension reform fails, Quinn is mortally wounded by his lack of leadership skills and inability to solve problems. If pension reform passes, Quinn really ticks off organized labor, a key constituent in a Democratic Primary, and loses the nomination as a result.
Comment by Frank Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:22 am
Whoops, typo
The pay raise issue was on the docket for 5/31 & then pulled. The 5/29 date was an inadvertent error.
Comment by AFSCME Steward Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:24 am
Unfortunately, the only constitutional solution to the pension crisis is a tax increase. I think Madigan knows this and wants to blame the tax increase on the courts-not himself or the Dems
Comment by Soccertease Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:24 am
Maybe he didn’t pass pension reform to leave it out there to discourage her from running.
Comment by siriusly Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:25 am
( People see exactly what they want to see.)
Actually I keep seeing exactly what I don’t want to see from this group.
Is it possible to place someone who is not hard-headed Irish in a position of authority?
Comment by Quinn T. Sential Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:27 am
How long will speaker madigan be around? In his 70s he’s well into retirement age.
Comment by foster brooks Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:30 am
Rich, I remember a piece you wrote a while back saying how difficult it can be to pass major legislation with a super majority. I’ve been thinking of that a lot the last few days.
Comment by Because I said so... Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:31 am
But if Lisa doesn’t run for governor in 2012, she won’t be able to run for President in 2016 when Obama’s term is up…
Comment by anon Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:35 am
== The truth is that if pension reform passed, it would be about Lisa. Now that it has failed, it’s about Lisa. ==
Well, yeah. I mean, it is, in fact, all about Lisa. The impact of the “Lisa Factor” goes beyond State government and touches every facet of life in Illinois. This is why I have so much trouble with the “paper or plastic” question at the grocery store.
Comment by Gunderstank Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:41 am
Enough of us on this blog have read in detail both the Madigan and Cullerton pension reform proposals. We have seen the various cost saving estimates and presumptions of those estimates. We have examined in detail the constitutional issues and what may cross the line. I have seen no consensus emerge on this blog on how the two bills can be merged within the different assumptions about a balancing of interests: the obligations to retirees versus the state’s duty to protect health and welfare.
So what we have here is a legitimate difference of opinion and Ms Madigan has nothing to do with it at all. Why the Tribune and other commentators such as Carol Marin seem to be going into a panic is simply beyond me over this failure to reach a deal. As the fiscal situation of the public pensions and cuts to state services pile up more pressure will force an eventual consensus, it is inevitable. Are millions and millions in interest piling up in the mean time, yes they are. Is the sky falling, yes but relatively slowly.
Comment by Rod Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:42 am
Rich is right, I don’t think the Speakers wants Lisa to run, and I point to the lack of pension reforms as ITEM #1. Will voters make the disconnect between father and daughter during the campaign at the pension debacle? I say no, especially after all the ads that will be run by BOTH Dem and GOP guberantorial challengers.
Comment by Sox fan Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:43 am
what IS she running for? don’t think she is running for AG again.
Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:43 am
===Read her work, she lacks the intellectual capability to run this state. Her office is a disorganized, poorly run mess. If she runs, she either has to be an arm of her father, or she will fail miserably.===
You base all this on … what?
Intellectual Capability? Based on what?
Disorganized? Based on what?
Maybe we should Fire all Madigans?
Context, please, otherwise, that ain’t helping either, ask Joe Birkett.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 10:43 am
From everything I know, the only possible way to make either of the bills, or a merged bill, constitutional is for it be be a “choice” bill with real consideration and one of the choice must be the status quo … and such a bill won’t save any money.
The other choice is increased revenue and this blog has identified most of those possibilities ad nauseum.
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 11:07 am
Lisa should run for mayor. I think she’d win in a walk.
Comment by Northsider Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 11:40 am
==How long will speaker madigan be around?==
Forever.
==Is it possible to place someone who is not hard-headed Irish in a position of authority?==
No.
Comment by Bill Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 11:42 am
Let’s also remember that sometimes people change strategies and their views of an issue.
What was correct a month ago may no longer be correct now.
Both Hinz and the Tribune may be correct at separate points in time.
Or both may be flat out wrong.
Most probably do see what they want, however, and that makes it much more difficult to run for Governor. It is more difficult to defend against attacks from both sides of an issue, as we see above with Lisa Madigan and pensions.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 12:04 pm
Another persistent theme is the ineptitude of Pat Quinn.
While there is considerable cause to embrace that theme, why should we blame anyone for the failure of Madigan and Cullerton to come to terms more than we blame Madigan and Cullerton?
They simply are the two most powerful people in Illinois politics.
===
FWIW, if I had the power to settle the dispute, Cullerton’s bill would be enacted.
As Kwame Raoul said last week, Section 5 of Article XIII was enacted for the express purpose of blocking legislation such as Madigan’s SB1.
Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 12:28 pm
My guess: Lisa’s too smart to run. She will wait until after the tax increase becomes permanent, which is probably unavoidable.
(Then again, I often guess wrong.)
Comment by walkinfool Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 1:17 pm
How long will the current Speaker be the Speaker?
I think he wants to be the Speaker for the 100th General Assembly.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 4:13 pm
We’re now in the tenth year (ever since Lisa became AG) in which every move by MJM is perceived by some to be part of a diabolical Master Plan to make her governor.
Ten years — shouldn’t they all get diamond studs for their tinfoil hats?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jun 4, 13 @ 6:29 pm