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* Yesterday was a light blogging day because I was on the road, speaking to a large group of insurance agents in Rosemont for their annual legislative/political conference.
During the speech, I asked for a show of hands of who reads the Chicago Tribune editorial page.
Just three people raised their hands, out of a hundred or so participants.
I was shocked. These were not liberals, and they’re politically engaged or they wouldn’t have taken time off from work to attend the conference.
Just for fun, I asked how many of the people who read the Trib’s editorials actually believe them. Nobody raised their hands.
Heh.
* As fun as that story is, anecdotes ain’t data. So that brings me to a Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll I commissioned back in early June. One of the questions I asked was “How would you describe the influence the Chicago Tribune’s endorsement of a candidate has on your voting?”
Just 11 percent of subscribers said the paper’s endorsement was “very influential,” while 45 percent said it had no influence and 41 percent it was somewhat influential.
Only 9 percent of non-subscribers said it was “very influential,” 62 percent said it had no influence and 18 percent said it was “somewhat influential.”
How can non-subscribers be influenced by the Trib? Well, they can buy a copy or read it online. They will also likely see such an endorsement in campaign advertising.
There were 1,489 respondents for a margin of error of +/- 2.85 percent. 41 percent of the universe were self-described Tribune subscribers.
* I also asked this question…
Recently, the Chicago Tribune endorsed a state public pension reform bill that would save taxpayers billions of dollars, but which public employee unions claim is unconstitutional and cuts too deeply into their pensions. The unions have proposed an alternative plan that doesn’t save as much as the Tribune-endorsed plan, but which they claim is constitutional. Do you agree, or disagree with the Tribune’s endorsement?
49 percent of subscribers agreed with the Trib’s endorsement, while 27 percent disagreed and 23 percent were uncertain.
Among non-subscribers, just 24 percent agreed with the Trib, while 36 percent disagreed and 39 percent were uncertain.
* So the next time you see the Tribune editorial board assert things like the failure to enact its own favored pension reform plan is “thoroughly disgusting the people of Illinois,” well, take it with a big grain of salt.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:16 am
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Those candidates still love their endorsements though. You can’t escape them in their ads.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:23 am
When you realize most Tribbie employees don’t read the edit page of Kassamoron for that matter you their blather does not make a dent
Comment by CircularFiringSquad Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:28 am
The fact that less than half of a group of insurance agents who subscribe to the CT want pension reform( meaning pension reductions) surprised me. And less than a 25% those who are non-subscribers supported it.
While hardly a scientific poll it is an excellent cursory overview.
If you are so inclined send this to Quinn, Madigan and your legislators. They should see this.
Comment by Federalist Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:32 am
How are you defining ‘influential?’ Because it’s entirely possible that people will vote against a candidate because he’s been endorsed by the Trib.
Comment by Chavez-respecting Obamist Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:33 am
===The fact that less than half of a group of insurance agents who subscribe ===
Um, you’re combining two totally different things here. Try re-reading, please.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:36 am
Part of the reason the endorsements aren’t influential is because of gerrymandering - those races are predetermined. In certain specific scenarios the endorsement could be important: say a challenger to an incumbent, or a primary where the field is very crowded (e.g., Mike Quigley).
Comment by lake county democrat Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:37 am
The Trib editorial board is a legend in its own mind.
Comment by Norseman Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:39 am
Interesting stuff. I would caution anybody coming away with conclusions to this with pieces from your post. The insurance agents are likely more in tune with issues and trends than your “average” voter. 49% of “subscribers” agreed with the Tribune’s endorsement of the pension plan - I wonder how many know the particulars? Only 27% disagreed. The Tribune is not directing their editorials or endorsements at the well informed voters but to those who just scan the headlines on their Comcast home page. If they were to actually read the articles and familiarize themselves with the facts they would conclude that the Tribune writers are actually on loan from Hadley Middle School paper and the facts don’t jive. Those folks vote, too. The attend the “telephone town hall” meetings with their elected representatives. I know, because I also attend those phone hall calls, and listen to the rhetoric. Many folks are picking up on the headlines and bumper sticker slogans and are not digging deeper. There’s nothing new there, as many here have written. It continues to dismay, tho.
Comment by dupage dan Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:40 am
I feel like the newspaper endorsements don’t do much for political junkies, but carry a lot of weight for those not politically engaged.
For those that don’t actively follow politics, hearing that so and so was endorsed by the Chicago Tribune gives credibility to that person or legislation, whether it is warranted or not. Effective on walk pieces and commercials for low-info voters.
Comment by Edwardsburg Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:42 am
Newspapers are much much more than their editorial pages. We are extremely fortunate, I believe, to live in a city/region that still has two operational daily newspapers (although both of them are on financial thin ice along with much of print media nowadays). I’d guess only a few people outside the political class– especially many intelligent engaged citizens– bother to read editorial pages, endorsements, or letters to the editor of either the Sun Times or the Tribune because they know most of it is hooey and they prefer to think for themselves. It therefore worries me that so much effort seems to be put on demonizing or belittling the Chicago Tribune here. I don’t want to ever live in a city with only one paper or no papers. I do not mean to offend anybody who comments here but this seeming war on the Tribune has been bothering me for a while and today seemed like the day to mention it.
Comment by Responsa Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:43 am
Old question: “If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?”
New Illinois question: If the Tribune writes an editorial that nobody cares about, does it influence?
Comment by Norseman Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:44 am
It seems the Trib editorials have bigger influence (+ or -) on this blog site than with the general public. If those editorials mean so little to the general public, why give them so much coverage here?
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:45 am
–I feel like the newspaper endorsements don’t do much for political junkies, but carry a lot of weight for those not politically engaged.–
If you’re not politically engaged, I doubt that you read the Trib edit page or care what they have to say.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:46 am
===why give them so much coverage here? ===
Because nobody else ever questions the good people in the ivory Michigan Ave. tower. So somebody’s got to do it because they’re so often ridiculously goofy and ill-informed. Plus, it’s kinda fun.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:47 am
Looking forward to the Twitter retort from Kristen, the self-designated Twitter spokesperson for the Trib editorial page.
Maybe she’ll roll out their own poll showing that the Trib’s opinion is still relevant. “We surveyed our news room, and 63% of our reporters and editors said our opinion matters. That’s a STRONG majority!”
Comment by Raymond Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:48 am
Also, friends who work at that paper say they love the edit board bashing and have encouraged me to keep it up.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:49 am
Even if you don’t read the Trib, you’ll hear “endorsed by the Chicago Tribune” on radio/tv ads. And there’s no Sun-Times endorsements anymore to dilute the effect.
Comment by lake county democrat Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:49 am
I read the Tribune’s editorials every day and agree with their pension plan.
They at least have a plan,thats more than I can say about the guys in Springfield.
Springfield just will put it off till next year, they have no idea of how to solve it.
All they seem to be worried about is their pay checks, everything else comes after that.
Cullerton and Madigan should have never sued their State.
Comment by Mokenavince Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 11:57 am
Ivory Tower is right; these people really believe their ideas on spending, pensions, unions, and school reform are the only viable solutions and anyone who says otherwise is committing treason of some kind. I love it when Zorn posts a completely opposing opinion in one of his columns.
Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 12:03 pm
I am influenced by the Tribune…for positions that I know little about. For Judges I use the various ranking groups, but there is no comparable group for things like the Community College Trustees, the various local elections etc.
For the big stuff, couldn’t care less.
Comment by Pandora Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 12:03 pm
I will take the Tribune’s deep concern for the state’s budget seriously immediately after the paper’s first editorial demanding that Illinois lawmakers abolish the sales tax exemption for magazines and magazines.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 12:24 pm
With aldo respect, I think this is the prevailing attitude towards newspapers in general. The fact is with the internet, cable “news” shows, politically charged radio, etc. there are a multitude of places that one can adopt an opinion on a particular issue from. Newspapers used to pretty much have free reign but no more.
Comment by Stones Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 12:34 pm
Editorial boards are the oldest part of old media. Even when newspapers were king, few read the editorials. What’s left of the newspaper business now is increasingly about generating page views on-line — and I think that is what is behind the Trib’s increasingly provocative and emotional editorials. In the not so distant past, the Trib edit board, even with its historic GOP/conservative leanings, usually behaved like the adult in the room and would have never urged and then endorsed Quinn’s gimmicky and unconstitutional salary veto. Today, they’re looking to tap into anger and increase clicks online. I think that’s where some of the goofiness is coming from.
Comment by Tommy Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 12:41 pm
You may as well have asked people this question:
A. I think for myself.
or
B. I follow the recommendations of a newspaper.
You would probably get the same survey results. Yet apparently 49% agree with the ridiculous idea that pensions caused the state’s fiscal problems, and that middle class pensioners should take the hit. Where did they get that idea? Thinking for themselves?
The Trib has much more power than just it’s oped page. It is the constant repetition of that big lie in all its State of Illinois articles that gives the Trib the power to direct how people think.
Comment by Cod Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 12:57 pm
When the speaker finally retires, the Tribune Editorial board will take credit for influencing his decision. “For the past 35 years we have been encouraging this move, we win!”
Comment by siriusly Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 1:01 pm
Mokenavince has just proved my point. His post sounds just like the bumper sticker/talking points that end up as the headlines for the Tribune.
Comment by dupage dan Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 1:28 pm
I’d love to see some Xtabs on that poll, Rich. Any chance you have it broken down by party affiliation? 9-11% may seem like a small number, but if 9-11% of independents are swayed by the Trib endorsement, that’s a big deal. Heck, if it’s 5%, that’s a big deal.
There aren’t many single things a campaign can do that move the numbers that much. Also possible the poll has a self-selection problem - not sure if everyone would be eager to admit they base their decisions on a newspaper.
Then again, I think it’s safe to say GOPers will give the Trib more credence than Indies, and even moreso than Dems.
Comment by Then again... Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 2:18 pm
“. . . and have encouraged me to keep it up.”
A case of conflict following coverage
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 2:33 pm
Editorials and newspaper endorsements have gone the way of the dodo bird.
Comment by John Wood Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 2:34 pm
I would have liked for you to ask the room two more questions: (1) For how many of you does a Tribune endorsement mean in an election, and (2) How many of you think a Tribune endorsement influences the average voter?
Sometimes a politician follows a newspaper editorial to score points in the endorsement process.
Comment by Just Me Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 2:47 pm
So are you recommending that noone read the Trib editorial page because they do not agree with your own personal perspective? I read the editorials of both Chicago papers and 2 downstaters though on a less regular basis, and challenge anyone to ask this question of any of the readers of any of these newpapers and come up with any statistically different results. Rich, you are spinning here, and it shows like a long slip under a mini skirt.
Comment by captaingeorge Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 3:38 pm
===So are you recommending that noone read the Trib editorial page because they do not agree with your own personal perspective?===
Um, no. Don’t be so dense.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 3:54 pm
==I read the Tribune’s editorials every day and agree with their pension plan.==
What is their plan? Articulate it clearly to me because they have been as all over the map as Pat Quinn. Where are there actuarial numbers? What are the incentives for lawmakers to vote for this Tribune plan?
Comment by Precinct Captain Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 4:09 pm
Tribune plan? Oh, Prunella.
Comment by dupage dan Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 4:13 pm
There is a strong public perception by Americans that the mainstream media is lacking in credibility in reporting the news without bias. This mistrust of the media is widely held by Republicans, Democrats, and especially independents. Americans are looking for the hidden agenda behind the news story or editorial when reading or listening to the mainstream media.
Comment by Ruby Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 5:43 pm
===I’d love to see some Xtabs on that poll, Rich.===
Subscribe.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Aug 8, 13 @ 5:55 pm