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* John Tillman of the Illinois Policy Institute writes…
When a GOP candidate hits 20 percent of the vote in Chicago, the math is such that they will almost always win so long as they don’t massively underperform elsewhere.
Tillman uses this stat to show that Bill Brady could’ve won in 2010 had he done better in Chicago.
* But a look at the numbers shows it’s just not that simple. Bill Brady won 17.41 percent of the city vote in 2010. But Republican Mark Kirk took 19.47 percent of Chicago’s total.
However, the difference in the two totals was just 13,971 votes (134,081 minus 120,110). Brady lost to Quinn by 31,834 votes statewide. Kirk beat Alexi Giannoulias by 59,220 votes statewide. Winning 20 percent of the city’s vote wouldn’t have made up for Brady’s other problems.
* The difference? Partly in Kirk’s congressional district, where he was much better known. Kirk outpolled Brady by 27,773 votes in suburban Cook County. Kirk did better than Brady in Lake County by 12,296 votes.
But Kirk did better than Brady in every suburban county. If you include suburban Cook, Kirk outpolled Brady by 56,184 suburban votes. Exclude Cook, and Kirk received 28,411 more suburban votes than Brady. There’s your election.
The bottom line here is that the Republicans had better field a candidate who can perform well in the suburbs. And that’s where ideology comes into play.
…Adding… From Tillman…
Hi, Rich,
Read your post and I actually don’t disagree with your points but I do disagree with how you characterize my point.
You pull this line I wrote:
“When a GOP candidate hits 20 percent of the vote in Chicago, the math is such that they will almost always win so long as they don’t massively under perform elsewhere.
And then you wrote:
“Tillman uses this stat to show that Bill Brady could’ve won in 2010 had he done better in Chicago.”
I did not say that. My point was clear: That a GOP nominee cannot “massively underperform elsewhere” but hitting at least 20% is a starting point. Brady did under perform relative to Kirk, as you rightly point out, in the suburbs (in terms of percent of the vote) and downstate (in terms of generating turnout).
John
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:29 am
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Great point. I would also say it comes down to GOTV across the state. When it’s this close you’re talking about 1-2 votes per precinct. You need people working on election day. That’s campaigning 101.
Comment by GOTV Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:36 am
The GOP already has a candidate who outpolled Quinn: Dan Rutherford got 65,000 more votes than Quinn in 2010. “If it ain’t broke - don’t fix it.”
Is it Victory we fear??
Comment by Voice of Reason Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:40 am
Kirk did better in Cook County because he was up against Giannoulias, who’s troubles with the Broadway Bank were well documented.
But your conclusion is spot on, Rich. The GOP needs to attract the collar county vote. The 2012 Presidential vote told us the ‘burbs voting Republican is no longer a given.
Comment by Darienite Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:41 am
Why is the head of a non-partisan not-for-profit writing about this topic? Has he ever worked on or run a campaign?
It seems to me these “insights” are too simplistic as Rich’s comments indicate. If we’re being simplistic, Republicans need to turn out their vote downstate and win in the suburbs. Didn’t really need a math lesson for that.
Comment by JoeD Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:41 am
A great argument for Dillard.
Comment by downstate hack Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:44 am
Great analysis, I”m sure the GOP wishes things were easy and they just needed to do a little better in Cook County and ignore their demographic problems (women, Latinos, young people, anyone that’s not a white evangelical male, etc.).
I believe someone did a great analysis (can’t remember who) but of how Brady lost largely because of the suburban female vote.
Comment by Ahoy! Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:48 am
Wait… you’re saying John Tillman made something up???
Par for the course. He is a total joke.
Comment by Rahm'sMiddleFinger Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:49 am
Tillman wasn’t too far off. If Bill Brady equaled Kirk’s Chicago vote total, those 13,971 extra votes also means Quinn would have received about 13,971 less votes. That 27,942 vote swing leaves less than a 4,000 vote margin for Quinn. Regardless of who the Republican nominee is, they better make a larger effort on Cook and the collars. Pure and simple. Yes, you can win 99 out of 102 counties and still lose the race. If Brady can win the primary, I would think he realizes what he should do differently this time around. With the We Ask America poll, if he’s leading 21/17/14/10… that leaves 38% of the GOP vote undecided. Since Bill is a known quantity, how many of those 38% are coming his way?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:51 am
This is very similar to an article that NBC ran last Friday: GOP Needs 20 Percent of Chicago Vote to Win Statewide
www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/GOP-Needs-20-Percent-of-Chicago-Vote-to-Win-Statewide-219921571.html
The conclusion based on historical data? It’s no guarantee of victory, but it’s a darn good benchmark.
Comment by Keep Calm and Carry On Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:04 pm
No candidate should put all their eggs in one basket, however. Do better in Chicago? Yes.
Do better in the suburbs? Yes. Collar counties? Yes. Downstate? Yes.
If you’re a Republican in Illinois you’ve got a lot more work to do than just Chicago.
Comment by Keep Calm and Carry On Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:05 pm
It’s the mindset more than the ideology. Kirk goes really really hard on conservative issues WHEN they also crossover and play well in the suburbs. Like taking on “machine corruption” and gangs-not just in the city but the suburbs and smaller stuff like porn on library computers-which plays well with parents. This of course is not to mention medical/science research-big with white collar office park workers who work at baxter, working on compromising in dc-a huge thing that wins with moderates and liberal independents of the eric zorn variety.
Brady has none of those. Rutherford is trying to use this model, but he’s got too many other issues and Dillard at this point is so messed up because he can’t understand why he isn’t Governor because he was edgars cos. Rauner is too undefined right now.
I said yesterday to this point it doesn’t look like the party has learned anything from its past failures. which is great for democrats.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:11 pm
I don’t disagree with your premise Rich, but your math is off.
If Brady wins 20% of the Chicago vote, he nets 17880 ((689951*.2)-120110) more votes. Because the voted for Brady and not Quinn, Q’s total is reduced to 1727339 and Brady’s total is 1731265.
Bottom line: OW’s rants hold water. The GOP can’t keep ignoring Chicago and the Burbs and expect to win. That 17.5% Statewide Win Percentage posted earlier is pathetic.
Please check my math. Sources are from the links Rich posted.
Comment by ChrisB Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:11 pm
I’d wager the difference between Quinn and Brady came down to female voters in the Chicago area. Suburban and Chicago women generally swing most recent statewide elections to the Democrats. Win the women and you’ll win statewide.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:16 pm
I’d submit the relationship is more complex than this analysis might indicate. If a Republican running in a statewide election wins about 20 percent of the vote in Chicago, that candidate more often than not should also, as a matter of course, win substantially more votes in the collars than did Brady in 2010. I’d be interested to see more data: Has there ever been an instance in which a Republican candidate has won 20 percent of the vote in Chicago, and lost a statewide election? Or has a Republican running statewide won 20 percent of the Chicago vote and not carried the collars with a margin large enough to have put Brady over the top in 2010? Those are the kinds of questions that need to be answered before we can falsify Mr. Tillman’s assertion.
Comment by JB13 Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:17 pm
===If Brady wins 20% of the Chicago vote===
If Mark Kirk couldn’t win 20 percent in 2010 of all years, then there was no way Bill Brady was gonna do it.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:18 pm
From a while back, I posted …
“ILGOP needs to do the following: Find more GOP voters in Cook, as simple as 4 more KNOWN votes per precinct in Chicago and Cook, given that “known” GOP voters and NOT voting, literally VOTING at a 100% turnout. (2034 Pcts in the City, 1673 Suburban Cook), that gets you 14,800 … Brady lost by just over 19,400, you now need to find 4,600 votes … in the entire state. 4 votes …4 voters … 2 houses of a couple that has a recorded GOP history and they didn’t vote … at all. Remember, not AGAINST Brady’s conservative views, they didn’t vote. 4 votes, and then the collars and the rest of the state should be ably to find the 5,000 to easily get over.”
Rich is Spot On, social issues are a huge factor.
Having no field operations to get any voters to the polls, as the Dems have field operations to do what they need to do, is just as glaring to add to these losses, considering we can’t get people who agree with My Party to the polls.
Great discussion…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:39 pm
@Rich ===Winning 20 percent of the city’s vote wouldn’t have made up for Brady’s other problems.===
You said it, not me. I’m just using the numbers you gave us.
The point of the exercise isn’t to play coulda-woulda-shoulda of a three year old campaign, but to show that the GOP needs to get their GOTV together and stop ignoring Chicago.
Even assuming Kirk-like numbers, it’s still a 28k vote swing. And I’d consider getting 56k suburban voters to go Kirk-Quinn to be massively underperforming in a wave election.
Like I said, I’m not disagreeing with you. 20% of Chicago voters for a GOP candidate is certainly ambitious, but should be a goal for future candidates. Put that kind of work in the City, and the Burbs won’t be a problem.
Comment by ChrisB Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:45 pm
- ChrisB -
Thanks for the props.
To the Post,
The ideology factor for Brady was in complete focus with women, and specifically moderate women who came out and voted for Kirk, and not for Brady.
If we in My Party know the liabilities against certain candidates, then we, in My Party must … MUST… secure a strong GOTV to overcome the social onslaught that occurs when the social voters make a point and vote on one or two issues, and we are on the “wrong” side for that voting block.
That being said, and all of it very important, when we run out of voters, and get to 90% turnout, then we have big troubles. With turnout leaving wiggle room to find voters, like 4 more precinct that COULD
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:52 pm
Sorry …
…COULD vote for a Brady or other “issue challenged” candidates, then the jacket has to be on My Party, our lack of GOTV, and complete lack of finding voters to even get to the polls …
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:53 pm
Here’s a question.
I think the 20% Rule® is arbitrary simply because it is difficult to determine if Chicago is pulling or being pushed by votes in the Collar Counties. I see several scenarios where the Collars may be the driving force (along with a strong downstate component) and a Republican victory can be had without 20%.
As OW constantly, and rightly, reminds us, the ground game needs to be in place, but a message that resonates in the Collars may pull enough Chicago votes, whereas a message that resonates in Chicago may not have the same effect in the Collars…
Without putting words in JB13’s mouth, I think this is what he was hinting at.
Comment by Cincinnatus Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:59 pm
It’s not social issues that will matter, or at least should matter in the next state election. We need executive competence and policies that will jumpstart Illinois and Chicago’s struggling economy. (See the dismal job creation numbers in another post).
I’m all for Chicago-bashing to rev up the base, but the simple fact is that the city should be the state’s job creation engine. We need to liberalize Illinois’ regulatory burden in ways that stimulate economic activity in all of the state’s 110 election jurisdictions whether it’s Chicago or Cairo.
That’s the only reason why Rauner looks promising. Heck, that’s why Daley looks so much better than Quinn.
The Democratic Party in Illinois can’t run a state government and certainly can’t do job creation. They’ve had their chance for more than a decade, and they’ve failed miserably.
That’s the message that has to be taken to the neighborhoods of Chicago, the suburbs, and everywhere else downstate. Nothing else matters at this point.
Comment by Downstate Illinois Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:03 pm
Two facts: 1) The suburbs are very Republican. 2) The suburbs are NOT very conservative.
The to improve their winning percentage, the GOP needs to recognize that the first truth is far more likely to change than the second.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:05 pm
- Cincinnatus - and - MrJM -,
Great posts.
Let me add, if I may to the points you both make….
Understanding My Party’s liabilities, and the realities of Chicago, Cook, the Collars, Central Illinois, Metro East, Southern Illinois, the Quad Cities, and so on …
Understanding the voters of Illinois, and understsanding our candidates have major pluses in some regions, and major liabilities in other regions … that is what a great … GREAT … campaign staff understands when building … a field organization to find the Pluses to make “the cake”.
If the ingredients are working in the Collars, then with a field organization, you need to work to get every single Plus in weak ares, and run them and find Pluses you didn’t have a week ago.
Strong regions must run their Pluses at a level that none are left on the table.
Finding Pluses, finding YOUR voters, be it statewide, but very specifically, regionally, is critical. Every vote counts. If a candidate has liabilities in Metro East, then the focus of those Pluses become even more glaring, and each Plus is worth the GOTV needed to succeed.
For me, I undeerstand, and give the thought on ideology are the credit and respect that is warrented. I grant it everything.
However, when you tell me that every ounce of a field operation found every single vote, then I will worry even more than I do about the ideology that is tearing voters from My Party with seeminly no way to stop the oil from leaking.
My Party is leaving too many votes on the table. My Party refuses to rally around the Nominees because of ideology. We need to get better at those, as we try to get candidates who reflect Illinois more, and the few in the “phone booth” less.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:26 pm
==Why is the head of a non-partisan not-for-profit writing about this topic?==
I think it’s appropriate for somebody from a “policy” institute to opine about elections. But, anybody that actually thinks the IPI is non-partisan is fooling themselves.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:56 pm
The suburban GOP moderate argument is bogus and fronted by Democrats because they’d rather run against moderates. Judy Baar Topinka was the perfect GOP “moderate” and did far worse in the suburbs than the two more conservative male candidates before and after her (Ryan and Brady). Fact is, a STRONG candidate — moderate or conservative — can win in Illinois if they aren’t massively outspent.
Comment by Crypto Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:34 pm
@MrJM:
The suburbs are not nearly as Republican as they once were. Democrats have gained seats and influence in many formerly strongly GOP suburban townships in Cook County.
Comment by None of the Above Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:41 pm
The truth in John’s world is always moving target. Truth is whatever it takes to get him out of the hole he just finished digging.
Here, he argues what he says wasn’t really what he said. Um, yes…it was. If you didn’t mean it that way, don’t write that way.
Bad weather or a big game on TV could have changed the outcome of that election. The same goes for Bill’s primary win over Kirk. It’s hard to tease lessons out of close races.
That lesson goes for those pointing to ideology as well. It’s an overstated factor in American elections. It’s there, it is a factor but you have to be very far out there (Goldwater - Johnson, Nixon - McGovern) for it to really show up.
Looking at the whole picture as Rich does is about the only way to see through that fog.
Comment by Greg Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:34 pm
Illinois is a more Democratic state than it was even four years ago. The 20% benchmark for Chicago GOP votes needs to be revised upward if they expect to win the Governor’s mansion.
While the Downstate vote is definitely trending towards the GOP, this number is dwarfed by the number of suburban voters switching to the Dem side.
The conservative vote in the city will vote for the right GOP candidate, but collar counties keep trending more Dem each year. That’s where the game is now, and has been for some time.
Comment by Truth teller Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 6:45 pm
If Brady had been 2.5% more palatable to Chicago votes, he’d have likely been a couple/few points more palatable to the suburban voters too.
20% in Chcago - without any better numbers elsewhere - wouldn’t have done it for him. But if he had been a 20% of Chicago kind of candidate, he’d have likely won (because the same factors would have pushed his numbers up elsewhere too).
Comment by titan Wednesday, Aug 21, 13 @ 8:36 am
The whole idea that getting 20% of the vote in Chicago is an acceptable standard for the Illinois GOP is absurd.
Hello — that’s where nearly a quarter of the people live. They’re not from Mars — they’re just like the folks in Peoria, Springfield and Rock Island.
Why does the GOP insist on treating 80% of the folks there like some kind of lepers?
It’s crazy. Reagan got 50% of the vote in Cook against Mondale. Edgar won Cook over Netsch.
The Illinois GOP will continue to bat well under the Mendoza line in statewide races until they reject their Dixie outlook towards Chicago and Cook.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Aug 21, 13 @ 8:48 am