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* As we’ve already discussed, Laura Washington wrote this about Sen. Kwame Raoul’s possible gubernatorial bid…
Raoul can’t win, but he could be a spoiler.
That’s the role Bill Daley and Co. are praying he’ll play.
Eric Zorn notes that Washington cheered Roland Burris’ 2002 gubernatorial bid, even though Burris ended up being a clear spoiler.
But never mind that. Let’s move on.
* The Question: Do you think Kwame Raoul will just wind up nominating Bill Daley if Raoul runs for governor? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 12:55 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
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Kwame will come in second to Quinn if he runs…Raoul will fall in line in any case and endorse Quinn to smooth the waters for 2018…
Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:02 pm
No.
I think Raoul has the most difficult road to victory should he enter the race but it’s not clear he would take votes from only one candidate over the other. He may be likely to pull away AA support from the incumbent but that’s not the only electoral segment that would be affected by his candidacy.
Comment by The Captain Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:03 pm
You would have to accept the premise that most African-American voters are currently ready to vote for Quinn in a Quinn-Daley race. I don’t believe that to be the case. I would think Raoul would be a smart pick for LG by either candidate.
Comment by Darienite Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:03 pm
i voted no. although i would still prefer to see him on the national stage, and i think it’s a narrow path, but he could win it all. people outside the collar counties may be aghast at the possibility, but raoul has a better chance that daley, i’d think. setting aside the thought that he could utilize the organizations of democratic senators (which really aren’t that impressive as political organizations/vote getting machines), raoul has a *much* better chance at the democratic holy grail in 2014 — mobilizing african-american, young people and single women voters. moreover, he would add enormous excitement to the race and the base. the only question is can he raise the money…
Comment by bored now Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:06 pm
I voted No. I am not sure Kwame loses. I think there is a great desire for a viable option other than Quinn. Seems to me that Quinn and Brady at some point will start slinging Mud at each other. If Kwame is seen as the adult in the race who is free to espouse ideas then why wouldn’t he carry the day.
Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:07 pm
Sorry Brady should have been Daley
Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:08 pm
It’s not just the African-American base that is affected. I think a lot of progressives were holding their nose and voting for Quinn. They liked Quinn’s policies, but hated his incompetence. A lot of those progressives will probably jump to Kwame. If he can put together a solid coalition of African-American and progressive voters, there’s a path to victory. Kwame also hasn’t upset the unions as much as Quinn. Plus, I think the Senate will give Kwame a lot of support. All in all, it’s a path to a primary victory.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:09 pm
No, I think Raoul has a decent shot at finishing first in a 3 way race. He hurts Quinn in the African-American community, sure, but he also severely undercuts the anti-Quinn vote Daley is counting on. He needs to raise/spend about $3 million to pull it off, a big number but not impossible.
But to do it he needs to start now and that is complicated by his role on the pension committee. He must be a full-time fundraising machine from now until the primary, and whatever reforms the committee comes up with will seriously impact his ability to raise money. It’s a pickle for him, he either needs to be the committee chairman or a candidate for governor. He can’t do both.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:09 pm
I voted no because I think he could win in a three way race. Public workers and labor are looking for an alternative to the pension bashing Quinn (Daley seems to be there too). With teachers, labor, etc. AND what one would assume is at least a significant portion of the AA vote, I think there is a real chance.
Comment by ash Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:15 pm
Is it me or are we lurching from Candidate to Candidate to find someone anyone other than Pat Quinn and Daley?? That can’t be reassuring to Daley Co.
Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:16 pm
If Kwame can raise enough money to compete, he can win. This case is bolstered in the event that Kwame selects a downstate LG candidate who is willing to vouch for him down there.
47th Ward is right - he needs to start raising money and quick.
Comment by Lakewood-Balmoral Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:17 pm
===are we lurching from Candidate to Candidate to find someone===
Has there been anybody else since Lisa got out?
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:17 pm
Speaking only for myself, I plan on voting for Daley if it is just the two-person race, but I will be voting for Raoul if he gets in. Anyone but Quinn!
Comment by Kruse Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:22 pm
He’s not a spoiler. He could win. I’m not the first to suggest it (however odd), but Brandon Phelps for Lite Guv might help.
Comment by Ray del Camino Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:23 pm
Rich,
That is true Lisa was the last so maybe not candidate to candidate. However it seems to me that Daley should be the leading contender for the Anti-Quinn vote. Primarily since he is in the race. Yet Raoul who i think most hadn’t thought of him running until Lisa declined is now the talk. I would think that if I was Bill Daley i’d be concerned that instead of people talking about me vs. Quinn they are looking for a who else can run.
As for me if Raoul runs i’ll pull a dem primary ballot. As the dem primary seems like the best place to be rid of PQ. If the choice is Daley or Quinn i’ll pull a repub ballot and hope for the best.
Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:30 pm
Washington’s “stalking horse” premise seems to assume that Daley will win far more votes Downstate than Quinn. I just don’t see that happening. Daley might beat Quinn among upscale voters, and that could give him a slight edge in some collar counties, but other than that I just don’t see where Daley’s base of support is. I think he finishes third behind Quinn and Raoul in a three-way race. If anything, he could be the stalking horse who gives Raoul a chance to beat Quinn.
Comment by OldSmoky2 Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:31 pm
Raoul would have Cullerton’s support, and Cullerton would not help challenge a sitting governor just to be a “spoiler” who helps Bill Daley become the nominee.
Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:42 pm
My gut feel is that Kwame will pick up the progressives and a sizeable share of the downstate anti-Quinn vote to add to a solid showing in the AA community sufficient to come in first.
Quinn has exceed his expire date.
Comment by Cassiopeia Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:43 pm
Tio/Cohen 2016!
The race is up for grabs
Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:43 pm
Quinn comes with the pension baggage, the continued economic debt, and few real accomplishments. Daley comes with his family name and banking employment history for a company that burned many people. Timing, circumstance, and opportunity are merging pretty well for Raoul. He seems to be comer ready for the next step. How he handles it will mark his future.
Comment by zatoichi Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:47 pm
If Kwame can find a respectable down state candidate as a running mate,I believe he could win.
Comment by downstate hack Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:49 pm
Seems to be presumptuous to assume he can’t win.
If the anti-Quinn feeling is genuine , Raul can win being the anti-Daley
Comment by Plutocrat03 Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:52 pm
AA voters won’t pay as much attention to AA endorsements as they will to making history–again–if Kwame gets in. So, I say he gets a huge % of the AA vote. Hispanic voters may go to Quinn, but not in sufficient numbers if Kwame and Daley break even with those who are left. Kwame gets progressive women because these two white guys can be said to be part of the testosterone-driven gridlock. Cook County, who knows? Kwame will play better than Dan Hynes and Daley and Quinn will be fighting over the same ethnic turf. Kwame gets Democrats downstate who have seen nothing from Quinn but closures and unfulfilled promises on jobs but who find the Daley name tasting bitter on their tongues. Kwame,too, picks up more than you think downstate with the help of his Senate colleagues (Koehler, Sullivan, Manar, Stadelman, Haine, Jacobs, etc.) who are just biding their time to see if a reasonable alternative surfaces. IMHO, Kwame is not the spoiler here at all, but the guy to beat.
Comment by Hat Trick Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:52 pm
Raoul-Phelps??
Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:56 pm
If Kwame gets in, Daley plays no role other than attack dog against Quinn. With Kwame in, Daley has no chance of taking the nomination. Daley ends up with less than 15%.
And other than people currently on the government payroll, I just don’t see a base of support for Quinn. I don’t know of anybody who actually likes the guy. Certain people find him useful for various reasons but I question whether that is enough to get him the nod.
Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:56 pm
Typically having more than one opponent benefits incumbents by splitting the opposition and letting them win with a plurality of the vote. Of course Quinn is weaker than most incumbents, and we don’t know yet if Raoul could put together a serious challenge. We don’t know if Daley can attract votes either.
Comment by reformer Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:57 pm
Kwame could take as many votes from Daley as Quinn.
My theory is that Daley thinks he has Chicago sewn up feeling that his brothers, Obama, and Rahm have paved the way for him. In reality, Chicago would not be pro-Daley since the name makes us all want to barf…all you have to do is listen to someone feeding the meters to hear the wretching.
I think he has more than a good chance to take the primary and maybe the election if he has the money, a downstate running mate, and the correct assistence,
Comment by Belle Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 1:59 pm
Sen. Raoul is the real deal. I’m begging him to run because I like most people who will vote in that primary cant stand Quinn. Daley isn’t even an option for me.
Daley doesn’t have a path to victory especially if Kwame jumps in. Quinn will have a credible dem challenger on his hands and I’d love to Kwame debate Quinn.
Comment by Farker Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:02 pm
==Kwame will come in second to Quinn if he runs==
I think that’s putting entirely too much stock in Pat Quinn at this particular moment in time. I’m not saying Raoul would win but a Pat Quinn win is definitely not a fate accompli.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:02 pm
If Kwame can win 10 downstate counties, Rockford and stay even with Quinn in Cook and suburban Cook, he wins. He needs more downstate counties than Quinn won last time which isn’t hard to do.
Comment by woodchuck Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:14 pm
No. If anything he’d impede Daley who seems to serve as a protest vote against Quinn more than anything else. He would siphon off Quinn’s minority support and Daley’s “At least I’m not Pat Quinn” support. The right running mate would work downstate. I don’t know how the numbers work, but I imagine both campaigns take a hit if he enters the arena.
Comment by MEP Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:16 pm
Again, I see people grossly underestimating the power of an incumbent Governor here…Quinn just got the endorsement from his fellow pols in Cook County…do you think they’ll turn their backs on him and go on the stump for Kwame? Really? If Quinn gets a majority of votes in Cook County, how can other counties trump those numbers? Please enlighten me…
Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:23 pm
I voted no. In fact, if Sen. Raoul gets in the race, Bill Daley can pen an autobiography and pay homage to Gale Sayers at the same time:
http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/15229315-i-am-third
Comment by Knome Sane Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:29 pm
This is only a guess. I think that Quinn’s support in the African American precincts is closely related to the ability of local committeemen to deliver votes. Quinn has given many influential politicians carte blanche to do whatever they like in return for votes. I think these votes provided him with with his narrow margin over Brady in 2010. Nobody is enthused about Quinn, but a deal is a deal. Raoul may be a spoiler, but I do not think that many committeemen are going to publicly support him since their deals are already made with Quinn.
Comment by None of the Above Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:36 pm
This is a recipe for disaster for democrats, one that gave us 20 years of GOP domination of the governors office. 2 white candidates, black candidate senses a matchup that will indeed win the primary, but lose the general.
Comment by Madison Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:43 pm
===do you think they’ll turn their backs on him===
As hundreds of black political and church leaders discovered in 2008, their hard work and endorsements for and of Hillary Clinton were completely ignored by their constituents. Kwame is no Barack, but who is?
What I’m saying here is that black ward and township organizations are gonna have a real tough time pushing PQ if Raoul runs a legit campaign.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:45 pm
I think he should run. He starts with a base of African-American and lakefront liberals more then likely of 200-250 thousand.
If he choose a prominent Latino or reformer running mate like former Chicago IG David Hoffman or Will County Auditor Duffy Blackburn to broaden his base and turnout an another 100 thousand votes from his coalition he will be sitting pretty as long as he can raise north of 1.5 million to stay competitive on TV.
On top of that his Senate buddies will either openly or under the radar help him in their districts.
I for one am looking for an alternative and there is still enough time for him to put it all together.
Comment by Citizen Carl Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:46 pm
Both the polls and the feeling you get from just walking around is that, in spite of a late start, a credible third candidate has a shot in this racd.
Comment by jake Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:49 pm
Loop Lady,
As Will Caskey so eloquently noted, the slating from the Cook County Democratic Party is worth a robocall and a mailer.
Certain committeemen will still go their own way and if they do not, Kwame is still going to get votes. People are going to look at a ballot and say “Don’t like Quinn. Won’t vote for a Daley again. Voting for this third guy.”
Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:50 pm
Rich, with all due respect to Sen. Raoul, he is not Barack Obama…Two points: Obama seized upon a truly unique moment in time, and this is 2013…
Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 2:53 pm
===Rich, with all due respect to Sen. Raoul, he is not Barack Obama===
Already noted above.
===Obama seized upon a truly unique moment in time===
This is pretty unique as well. You got a governor polling in the 20s, a challenger polling below that, over half the Dem electorate wanting somebody else or unsure if they like their current choices, 56+ percent of black Dems wanting somebody else, Lisa Madigan out of the race, etc., etc. These sorts of openings don’t come around every day. There’s a more clear path for Kwame than there was for Barack when he began his run for US Senate.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:01 pm
Voted no for now, it all depends on how much Raoul can raise and what kind of organization he can put together. He does have a colleague in over 3/5 of the Senate districts in the state and that is probably where almost 4/5 of the primary votes will be. He’ll probably even get a good share of downstate votes for not being Pat Quinn or a Daley.
Comment by Ahoy! Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:02 pm
Also, if by saying “it’s 2013″ that Obama has somehow hurt black candidates in this state, I suggest you look at last year’s election results.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:03 pm
Lots of underestimating Pat Quinn here. In a Democratic primary, committeemen do matter. Over 60% of the votes will come from Cook County, and Quinn has support from quite a few solid organizations there and throughout the state. He will not have to build a GOTV operation from scratch, which is a big advantage.
Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:16 pm
Snucka
Quinn’s biggest Challenger is Quinn. In 2010 Quinn looked like a decent guy stuck with the Blago fall out. You could even argue that he never had a shot to really be Gov. and the failures he had were due to blago. However in ‘14 he will have had that shot. That I think will be his biggest problem.
We’ve tried the Quinn show didn’t like it much.
Of course Daley is almost as toxic as Quinn. Which i think is where Raoul comes in.
Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:38 pm
Simple Answer - If Kwame runs a legitimate campaign, he gets 70%, maybe close to 80% of the City / County AA vote (more if he motivates). That gets him into the low to mid 20%+ range depending on overall turnout and its all up for grabs after that, but probably gives him as big, or larger, natural base as Quinn and definitely a larger natural base than Daley. The question then is where does he expand from there to win in a 3-way race. He has lot of opportunities, particularly among lake shore progressives, labor and suburban dems, etc. The real question is can he run a real race or does he become an underfunded, disorganized name on the ballot struggling to pay his bills - which =
Comment by Dave Fako Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:39 pm
LL at 2:23. If Raoul jumps in, I don’t think any one of the Chicago candidates has a lock on Cook County. That makes downstate more important than usual in a statewide Dem primary. I don’t see a lot of downstate love for Quinn (Pension reform, guns, facility closures, you name it) or Daley (Fat Cat banker). That leaves a path for Raoul.
Comment by SAP Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:44 pm
==Has there been anybody else since Lisa got out? ==
Lisa never “got in,” except into people’s mindsets that she was in, all in their imaginations. Her demeanor regarding her candidacy was coy admittedly.
In some quarters, their might be a desire to have a ballot spot with names voters wish had won the primaries. Sen. Raoul has a lot on his plate, so he better eat fast if he wants to get into the race. He might also want to be definitive now as to whether his candidacy is for real or another blog-topic.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:56 pm
“Daley should be the leading contender for the Anti-Quinn vote”
Daley profiles as a perfect PQ alternative for a person like me (solid D, in the city, white, UMC professional, who will NOT vote for PQ). I am still soliciting write-in ideas, if we get no third D candidate. Bill Daley may have been the only plausible D candidate I am *less* likely to vote for than PQ in the D primary.
Comment by Chris Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 3:58 pm
I see thread drift, here.
Whether Kwame Raoul can beat Pat Quinn is a very different question than whether Kwame Raoul entering the race helps Bill Daley.
IMHO & FWIW, Kwame Raoul entering the race eliminates Bill Daley’s best argument, namely “I am not Pat Quinn”
Therefore, Laura Washington has it exactly backwards and Bill Daley may very much need to keep Kwame Raoul out of the race.
Comment by Bill White Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:04 pm
The average voter south of I-80 has never heard of Sen. Raoul. They don’t like PQ, and are very hesitant about voting for a Chicago Daley. If Raoul heads south in a hurry he has a chance.
Comment by South of 64 Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:05 pm
Mason:
You may be right, but that doesn’t change the fact that Quinn has a big tactical advantage in a Democratic primary.
Comment by Snucka Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:19 pm
“This is a recipe for disaster for democrats, one that gave us 20 years of GOP domination of the governors office. 2 white candidates, black candidate senses a matchup that will indeed win the primary, but lose the general.”
I don’t really see the comparison; who was the black candidate in ‘76? And are any of the Republicans running really much like Jim Thompson?
Comment by downstate lib Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:27 pm
I vote no. Raoul has a good chance to win the primary if he runs. More Democrats will participate, those that will probably skip the primary because they don’t like the other two, added to those he lures away from Daley and Quinn.
Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:34 pm
Snucka
I took a little time to talk to some Dem voters i work with. 7/9 of whom were in the i don’t want Quinn or Daley about 4 of them were in the i won’t vote in the primary if those are my choices and 3 said they would pull a Repub ballot. The other two were Daley can’t be as bad as Quinn. I agree with you that Quinn is formidable in Chicago. In a 2 person race he may beat Daley in Chicago but both are highly toxic outside Chicago.
To me that is the route for Raoul. If he can show himself as a viable i am not PQ he pulls votes that otherwise stay home or vote in repub primary. I don’t think anyone at all is enthusiastic about Daley. Assuming Raoul has any showing in Chicago at all Daley comes in last with Raoul and Quinn a toss up for #1.
Comment by Mason born Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:38 pm
Look….any respectful black statewide candidate will get 25% of the democratic primary vote in Illinois. Obama was in 3rd place with less than 25% of the vote, when Blair Hull imploded in Feb. 2004. Quinn has proven himself to be incompetent. The choice for democratic primary voters is between incompetence (Quinn) , competence without progressive values (Daley) and St. Sen. Raoul. Lisa should “man-up”and run for Governor. She should have channeled the Speaker’s political hero, Harry Truman, and made them like it.
Comment by Louis Howe Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:44 pm
=== Obama was in 3rd place with less than 25% of the vote, when Blair Hull imploded in Feb. 2004.===
And before Obama’s first TV ads aired.
And, by the way, Hull was a given to implode. Pretty much everybody knew he had an OJ problem, just not exactly what it was.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 4:50 pm
Yeah Rich you’re right…we all knew about it. I was at a Hull campaign meeting in June 2003 where his campaign manager admitted as much, but he was making $20,000 a month and didn’t want to risk blowing out Blair’s negatives early. Obama’s TV ads were next to nothing in this race. He benefited from his opponents incompetence.
Comment by Louis Howe Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 5:02 pm
I’m not so sure the Daley name is so toxic in the African American community. I know a lot of people who did well under Daley and they were not fat cats but middle class. Kwame hurts Daley there if he gets in.
Comment by thomas paine Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 5:09 pm
Could Raoul legally be the GovLite candidate for both Daley and Quinn?
Comment by Chavez-respecting Obamist Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 5:16 pm
This blog is comprised of a fairly closed circle of very focused and politically involved people. No matter how much those who know him like him and respect him, I am not convinced that anyone outside of the circle even knows who Kwame is. I think this is a bigger hurdle for him should he run than people realize.
Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 5:40 pm
——–I am not convinced that anyone outside of the circle even knows who Kwame is——-
I think you may be right on this. However, he has a great following and is well liked among his peers and could upset the election. I don’t think he’ll run, but do know him and he’s well respected by many. His told me his background story one day about how how he grew up and became who he is today and it is amazing and inspiring. That alone could get him up there in the running. Plus he is and was an amazing supporter of causes that appeal to so many. Will be interesting. *Pass the popcorn*
Comment by Sandy Champion Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 6:41 pm
Unsure. I’m not sure even KWAME knows for sure what he’s going to do now, soon (if anything at all), or even let alone LAter for that matter, yet…! For the SAKE of the African-American Community in the long run, however, if he ran and eventually withdrew, he’d actually be better off endorsing Gov. Quinn–who overall, over MANY years and not only as Governor, has an excellent track record of helping out the African-American Community (with William D., there’d only be an assurance–hardly the same as the “proof in the pudding” as they say…)!
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 7:32 pm
“Could Raoul legally be the GovLite candidate for both Daley and Quinn?”
Personally, that’s a situation I absolutely do not want to happen. I’d much rather have Raoul in the state senate where he has the experience to do some good rather than in the LT.
That said, if Daley wins, I’d be fine with Pat Quinn as his LT. Can’t happen and won’t happen.
Comment by Timmeh Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 7:43 pm
Responsa, it’s true that Senator Raoul has a fairly low profile today. But if he makes a serious run, I think there will be lots of public interest, and I don’t think he’ll lack for media attention.
Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 8:14 pm
===Could Raoul legally be the GovLite candidate for both Daley and Quinn?===
Probably so, but why would he ever want to do that?
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 8:34 pm
If the 02 election is a benchmark, both Daley and Quinn have much higher negatives than Blago (at that time) or Vallas. Both right now rely on voters whose votes can be peeled off. If Kwame can be just enough none of the above and can appear credible and put together the money and machine to be credible, it’s very, very possible he wins.
Lisa Madigan would win the race easily. Other than name recognition and access to money and organization, what would she have brought to the table?
Comment by Quizzical Tuesday, Aug 20, 13 @ 11:04 pm