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* One of the reasons the gay marriage bill didn’t pass last spring was that the House Democratic targets - those who could face significant opposition in the general election - were advised to stay away from the bill.
Running a legislative chamber with an eye always on protecting the more politically vulnerable can generally - not always, but generally - keep things more to the center of the spectrum.
This, obviously, has not been the case in DC, where the fringe has taken over the asylum. And that has freshman GOP Congressman Rodney Davis rightly worried…
Republican Representative Rodney Davis, whose Illinois district voted for his party’s presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, in 2012 by a narrow margin — 48.9 percent to Obama’s 48.6 percent — said he also has been feeling political heat, and has repeatedly told House leaders he stands to lose from it.
“I’ve got now hundreds of thousands of dollars being spent” by groups using the shutdown to attack him in ads, he said in an interview. “So, if you ever want to know what message the Democrats are wanting to test, come to my district. I’m like the guinea pig.”
“I obviously have said the entire time we’ve been in this: the shutdown is not good for me,” Davis said. “The shutdown’s not good for America.”
Americans United for Change, a group that targeted 10 vulnerable Republicans this week for negative commercials, calls it “Rodney Davis’ Tea Party shutdown” in its ad in his district.
There are times when party leaders have no choice but to put their politically vulnerable members at risk. Country (or state) must rise above party. It’s the noble thing to do, which is why Speaker Madigan ought to take off the marriage bill brick.
* But tossing your targets overboard for the radical and delusional pipe dream of ending Obamacare is nothing short of political malpractice…
The Republican Party has been badly damaged in the ongoing government shutdown and debt limit standoff, with a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finding that a majority of Americans blame the GOP for the shutdown, and with the party’s popularity declining to its lowest level.
By a 22-point margin (53 percent to 31 percent), the public blames the Republican Party more for the shutdown than President Barack Obama – a wider margin of blame for the GOP than the party received during the poll during the last shutdown in 1995-96.
Just 24 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion about the GOP, and only 21 percent have a favorable view of the Tea Party, which are both at all-time lows in the history of poll.
Sheesh.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 11:19 am
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Madigan has no business putting a brick on gay marriage to protect some mushrooms. That’s a disgraceful tactic in regards to an issue that’s a lot bigger than him or his precious super-majority.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 11:26 am
Nate Silver had an interesting piece on this issue — the effect of the shutdown on the midterms — on Grantland.com yesterday or the day before.
Comment by 6-4-3 Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 11:28 am
“I obviously have said the entire time we’ve been in this: the shutdown is not good for me,” Davis said. “The shutdown’s not good for America.”
You state that it’s not good for you first and not good for America second. That’s a mistake.
Comment by Aldyth Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 11:30 am
So they cave early next week and will have accomplished nothing.
The debt ceiling will be raised again, the Democrats will continue to spend like drunken sailors with no eye to the deficits, and the very flawed Obamacare will continue to live. Faced with this failure, professional Tea Party zealots will, in turn, blame the “RINOs” — oblivious to the fact that most of America not only disagrees with them but is repulsed. Watergate-level polls numbers? Nope. That’s a fiction of the “lamestream media.”
“I’m shocked,” said No One Ever.
Comment by LincolnLounger Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 11:31 am
“I obviously have said the entire time we’ve been in this: the shutdown is not good for me,” Davis said. “The shutdown’s not good for America.”
Not trying to pull a drive by, but it is odd he phrased it this way. Himself first, America second.
Comment by lost in translation Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 11:34 am
lost: Should that surprise you in the least? A politician thinking of himself first? Not odd at all.
Comment by Schoolhouse Rock Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 11:41 am
===not good for America second. That’s a mistake.===
Oh, please. Sheesh, try to elevate yourselves above the level of usual DC politics. For crying out loud, what’s next, is his flag pin on straight?
God, I absolutely hate what moronic DC / cable TV politics has done to people.
Grow the heck up.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 11:45 am
The sooner they cave on this farce in DC the better for GOP House members like Davis in swing districts. It can be long forgotten next year.
How anyone in the House GOP believed Cruz when he said he could deliver the GOP Senate plus Dem Senators on defunding will be a future case study in mass delusion.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 11:46 am
On the Tea Party, the shutdown, the effect on downballot Republicans… I concur. A million percent. But Rich, I’m interested in this marriage bill “brick.” Are you saying that the Speaker himself has advised vulnerable Dems to stay away? That would imply that party campaign funds might be withheld from Dems who support the bill and get challenged for it. Not saying that’s necessarily the case, but it seems to imply that. You folks are all more qualified than me to assess that… Is this what you’re saying?
Comment by FoxValleyPride1 Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 11:48 am
Wait, you mean to say that this poorly thought out plan has the potential to backfire badly and have real consequences?
I wish the GOP knew how to play chess. Not just move the pieces, but actually think 3-4 moves ahead and plan accordingly.
Comment by ChrisB Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 11:55 am
Rodney Davis was one of the 80 Republican wingnuts who signed the letter pledging to shut down the government.
Of course now that his recklessness has blown up in his face, he’s trying to change his story. This is what happens when the GOP jams in an unqualified hack.
Sheesh is right.
Comment by too obvious Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 11:55 am
Can Rodney Davis really claim to be a victim of Tea Party radicals when he was one of the 84 reps who signed the letter demanding defunding of Obamacare be part of the CR?
Comment by hisgirlfriday Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 12:06 pm
==The sooner they cave on this farce in DC==
When serious and competent negotiators are actually trying to reach a deal, they know that using words like “cave” and “hostage takers” and “economic treason” are not the way to get a result–or to get respect. No matter how much they may disagree with or even hate their opponent in the negotiations, they should understand that the “loser” needs a place in which to maneuver and must have at least a small victory in the end. This is simple, basic, negotiation strategy and is not being employed in DC right now. This is not the Super Bowl or the World Series where one team tries to crush the opponent and winner takes all. At least it’s not supposed to be that way when the voters clearly have elected a divided government.
Comment by Responsa Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 12:06 pm
@Responsa
Just as we need to nail the door shut on Quinn’s line item veto stunt, we need to nail the door shut on using threats of government shutdown and the debt ceiling as a tool in 11th hour negotiation.
Even threatening a shut down over the ACA was profoundly irresponsible.
Comment by Bill White Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 12:13 pm
Bill White–I have three words for you: Medical Devices Tax. Most Repubs and a large number of Dems in both houses of Congress understand that feature was a mistake and want it gone. It will be gone at some point very soon. It was the simple bi-partisan key to end this, and with it, Harry had a chance to end this days ago. Why did he not?
Comment by Responsa Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 12:22 pm
Perhaps the medical devices tax should be repealed. I don’t know, I haven’t looked into the issue sufficiently to have an opinion.
However, even if the medical devices tax should be repealed, a government shut down and refusing the increase the debt limit is the wrong way to get from Point A to Point B.
Comment by Bill White Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 12:29 pm
Responsa, read Bill White’s last comment. He’s right. Shut down the government and threaten default to repeal a little tax? Ridiculous.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 12:31 pm
Not Mike Madigan’s biggest fan, but I am absolutely envious of his political intelligence. If there’s a brick there, there’s a reason. He’ll move it when there’s another reason.
Comment by A guy... Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 12:47 pm
Rich, you more than probably anyone here knows how sausage is made. We may all disagree with the original intent and strategy (or lack thereof) of the House Repubs. But getting rid of the Medical Devices tax was a painless bi-partisan way to end the shutdown and throw Boehner a needed bone. We’d not only have a working government but also a nice plate of tasty sausage had Reid allowed a senate vote on this little House bill to remove a “little tax”.
Comment by Responsa Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 12:49 pm
Rep. Davis is right. The longer this fiasco goes on the more likely it is to stick to him. (That’s why you saw conservative groups laughably trying to pin the Tea Party’s shutdown on Rep. Enyart too.)
Bob “I’m more conservative than I can let on” Dold also put out a press release supporting the GOP shutdown and you better believe that’s going to come back to bite him All. Next. Year.
Even Sen. Kirk voted “for” the shutdown. I haven’t seen any play on that from the DSCC though.
If I recall, the lowest point Pres. George W. Bush ever hit was about a 25%-approval rating.
It seems for about 25-30% of Americans one party or the other can do no wrong (or, conversely, can do no right). And, the Congressional GOP seems to have hit that basement.
I wonder if Speaker Boehner has saved his gavel from the Tea Partiers only to lose his Speakership from the American people. (Democrats did have a collective 1,000,000 or so vote surplus in the 2012 Congressional voting. It was only GOP gerrymandering across several states that saved their majority.)
Still, there’s about a year to go before 2014 voting begins and that’s an eternity in campaign cycles.
Comment by A. Nonymous Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 12:52 pm
Responsa, one never knows what happens when one goes to all-out war. That’s why one should avoid going to all-out war unless absolutely necessary. You can’t blame the other party for a shutdown that your party caused. And there’s absolutely no guarantee that a cave a few days ago on the device tax would’ve ended it anyway. What you’re doing is putting out a revisionist history from start to finish.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 12:53 pm
Responsa, you’re not keeping up with the ever-changing goals and rationalizations for the government shutdown and default threat. Medical devices is old news.
I understand. The spin changes by the hour.
The best belly-laugh (so far) in this whole bad comedy was the concept of “prioritization” championed by some of those in the clown car.
In this scenario, with the government shut down and no debt-limit increase, revenues from your taxes (you are still paying them) would be “prioritized” to pay bondholders first.
This allegedly would calm the financial markets and keep the planet from slipping into another harsh recession — a universally acknowledged risk of default.
Putting aside the dubious practicality or legality of the proposal (lots of federal spending has strong existing statutory authority), that would lead, in just a few short weeks, to your tax dollars going to bondholders in China, Japan and big banks around the world, while Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid payments would be halted, as would paychecks to those serving in the military.
Forget long-range strategy — such is the short-range thinking of the fiscally irresponsible radicals pulling this stunt.
They aren’t playing chess. They aren’t playing checkers. They aren’t playing with a full deck.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 12:54 pm
This may hurt Republicans more than Democrats, but the anti-incumbent mood in general that is filtering through daily conversations with even apolitical individuals in astounding.
Plus, there is the historical trend of a party that has a second-term president in the White House getting swamped during mid-term elections.
Factor all those things together and incumbents of all parties may be in trouble in 2014.
Democrat, Republican, Green, Independent, makes no difference. Citizens are deeply dissatisfied with the entire process and people in office. Even if they usually like their local representative, frustration with the system at large eventually hits a boiling point.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 12:54 pm
===when the voters clearly have elected a divided government.===
You should read…
===Democrats did have a collective 1,000,000 or so vote surplus in the 2012 Congressional voting===
Actually I think it was closer to 1.5 mil.
So it ain’t “clear” at all.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 12:55 pm
@Responsa - You are very wrong that a medical device tax repeal (which is a bipartisan gift to the K Street lobbyists pushing its repeal) could have prevented this. That was not enough for the rabblerousers following the Ted Cruz/Erick Erickson pied pipers into this shutdown. The House GOP wanted the shutdown because they deluded themselves into thinking the ACA was so widely unpopular they’d be lauded as heroes for shutting govt down over it. Remember Michele Bachman saying “We got exactly what we wanted”?
Comment by hisgirlfriday Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 1:01 pm
==You can’t blame the other party for a shutdown that your party caused.==
Wow. OK. Well sorry, Rich. I guess I honestly don’t see me anywhere saying the things you say I did. I’m just looking for a way out of a mess.
Comment by Responsa Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 1:02 pm
Re: Dold running again - When those polls coming out for the Republican Party were revealed to be the lowest ever my first thought was of that great ad for Schneider last campaign with the yuppie couple choosing paint. “So… Republican… ewww” Schneider should run that again and Dems should find a way to make that spot national (perhaps instead of yuppies choosing paint you could have guys picking a pick up truck in the Davis district).
Comment by hisgirlfriday Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 1:06 pm
In relation to this - and its political impact from Rich’s story on Cong. Davis: Good read if you have an interest in a logical assessment of the D.C. government shutdown both on why and its impact politically. Silver is a very good data analyst, avoids the mindless D.C. BS mantra from both sides and boils it down to reality.
http://www.grantland.com/fivethirtyeight/story/_/id/9802433/nate-silver-us-government-shutdown
Comment by Dave Fako Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 1:11 pm
As long as the GOP ship is being steered by the far right they will be in troubled waters. Our state is a perfect example. Before the primaries I think very few thought any Democrat could have held onto the governors office. I am no Davis fan and his wiliness to be a good soldier for the right wing side of his party sure will not change my mind. I am not sure how good or bad the ACA is but you better give me a good alternative to it before you shut down the government to defund it. In my trade we often worked as a two man team. If the guy you worked with got sent down the road you more often than not went with him.
Comment by Bemused Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 1:23 pm
Let’s say you build a house. Most of your neighbors like it. But 2 hate it. They come to you and say we want to burn down your house. You say no. They say how about just the 2nd floor. You say no. They say, why won’t you compromise with us?
Comment by RetiredStateEmployee Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 1:24 pm
@Responsa
I think the Senate Dems would have accepted the medical device tax repeal if they thought the Ted Cruz tea party intransigence would end. Not likely.
When the six week continuing resolution is up, there will be yet another demand despite the fact that Obama has agreed to the House GOP spending levels.
An unending succession of short-term continuing resolutions and debt limit extensions used as leverage for picking apart Obamacare and other things Dems like is a strategy that will eventually hit a brick wall.
Comment by Going nuclear Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 1:25 pm
Imaginary Pollster: Is the government shutdown good, or bad? Response: 85% bad - 10% good 5% undecided. Imaginary Pollster: If your response was bad, and with 10 being really mad, and 1 being not too mad, on a scale of 1 to 10, just how bent out of shape are you over the shutdown? Response: Maybe a 3 or 4. Keyser Soze observation: This will soon pass into the dustbin of history after which life will go on.
Comment by Keyser Soze Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 1:30 pm
HGF, the “Paint” spot was a home run last time out, the best in the cycle. Talk about knowing your target and executing with a great concept.
Schneider also had the “LBJ Medicare” spot — just black-and-white footage of LBJ talking about Medicare.
I was and remain undecided about it (I’d like to see the postmortem research) — but, man, did it have stopping power. So different. No flipping.
Of course, I thought Hynes’ “Harold Washington/Pat Quinn” spot was a homerun, too, and we know how that moved the needle, lol.
That was Adelstein’s crew for “Paint” and “LBJ”, right? They really showed me something last time out.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 1:32 pm
Congratulations Republicans. You have set the stage for Pat Quinn’s re-election. Something he could not have done without your help.
Comment by Siriusly Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 1:35 pm
Has anybody heard anything from Erika Harold about the shutdown? She’s still running, right?
Comment by TooManyJens Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 2:43 pm
==Has anybody heard anything from Erika Harold about the shutdown?==
http://www.theintelligencer.com/local_news/article_556f5c3a-3035-11e3-a9f0-0019bb2963f4.html
Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 3:41 pm
Republicans aren’t at risk of losing that much due to all of this that to their near nationwide control of re-districting a few years ago. They may lose a few seats, but they won’t lose the majority. There aren’t that many swing districts yet. But maybe they can get rid of some of their nuts!
Comment by Left Leaner Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 3:50 pm
The medical devise tax, collected on the sale of products ranging from pacemakers to bedpans, is expected to raise $30 billion over a decade to help pay for the health care law. So we have all of those complaining that Obamacare will be a fiscal disaster dumping one of its provisions that actually generates revenues and we have Al Franken on the left also supporting eliminating the tax because it impacts Medtronic from his home state. The Republicans can still walk away winners in their own minds if they are able to convince the administration to change their minds on the medical device tax. If self delusion is the price to be paid to end the shut down and avoid a default then so be it.
Comment by Rod Friday, Oct 11, 13 @ 4:32 pm