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* Steve Shearer’s anti-Bruce Rauner Republican Fund for Progress and Jobs PAC took in $485K today from labor unions. Expect more to come. I told subscribers about this earlier today.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 1:59 pm
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All well and good, but what are they going to DO with the money? Their efforts to date have been pretty ineffective.
Comment by Whatever Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:10 pm
===what are they going to DO with the money?===
“I told subscribers about this earlier today.”
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:11 pm
=== what are they going to do with the money? ===
Attack Rauner. LOL
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:14 pm
13 Days… Cutting it close.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:21 pm
Just wait for Rauner to say…I see your $485,000 and raise you $1 million, in 3-2-1……
Comment by N'ville Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:35 pm
Close? I don’t think so, but maybe.
But the problem remains that we have large number of undecideds which I think is indicative that with all Rauner’s problems, no one is really impressed with the other guys.
Right now I’d predict that a significant amount of the swing against Rauner will merely be fewer people voting.
btw, I’d be curious if anyone has a poll a couple weeks prior to the Feb 2010 primary that would tell us how many undecideds we had back then. Perhaps this isn’t that unuusal.
Comment by Poll Me Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:36 pm
=== I’d be curious if anyone has a poll a couple weeks prior to the Feb 2010 primary===
The key to that election is nobody was polling much above 20. The Jan. Tribune poll had McKenna leading with 19.
This time is quite different, as you can see.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:40 pm
I wonder how all the loyal Democrats that have been with these labor unions over the years feel about them rewarding someone that rarely, if ever, votes for them?
This is slap in the face to loyal union supporters.
Labor better get it together soon, and figure out what side they are on, or some Democrats may start voting against them as that seems to be the best way to get their support.
Comment by Demwonder Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:40 pm
well, I know there were lots of people in the race and no one running away with it. But my curiosity is with the undecideds. This just seems very high for a governor’s race 2 weeks out.
Comment by Poll Me Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:42 pm
- Demwonder -,
If they can stop Rauner now, then Union workers won’t be worrying come November.
Short-sided thinking leads to losing. It is beyond prudent to take two bites at the apple, not one.
Your ideals versus the strategy of political survival seem to have a disconnect. Attempting to stop Rauner twice is good politics.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:44 pm
That’s some real money. Farmer Bruce has the means to answer, of course, but they’re making it a fight.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:46 pm
- Poll Me -
You have 4 candidates, one mega-millionaire, 2 state senators, a “Statewide” in the middle of a scandal, Dem leaning groups, and 1%ers funding at least someone…
Not surprised in the least at the “undecideds”, and further, not one of the 4 has made the “Closing Argument” pitch to secure support OR started actual honest harvesting of “Pluses” already in the bank.
“Undecideds” - not surprised at all given all these dynamics.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:49 pm
As I said, I’m not surprised either for the same reasons as you. I was just looking for a comparison. With all the money rauner has spent, it’s certainly a red flag for the general.
Comment by Poll Me Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 2:53 pm
====The key to that election is nobody was polling much above 20. The Jan. Tribune poll had McKenna leading with 19.
This time is quite different, as you can see.====
McKenna polled at 19% two weeks before the election and he received…19% on election day,albeit third place.
I’m thinking Rauner will get close to 50% on March 18th.
Comment by Jerry Hubbard Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:03 pm
===I’m thinking Rauner will get close to 50% on March 18th.===
Yikes, you know how “negatives” work, right?
The next 10 days, it will negatives that Rauner has never faced, and Rauner is at 40%. It’s not about peaking, it IS about negative Ads taking a toll on the 40% until the end.
The 50% number is a bit “ambitious” given a 4 candidate field and closing arguments being negative, negative, negative.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:09 pm
Suffice to say, the unions should save their money for the general where Quinn will need all the help he can get. Its Rouner in a ‘millionaire’ slam in this primary.
Comment by Jim'e' Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:25 pm
===Suffice to say, the unions should save their money for the general where Quinn will need all the help he can get.===
Why not start getting the negatives rolling now? It is a worthy investment to start now, and not wait, and if you catch lightning in a bottle…
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:36 pm
Let’s just all make sure we take all of 2014 in. It is going to be one heck of a ride no matter what side you are on.
I feel like Flounder with the prospects of 2014 being the wildest we may ever see in Illinois politics.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=arZdeg_fL-I
Comment by Big Muddy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:38 pm
There is no way the Republican Party is able to unite around Rauner after the Primary. I can’t see Dillard, Rutherford, or Brady endorsing him. Rauner has scorched the GOP in Illinois, these union ads are a good investment. I’m still a little worried that 13 days isn’t enough time to build a strong negative perception.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:39 pm
Demwonder (Is that Dutch for Raunerbot?)
It makes great sense for labor to go after Rauner now. If they stop him — whew. And if they don’t, they get a head start on dirtying him up for the general. It’s a no-lose situation.
Comment by Soccermom Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:47 pm
–I wonder how all the loyal Democrats that have been with these labor unions over the years feel about them rewarding someone that rarely, if ever, votes for them?–
What about Pat Quinn? How do they support the guy who asked for and gleefully signed SB1? Has Dillard done anything that heinous for unions?
Comment by Mason born Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:47 pm
– I can’t see Dillard, Rutherford, or Brady endorsing him.–
I can’t see why that would matter. If the elected GOP establishment was strong, Rauner would have never happened.
Rauner has the guys who write the checks that get you on TV.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:49 pm
Whether Rauner wins or not, the unions probably figure they might as well get started on defining him. If he gets knocked off, great for them, if not, the ads have been run the same.
Comment by Lunchbox Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:50 pm
-OW-
If WAA’s latest is to be believed, I would not be at all surprised Rauner didn’t hit 50%. He’s at 40% with 26% undecided? Fifty is certainly on the table. Even if Shearer is able to make a massive buy, a good number of votes will already be cast by the time it could exert any influence on voters. Plus, this is really only a 4 person field in name only as, unfortunately, Treasurer Rutherford no longer has a legitimate chance to win and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which someone who hasn’t already made up their mind to vote for him, chooses to do so NOW after all that has happened.
For all the talk of union members who don’t ordinarily vote in GOP primaries voting this time, I just can’t see it happening in large enough numbers to significantly skew things. Not in this state where voters are, to borrow Nate Silver’s terminology, “inelastic.”
So, unfortunately, I believe Rauner has a decent chance at 50% in two weeks and that says a lot about the cynical attitude so prevalent amongst Illinois voters from both parties.
Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:53 pm
=Rauner has the guys who write the checks that get you on TV=
Exactly, Quinn and unions will be on TV. Rauner has gotten a free pass because his primary opponents have not been able to raise a dime by themselves.
Rauner will need these Republicans to come out and vote. This gubernatorial election will be very negative. Why would a Brady supporter want to wait in line on a cold day in November to vote for Rauner, a pro-life and pro-gay marriage GOP candidate.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 3:55 pm
Hopefully, these guys can create ads that move voters. Put a label/brand on the guy that would highlight his hypocrisy and how out of touch with the common man he really is. Show that he’s just another blowhard like Blago - I like the “Corrupter” but that’s just me.
Comment by Priceless... Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:04 pm
==Why would a Brady supporter want to wait in line on a cold day in November to vote for Rauner, a pro-life and pro-gay marriage GOP candidate==
Because he thinks Pat Quinn is really great and loves the 67% tax increase, so he/she won’t vote! That makes a lot of sense. Rauner is your nominee, get over it. I had to get over the fact that I was stuck with Brady in 2010, and I don’t want my dog gassed either.
Comment by Raunerbot Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:06 pm
I do indeed believe the poll.
While I believe it, momentum against Rauner is at least holding, and we have yet to measure the impact of these last negative Ads in the 13 days left, and then the GOTV will be critical if that 50% number can be hit.
I doubt the 50%.
The impact of getting actual “Pluses” to get to 50% in a 4-way race with a lack of field operations…and this new barrage of negative Ads…
Tough to see.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:16 pm
==with a lack of field operations…==
Mr. Willy, please admit that you have no idea what operations Rauner has or doesn’t have. You are just guessing from the sidelines, and employing wishful thinking to get past the reality that Rauner is going to win big.
Comment by Raunerbot Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:24 pm
==While I believe it, momentum against Rauner is at least holding==
In the last week Rauner’s lead went from 19 points to 25 points in this tracking poll. If that’s momentum “against” him then Quinn and unions are going to need to change their pants when Rauner gets a wind at his back
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:25 pm
===In the last week Rauner’s lead went from 19 points to 25 points in this tracking poll===
It was rebounding from two other polls leading up to tho poll.
Go look at the tracking poll graph. So, yeah, I feel pretty safe in my statement.
I said it was “holding” and given the last 4 polls, it is more circling back to 3 polls ago numbers, not a steady climb.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:32 pm
Mr. Willy has no clue.
Comment by Raunerbot Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:34 pm
===Mr. Willy, please admit that you have no idea what operations Rauner has or doesn’t have. You are just guessing from the sidelines, and employing wishful thinking to get past the reality that Rauner is going to win big.===
Enlighten me. You have no idea what sideline I am on, or what I may see, hear, or understand.
In Kendall, I see nothing that points to field operations prepared for GOTV in 13 days.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:35 pm
Poll graphs are simple to read. If they don’t help your narrative, a good Raunerbot finds another way to spin reality.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:36 pm
Good point about plusses, OW. I wonder if the Rauner campaign will in some way be hurt by, what appears to be, a not particularly close primary. A close race would have provided an opportunity to put together a field staff and GOTV crew that they would have been able to count on again in November.
Comment by Johnny Q. Suburban Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:49 pm
Blog, not bog
Comment by allknowingmasterofracoondom Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:49 pm
FYI, just got a robo sponsored by IEA (I think), anyway, she was a teacher asking I vote in the primary for Dillard. Yippie Kyyay.
Comment by Jim'e' Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:52 pm
If they are going to spend money against him now, they must think Dillard has a chance. Otherwise I think they would wait a bit before spending that kind of money (assuming the Republican PAC they are giving to will go dormant after the primary)
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:57 pm
Why does anyone spend money on robocalls? The research is overwhelming that they just honk people off.
Do you want to honk people off?
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 4:59 pm
When the Teachers, any of them, or ASCME… when they start actually gathering “Pluses” and not RoboCalling, then any or all of them will be cooking with gas.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 5:02 pm
Mr. Willy, I would never try to enlighten the opposition until after the election.
Comment by DuPage Rep Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 5:14 pm
Willy, remember who we don’t feed. Watching the debate tonight?
Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 5:18 pm
Sorry, - AA -, Raunerbots are like having uour own ort lemming that gad programmed responses of a “Magic 8″ Ball.
I am.
Pizza. Bought cannoli at Caputo’s so …
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 5:23 pm
- DuPage Rep -,
It was snark. The Kendall lack of presence was not.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 5:25 pm
“Sorry, - AA -, Raunerbots are like having your own lemming that has programmed responses of a “Magic 8″ Ball.”
Geez, I get thinking of cannoli and my typing goes haywire
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 5:27 pm
Rauner will win the primary not because he is a “winner”—but he’s not loser either. Brady, Dillard and Rutherford (due to his current situation) are either actual or perceived losers. Most people don’t want to associate with losers, so Rauner wins by default.
Comment by Buzzie Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 5:45 pm
With any luck the union money will be exhausted for the general
Comment by plutocrat03 Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 7:26 pm
=With any luck the union money will be exhausted for the general=
(On a smaller scale) That’s like saying Rauner’s exhausted all his personal wealth for the Primary
Comment by Almost the Weekend Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 8:03 pm
@Willy
How is the lack of a GOP field operation any different from previous years?
LOL
@Plutocrat -
Do not hold your breath. Nobody wants a billionaire Scott Walker in the President’s home state. At least, the potential downside is pretty awful.
It would be different if Rauner were more of a Bloombergian Republican. But he ain’t. He is venomous, and unfortunately he has the base so ginned up that it is going to be pretty tough to hang on to them through the General unless he keeps the venom flowing. He is pro choice, pro gay rights, Jewish kabillionaire…if he doesn’t keep talking like a crazy Tea Partier, he loses his connection to his base, because he certainly is not connected to them on values or common experience.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 8:04 pm
- YDD -,
Well, you have me there…lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 8:11 pm
” ain’t. He is venomous, and unfortunately he has the base so ginned up that it is going to be pretty tough to hang on to them through the General unless he keeps the venom flowing. He is pro choice, pro gay rights, Jewish kabillionaire…”
Really? YDD, OW, Word et al = I have been reading the flotsum and jetsum yoy have been spewing for months now. You have collectively crossed the line of decency and become disgustingly offensive! Get used to the reality of Governor Rauner - you don’t have the influence to change it.
Comment by A Citizen Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 8:39 pm
havnt seen one rauner yard sign yet
Comment by foster brooks Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 8:41 pm
If you want to address me, address me and only me.
I speak only for myself, not for any you put me with, and those shouldn’t have to be lumped with me.
What have I commented that wasn’t correct?
Attacking me does not make the facts any less true.
I am an individual, speaking only for myself.
OW
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 8:55 pm
== havnt seen one rauner yard sign yet ==
Haven’t seen a whole lot for anyone…
Comment by Oneman Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:04 pm
Methinks the unions have polls by live callers, not robo polls that voters hang up on, that show Rauner has dropped 11 points in two weeks and is under 30 percent. Time will tell.
If Rauner was on the verge of 50 percent, why would he be running negative ads on Brady and Dillard causing more hard feelings that will linger after the primary?
IF Rauner wins the primary, he will be wounded in a big blue state. First, he pissed off Schock and many of his supporters. Schock won the 2012 general election with 74 percent, so it is safe to say he has a broad base of support in his district in primaries and general elections. Then Rutherford publicly blamed Rauner for choreographing the roll out of the nasty Rutherford attacks. Like him or not, Rutherford has been all over this state for 20 years and remembers ordinary people’s names. His hard core base has dwindled but he will still get tens of thousands of votes in the primary. How much warmth will Rutherford supporters have for Rauner IF he wins the nomination?
Then there were the negative ads on Brady, Dillard and Rutherford calling them names. Now Rauner is airing specific ads against Brady and Dillard from the Rauner campaign itself. Then, many pro-life Republicans would rather skip the race for Governor than vote for a pro-abortion Republican. So that all adds up to a wounded nomination IF Rauner wins. There is also a noteworthy number of union members who do vote Republican in primaries and general elections. Many state workers in Sangamon County for example. Lots of trade union members all over the rest of the state. They are not going to vote for a candidate calling for right to work.
How better for the unions than to help Republicans hit Rauner hard, causing irreconcilable rifts with a good many Republicans AND start to define Rauner as the dishonest, corrupt fraud that he is?
It absolutely can work to defeat Rauner in the primary. Rauner has spent $14 million vs. almost nothing from the other candidates, and yet Rauner has at least 60 percent of Republicans NOT supporting him.
Notably, Rauner himself has helped solidify deep negative feelings about him by a good chunk of Republicans. Losing 20 percent of Republicans in the general election makes it rather difficult for a Republican to win in Illinois.
This effort is helping to make possible a Rauner defeat in the primary and at the same time damaging Rauner among the Republican/conservative base should he win the nomination. That’s why he keeps writing million dollar checks way above what he told donors last December that he would spend in the primary.
So add it up. IF Rauner was at a solid 40 percent and in good position to get another ten percent from the undecided column, why would he still be antagonizing supporters of the other Republican candidates AND still be regularly writing million dollar checks? If that 40 percent was solid in a three and a half candidate race now, he wouldn’t need a single undecided voter. So why is Rauner still being abrasive to his opponents at the risk of pissing some of their supporters in the general election? Because he and his top staff know this primary is not in the bag.
Comment by Commenteer Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:08 pm
=== == havnt seen one rauner yard sign yet ==
Haven’t seen a whole lot for anyone…===
The subtleties of all 4 lacking the skeletal ground game… 13 days out. The “3″ have funding issues, Rauner, with his lack if even being able to have a substantial bus tour…
Just a simple “point to” as where GOTV and field operations are…
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:16 pm
-OW-
What are your thoughts on this.
- IL Champ - Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:18 pm:
-Bobo-
Interesting comments. You may be on to something, but we’ll see.
Everyone is forgetting that Rauner’s negatives have yet to soar especially if the “killer ad” arrives. If he drops 7-10 points before the election and Dillard gains half of those, with all else being equal, we have ourselves a ball game. The race would be 30 Rauner and 20 Dillard. Undecideds and crossovers could make up the difference. The undecides have seen so much of Rauner; I think it is unlikely that they go with him or they would have already done so.
Additionally, millions are about to hit Rauner in ways he hasn’t really been deeply and unequivocally hit yet. At the same time, pro-Dillard ads will give the voters what they have been missing…a choice.
To gage this race, we need a few things.
1) A poll of likely voters to see how a hypothetical nursing home scandal affects their voting selections.
2) A poll of likely voters seeing how many can name the candidates in the race for Governor particularly to see who is aware that Dillard is running. It seems his name id may be still be low.
3) A poll asking likely primary voters which candidate is associated with a nursing home scandal.
Here is my logic. All anyone in the race has really heard is pro-Rauner material. The past attack ads may add a little negative in the mix, but those were relatively small ad buys over an extended time period. Current polling reflects this. Likely primary voters know Rauner is running, they know he is for term limits but that is about all. They have yet to be presented with a choice. The unions must believe they can change the race with money and voters. The above scenario is exactly the logic behind it.
If the polling shows high Rauner name id, low Rauner negatives, little voter knowledge of nursing home scandals and medium size Dillard name id. This race will change rapidly. We all know Rauner is ahead. What we need to know is what electoral strategy could change it.
Comment by DS Politico Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:39 pm
At least now we know what kind of a Republican OW is. If Rauner wins the primary, Oswego Willy will work to defeat him in favor of the Democrat. Willy, stop the charade. We know who you really are.
Comment by Bored Chairman Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 10:55 pm
===Oswego Willy will work to defeat him in favor of the Democrat. Willy, stop the charade. We know who you really are.===
I will? I will not be party to “Bruce Rauner” running as he is, like I and many others faulted Democrats for aiding a 2nd Term Rod Blagojevich. If recognizing that both Rauners are not who they say they are is troublesome, look at yourself.
I dinged Dems for supporting Rod when he ran for re-election. They went against their better self. I can’t criticize those Drms and then turn around and be party to Bruce Rauner.
I will never vote for Quinn. My ballot may very well be blank fur Governor, but I will not be party to Bruce Rauner, bring a hypocrite of those I blamed for Rod and going against their better self.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 11:04 pm
Why do you care about me anyway?
That might be the better question…
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 5, 14 @ 11:06 pm