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* The biggest winners and losers from primary day? Explain.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 3:03 am
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Loser: Bill Brady, who basically ran the same campaign every year with little marginal difference getting basically the same result, lucking out of the primary in 2010. Maybe this will finally be the end of the road for him. But who knows, maybe he’ll try to tie Oberweis in failed campaigns.
Biggest winners are television stations who will reap in the dough from Rauner & Quinn.
Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 3:48 am
Biggest loser: over-the-top negative mail. In both the Guzzardi/Berrios race and the Sandack/Matune race the negative mail pieces based on tenuous and inflammatory claims did not work. Negative ads and mail do work (the ones against Matune, for example), but they have their limits. Of the negative doesn’t hit, it’s more than just ineffective. It hurts the candidate making the claim.
I would say the unions are the big winners — they had a pretty good night. But making things close is not winning, so they are big but qualified winners. If they can bring things home in the general, the unions get an unqualified “big winner” label.
Comment by the Other Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 4:09 am
Winners:
Rauner. A win is a win. That organized labor got a bunch of government employees downstated afraid enough to crossover for Dillard to give him a late surge is irrelevant now and in November. They will go back to Quinn then, and it wasn’t enough yesterday. Rauner’s campaign is as smart as they come and they will be poring through the results to find their strengths and weaknesses in the coming battle.
Gay Marriage. The full assault by social conservatives ended up coming short. Voters have moved on.
“Indies.” I’m talking the progressive wing of the Chicago Democrats, who scored with Guzzardi and Boykin.
Losers:
Unions. Doing better than expected, but still losing….is still losing. They threw a ton of cash to beat Rauner, now they’ve got to spend even more to beat him in the General. And he’s going to use his resources to push up their negatives even more than they are now. Trying to spin second place as a moral victory is just silly wishful thinking.
Berios. The media hates him, and apparently so do plenty of voters. Joe got his daughter a seat, then he lost it for her. White progressives loathe him, and he’s pretty toxic among many Hispanics as well.
Guittierez. Backed another loser late in the game. This guy is pretty tone deaf, politically speaking. Luis is an embarassment who keeps the racial tension brewing in Chicago. He needs to go away.
Rahm. His favored candidate for County Commissioner lost, and labor put up enough dough to make Chicago pension reform tougher.
Comment by Bored Chairman Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 4:58 am
Dan Rutherford and Bill Brady are the biggest bubblehead twin losers. How dumb do you have to be not to release that splitting the anti-Rauner voter three ways was a sure loser. Rutherford staying in the race was past ridiculous given his high profile scandal. If one or both of these guys had dropped out 30 days ago Rauner would be spending the rest of his life raiding nursing homes and shaking down grandma. Instead, he is most the likely the next Governor of Illinois. The biggest winner, as always, campaign consultants that advised the losers, as in Rutherford and Brady.
Comment by Louis Howe Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 5:33 am
Madigan. The myth that you can’t challenge the Speaker in a primary and survive is badly wounded. His organization has failed to modernize for two decades, and that failure costs them more each cycle. Their recent embrace of the Votebuilder program, an amazing tool, was largely used as an asset to take away from people challenging the party.
Comment by ILPundit Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 5:43 am
Loser - Prekwinkle. Her organization was unable to put meaningful workers into two highly-visible cook county board races she had tried to intervene in. She failed to even motivate her base. Not a good showing for someone angling to run for mayor.
Winner - Chris Robling. Did a great job as pundit on WGN.
Comment by Chad Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 6:16 am
The biggest loser bar none:
We Ask America
I always took the Tribune’s polling with a grain of salt because they were inaccurate. You guys are worse!!!. Rauner winning by 11%? What did they have Erica Harold at? –18% and she got 41%.
Sure today we’ll gets loads of spin abput what went wrong and why they were unable to detect emerging trends.
We, the consuming public really need to hold the pollsters’ feet to the fire as so much ‘political truth’ is based on their work.
Comment by train111 Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 6:17 am
Loser: Preckwinkle…..Berrios race, county board races. do commercials and lose.
Berrios: can’t get your own daughter re elected. time to resign as party county chair. seriously.
Carol Teschky: Maine Township hilarity
Winners: Guzzardi, epic.
Millionaires, Rauner and Oberweis. of course that can be portrayed as not great. cue the commercials.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 6:25 am
Winner: The clear need for Instant Run-Off Voting in Illinois. Brady cost Dillard the election for the second time in a row. With IRV, the election would have went to Dillard.
Winner: Pat Quinn. He again gets to run against the Republican with the most attack points. I know Rauner has a ton of cash but ultimately, even most Republicans don’t want Daddy Warbucks running the state.
Comment by someonehastosayit Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 6:42 am
Winner: Quinn. As I correctly predicted (always nice to be able to say that), Rauner’s weakness was exposed as he went from +15 to +3 on Election Day. Can’t have that kind of GOTV performance in November. I just don’t see any statewide groundswell of support taking shape behind the guy. He’s got money, but other than that he’s a poor candidate. Quinn by 5 is the “Morning Line”.
Comment by snucka Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 6:47 am
Preckwinkle and Rahm lost — put thousands of dollars and resources behind a westside candidate in a coup attempt — westside and suburbs rejected it.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:06 am
Biggest losers- Anti-marriage-equality folks. No one lost because of the issue. And look at Ed Sullivan; he thumped his opponent. This debate is over.
Comment by Roland the Headless Thompson Gunner Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:11 am
To Other Anonymous: thanks, I thought I was going to have to come up with a clever blog name . Happy Blogging to you
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:12 am
The biggest losers are those folks who voted for Dan Rutherford even after it became clear that he had no chance. They followed him over the cliff and denied Republicans the opportunity to nominate a moderate candidate for governor. Rutherford himself is a loser for not abandoning his race early on and urging his followers to support Dillard.
Comment by CapnCrunch Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:12 am
Biggest Loser: Pat Quinn. How despised is PQ in southern Illinois? Tio Hardiman beat Quinn in 14 of the 16 southernmost counties. Anti-Quinn vote was huge!
Comment by Bocephus Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:17 am
Winners:
Guzzardi, have to say surprised by the margin was so large.
Senger, really thought she ran a terrible campaign and was outworked by the rest. But she won… Think she is not going to have much luck against Foster.
Rauner — A win is a win.
Quinn: the Dillard dem crossover kept the anyone but Quinn vote from being over 30%, still was a big number.
Losers
The folks who wanted Sandack gone, result still might change but a challenger with a little less baggage looks like they would have pulled it off.
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:23 am
Winners:
Will Guzzardi. You take on MJM, Chairman Berrios, run a “Progressive” campaign, and win it on the streets, you are more than an Election winner.
Hope for diversity in the GOP. Sandack and Sullivan both won, voting for SSM, and Cross won his statewide race. All three had targets on their back for thinking beyond a platform. Voters, didn’t flatly reject them, the won, be it a blowout, close, or razor-thin. I am glad all three survived and advanced.
Leader Durkin. The picture with Rep. Ives was more than fodder, it reminds me that Leader Durkin can take a diverse Caucus and try to make it grow. Bernie Petersens and Rosemary Mullugans get you to 60, and a Leader who can get cats to understand that, and seen defending the Caucus as a unifying group, and wins, I like how you do your business. Just stop looking for Frozen Strawberries.
Dan Proft. Breen and Ives are wins, and he took Sandack to the brink. That makes Proft relevant to the discussion, and makes, especially, the HGOP take notice that its not just screaming in the wind going on with Proft. He can win, and insert some influence, and take the apparatus on, and win.
Illinois. This state, the electorate proved that comparing itself to any state, be it neighbors or far away sun belts states, Illinois is a unique animal. The more that is said about “being like” or “just as”, the more the voters, in one voice, remind everyone that people vote for Illinois, not for what others want to see Illinois “being like” or “just as”. The Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, Texas, comparisons might send those using them to retire to; Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, or Texas.
….
,
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:29 am
Pretty impressive trying to spin unions as “winners”, Rich! They lost to Rauner, lost Mitchell and Pihos, and spent millions to do it. No brownie points for second place in politics. Bonus: Ron Sandack now is darling of moderate GOP. Watch for him to be a player.
Comment by Chicago Realist Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:31 am
The biggest winner - Rauner plain and simple, he went from nowhere to somewhere. We as people all have flaws and he is no exception but he ran a campaign that out worked all the others combined.
The biggest loser - Dan Rutherford. I have tried to find a positive for the guy - he is experienced in politics, he knows how things are played out but for the sake of the republican party, he should have exited the race and put support behind someone else. It would have shown character and integrity. Instead he hung around, whined about the lawsuit, talked about vindication and took votes that would have made a difference for Dillard. His ego of staying in the race is disappointing.
Comment by Peoria Voter Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:31 am
Biggest winner: An unknown Rauner who started with zero name recognition, no organization, and pulled off what everyone thought was impossible a year ago. He put his money where his mouth was and ran a strong campaign, hiring and following the advice of his campaign staff. If he acts the same way as governor, he will be a force to be reckoned with.
Second biggest winner: Ed Sullivan, Jr. who won strongly and exposed a wildly out of touch Republican leadership and Party Chairman in Lake County for what they are: clearly out of touch with those they allegedly represent in the county.
Biggest losers: Those who felt the calls for change in Illinois were nothing more than empty rhetoric. The voters are looking for something different and watch all the winners who didn’t demand change to suddenly adopt it as their latest war cry.
Comment by Louis G Atsaves Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:32 am
Winners: Unions. Sure they didn’t win, but they got late in the game and made it close. Also win that they got rid of a few candidates that voted yes on pension reform including Berrios. Those that think their power is weakening stay tuned. I have not seen union base, at least in my area, this together since….maybe never.
Loser: Rauner. Sure got the win, but many thought double digit numbers. LOL. Plus he spent 6 million of his own money to get the job done. I agree with snuka…Quinn by 5 and I don’t even like him. Quinns numbers will never be lower than they are now. Unfortunately for Rauner the general election is in November not March.
Comment by Sparky Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:33 am
Winner: All the mailmen in the 81st who don’t have to carry all the hate mail anymore.
Loser: Oberweis. He won, but is still going to lose.
Comment by Big Muddy Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:35 am
Quinn, once again he’s proven he better stay north of I-80.
Comment by I-80 Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:38 am
train111: Dude, that was an old poll. Last week they said it had tightened up considerably.
Comment by Just Saying Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:46 am
Winners:
Sandack and Sullivan. You can vote your conscience and win. The discussion on gay marriage in this state is over.
Losers:
The Republican Party, bought out by the .01%.
Comment by Wensicia Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:47 am
Losers.
Bruce Rauner. The rule in politics and the NCAA is “survive and advance”. You win 6 game in the Tourney by a total of 6 points, they call you National Champs. But, there was no Ground Game. None. All that money on TV, and the streets, in the last 14 days, working on the Fly, showed that unifying against the cash leaves gaping wounds. The screaming like a mad man speech and the overly exuberant Evelyn Sanguetti made all this spit and polish look rank amateurish. This is not like running for Student Council, but last night, you made it look like you are back in that Junior High School and got the Student Body a frozen yogurt machine. You lacked a Ground Game, 58% of the voters choosing to vote, didn’t vote for you, you hid your Running Mate, and dodged reporters and debates, you think acting like you did in your speech gives the impression of the adult in the room? You looked like a Billionaire gadfly, with cliche after repeated cliche, nothing prepared, and your running mate, barely visible, not unlike he campaign, with staging of a bad school play, and yelling and screaming your cliche with no sense of direction.
Bruce Rauner better “fundamentally change” the way he runs. The Ground Game, or lack thereof, was the Brady Achilles’ Heel. The Unions took off your pricey sock to expose it.
Amateur hour, from the no ground game at 6am, to the Dopey 10:30 or so Scream-Fest, leaving an interesting impression of someone so “together”, looked so unhinged.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:54 am
Biggest Loser - Krajewski and Boltz of Downers. They were the “force” behind Dillard, Truax, Grogan, Miller and Mutane. The “organization” did a lousy job wasting Republican cash in primaries on a whole handful of flawed candidates that they couldn’t wait to support.
Comment by Trader Vic Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:55 am
Biggest Winner: Money in politics. Rauner bought the primary, without ever having to put any there there.
Biggest Loser: An uninformed electorate.
Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:57 am
Gotta love people still talking about “winning counties.”
Comment by Empty Chair Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:00 am
Biggest winners: Rauner, Senger who many thought was sunk weeks ago, Sandack, Sullivan, Doug Truax who almost closed a thirty point gap in a couple of weeks and Dick Durbin because Oberweis held on and won.
Biggest losers: IL GOP who now has Oberweis at the top of the ticket, Dillard who sold every last ounce of his soul to win the primary and still leaves government in January, and
Comment by Amuzing Myself Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:01 am
Winners: People who followed election results on Capitalfax.
Losers: The portion of the electorate who will, once again, have to choose a governor they can stomach rather than a governor they can support.
Comment by Jeanne Dough Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:04 am
Winners. The voters of Illinois who seemed to reject establishment backed candidates by both Democrats and Republicans. I would say the anti establishment theme will carry thru to the November election. Candidates building on that message will be in a good position to win.
Comment by Downstater Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:04 am
Sanguinetti sounded a lot like Sarah Palin last night. I said it before the election and I’ll say it again: Bruce Rauner is not the guy to win a 2014 statewide race in Illinois. Then again, neither is Oberweis. What a pair.
Comment by Snucka Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:09 am
Jim Oberweis. At 420,000 votes, he lead the GOP in statewide contested races, with 26,000 more votes the second-highest, Tom Cross.
Obviously, GOP voters are hungry for change.
Oberweis clearly enjoyed a late surge from Lifetime Channel fans who were riveted by the heartbreaking, weeklong, marathon storyline of not knowing where he was, tropical locales, massive weight loss, the breakup of his first marriage and how he’s going to make love work the second time around.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:12 am
RE: Hardiman… the downstate counties he won were each in the hundreds of votes, and not many Dems live there. Quinn needs to focus on his base, not worry about how many primary votes he got in Mason County.
Comment by Snucka Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:13 am
Winner: HRO field staff for coming in the last week and saving Sandack.
Loser: HRO staff for having the fight of their lives this Fall with Train Wreck Bruce on the top ballot.
Comment by Cletus Purcel Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:13 am
Biggest Winner: Bruce Rauner. He will pull left starting today. He out Pat Quinn’ed.. Pat Quinn.
Biggest Loser: Unions. What do they do now when Rauner goes to the middle and makes the case to the taxpayer that our path is unsustainable. Look at were we rank in the country for job growth? I think the Unions will be better served working with Rauner than against. Right to work was a fear tactic to beat him in the primary. It didn’t work. If Rauner lays out real substance, as he has not yet, that will make a change….
Comment by Walter Mitty Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:14 am
Losers. Madigan and Berrios Crews. While no one can fault Berrios’ or Madigan’s Crews if they decide to spin the Maria Berrios defeat as a “second bite win”. But in reality, MJM’s crew is the best of the best in a Ground Game battle and they got it handed to them there. Joe Berrios is the County Chair, and while having everyone and “someone’s” brother on all these payrolls, how sadly ironic that its Joe Berrios’ daughter that, indeed, paid for the sins of the father.
Both MJM and Berrios, to me, had the most impactful loss in the entire Primary.
This defeat is more than a signal that motivated, organized, educated, and motivated ground forces can defeat MJM and the Democrats, given the right factors above, and including candidates willing to work harder, work smarter, and work together with a Crew that can drag you across the finish line. Comfortably.
Major fail on the levels of understanding voter sentiment, tired messages, gutter pieces masking deficiencies, and really just the idea that Berrios is now a liability, no matter how much we all pretend Joe Berrios is not.
By far the most impactful loss that will ripple for quite some time, and will likely change the landscape of Cook County and Illinois Democratic politics, possibly for a very long, long time.
…
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:16 am
Winner: Rauner who showed that money can, if you are very rich, buy an election.
Loser: Illinois voters and especially GOP voters. The general election ballots will now be headed mainly with candidates with many questions to answer if voters are to informed about their positions.
Major surprises to me were: 1) how far off the pre-election poles were in the GOP governors race and 2) how large the two anti-gun referendum votes in Chicago were, it was not even close.
Comment by Hit or Miss Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:17 am
Unexpected winner: Jil Tracy. While she may have lost last night, she dominated in Western Illinois. Carrying it with a significant vote margin.
Biggest Loser: Bill Brady. He will have very few friends in Springfield in the coming days as a result of his spoiler effort (intended or not).
Comment by DS Politico Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:19 am
Winner: Whomever figures out how to monitize negative Rauner cooments on CapFax
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:20 am
Losers: The people of IL who don’t think voting is important enough to take 15 mins to do it. The turnout in this state is almost always disgusting.
Comment by Belle Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:23 am
Winners: unions. They were able to show both sides their strength, and now both sides will come “a calling”. Rauner is no fool, and will see he needs, maybe not union support, but at least for unions not to go full bore at him. His best hope is that unions stay neutral. Quinn has treated the state employee unions like uninvited guests at the party, and will see that he needs to find a way to make amends if he wants to survive the general election.
Comment by George Washington Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:23 am
Karen Yarbrough might have the best ground force in Cook County.
Comment by Distant Viewer Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:25 am
Loser. Dan Rutherford. His political career is damaged greatly, perhaps never to return.
Winner. Radio and Television stations. The politics dollars are gonna roll in heavy between Quinn and Rauner.
Comment by John A Logan Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:26 am
Biggest loser….the Republican party which has a candidate who was rejected by 58 % of the voters.
Biggest winner…Pat Quinn…hard for me to say this but he has a winning populist position, he speaks for the little guy and there are more of them than rich guys. Come November he will be seen as the adult on the ballot.
Comment by Publius Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:27 am
Biggest Loser: Rutherford. He lost a lot more than a race. I doubt his descent is over…..a diminishing figure.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:37 am
Biggest Winner: Rauner, unquestionably. No name recognition to winner in such a short time frame. He has one great team of advisors behind him.
Biggest loser: Unions. Simply could not change the perceived fact that they have contributed heavily to the State’s debt.
Comment by Sunshine Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:39 am
Losers.
The “2″. Between Brady and Dillard, they now have run for Governor 5 times. Five. It appears the last 3 you both ran taught you both nothing these last two runs. Same mistakes, and new mistakes that compounded the old mistakes.
I missed the 1990s Dillard. The last 3 weeks, “that” Dillard tried to emerge, but standing in a rotunda as he did, and the turns “Right” began a long death knell, with chimes announcing the leaving of a fundraiser, followed by the leaving of voters who couldn’t see the old Kirk hiding in this new Kirk.
Relying on Unions to bail Dillard out sparks more about Dillard not finding a GOP sweet spot. Shrinking your core group of what you stand for is not adding voters, and I thought Dillsrd’s Crew might know that. I was wrong. No whining this time. Again, no Ground Game, Dillard lost all the Collars, including DuPage, and no Schillerstrom or Ryan to blame. The Union GOTV nearly made you a miracle. Dillard lost how this began; throwing a mess in a big pile, and seeing if it makes the campaign a winner. It didn’t.
Brady’s loss begins and ends with a $17K cable buy, touted. Everything else really is defined by that. The apathy of the voters, donors, the lack of energy is seen by that one moment defined by one buy. Brady ran who he is, and got his sweet spot numbers, but in reality, facing millions and millions, and negative spots without answers, hard to see a winning path, given those challenges.
These “2″ ran for months without attacking Rauner, and taking any sort of fight to Rauner’s Crew. They both got out-hustled in every imaginable way, and the one hope, a Ground Game, still led to voter apathy, a 20% uncontrolled turnout by both, and concession speeches heard by the core supporters.
You both lost the money game, message game, the oppo research game, the ground game, and this election. No blame except on yourselves.
I like you both very much. I tried to be a contrarian to help with a bright light others wanted to ignore, but at the bottom of it all, I like you both. I hoped for the best, as you both did, but mine was hope, yours was your campaign. I wish you both well.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:39 am
Winner - PQ’s speechwriter and his staff for convincing him to give it. The best speech he has given in five years. A theme, a coherent sequence, a perspective, a contrast It had it all. And no legal pad in sight.
Comment by On a completely different notw Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:39 am
Losers: We are. We now have to choose between Rauner and Quinn.
Winner: Rich Miller. Over the next few months that race should drive a lot of traffic here.
Comment by Sangamo Sam Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:40 am
Strangely-interesting-but-totally-irrelevant-fact from last night:
Rauner: 325,792
Quinn: 314,085
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:40 am
Winners:
Doug Truax (alright, so he lost overall.) But, the guy won Cook, DuPage, Kane, and Will counties, so I think he can use this as the foundation for another race. He just has to fundraise better.
Will Guzzardi: Fought the machine and won.
Pat Quinn: Hate to say it, but he won with a margin significant enough to delete the “discord within the party” headlines that would have followed say Tio Hardiman had received 35% of the vote.
Losers:
WGN punditry crew besides Chris Robling. Some of the analysis was cringe worthy. Time to get some fresh takes in there. Experience matters, but so does a pulse.
Comment by Lunchbox Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:41 am
Unions staying neutral is not an option. Quinn May or may not treat them like “uninvited guests”, but Rauner treats them like the waitstaff.
Comment by Snucka Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:43 am
==Strangely-interesting-but-totally-irrelevant-fact from last night:==
Though I wonder how many of the Rauner votes came from cross-over Democrats.
Comment by Wensicia Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:45 am
Sorry, I meant to say “how many of the Dillard votes came from cross-over Democrats.” Quinn lost those votes.
Comment by Wensicia Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:47 am
Winners - PQ now runs against a damaged Rauner & fractured Republican party. The Unions will hold their nose and support him over the alternative. Agree 100% with Snuka in fact my wife made the comment to me that Sanguinetti sounds like Palin. That anger and bravado isn’t going to play will in the General Election.
Losers - Clearly Rutherford & Brady came away clearly damaged and one could argue that if either one (or both) had withdrawn moderate Dillard would have won.
Comment by Stones Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:48 am
“Change” is the big winner.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:50 am
(Rauner +1.5% -120) vs. (Quinn -1.5% +110)
(Cross +3.5% +110) vs. (Frerichs -3.5% +100)
(Topinka-4.5% -150) vs. (Simon + 4.5% +140)
Not offering odds for the Attorney General’s race.
Comment by North Shore Joe Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:50 am
Winners: Pat Quinn…in state history, there has never been a NON PUBLIC EMPLOYEE win the Governors office. PQ may carry more downstate counties that the last election!
Comment by He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:53 am
Are cross-over votes urban legend or a fair tale? Promoting it is one thing; asking for a cross-over ballot on election day is a different animal. Big trouble if that’s your campaign strategy.
Comment by Bocephus Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:53 am
“Right to work was a fear tactic to beat him in the primary. It didn’t work.”
Not in my neck of the woods. All I saw on TV were the nursing home commercials. I think the unions have a lot of ammo to use against Rauner, with his previous statements on right to work, and of course, the minimum wage.
The biggest winner to me was Will Guzzardi.
I would like to share my personal story again about Will Guzzardi and Toni Berrios. I worked one day for the Berrios campaign, because I was enamored of some of the votes she took on issues that are real important to me. Did she vote for SB 1 the first time? Yes, but ironically I am probably more to the right on pension reform than some Republicans. I understand that the state is broke and don’t mind giving up some of my salary and pension in principle and practice to help.
Since I campaigned for Berrios and told her personally I would support her, I didn’t have it in me to go against her, even though she works for us, the taxpayers, and not vice versa. I felt that my word is very important and carries a certain currency.
On the day I was campaigning, I approached two middle aged Latino-looking gentlemen who were shoveling snow. I asked them if they would support Berrios, and one guy said eff no, and tell her to get the eff out of here because she never came around to visit here in all her years. He said Guzzardi was there twice. That counts.
Guzzardi was in my home and said he supports marijuana reform, progressive tax reform and collective bargaining. I support that stuff very, very strongly.
I don’t have a biggest loser at this point. I didn’t think Rauner would win by 20 points, but Dillard made it closer than I thought. The union attack on Rauner may have backfired, but the unions made a showing last night and will have another chance to get it right.
As much as it brings bile into my mouth, I would like to congratulate the Rauner campaign. A win is a win, and the campaign did a great job in staying focused in this particular race.
I also want to thank wordslinger for his analyses last night. He brought it straight, no chaser.
Finally, talking about right to work, if Rauner continues down that path that people like the IPI want him to take, that’s more fodder for the Quinn campaign. Rauner is on record saying that he supports right to work and lowering the minimum wage. Quinn’s and his allies job is to pin Rauner to the .01% label.
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:53 am
Son-of-Strangely-interesting-but-totally-irrelevant-fact from last night:
Truax: 328,377
Rauner: 325,792
Truax got some bang for his very few bucks.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:53 am
Loser. Dan Rutherford. I remember in real-time watching the Friday Fiasco thinking about how something on a Friday, mid-morning, could be so important. The “I am innocent, but I can’t tell you of what,” and the “this is false, but I can’t tell you the truth,” was watching the poorest PR political disaster in recent memory.
The Twitter and Facebook tweets and posts gave your detractors and the press easy targets to hang innuendo. Add that to the allegations surfacing, Rutherford helped in defining his own lack of defense in the campaign.
Rutherford had to answer for not releasing the report. The voters obliged. From a front runner two State Fairs ago, to single digits, it’s never the crime, it’s the coverup is once again the lesson.
I have no clue how this will now play out. The distraction of campaigning is over, both for the media and Rutherford. This serious case now is front and center, and beyond politics.
Rutherford lost because “trust” was lost by so many; Rutherford to a Staffer, Rutherford and voters, Rutherford and the media, and Rutherford trusting himself and his instincts. The lesson here could very well be trusting yourself and what you want others to see, know, hear, be it real or social media, the trust and once it’s lost, makes a loss inevitable.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:54 am
Short term winner: Rauner, who squeaked it out after all.
Long term winners: Unions in Illinois, who just tested some real muscle. This was not perfect success, but it was still pretty amazing. And it will only serve to increase Union confidence.
Probable long term winner: Quinn. If by chance the pension theft is declared unconstitutional by the Supremes before the November election, the Dems will have moved on to taxes (and that will take up the next for years) and it will be safe for Union members to vote Quinn. If the pension theft is ruled all or if a particularly damaging part such as the AAI theft is ruled acceptable, the Unions may instruct members to vote Quinn, but I wonder how many Union members (and State retirees) just won’t be able to force themselves to vote either Quinn or Rauner come.
Losers: Rutherford should have withdrawn from the race when he decided not to release the report.
Comment by PolPal56 Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:55 am
Biggest winners: Ron Burgundy, chad, Lunchbox’s Treasurer picks
Biggest losers: Northwest Dem, Frustrated Voter, Almost the Weekend, phocion, Eric Zorn, Techguy38, ronmexico
Oh, and my “Berrios in” pick. “WHOOPS!”
Source: https://capitolfax.com/2014/03/18/question-of-the-day-1784/#comments
Comment by Dirty Red Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:59 am
==Though I wonder how many of the Dillard votes came from cross-over Democrats…Quinn lost those votes==
Quinn was also going against one opponent vs 3 for Rauner. For all the critics of Rauner’s campaign on here, he got more people to the polls than any republican guv candidate in a long time. It’s rare for a candidate in a contest with 3 or more candidates to get North of 50, so to read into it that 58 not voting for him is a bad sign is just dumb. The margin was closer than the polls because of an orchestrated/unprecedented crossover that skewed the numbers, not because of bad campaign strategy.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:00 am
Augh! “…come November.”
Comment by PolPal56 Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:02 am
Loser: The Speaker. His people totally blew the primary in the 103rd, antagonizing people with a barrage of fliers that insulted voters’ intelligence and totally distorted their view of his candidate, who in fact is a very good person. From what I can see , they performed badly in several other races. May or may not still be the most powerful single person in Illinois politics, but significantly reduced power than he had going into this campaign season. His operation badly needs an overhaul.
Comment by jake Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:03 am
Thanks for the nod, Dirty Red! I almost nailed it with the GOP treasurer race. I was way over on the Oberweis percentage and Dan Brinkman finished in third in the 45th primary. Prognostication is not a future career for me…
Comment by Lunchbox Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:09 am
Rauner is the loser as Oberwies won and potentially could drag him down.
Rauner also won as Gay marriage is off the table and he is focusing on fiscal issues, so Iberwies may not hurt him as much.
Top hat and monacle makers win.
Watch makers lose.
Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:12 am
Heh so as of about 9 am: about 8 people have called Rauner a “winner” and 4 a “loser.” 7 “winner” posts for Quinn and 2 “loser.” And 3 “winner” posts for unions and 4 “loser” posts.
Gonna be a lot of spin between now and November.
Comment by ZC Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:13 am
Loser: bert miller for congress. Good candidate, horrible campaign. Outspent everyone in the race by $300k and finished 3rd
Winner: Darlene senger. Persevered through a ton of turmoil to emerge as a very strong candidate
Comment by KaneGop Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:17 am
== Gonna be a lot of spin between now and November. ==
True that…
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:21 am
Winners - MONEY!!! - Rauner & Oberweis
Losers - The People of Illinois!!!
I have to agree with
- Downstater -
Winners. The voters of Illinois who seemed to reject establishment backed candidates by both Democrats and Republicans. I would say the anti establishment theme will carry thru to the November election.
- Hit or Miss -
Winner: Rauner who showed that money can, if you are very rich, buy an election.
- Jeanne Dough -
Losers: The portion of the electorate who will, once again, have to choose a governor they can stomach rather than a governor they can support.
- Belle -
Losers: The people of IL who don’t think voting is important enough to take 15 mins to do it. The turnout in this state is almost always disgusting.
- Sangamo Sam -
Losers: We are. We now have to choose between Rauner and Quinn.
Comment by G.I.Joe Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:22 am
Hate to say “Loser” but sure felt like a loser and have to share.
Yesterday, a registered voter showed up, signed the registration form to vote, then could not decide on a political party required on the form. Broke away from the line, stared at the posted sample ballots for quite some time. No rush…and wandered back. Declined to identify a party, never took a ballot, did not want to vote after all and left the building.
Registered voter. Informed enough to know the correct polling place. Makes effort to arrive during voting hours to polling place. Does not vote.
Really have no idea what the thought process was, as all coaxing was about exercising the right to vote and nothing about choice of a party. But cannot help but think about low-turnout, someone caring enough to show up, but not caring a bit for the choices presented.
Comment by anonymoose Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:25 am
Biggest surprising underperformer: Brady downstate. Dillard cleaned up downstate, the area where Brady was supposed to be strongest.
Then again: Dillard lost his home county of DuPage and was soundly defeated by Rauner in the Cook suburbs and the collar counties. If Dillard performs even slightly better in his vote-rich home turf he’s the nominee.
Mixed bag: unions. No doubt their spending put a ceiling on Rauner and helped Dillard but I don’t believe the numbers support the assertion that there was a swell of crossover Dems and independent votes supporting Dillard.
Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:25 am
Biggest Losers : Bill Brady and Dan Rutherford - both vainglorious egocentric ‘candidates’ that have been part of the ‘Springfield Problem for a generation.
Biggest Winner - Bruce Rauner because the couldn’t buy him and they couldn’t bully him and they didn’t even see him comin’ !
Comment by SlapShotII Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:26 am
Losers: Citizens of Illinois whose voters stayed away from the polls in droves on election day. Downstate Illinois Republican voters who lost an opportunity to snatch the nomination from Rauner. Ultimate Winner:Pat Quinn who can look forward to re-election in November.
Comment by nikobey Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:26 am
United Postal Service as there is a will be a ton of mail to sustain their operations.
Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:27 am
Winners:
1. Christian Mitchell. Took on a highly funded opponent and won. He took some tough votes last year, which could have bit him. Instead, he now will be known as somebody with courage and with the toughness to win a highly contested race. He’s somebody who needs to be in the discussion when it comes to moving up. The sky is the limit for him.
2. Gov. Quinn. The reason he’s a winner is because the GOP went with Oberweiss. A lot of people who don’t care for Quinn are going to be scared enough of Oberweiss to show up, and while they are there, they will back Quinn. If Quinn can keep it close, that may put him over the top.
3. Dan Proft. He lost against Sandack, but he came close with a miserable candidate. While he doesn’t have a future personally in elected office, he’s made his name as the go-to guy for waging a fight from the far right.
Losers:
1. Bill Brady. Lost two in a row, and in both races showed a lack of understanding of campaign basics. Took a position on term limits that can haunt him. The only time his name is going to come up is when people say “when’s Brady going to retire?” “Bradyesqe” may be the new label for an incompetent campaign.
2. Joe Berrios. Any time your kid loses badly, you lose. Nobody is going to be afraid of him.
3. Erika Harold. At some point, you need to win. She chose the wrong time and the wrong contest. Two years ago, she had a future in elected office. Now she doesn’t.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:30 am
Anon 9:30, with Mitchell, Quinn and Proft as winners was me. My bad with adding the name.
Comment by Smoggie Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:31 am
Biggest winner: Bruce Rauner’s media consultant $$$$$$
Biggest Loser: Kirk Dillard - sold his soul and yet still so close, but so very far away.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:42 am
Semi-loser: Bruce “Money Can’t Buy Me Love” Rauner. Mister “2.7″ had money to burn and received a lousy bang for his bucks. When you sit opposite Jim Oberweis in months to come, he can explain to you that winning primaries does not translate into winning in November (Obie lost twice to Foster in the same year after winning two primaries).
He has the nomination, but has been exposed in the process. Illinoisans have been listening to his commercials for months and many were not buying.
Pat Quinn’s run of fool’s luck appears to have continued. He begins the general election campaign with the advantage. Rauner will also be unable to duck and dodge during the main event. He is going to have to answer questions on all of the issues.
Comment by Upon Further Review Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:50 am
Winner- Illinois (for a change) in that we saw and responded to some exciting, smart, young lights during this campaign who we will no doubt be seeing more of. Guzzardi and Truax to name a couple of them. The old guard and the family dynasties are essentially done. They just don’t quite realize it yet.
Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:50 am
Winners: Will Guzzardi. Carol Ammons. Jay Travis. Four weeks ago, no one knew of Travis, she was down by more than 25 pts. But because of strong groundwork of dedicated volunteers, she went up against Christian Mitchell who had a million dollar purse from Stand for Children IL & Madigan. Remember: this is exactly where Will Guzzardi was 2 yrs ago. If @clmitchell is going to do something, he better do it in the next two years…
Losers: My breakfast. “Ah yes, I was hoping to see a Quinn/Rauner ad, this morning” #SaidNoIllinoisianEver
Comment by @Adam_Heenan Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:51 am
Re: “jake”
The operation that held the House in the biggest GOP wave year in decades while every other midwestern state was awash in red, ran the table in the 2012 primary and got to 71 seats in the general all of a sudden “needs an overhaul.” Tell us more, master Jedi.
Obviously some things didn’t go their way, some things beyond their control, but it’s not as if this is the first time Madigan lost a primary he was involved in. Such is the burden of the Speaker and the reputation of his political operation, I suppose. Unless they win every race they’re involved in every cycle, the armchair consultants think he and they have lost a step. Do that at your own peril.
Comment by Just Another Observer Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:52 am
Biggest winner: The .00001%
Biggest loser: The citizens of Illinois - again
Comment by Capo Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:53 am
Loser Public employee unions. Spent millions and still couldn’t deliver. They even lost in other races they funded. Now, their membership is faced with two candidates they don’t like. That is not much of a motivating factor for the fall campaign.
Comment by Downstater Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:56 am
Losers: Ron Gidwitz. Spouting to everyone who would listen that Rauner’s margin would be “huge”. Then late last night it was going to be “7%”. Then he was in total panic mode. Oh, by the way, thanks also for saddling the GOP with another wasted Oberweis run. The irony that he will be a drag on your new-found pal Bruce is rich for many of us. Just write the checks and stay out of the “strategy” game. Inheriting a business doesn’t make you smart or a shrewd political strategist — your career as a ward committeeman aside.
Loser: DuPage County. It sure isn’t PateLand anymore. Imagine the DuPage of old not coalescing around one of their own. To see Rauner’s margin there is astonishing to me. I really thought they would “come home” at the end. I was wrong. It looks like Dillard was, too, and, he wears the collar for not giving them a reason to do so.
Loser: Bill Brady. You couldn’t win in an historic Republican year with all the money and support in the world. But somehow you thought you would win this year? For the love of God, go away.
Loser: Sue Scherer. Why the Speaker keeps propping this loser up is mystifying to me. Only Christian County kept her barely hanging on to a nobody who spent $3 on her campaign. Scherer is a disgrace to the General Assembly.
Loser: Proft’s ego. His ego had all the money in the world, his usual bag of dirty tricks and stop-at-nothing vile tactics, and his lack of character and still couldn’t even the score in his personal vendetta against Sandack.
Loser: Rauner. Somebody call Kyra Sedgwick, ’cause he needs a Closer. A win is a win, but they have lots of work to do, and many of us are skeptical. I don’t get how they think the Wisconsin message is going to translate here. I don’t get how a campaign with all the high priced talent had absolutely no ground game and finished so poorly. I don’t get why they needlessley turned off so many Republicans like me. I don’t get how a bunch so tuned into optics (Carhartt, $18 watch, beautiful pictures, etc.) translated into that optical abortion that was their election night victory speech. He looked like a madman, and his running mate looked like Michele Bachmann on steroids. Terrifying, and I should be an ally.
Winner: The People’s Republic of Urbana. I suspected you would send a message, but wow! Did you ever! Your socialist Utopian messenger is the one who will really shake up Springfield if she survives this fall. Congrats to Esther Patt, et al, for a drubbing that is sure to have reverberations for years to come.
Comment by LincolnLounger Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:57 am
Loser: Teachers Unions- lost nearly all races they really invested in: Dillard, Pihos, Mancke, A. Johnson, Reboletti, Tavis.
Comment by JSlim Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 9:57 am
Winner: Bruce Rauner, who probably won actual Republicans by ten points.
Loser: Pat Quinn, an incumbent Governor who lost 30 counties and 28% of the vote to an unfunded no-name candidate in his own primary. Also because he heads to a general election with abysmal approval ratings against a social moderate with unlimited funds.
Loser: Kirk Dillard, whose political career is over and who lost his home county by six points.
Loser: Government Unions, who spent millions and got tens of thousands to crossover to defeat Rauner, all for naught.
Loser: Berrios family.
Mixed bag: Jil Tracy, who gave up her House seat and lost but showed real strength in her base counties. She could be set up for a state Senate run in 2016.
Comment by Southwest Cook Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:02 am
Loser: Republican Party. This was the last hope to have a “big tent republican” in the Governors office with broad coalition support.
More importantly - this was the last chance the republican party had to bring union support back to the party.
Winners: Unions
Comment by Moderate Repub Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:03 am
Loser-
Rutherford. After a lifetime of respected service I’m just amazed by almost everything that he did and said in the last couple of months. Yes, he should have dropped out. That he did not may have been a legal tactic more than a political or bullheaded one, though. That’s the only reason I can come up with for his continuing his obviously failed run for Gov.
It does amuse me a little that there are quite a few folks who are sure “their” guy (but not necessarily the same guy) would have been the one to benefit had Rutherford dropped out.
Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:04 am
anonymoose: It wasn’t; but that could have easily been me or several people I know. Feel compelled to vote; but not being enthused about any of the choices and not feeling it will actually make a difference anyway (it didn’t as the ones who I thought would win, won). I know several (both Dems and Reps) who never even went to the polls due to dissatisfaction with the candidates. If it were an option, “none of the above” probably would have won.
Comment by Logic not emotion Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:07 am
Winners
1) Say what you want about CTU & organized labor, but they are energized and passionate. Guzzardi was great win. And for Travis to make it a close race after everyone was convinced it would be a blowout was a testament to their hard work. Statewide, all the polls were wrong. Dillard and Labor took Rauner to the wire. Sen. Kirk was right, they didn’t anticipate what labor is capable of.
2)Bruce Rauner - Money talks and he’s moving on to the big dance. It will be interesting to watch this next phase of his campaign. I agree with one of posters above, I think he hits a hard left and tries to “Out-Quinn” Quinn. Makes things clear as mud for voters.
3) Pat Quinn - Nice move jumping up on tv in large markets last night. It shows he taking his opponent seriously, which he should. Quinn’s gonna need to run the best campaign of his life.
Losers
1) We ask America polls - Awful.
2) Dan Rutherford - Feel bad for the guy. Should have dropped out.
3) Anti-gay marriage advocates - All that talk and nothing to show for it.
Comment by Corporate Thug Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:08 am
Er, Dirty Red. I predicted every winner yesterday. Margins might have been a bit off, though.
Comment by phocion Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:14 am
–OneMan - Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:20 am:
“Rauner cooments on CapFax
”
Looks like a Freudian slip!!!
LOL
Comment by WhoKnew Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:16 am
@Responsa:
Rutherford’s bizarre behavior over the past two months was like watching one of those World War II movies like “Downfall.” The high command is all assembled in the Berlin bunker while bombs are dropping overhead and still conducting strategy conferences and moving imaginary troops across the maps. I am really surprised that no one has posted a captioned YouTube video yet. It was all over when Rutherford held those awful press conferences, but he held on to the bitter end.
Comment by Upon Further Review Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:17 am
Loser is Dan Proft. How can anyone support a person convicted of a sex offense. Keith Matune has a bigger problem then his lose…it is his job. Cicero Dan seems to like the thuggish side of politics.
Comment by SonofSuperAbe2014 Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:18 am
– I don’t get how a bunch so tuned into optics (Carhartt, $18 watch, beautiful pictures, etc.) translated into that optical abortion that was their election night victory speech. He looked like a madman, and his running mate looked like Michele Bachmann on steroids. Terrifying, and I should be an ally.–
Must have been an open bar somewhere, lol.
That was quite the trippy end-zone dance, wasn’t it? Like my old football coach used to say, act like you’ve been there before.
I imagine Sanguinetti, when she’s not on the milk carton, will be campaigning on the remote trail blazed by Jason Plummer last time out.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:22 am
Berrios big, Rutherford lost about every thing, Madigan and the Unions.
We will see if Rauner can beat Quinn. I think he will unless the Unions, swallow their pride and give Quinn a ton of money.
Comment by Mokenavince Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:24 am
Chris Nybo pulled a Lazarus yesterday. Not only did he defeat a seasoned politician in Rep. Reboletti but also positioned himself as a new generation Republican who will likely appeal to both Dillard and Rauner voters. Let’s hope he fits in better in the Senate than he did in the House with his own caucus.
Comment by Imjustabill Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:24 am
Loser, the 42nd who will have Jeanne Ives for another term.
Comment by DuPage Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:26 am
Losers: Citizens of IL
Winners: Wingnuttery
Comment by Pensioner Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:27 am
Rauner’s acceptance speech was an embarrassment to all of Illinois. Must have been a cheerleader in college. Complete absence of dignity. And he is supposed to Bring Back Illinois? C’mon Man!!!
Comment by Big Joe Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:31 am
lol Jake. The grad students on Ammons campaign made better mail than the garbage the supposed ‘professionals’ from Madigan put out for Rosenberg. Madigan and anyone who believed he’s a magician are definitely the biggest losers last night.
And Ammons went negative on the speaker and it worked with voters
Comment by Urbana girl Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:34 am
Biggest loser is Jimmy Weise
Comment by Machine Guy Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:36 am
The 4th Ward did not have a good day. Jay Travis beat Christian Mitchell in the ward 1596-1347 (54-46%). Mitchell’s margin of victory was provided by the 42nd and 2nd Wards.
Comment by Imjustabill Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:39 am
The House Dems operation has been going downhill since Thompson left. Now even the mushrooms will notice.
Comment by worried Mushroom Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:39 am
Rutherford lost his last chance to get back at the people he suspects derailed his campaign.
He could have withdrawn and threw his support to Dillard. That might well have stopped Rauner.
Comment by DuPage Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:41 am
Loser: Team Rauner’s acceptance speech. Reminded me of the famous Yee-Ha speech from Howard Dean.
Comment by Johnnie F. Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:43 am
Winners: Paid media that will be awash in campaign funds for the general election.
Losers: The residents of Illinois who will endure the most expensive, negative campaign in history.
Comment by overcooked Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:44 am
Winners:
Guzzardi-a true message to the powers that time is up.
Quinn-the Democrats are going to have a unified, diverse and professional ticket.
Term limits- I think this will be more popular than most think.
Losers:
Rutherford-completley done. Acted as a spoiler to ice the cake on the most pathetic and embarrassing campaign imaginable.
Unions-they should have won this easy but now have to crawl back to Quinn with hat in hand.
Rauner-I would have put him in the win category but after seeing his Howard Dean like acceptance speech I decided, no matter how much money, he’s just not ready.
Comment by Bobo Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:46 am
Big losers last night: Former Tim Johnson staffers. For the second time since your boss quit, you lose big. Just face reality already: it’s not a seat that “belongs” to you or Champaign. You chose….poorly.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:47 am
Winners—The Downstate Counties that were perceptive enough to vote against Quinn(in the Dem primary) and against Rauner(in the GOP primary).
Losers—Illinois citizens who will suffer thru the campaigns of Rauner and Quinn thru November. This is thanks to the Chicago area voters that caused Rauner and Quinn to be the nominees of their parties.
Comment by JoeInPeoria Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:51 am
Loser - Rutherford. I guess he can spend his free time using an AR 15 to shoot the beavers on his property. Couldn’t believe the guy said the word Beaver.
Loser– Berrios and Madigan. They have to start wondering if their time is at end.
Loser — State of Illinois. 16% turnout is shameful. Grass root participation is the only way voters can take back the state from moneyed interests, career politicians and lobbying groups.
Winners — CTU. They organized spent and fought for the first time, beat Mitchell on his home turf — his win came from voters in the 42nd ward care of Brendan Reilly, just like his first victory two years ago — and if they take this experience and build on it can be a force in the upcoming municipal elections.
Comment by truthteller Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:53 am
Winners
Jill Tracy- Has a bright future.
Dick Durbin- Thanks to the Oberweis win.
Losers
The Berios Family
Bruce Rauner. I think his showing downstate shows a potential big problem. I don’t buy that Dillard’s showing downstate was due to public employee voting. While that is part of it, especially in Sangamon county, I think Christian Social Conservatives were voting against him because he is pro-choise. This presents a big problem because many of these people are so passionate on that issue that will skip the election or at least skip that race.
Pat Quinn Has a lot of work to do downstate and to coalesce and energize his base.
Comment by VPlena Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:54 am
Winners always need a ground game, of course. But a new generation of pols coupled with voters who are plainly increasingly disaffected from the old ways also creates openings for a new generation and breed of media advisers and campaign staff strategists. It’ll be interesting to see who rises to the occasion.
Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:56 am
“Just Another Observer”, if House Dems keeping the House in 1994 is the last example of a Madigan political win you can point to, you’re proving Jake’s point for him. No wonder House Dems have such a smaller majority than Cullerton under the same map.
Comment by worried Mushroom Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:56 am
Winners: Durbin - dude you got Obie - he’s the second best opponent you could ask for (Alan Keyes is first) Also: Reps. Christian Mitchell, Ed Sullivan and Ron Sandack - for voting their consciences and standing up to extremism. Great job and congratulations to all three of you.
Losers: Public employee union dunderheads - wow did you guys pull the plug on your anti-Rauner campaign too early or what? Margin of victory was 22,000 votes - DOH! You could have had this guy. I would have really loved watching Dillard vs. Quinn.
IMHO the decision to pull the plug on the anti-Rauner campaign has to go down as one of the biggest political miscalculations of all time.
Comment by Siriusly Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:02 am
Loser Madigan
His ally berrios went down in flames and he supported derrick Smith who went down also
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:07 am
truthteller — Winners — CTU. They organized spent and fought for the first time, beat Mitchell on his home turf — his win came from voters in the 42nd ward care of Brendan Reilly, just like his first victory two years ago –
For the record, Reilly worked against Mitchell 2 years ago when the 42nd Ward delivered big for Mitchell.
Comment by Linda Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:08 am
Loser-Illinois voters 16% turnout, you get the government you deserve. Early voting, absentee voting, vote by mail, we still can’t find 10 minutes somewhere to vote?
Comment by OurMagician Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:08 am
Illinois lost because of the egos of two perennial candidates who didn’t have a chance.
Bill Brady ought to get a permit every four years to put up signs and carry a soapbox, and stop cluttering up the GOP ticket with his fantasy that will never come true.
And Dan Rutherford should have done the right thing and manned up about the investigation and dropped out of the race once he knew he had no chance. If you are not going to take reporters questions after debates and you are not going to interact with the media at all then you aren’t really running. So why screw it up for someone else? Ego
Comment by Irish Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:17 am
Loser: Rauner
Sorry Rich, forgot to add that part.
Comment by low voter turnout matters Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:20 am
Winners: Leader Durkin and HRO staff that took a big first step in building an actual caucus. The Pihos loss aside, they had a good night.
Will Guzzardi: beat Madigan/Berrios handily and will start off in Springfield as more than a regular freshman.
Losers: Rep. Patti Bellock. As an Assistant Minority Leader, she pulled her endorsement of Sandack during the last week of the primary while he was on the ropes, essentially announcing to her caucus that if you are under attack, don’t count on me to have your back. Kinda the mirror opposite of Leader Durkin.
Kirk Dillard. He lost DuPage again as he did in 2010. All these little skirmishes his guy Krajewski gets involved in locally diverts DuPage resources from Dillard in DuPage. He did it to Dillard in 2010 and did it again, there #1 focus was clearly Matune and not Dillard. Just bizarre.
Comment by South Dupag'er Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:22 am
==if House Dems keeping the House in 1994==
2010 was the massive GOP wave that Madigan beat back. And Madigan didn’t keep the House in 1994, he lost it. Taken back in 1996. And I’d say getting a supermajority in 2012 was a significant win. Are you new to this game or just that unaware?
You sound like someone with an axe to grind for personal reasons. I can’t help you there.
Comment by Just Another Observer Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:22 am
We forgot a key, but albeit somewhat obscure post
WINNER: Glenda Miller, treasurer-elect of McHenry County. She navigated a fractured GOPie apparatus to post a big winner.
LOSER: Rest of McHenry GOPies who could have avoide several devisive primaries.
Comment by circularfiringsquad Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:22 am
Hard for me not to see how Dan Rutherford not the biggest loser…. What a disastrous setback for a once GOP rising star.
Comment by ZC Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:25 am
Big winner: my doctor, as I am sure to become sick once I vote for the guy I will have to vote for in the fall. A referral to a GI tract specialist may be necessary, and that person will become a winner as well as frequent visits may be in order.
Big loser - my stomach.
I was really hoping for a better option this time.
Comment by low level Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:30 am
Biggest surprise : Wordslinger played for Ditka….Dang!
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:37 am
Well, at least Responsa didn’t use the phrase “next generation.” Someone might have accused the post of getting close to an advertisement for someone.
Adding on: I think voters who follow politics closely (or somewhat closely) are so fed up with some of the negativity that they’re now paying attention to who is hired to consult and their methods, including what they do and say–and that the consultants’ behavior matters when it comes to casting a vote. I also think that with all the umm…”controversy” lately regarding payments to friends and family for campaign work, unpaid volunteers (the real unpaid volunteers) are becoming more hesitant to stand up and pitch in for certain candidates.
If true and even somewhat prevalent, I’m not sure how those “feelings” will translate into action or inactivity and what will be done to correct or substitute such involvement. It will be interesting to watch whether that will happen–and while it has the potential to do some damage to the involvement and participation some see as a duty, I’m hopeful that the good candidates will be able to come up with a solution that will keep Citizens fully engaged and active.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:42 am
Biggest Winner: Quinn. The unions were very angry at him over pension reform and the management bill. They were prepared to back anyone else, but Rauner made it clear that Quinn would still be better then him when it came to the unions.
Biggest loser: Rauner. Rauner should have started out courting the unions. he should have noted that any problems with overly generous wages or benefits was not the fault of a union that was doing its job, but the the entrenched governemtn that gave them those things. He could carry thorugh his term limits theme and anti-carreer govenemtn folks while propping the union up for being a successful business and negotiators.
Instead he deicded to hate them for doing their jobs well; I suppose now that opens the door to hating on himself for being good at the investment game. Change powerful unions bosses in his peices with powerful billionares and you can reuse all of his attacks against him. After all what is the negative fact he doesnt like about unions? they did well at negotiating? So His message is being successful or good at what you do is bad and governemnt should stop you? so he is ant successful buisness.
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:43 am
Jil Tracy is the GOP’s best hope to take out John Sullivan. Needs to happen in 2015.
Comment by John Wood Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:44 am
–Rauner should have started out courting the unions.–
Only if he wanted to completely self-fund. He wouldn’t have raised all that dough playing nice with unions.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:45 am
2016, I meant.
Comment by John Wood Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 11:45 am
= Only if he wanted to completely self-fund. He wouldn’t have raised all that dough playing nice with unions. =
His bussies would have put in anyway, particuarly when they have the machivellian chat that the path to vistory is through votes, and they need the unions.
They are not grabbing voting blocks with an anti union message, so he just tells Griffin and company that he is going to do what is needed to get the votes.
I think it would have worked, imagine Quinn running without union support. They helped carry him last time against Brady. and it was relecutant then as well.
Stick to the main theme, the current governement is inept/making bad decisions. Let them carry the water for the giveaways.
Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:00 pm
Oberwies I, thought his residency issues would hurt him more.
I also was surprised at how close Dillard got to Rauner once the down state votes came in.
Comment by 3rd Generation Chicago Native Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:10 pm
Losers Anyone watching local TV or listening to radio, we are going to be bombarded with Rauner.
Comment by 3rd Generation Chicago Native Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:13 pm
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
- Sun Tzu
I think it is worth mentioning what a great night John Cullerton and the Senate Democrats had last night.
He took some heat for trying to find compromise with organized labor, but Cullerton only had one contested primary yesterday, and Harmon was never in doubt.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:15 pm
Winner: Illinois Policy Institute which in Rauner and Oberweis got the two candidates who will parrot their organization’s positions.
Loser: Illinois Policy Institute which in Rauner and Oberweis got the two candidates who will parrot their organization’s positions.
Comment by Buzzie Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 12:49 pm
Winners: Media collecting cash for time & space.
Losers: Everyone who watches or listens to those ads instead of using the mute or another method of ignoring them. Exception: Rich asks for an ad rating at CapitolFax.
Reason for hope — Instead of donating to campaigns as he had done in the past, Rauner nearly failed when buying one outright!
Comment by Hans Sanity Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 1:45 pm
Losers: Illinois State Employees and Retirees
Winners: 401-K managers that are connected to Bruce Rauner
Comment by RJ Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 2:00 pm
Winners:
The Cook County GOP for having the courage to endorse Rauner, before anyone else thought it even possible.
Losers:
Rutherford’s Career implosion
Dillard by embracing the wrong political backers
Comment by nuttyGOP Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 3:38 pm
I feel that we are all losers. Once again the majority of voters in IL will have to hold their nose and vote for a Gov candidate that they don’t like and only think their guy isn’t as bad as the other guy. That’s not a good choice or a good motivation to vote.
Comment by SO IL M Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 3:56 pm
@VPlena:
Since Quinn is also pro-choice, possibly more so given his connections to Personal PAC and Terry Cosgrove, pro-life Christian voters should sit out the election to punish Rauner for being pro-choice to some degree?
@nuttyGOP: Does the Cook County GOP deserve credit for selling their endorsement to Rauner? It was not about courage, it was about cash. Rauner made contributions to various organizations.
Comment by Oh Come On! Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 4:45 pm
=== Will Guzzardi: beat Madigan/Berrios handily and will start off in Springfield as more than a regular freshman. ===
LOL. I hope for his sake and the district that Guzzardi does not step into the state capitol with that attitude.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 5:06 pm
Linda — I was not as articulate as I should have been. Mitchell beat Kenny Johnson to get the seat by clobbering him in the 42nd ward precincts. Brendan was supposed to deliver the ward to Kenny but didn’t. I was told Brendan GOTV for Mitchell this time around.
Comment by truthteller Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 5:10 pm
=== Will Guzzardi: beat Madigan/Berrios handily and will start off in Springfield as more than a regular freshman. ===
See how well that has worked for Ives and Drury to get an answer to how those who are Freshman and “teach” are received.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 5:24 pm
It was great to see Truax and Grogan put up good fights. Both these candidates were in the race for the right reasons, but lost to well funded opponents who were in it for the wrong ones.
Comment by an innocent observer Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 5:32 pm
Linda and Truthteller,
Mitchell and his people campaigned aggressively in the 42nd Ward in both campaigns. Those who live up here saw him. He was a real presence.
This time, it was the same thing. A lot of mail, and once again he was around.
We never saw Travis. I never met her and other than mail, never saw anything from her campaign.
On election day, Mitchell had people up here, and Reilly had people out also working. Reilly’s people also made calls to drive turnout.
With a district like 26, you are going to lose if you ignore part of it.
Not to digress, but the other thing was that what we did see of Travis made her look like a one issue candidate. Our mailboxes were filled with stuff on the race, but Travis made no attempt to raise any other issue than pensions. Given that Mitchell’s vote on the issue was pretty popular in 42, basically all the mail that was sent out had the ultimate impact of being pro-Mitchell.
Comment by Skeeter Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 5:37 pm
Loser: Steve Kim.
Signed on as LG to a legit Gov candidate - and then had to stand by open mouthed and slack jawed as Rutherford faded away.
Comment by Illinois - You Put Me In A Happy Place Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 5:42 pm
Biggest Winner: Governor Pat Quinn, who with a BETTER-than-Expected Landslide Victory, will have the Entire Weight of the Illinois and National Democratic Party behind his now altogether UNIFIED Re-election Effort.
Biggest Loser: Dan Rutherford–what can you say, he was SO bitter, and almost vengeful to put it mildly, in his Concession Speech, and other than fighting his ugly Lawsuit, it’s painful to admit politically, but it’s just hard to ever really see him re-emerge to ever again be in the Position he WAS in, to have a real legit. shot at a Big Office like Governor–UNLESS he IS fully vindicated, which he insists he will be. But for the time being, and even for what would require a “cooling off period” of sorts IF he can somehow overcome ALL the charges made against him, he really has nowhere “UP’ to go again anytime in the near term, and if he LOSES the Suit, then it’d be pretty likely for good….
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:01 pm
Wordslinger @ 10:22 am–by the way, I couldn’t agree with you more. The two of ‘em were almost scary, even embarrassing with the way they were rambling on in no organized fashion, and whether they were drinking a lot or not(and it’d speak volumes about them as candidates if they WERE alreadly at that point, in my view), Rauner’s facial expression almost turned violent as he wildly attacked Pat Quinn, not to mention how he never even BOTHered to show the normally-expected grace and class in acknowledging ANY of his 3 GOP Opponents, nor uttered a word to any of them for having run hard-fought, decent Campaigns, etc. Just really distasteful.
Comment by Just The Way It Is One Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:27 pm
@Bored Chairman
==Guittierrez==
That’s “Gutierrez.” It’s Spanish, not Klingon.
Comment by ppanda Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:31 pm
Biggest winner: Evelyn Sanguinetti. Fresh face, rising star. Biggest loser: Dan Rutherford. Talked in the third person and pointed at the camera in election materials.
Comment by Basketball Jones Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 7:32 pm
Do yourself a favor and turn your tv/radio off for the next six months.
Comment by Donkey Dem Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:21 pm
Dear Mr. Speaker: You’ll be fine.
Comment by Just Me Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 8:41 pm
I figured out the real losers in this election.. It is those who have to work for Rutherford for the next 10 months
Comment by Bobo Wednesday, Mar 19, 14 @ 10:31 pm
I like it whenever people get together and share opinions.
Great website, continue the good work!
Comment by moving companies dc Tuesday, Mar 25, 14 @ 3:11 pm