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* Reboot commissioned a new poll…
Conducted June 10 and 11 by pollster We Ask America, the survey below contains responses from 1,075 registered voters on the broadest question of the election: “If the election for Illinois governor were held today, for whom would you vote?”
Among all respondents, Rauner registered a 10-point lead (47-37, with 16 percent undecided). But Quinn had a commanding lead in Chicago, where his huge showing in 2010 helped him claim victory by a margin of less than 1 percent (46.79 percent to Bill Brady’s 45.94 percent; a difference of 31,834 votes).
“History teaches us to not make strong assumptions from these early polls,” said We Ask America CEO Gregg Durham. “Four years ago, Pat Quinn trailed Bill Brady by 10 points in August and fought his way back to win a close victory. Rauner’s lead in the collar counties and downstate is strong and may hold, but Cook County is the real battle ground.”
The poll shows Quinn leading 65-18 in Chicago, which is pretty darned good for Rauner. The Democrat trails the Republican 36-44 in suburban Cook, which is also pretty darned good.
* And, as we’ve already discussed, FiveThirtyEight gives Rauner a 75 percent chance of winning.
But Larry Sabato checked his crystal ball and rates the race a tossup…
Even though the Land of Lincoln is deep blue, Quinn is deeply vulnerable for many reasons, including recent allegations that an anti-violence initiative he started in 2010 is being investigated for possibly being a “political slush fund.” The GOP apparently chose wisely in its primary by selecting wealthy businessman Bruce Rauner, who is trying to position himself as the sort of outsider and moderate Republican that the state elected governor in the 1970s through the 1990s. […]
If Democrats can mobilize their large party base in Illinois and Connecticut, for instance, that alone would save Quinn and Malloy.
* The Question: What percentage chance of victory would you give Bruce Rauner? Make sure to explain your answer, please. Thanks.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:01 pm
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–The Democrat leads the Republican 65-44 –
The math doesn’t work there.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:04 pm
55% - slightly better than even money based on polling lead 5 months out, but the current rise of far-right populism (see: Cantor/Brat in VA-7) is going to make it hard to rally the base south of I-80 for a candidate that is an unapologetic member of the 0.1%. Rauner’s current margin in Cook is nice for him but the key is going to be the turnout not the margin.
Comment by Ali Nagib Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:06 pm
Thanks, Word. Misprint on their end and I didn’t catch it. lol
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:08 pm
– (see: Cantor/Brat in VA-7) –
I wouldn’t extrapolate anything from a GOP primary for a gerrymandered GOP Congressional district centered on Richmond, VA., and apply it to an Illinois general election for governor.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:11 pm
I’m new at this, is Rauner leading Quinn 44-36 in Suburban Cook good for Rauner or Quinn?
Comment by Noy Noy Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:15 pm
@wordslinger: I’m not trying to extrapolate very much from that race, which obviously had many other factors involved, except for the part about the rise of populist attitudes on the right. To unpack it a little further:
A) Populism is at least marginally on the rise on the right nationally
B) That rise should apply at least somewhat to Illinois
C) The rise will negatively impact base turnout for Rauner
Just curious which part you disagree with. I’m not saying I’m correct and you’re not, but I’d like to know where you see it differently. I could have also made the same point about Rauner’s views on certain social issues which I think have a similar effect.
Comment by Ali Nagib Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:22 pm
When you work night and day, the turnout is sometimes 110%
Way too early to make a prediction. Either candidate can win. That’s really saying something when you consider how Quinn’s terms have been.
Comment by plutocrat03 Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:22 pm
==Rauner leading Quinn 44-36 in Suburban Cook good for Rauner or Quinn?==
Brady got a little less than 40 in suburban cook in 2010.
Comment by DuPage Rep Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:25 pm
44-36 in Suburban Cook great for Rauner. Obama beat Romney there 64-35 and Quinn beat Brady 54-40.
I also give Rauner 75% chance of winning, but the Dems will close the gap so he only wins by 4-5 points. Quinn is not popular with anybody and independents seem to be breaking for Rauner big time.
Comment by Southwest Cook Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:26 pm
Today I would give Rauner a 60% chance of winning. But, its early and Quinn survived a close race four years ago and potential challengers in a primary this year. He is either lucky or good ( my guess is lucky). Turnout in Chicago will be key and I’m just not that sure the base on either side is very energized. So a large turnout is unlikely.
Comment by Fayette County Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:27 pm
I have this at 2.5 out of 5 for Rauner’s Crew or 45% chance of winning.
“Explain…”
Turnout isn’t my bugaboo, and message or even negative press for Rauner.
Can that Crew gin up enough “pluses” that they truly identified, and get then to the polls to be votes?
Everything the Dems have done is about increasing turnout of base voters, and Rauner has no clear identified “base voter” in a regional sense, except Lake County.
Rauner won all the Collar Counties in the Primary, but will the Rauner Crew be sophisticated enough to identify who their real actual voters are, and vote them?
“Anyone but Quinn” is not an “ID’d pluses” strategy.
The last 3 weeks of Quinn-Brady is what the Rauner Crew will face to get Rauner over the Finish Line. It is not a cake walk.
One win for Rauner is based on just “Anyone but Quinn”
One win for Rauner is the $54 million just being too much to overcome for Quinn.
The “half” is a half-baked Ground Game, that squeaks enough voters out in very specific areas to bake the cake.
2 1/2 out of 5, 45%…today.
Brady’s Crew, in reality, would have taken those odds on Jund 11th 2010…
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:28 pm
Right now, I’d put it about 60-40 Rauner.
Quinn won a squeaker last time. He’s never piled on the votes, even when he’s won statewide.
Rauner should have a lot more cred on the North Shore/suburbs than Brady, and has made efforts to peel away votes in the city, which Brady never did as far as I can tell.
Rauner would be wise not to continue to be wish-washy on gay marriage or tilt right in any way on abortion, guns or unions. Those votes are in the bank already; they have nowhere else to go.
Now if he could just shine up some apples for some teachers….
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:31 pm
=== The poll shows Quinn leading 65-18 in Chicago, which is pretty darned good for Rauner. ===
Did you mean good for Quinn??
Comment by Just Observing Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:36 pm
I’d give Rauner a 45% chance of victory. There’s no real proof that his needed base of support outside Cook County is going to show up at the polls based on his primary results. The race will come down to Cook County. If Rauner can’t get 22% of the vote in Chicago: it will be difficult to win. Plus, Pat Quinn will have same day registration going- good luck to the Rauner campaign on that one. Who could forget that the Republicans don’t even have candidates slated for the election at the local level! Good luck to Rauner on motivating the base in Cook County!
http://politics.suntimes.com/article/chicago/gop-candidates-top-county-posts-go-awol-help-rauner/wed-06112014-842pm
Comment by Steve Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:38 pm
2010 gubernatorial election results from the Chicago Board of Elections and Cook County Clerk:
Chicago:
Quinn: 520,413/75.4%
Brady: 120,110/17.4%
Suburban Cook:
Quinn: 380,425/53.6%
Brady: 280,175/39.5%
For the 98 County Romantics out there, please take note: Brady got more votes in the City of Chicago than he did in any county except for suburban Cook and DuPage (154,586).
Starting to understand how this one-person, one-vote thingy works?
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:53 pm
51-49 Rauner…
Because you can’t count Quinn out, logic would dictate at least 60-40 Rauner considering how bad things are here…
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:55 pm
52-48 edge for Rauner. I had him up to as much as 55, but for reasons I find inexplicable other than misplaced frugality, he has taken his foot off Pat’s throat. If I were him, I would have run ads in May and June (possibly startting mid-April) and force Quinn to spend his harder to come by resources. I would have had him start hitting Quinn hard on a variety of incompetence issues. And Don’t. Let. Up.
Since he didn’t do those things, he’ss falling.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 12:59 pm
I give Rauner a 55% chance of winning.
Statements on marriage equality were a gift to Quinn, and a chance for Quinn to do what he did to Brady.
However, Brady had a more established record of being a social right winger. Plus Brady seemed to actively dislike people in Cook County. It made it easy for people up here to reject him, even though none of us really liked Quinn.
Rauner is a rich guy who has a made a lot of money often at the expense of poor people.
However, even among solid Democrats there does not seem to be much enthusiasm for Quinn so I’m not sure how much Rauner’s business record matters. Rauner may be a bad guy, but he is not named Quinn.
I think Rauner wins if:
1) He keeps the focus on the state of the state;
2) He avoids social issues; and
3) If he avoids budget details.
“Smile and wave boys” should be the theme of Rauner’s campaign. If he can do that through November, Rauner wins.
Comment by Goooner Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 1:03 pm
Rauner’s at 75% favorite sounds about right. The comparisons to Quinn’s comeback against Brady don’t make much sense…Brady was fundamentally just a very bad candidate running a very bad campaign. Say what you will about Rauner but he has put together a very good team that has run a smart campaign for him so far. Assuming that holds up, and with the money he has behind him, it’ll carry him across the finish line. Certainly won’t be a 10 point victory, but I’d expect 4-5%. Pat Quinn just doesn’t inspire enthusiasm of any kind, and I don’t think anyone has been able to paint enough of a nightmare Rauner scenario (like what happened for Brady) to motivate Democrats to the polls in an anybody but Rauner show of force.
Plus…do you really want to bet against Nate Silver?
Comment by Gladstone Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 1:07 pm
Rauner noses out PQ. This is not a good time to be an incumbent.
Comment by Keyser Soze Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 1:08 pm
I am heartened that we are finally at the stage of the gubanatorial campaign where we are focusing on polling. As some have already done, I cannot help but to liken Illinois to U.S. Congressman Eric Cantor’s congressional district. We in Illinois are tired of being tired. Enough is enough. Rauner or bust…says the disaffected Democrat…
Comment by Black Ivy Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 1:09 pm
Rauner at 62%. Not sure the referenda on the ballot will truly drive up the Democratic vote. Also Rauner will get more suburban women votes than Brady did.
Quinn’s best bet is to go heavy negative on Rauner with tv ads, IMO. Also helps Rauner that Obama not at top of ticket.
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 1:14 pm
I vote that it’s a toss-up, 50-50. I picked Quinn a while ago, but that was subject to change.
The reason I call it even right now is that it’s too early. A lot can happen between now and November that can benefit either candidate.
Another reason I give Quinn a shot is Rauner’s lame budget plan that was just released. As long as Rauner has bad plans or no plans, Quinn has a chance.
There is also the turnout factor, which will decide a close election. Who can turn the voters out? That one is hard to call.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 1:20 pm
75% sounds right, with all of Rauner’s flaws, his biggest asset is Pat Quinn. His 6 years of bumbling around is probably going to catch up with him and Illinois is just so far behind in economic recovery, jobs and wages that people are going to want something new.
Rauner will be able to spend a lot of money, has shown the ability to put together an organization (primary and term limits) and is not Pat Quinn.
Comment by Ahoy! Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 1:23 pm
And for the record, I give Rauner a 51% chance right now. He should be at 75% because Quinn is Quinn, but he isn’t. Someone mentioned he should’ve kept his foot on Pat’s throat - that’s right. He should’ve run ads through the spring and summer, lord knows he has the money. By not doing that, he’s risking being defined rather than defining himself.
It’s too close to call.
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 1:41 pm
I see the race as a dead heat right now 50/50. Rauner would be more of a favorite but he doesn’t have much of a ground game. Wouldn’t it be ironic if the PQ were to lose largely as the result of an anti-incumbent vote?
Comment by Stones Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 1:43 pm
A poll is just a poll as they say, but it’s better to see one with you ahead and trend lines moving the right way for you. I think Rauner has an opportunity to win the race by 3-4 points statewide. I believe this because he knows where the voters are who can give him that victory and he’s talking to them. His Chicago numbers this early are very positive. If he gets the ministers push in a couple of places, he could get to 23%. Quinn’s in trouble with a capital T. He has no plan. He never does, but this time he needs one.
Comment by A guy... Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 1:55 pm
About 55-60% for Rauner. No one knows who Bruce Rauner is, deep down. Everyone knows who Pat Quinn is.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 2:01 pm
49% - Quinn is a closer and will win by a nose after Rauner slips up and abandons the ’smile and wave’ strategy
Comment by doofusguy Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 2:05 pm
Did they identify the political party of each candidate in their poll?
Comment by Snucka Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 2:09 pm
Based upon Rauner’s “policy” roll out today and Cantor’s loss, it’s still only 50-50 and always has been.
Comment by D.P.Gumby Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 2:15 pm
In suburban Cook, Rauner is about 4% better than he should be.
That might be offset by low downstate turnout for him.
I see the final now as less than 1% for Rauner.
Comment by Walker Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 2:16 pm
100% chance that the next governor signs a tax increase. 60% chance that governor is going to be Insider Bruce Rauner.
So far there isn’t much of a tail wind, but what little there is is blowing in favor of the GOP. If that wind picks up, it’ll be easier for Rauner.
On the other hand, there is a 75% chance that Oberweis says something dumb enough to galvanize the Democrats and maybe Durbin’s coat tails give Quinn some much needed help.
Too soon to say with any confidence. Advantage Rauner, but don’t count Quinn out yet.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 2:19 pm
Who do Madigan and Cullerton really want to win? Four years of a Rauner disaster opens the door to a Lisa Madigan governorship, Michael Madigan finally retires and Cullerton becomes the next power leader of the Illinois legislature.
Comment by Buzzie Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 2:19 pm
–Four years of a Rauner disaster opens the door to a Lisa Madigan governorship–
It never ends.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 2:35 pm
Cullerton is already well on his way to being the “next” power leader of the legislature.
Comment by Snucka Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 2:37 pm
70% chance for Rauner. It’s extremely early, but those are solid numbers. It also appears to be of registered voters and not narrowed to likely voters, which typically tilts more Dem in responses.
===== The poll shows Quinn leading 65-18 in Chicago, which is pretty darned good for Rauner. ===
Did you mean good for Quinn??==
You type that as if you’re unfamiliar with typical Chicago numbers. A Rep at 18 with nearly 20 undecided is a very good sign. A Republican candidate in Illinois who gets even low 20’s in Chicago is on his way to a victory party. Quinn camp sees that number and they’re going to be spending a lot more in the city than they want to
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 2:46 pm
Ask me again after the Rauner campaign opens all those victory offices around the state.
Comment by LincolnLounger Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 3:10 pm
Take it to bank. Quinn will be re-elected.
Comment by Common Sense Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 3:19 pm
75% Rauner. Likely he hits radio and TV fairly hard after the 4th of July and continues pounding away for 4 months!
Comment by Wally Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 3:23 pm
0 percent. After today’s presser, this guy is sure to step on his ——
Comment by Just saying Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 3:53 pm
I was worried for PQ. I mean, I thought harping on the failure to release budget details was a silly move not likely to resonate. But BR and crew went in half hog to answer it. The way this was bungled, and the way PQ’s team led them straight off this cliff, tells me there’s going to be a lot more getting to know the vacuity that is insider Bruce Rauner and his campaign.
Comment by Jimbo Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 4:06 pm
I forgot the odds. I don’t think BR will be able to get away with vague platitudes after this. The press was starting to hound him about not giving details anyway. Then his crew put out a budget free of any real detail. The press will press even harder for detail now, and he can’t give any without his support dwindling. I give him a 30% chance of pulling this out.
Unless of course, we all forget about this and the press lets him get away with platitudes and slogans instead of substance. I don’t think that’s likely.
Comment by Jimbo Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 4:13 pm
OK, following today’s debacle, I’m revising the odds.
50-50.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 4:21 pm
35% chance Rauner wins.
Lots of poeple don’t like Quinn because they’ve seen him for several years, and there’s a lot to not like. Rauner is a newbie with a big ad budget, but he won’t wear well when he has to say what he would actually do. Right now could be his high point.
I predict a VERY low turnout.
Comment by Harry Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 4:31 pm
The race is a long time down the road for any real predictions.
But what the heck, I will make my own unscientific and premature prediction.
Quinn 51.5 Rauner 48.5
Comment by Federalist Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 5:48 pm
Many comments here argue that Rauner hurts his odds because he doesn’t have a “plan” and we don’t know what he will do, etc., etc. For those intensely interested in politics, this is definitely a strike against Rauner. For the vast majority of voters out there though - do they really care about the minutiae of Rauner’s plan? Do they expect him to lay out every action he will take as governor? His last name isn’t Quinn, and he doesn’t stick his foot in his mouth or hold positions that easily lend themselves to black and white disaster ads. That alone is going to carry him across the finish line this year.
Comment by Gladstone Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 5:54 pm
@Gladstone,
You make good points and I realize there are a lot of us political junkies on this site.
However, this is a Blue state, Rauner has a lot of known baggage, is rich (lots of people hate that), and still is not clear how he is going to lead the state in fiscal matters beyond the typical political jabbering.
Again, you could be right, but despite these polls he has an uphill fight when the votes are finally counted.
Comment by Federalist Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 6:22 pm
55% Rauner:
Oftentimes the election comes down to the “Devil we know vs. the Devil we don’t”, but this time it will be like the scene from ‘Paint Your Wagon’ where the miners were demanding that the Mormon passing thru their camp give up one of his brides. Jean Seberg’s character volunteered to go and her husband warned her, “You don’t know what you will get!!” She replied, “I know what I’ve had.” make that 60% Rauner.
Comment by veritas Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 7:38 pm
Is Quinnochio head of legal research at the Rauner camp?
Comment by Wag the Dog Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 8:05 pm
My question still stands. This seems like a result that is very close to the one Rich got when he didn’t identify which party each man represents. If they did identify party preference, this indicates a 10-point swing in the last month or so. If they did not, it indicates almost no change.
Comment by Snucka Thursday, Jun 12, 14 @ 8:46 pm
The Cantor loss shows that huge expenditures of money just make voters mad. I think the mood is for the little guy, the Doofus like me if you will. And that is Pat Quinn. He wins by 51-49.
Comment by Publius Friday, Jun 13, 14 @ 12:55 am
==The Cantor loss shows that huge expenditures of money just make voters mad. I think the mood is for the little guy, the Doofus like me if you will.==
Yes, that was clearly proven in the primary. Doofus is a good description. Or you could say voters are sick of the status quo, and want new blood In office
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Jun 13, 14 @ 7:09 am