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* Your biggest upset prediction for November? Explain, please.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:25 pm
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Quinn wins,Feds get Quinn, and Illinois gets a great Governor in Paul Vallas….
Comment by downstate demo Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:28 pm
Senger over Foster.
Comment by Edwardsburg Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:29 pm
MJM winds up with more seats in the House than he has today.
Comment by train111 Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:31 pm
Dennis Anderson > Randy Hultgren
Sharon Brannigan > Dan Lipinski
Explanation: I’ve been drinking early.
Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:31 pm
Every House Dem candidate over every house House GOP candidate.
Comment by Frankie L Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:34 pm
- in open seats.
Comment by Frankie L Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:35 pm
Schilling over the incumbent Bustos
Comment by Peoria guy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:37 pm
No change in the seat counts in either Chamber.
The GA Elections were a “wash”
Yikes.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:37 pm
Apologies, that would be an upset that no seats changed hands but, sorry…
“Biggest upset?”
Bustos falls.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:39 pm
Does anyone think Callis can win?
Comment by SouthSide Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:41 pm
I don’t know that this is even an upset at this point, but I’m solidly of the belief that Kristin Williamson will beat Carol Ammons for Naomi Jakobsson’s seat.
Comment by Gus Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:47 pm
Bansal unseats Kifowit.
Comment by Big Muddy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:48 pm
I’d like to second this. Quinn wins,Feds get Quinn, and Illinois gets a great Governor in Paul Vallas…
Comment by Bill Baar Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:54 pm
Agree w/ OW. I do not see there being a change in numbers in either chamber. Dems may loose some seats but they have now put so many more in play (e.g. another 60K for Osmonds open seat today), that they should cover their losses.
In an mid-term with unpopular Dem Governor and President… this constitutes a major upset.
Comment by Jimmy CrackCorn Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 3:59 pm
Schneider trounces Dold as 10th district moderates try to send a message to the Tea Party (while possibly voting their pocketbooks w/ Rauner at the same time).
Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:03 pm
Dems keep majority in US Senate
Comment by Nonplussed Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:05 pm
Quinn wins by more than 1%.
Comment by walker Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:07 pm
Durbin gets less than 70% of the vote.
Comment by Kasich Walker, Jr. Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:11 pm
Scotland, after voting to become independent, in November asks for a mulligan.
Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:11 pm
If I had to pick an upset, Thillens over Moylan in the GA. Senger over Foster. Not exactly sure what defines an upset these days though.
Comment by A guy... Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:12 pm
Scotland stays in the UK?
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:12 pm
Bears win at Lambeau on the 9th. You heard it here first.
Comment by Jaded Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:13 pm
Glowiak beats Nybo
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:14 pm
Dold over Schneider by 2 or more. DCCC recent poll and 2012 results show independents favor Dold and that will manifest this cycle as high prop independents will prove to much.
Comment by Watchdog Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:16 pm
Maybe not a huge upset, but Moira Dunn defeating Mark Batinick in Tom Cross’ Republican-leaning 97th district.The voters there have come to expect more moderate representation and Dunn’s really been hitting the streets and knocking on doors.She also has a lot of financial support from the state party. Batinick might be taking the R next to his name for granted.
Comment by RoPo Ranger Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:19 pm
Chad Grimm gets 9%, and Quinn gets 46% and squeaks out a 1 point win
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:23 pm
(Falls off chair, muttering “Batnick, Batnick”. Awakes, rises to seat to read prophesy again, looks out window to Kendall County. Sighs)
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:25 pm
Shaun Murphy over Bill Cunningham in the 18th State Senate race. There’s four reasons:
1) Shaun Murphy, son of the late State Rep/Board of Review Board Member Maureen Murphy and a father who was Worth Twp supervisor for many years, is a much better candidate than Cunningham and far better prepared to address budget issues, being a CPA, than the Dart sycophant “Spokeperson” Cunnigham.
2) He and Sean Morrison in Palos have a done a good job of building up the grassroots organization in the their townships and are accomplishing things not seen since Pat O’Malley was State Senator,
3) Rep Kelly Burke is running unopposed this November.She’s got a lot of money and campaign workers who can stay home coming up to election day. They worked against Madigan to get her through her first primary, so they’re HER workers, not Cunnigham’s or Madigan’s
4) Shaun Murphy has the “most Irish sounding name” on the ballot. In that district, an Irish candidate opposing a non-Irish candidate has about a 20% edge on election day. It’s just history.
The question here is how many votes Cunningham can squeeze out of the “red and blue ghettos” in Beverly and Mt Greenwood. Some people love Tom Dart, some don’t. The “don’ts” may just get Murphy elected.
Comment by Arizona Bob Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:26 pm
Madigan picks up a seat. I am not going to say which one, but
I think Willy knows.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:27 pm
- YDD -,
Are you saying I can see the “signal”, oops, the signs?
Throw another out for fun;
If Bustos falls, then Jacobs falls(?)
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:30 pm
Well, we know Murphy’s voter suppression program will be top-notch with Morrison and his armed thugs… so I guess anything can happen in LD 18
Comment by 'Goose Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:30 pm
The biggest upset will be my liver being upset with me for all the adult beverages I’m consuming (usually starting around 9am these days).
Comment by QFT Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:36 pm
As frustrated as people are with politics, I don’t think either the Dems or GOP is getting much traction for a big win.
Enough old people buy the GOP message than the GOP will win with older White voters.
Enough women & people of color buy the Dem message that Dems are pretty safe.
The alternatives to Dems & GOP aren’t persuading people or building the infrastructure to win.
In a just world, incumbents should take a beating. But in a contest between justice and a corrupt status quo, you’d be a fool to bet on justice.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:40 pm
Rahm picks up seats including Governor.
Comment by 1776 Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:41 pm
Glowiak over Nybo, Burke Over Winger, Conroy by double digits. Lee and Pate wonder what the heck happened.
Comment by DuPage Dems Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:43 pm
Some of y’all really need to rethink your hyperpartisanship.
Just sayin…
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:45 pm
Bost beats Enyart. Davis beats Callis. Dold and Schilling win. Not are upsets, but Dems congressional remap plan fails big time, which is a big upset.
Comment by Apocalypse Now Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:47 pm
Madigan loses 7-10 seats in national Republican landslide, barely keeps majority. Quinn wins by less than 1,000 votes.
Comment by Quiet Sage Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:48 pm
===Madigan loses 7-10 seats in national Republican landslide, barely keeps majority.===
I’m sorry.
“7-10″
Ok…Give me … 4…for appetizers.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:50 pm
===Dems congressional remap plan fails big time===
Meh. That map was designed to take full advantage of good Dem years (2012, the first year of the map) and be swing districts in off years (2014). The idea was to get their people in and hope they could hold on in two years. Didn’t work with Davis because his opponent was a nincompoop.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:53 pm
Bryant over kilquist in the 115th
Comment by MBORO Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 4:56 pm
Seriously now, Mike Bell might get past Sue Scherer.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 5:00 pm
Which of the Congressional seats switching would be an upset?
It’s hard to count former members of Congress winning against freshmen as an upset.
A Dem winning in IL-13 isn’t really an upset.
Enyert or Foster losing would qualify as an upset.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 5:04 pm
Illinois over Northwestern
Bears over Packers
Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 5:07 pm
Never underestimate Senger. She can upset anybody.
[only kidding; she’s really my pick]
Comment by walker Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 5:15 pm
Rauner by a landslide so of I-80 and holds on to the lead as the “necessary” Chicago vote doesn’t materialize by 9:00 a.m. Wednesday morning.
Comment by I-64 Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 5:18 pm
Rep. Mike Smiddy loses by 8 votes, demands a recount, takes it all the way to the Illinois Supreme Court and by one vote he wins the recount in court.
Comment by Downstate Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 5:18 pm
Pat Quinn gets 88% of the Chicago vote even after Rauner spends millions to woo the black vote.
Comment by Steve Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 5:19 pm
I predict low turnout, lower than any other recent midterm election going back a decade or so.
Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 5:22 pm
Bost over Enyart as the Costello machine fades away.
Comment by Jerome Horwitz Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 5:49 pm
Anderson takes Jacobs by 4 points
Comment by DS Politico Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 5:58 pm
Oswego Willy,
You must be drinking the Kool Aid!
Election Projection: Cheri Bustos by 5.1%
Pundit Predictions:
Pundit Date Prediction
Charlie Cook April 28 Bustos +4 (Lean DEM)
Larry Sabato May 19 Bustos +8 (Likely DEM)
Stuart Rothenberg April 28 Bustos +4 (Lean DEM)
Real Clear Politics Sept 10 Bustos +4 (Lean DEM)
You seem like a jolly sort, but clearly Cook, Sabato, Rothenberg and Real Clear Politics know a heck of a lot more about picking political winners than you do. Fact is Bustos handily defeats Schilling once again. But hey Oswego, haters got to hate!
Comment by Tracker101 Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 6:02 pm
It might not be the biggest upset, but Tom Cross loses. Republicans down the ballot still need coattails, and Rauner won’t have any.
Ballot splitters will be content going for JBT.
Comment by Gooner Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 6:05 pm
Gubernatorial apathy prevails: Oswego Willy wins by 47 votes! Speculation swirls over LG pick.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 6:05 pm
===You seem like a jolly sort, but clearly Cook, Sabato, Rothenberg and Real Clear Politics know a heck of a lot more about picking political winners than you do. Fact is Bustos handily defeats Schilling once again. But hey Oswego, haters got to hate!===
Can you…
Read?
“* Your biggest upset prediction for November? Explain, please.”
You seemed too concerned about what I think.
If those “pundits”, all of them, are 100% accurate, I would be shocked.
You might need to try decaf.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 6:06 pm
Gallatin County votes for Rauner by 3 votes. Rauner doesn’t carry Cook though…
Comment by Modest Proposal Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 6:09 pm
Dunn beats Batman
Comment by Obama's Puppy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 6:13 pm
===Gubernatorial apathy prevails: Oswego Willy wins by 47 votes!===
I am very comfortable with where I am in this race so far…
After the surprise victory, and with a very respectful and so appropriate homage to - Bill -, I will entertain a Facebook campaign for the #2 spot, and as it should be, with all the respect and admiration that goes with it in the name of - Bill -.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 6:13 pm
Quinn by 5. Whereupon will commence more “Dewey Defeats Truman” teeth-gnashing from Col. McCormick’s paper.
Comment by Levi Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 6:32 pm
Fred Crespo loses to Ramiro Juarez. And no, Moira Dunn does not beat Mark Batinick.
Comment by Jerry Hubbard Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 6:40 pm
No upsets. Just some very close races that everyone expects to be very close. [Reaches for another antacid]
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 6:41 pm
the vote on minimum wage loses
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 7:07 pm
Chaplin narrowly beats Sandack.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 7:31 pm
To the “Question” - “Explain please”
I don’t see any statewide race as “Upset” worthy;
Oberweis beating Durbin would be, but not seeing it.
“Lisa, Jesse, Judy”. Single names people know, and none if the three, like Durbin, face a substantial likelihood of “Upset”
Quinn-Rauner and Frerichs-Cross are too close for “Upset” status.
There are 1 or 2 state Senate races I am looking at, and even 2 state House races that caught my eye…
But let’s look at “Biggest Upset” as the criteria to be worthy;
Schneider? Nope. Davis? Maybe, but not really. Enyart? Sure, I guess, but an “Upset”?
Brings me to Bustos…
Supposedly on firm ground, but that pesky $34K keeps rearing it’s ugly head. Sometimes something simple like that has a wrinkle to bring back a former incumbent.
It’s spread far enough to be an “Upset”, but not too far away from not being possible. Perfect fit for the “QOTD”
The fact done Dopes have it leaning for, or calling it safe, by definition, makes it … an “Upset”, possibly the biggest this cycle.
To why I think “no blood” on the GA Chambers, the seats in play, all of them, collectively, can roll out to be a wash. It’s possible, even given the seats defended by the Dems, and the unlikely seats needing defending by the GOP…
So that is an “Upset ” of the math for both sides; a wash.
I should have explained before my choice(s). Apologies.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 7:32 pm
Anonymous, you really need to go lie down for a little while.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 8:02 pm
Oberweis runs a campaign without making a complete fool of himself.
Hey, it could happen….
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 8:20 pm
Democrats all over Illinois sit out 2014, as theres nobody to believe in. Which will upset any number of races.
Comment by Madison Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 9:12 pm
A lot of these upset predictions are laughable. The fact of the matter is that a lot of the Statewide races are expected to be close as are many of the Tier 1 GA races. It looks like the HDems however got off to a fast start, and if Kilquist can finish as strong as he has started and get the win, Id say that would be the biggest upset of the cycle.
Comment by Hacksaw Jim Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 9:19 pm
=== The fact of the matter is that a lot of the Statewide races are expected to be close…===
Really?
Durbin, Lisa, Jesse, and Judy…
Won’t be close.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 9:24 pm
“Durbin, Lisa, Jesse, and Judy…
Won’t be close.”
True. Those races are so not close that I forgot about them. I was thinking more of the governor’s race and the treasurer’s race.
Comment by Hacksaw Jim Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 9:38 pm
===True. Those races are so not close that I forgot about them.===
No worries, all good. I was going in the irony of your first sentence, and those four in potential blowouts is all.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 9:41 pm
Quinn survives another close shave
Comment by Filmmaker Professor Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 9:47 pm
Bustos wins. By the way her husband just became Sheriff of Rock Island County after another bizarre scandal/resignation. Not sure how that affects things although the optics on two Bustos’ on the ballot aren’t good. Schilling is a lightweight. Jacobs wins, Smiddy squeaks it out in spite of PQ’s horrific numbers in that district. Under 30%
Comment by Far and Wide Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:20 pm
@Goose
=Well, we know Murphy’s voter suppression program will be top-notch with Morrison and his armed thugs… so I guess anything can happen in LD 18=
Surrrrre, Goose. With Tom Dart’s Cook County Sheriff Departments’ history, a private security guy’s staff is going to intimidate his employees/payrollers working for Cunningham.
Ever hear of the Diane Masters story from Palos Park?
Comment by Arizona Bob Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:20 pm
Is Quinn winning an upset? A Democrat incumbent in a deep blue state.
The “I’m Pro Choice” ad is driving a big part of the Christian right to Grimm as a protest vote. I bet Quinn wins by a slim margin because Slim Shady shot himself in the foot.
Comment by Rhino Slider Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 10:46 pm
Bruce Rauner with his money and his lies will be so clearly seen for what he is and rejected that Quinn will win with >50% of the total gubernatorial vote.
The Peter Principle is the principle that “in a hierarchy every employee tends to rise to their level of incompetence.”
I think Bruce Rauner is used to being able to fool people but I hope this time he’s going to find that he’s finally “Petered” out.
I also like to think that there’s a lot of truth in what Lincoln concluded in his famous saying, “. . . but you can’t fool all the people all the time.”
And I agree with wordslinger:
“His whole strategy of pretending to be something he is not can’t endure a year-long campaign cycle. Inevitably, it just comes off as phony.”
He’s a flimflam man, a confidence man, a Republican Blagojevich, shamelessly running his sting. I like to think most voters will see through all his lies.
Comment by Mighty M. Mouse Tuesday, Sep 16, 14 @ 11:01 pm
I think Ariz Bob should lay down too
Comment by Someone you should know Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 12:01 am
rauner narrowly wins, impeached a year later
Comment by foster brooks Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 6:17 am
Rutherford releases the report
Comment by LizPhairTax Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 7:10 am
I’m not feeling any major upsets. Quinn / Rauner is still too close to call which is what most of us have been saying all year.
If I had to pick one I’d say Glowiak over Nybo by 300 votes.
Comment by Siriusly Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 8:25 am