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* Yes, there are very real problems with the Chicago Tribune’s latest poll. But as I told subscribers today, there’s good news for Gov. Pat Quinn beyond his alleged 11-point lead…
For his part, Rauner has stepped up his efforts to try to tarnish Quinn’s positive reputation on ethics. The Quinn administration faces a federal grand jury probe into an anti-violence grant program he launched shortly before the 2010 election, and a state inspector general’s report concluded illegal patronage hiring was done at the governor’s Illinois Department of Transportation.
Asked about the impact of those controversies, 56 percent said it makes no difference in their likelihood of voting for Quinn, while 30 percent said it would make them less likely to cast a ballot for the governor.
I don’t have the xtabs, but to put that into perspective, 30 percent would equal all the Republicans and about a quarter of the independents. It’s a “meh” issue out there.
Discuss.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 10:11 am
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Previous Post: Bigfooted by the Trib
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The only poll I’ll believe is Tom Skilling’s on Nov. 3rd.
Comment by Weltschmerz Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 10:18 am
With a little over a month to go, it looks like another nail biter for Quinn. I think the message that Rauner’s negligent management had far graver consequences than Quinn’s mishandled anti-violence program will begin to move polls further into the Governor’s favor, however.
Comment by Illinoise Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 10:19 am
What can you say. Illinois voters have a high tolerance for corruption. And perhaps most political scandals seem like small potatoes compared with the jailing of two governors in a row. It’s like, there they go again.
Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 10:23 am
If the numbers and methodology of the horse race question are questionable, why should the percentages of this question, which uses the same sample, be any more credible?
Comment by Anonymoiis Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 10:31 am
So, in other words, people who already are not going to vote for Quinn will be less likely to vote for Quinn because of NRI/IDOT.
Comment by AlabamaShake Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 10:33 am
Rauner clouted his daughter into Payton Prep and later gave the school a quarter mil. He have an out-of-state governor big money and got more pension business afterward. His company or companies were sued and are potentially liable for a few billion dollars.
Is there no “honor among thieves?” Is there anything worse than a proverbial rat calling another person a rat?
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 10:39 am
I know many people in state government who can’t explain what the IDOT hiring issue is all about. Rauner can’t seem to demonize Quinn with it.
Comment by Nonplussed Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 10:42 am
For better or worse, I think Illinois citizens have developed some calluses as it relates to ethical lapses on the part of their elected officials. In order to move the needle, there needs to be something quite compelling to gain their attention and for them to vote their displeasure.
By and large we have come to expect very little from our elected officials and they are meeting our expectations.
Comment by Tommydanger Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 10:42 am
== It’s a “meh” issue out there. ==
Be interesting to see if it stays that way.
Comment by Formerly Known As... Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 10:43 am
===Formerly Known As… - Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 10:43 am:
== It’s a “meh” issue out there. ==
Be interesting to see if it stays that way.===
Ding, ding. You nailed it FKA. Quinn spent a lifetime creating the Little Boy Blue persona. A steady drumbeat of “he’s lying”, “he’s cheating”, “he’s not just as corrupt, he’s even more corrupt” is the message that will be aided by earned and paid media for the next 47 days. When it reaches a tipping point, it could be devastating. It’s the kind of thing that causes people to stay home and abandon the whole mess more than get them to switch. It feeds apathy. I suspect that’s what we’re going to see.
Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 10:49 am
Even if it blows up and dies down in one week, it might be at the critical point late in the campaign.
Comment by walker Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 10:51 am
Things could change. But as of yet, not a solid blow to Quinn, personally.
That’s why Rauner went off the other day, claiming that Quinn is putting on an act as a “folksy, bumbler,” when he’s really more like an “Outfit” crime boss.
Yeah, good luck with that.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 10:54 am
In a close race, that 30 percent can be significant.
It isn’t nothing to ignore.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:00 am
===It isn’t nothing to ignore. ===
Without seeing the xtabs, I’d be willing to bet that all of that 30 percent weren’t gonna vote for PQ anyway.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:01 am
Interesting this idea of a “folksy, bumbler”. I assume that was Rauner’s pretend persona during the late spring/early summer — the folksy Carhartt guy.
And then (inane) commercials with his wife. He was attempting to co-opt the “folksy” early on. Now he lets on (angrily) and says, okay, Quinn’s better at than he was?
Interesting dynamic there.
Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:01 am
Also, at 30 percent, it’s a clear indication that this issue is nowhere near to driving turnout.
Hey, it could change, but TII.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:01 am
Frenchie, are you new here? Is that a bulletin of sorts you’re expounding upon? C’mon man. Both playbooks have few wrinkles.
Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:04 am
= A steady drumbeat of “he’s lying”, “he’s cheating”, “he’s not just as corrupt, he’s even more corrupt” is the message that will be aided by earned and paid media for the next 47 days.=
A steady drumbeat of “did he really think no one would find out” is a pretty powerful message as well. The Quinn camp found a damn good theme. They have audio/video of Rauner saying he’s adamantly against raising the minimum wage. This morning I saw the first commercial hitting Rauner on the nursing home abuse/scandal. The really damaging stuff will come out in the weeks ahead. Did he really think no one would find out? I’m guessing yes.
Comment by Because I say so... Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:14 am
Why is anyone still studying that Tribune poll? Shouldn’t everyone be waiting for the next few polls to see if the Trib was right or in outer space?
Comment by Louis G Atsaves Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:15 am
Alan Keyes received just under 30% in his 2004 blowout loss. Dawn Clark Netsch took about 34% in her 1994 blowout loss. Unless you’re talking about issues that affect the mean voters in the mean voter theorem a coalition of 30% is the base of the partisan base voters.
Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:20 am
—
Did he really think no one would find out?
—
I suspect he thought voters wouldn’t understand it — and then give him a pass.
He probably thinks he’s smarter than 99% of the people in the state. Most business folks — men especially — equate big cash to big intellect. They don’t understand that they’re (mostly) Larry Tate-ish paper pushers.
Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:26 am
Because you said so, read again. If “earned media is supporting paid media” it’s like 1+1=3. It’s tough to overcome. Pat could be forced to run against his own reputation. That’s a tough nut to crack.
Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 11:52 am
Has Peter Kendall been fired yet?
Comment by Rhino Slider Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 12:07 pm
The 30%: “I was ‘Never’ before and I’m even more ‘Never’ now!!1!”
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 1:12 pm
I think the word your searching for is “neverer”
Comment by A guy... Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 3:04 pm
56% of Illinois voters don’t care about corruption and patronage, even if it results in a felony indictment for one of the candidates.
What could better define the mentality for the majority of Democratic Illinois voters?
And also explain why Springfield and Chicago are such dysfunctional messes…..
Comment by Arizona Bob Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 3:28 pm
–56% of Illinois voters don’t care about corruption and patronage, even if it results in a felony indictment for one of the candidates.–
AB, you’ve always got the inside dope.
Where’d you spot that question about “don’t care” about indictments?
And when’s the indictment of Quinn coming down? I know you’re tuned in at the highest levels, dude.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 3:39 pm
Arizona Bob never fails to disappoint. Hyperpartisan as always.
Bob, from all of us in Illinois - Bite Us
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 3:54 pm
@Demoralized
=Bob, from all of us in Illinois - Bite Us=
Dem, what wit, intelligence and insightfulness you provide in your posts!
You NEVER disappoint, though. It’s what I’ve come to expect from the zombified Dem hacks that are keeping Illinois from reaching it’s potential.
As far as your suggestion as to changing my dietary habits to the more “carne humana” side, it seems your zombified obsession with consumption of humanity is best reserved for the next season of the “Walking Dead”. Or are you more of a George Romero fan?LOL
Comment by Arizona Bob Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 5:55 pm
With the gradual acceptance of corruption as usual in Illinois,voters won’t be influenced by any scandals.
Comment by Ed Wednesday, Sep 17, 14 @ 8:19 pm