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Poll: A three-point spread

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* The Sun-Times has campaign react…

“As people tune into the election, it’s encouraging they are recognizing that Gov. Quinn is making the tough decisions and getting the job done to move Illinois forward,” Quinn campaign spokeswoman Brooke Anderson said. “While there’s more work to do, Illinois is moving in the right direction under the governor’s leadership as evidenced by the fact that unemployment is at its lowest point in six years. Unemployment is down and jobs are up, and our economy is making a comeback.

“We expect this will continue to be a very competitive race, particularly since billionaire Republican Bruce Rauner will spare no cost to try and buy the election. It looks like the more voters find out about the real Bruce Rauner — and his plan for Illinois that benefits the very wealthy while hurting working families — the less interested they are in voting for him,” Anderson said. […]

Rauner campaign spokesman Mike Schrimpf steered clear Sunday of offering any sense of what might be behind the apparent tightening in the campaign and whether internal Rauner polling is showing the same trend.

“It’s clear a large majority of Illinoisans are ready for a change after 100 years of Cullerton, Madigan, Quinn and Blagojevich. Voters know Pat Quinn has failed and Bruce is the only candidate they can trust to clean up Springfield and bring back Illinois,” Schrimpf said in a prepared statement.

All of a sudden, the Quinnsters love We Ask America. Imagine that.

* Related…

* Libertarian could help tip Illinois governor race

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 11:54 am

Comments

We Ask America must be feeling the heat.

Comment by anon Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 11:59 am
It is a testament to the power of effective negative advertising.

Comment by Percival Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:00 pm
Plus and: “Margin of Error ± 3%”

– MrJM

Comment by MrJM Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:03 pm
One guy’s trying to buy the election and the other has spent more money. Hmmm.

Comment by A guy... Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:04 pm
===One guy’s trying to buy the election and the other has spent more money. Hmmm.===

No one’s stopping Bruce, lol

Unless Rauner’s burn rate is more embarrassing(?)

This poll is “Exactly Right” I feel;

Rauner “up”, at or beyond the MOE.

Whose Ground Game and GOTV will pull this out?

Hmmm.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:13 pm
Keep in mind that Brady led the polls by five points in the days leading up to the election last time around. The ground game will be everything for Team Quinn.

Comment by mike Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:14 pm
The polls show a tightening race, and Schrimpf talks about “Cullerton, Madigan . . .”

Cullerton is now in the first sentence?

Sure, because “Fire Madigan” worked well in the past. Just tweak it a bit, lads! That will work!

Anybody wondering why this race is getting close needs read only the Rauner response.

These guys don’t have a clue how to win a general election.

Comment by Gooner Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:18 pm
Quinn will have a better ground game no doubt. The big ? is if the Grimm voters come over to Rauner.

Comment by downstate hack Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:20 pm
Call me the outlier, but I think that if we saw the internals from both campaigns, PQ would be leading. I don’t believe that the Trib poll was totally bogus (sorry, Rich), and the truth is somewhere between the two. And now that we have a third-party candidate included, a clearer picture will appear. I think the current Rauner ads are indicative of a campaign on the edge of panic.

Comment by Archiesmom Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:26 pm
=== I don’t believe that the Trib poll was totally bogus===

I think you owe us an explanation.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:30 pm
Gooner, I’m with you. The current TV ad with the 100 years of corruption is so over the top that it’s almost absurd. And the first time a lawyer friend of mine saw that ad, he exploded and said he thought the ad was defamatory, even considering the people mentioned were public figures. And hey, outside the political community and his district, how many people know who Cullerton is?

Comment by Archiesmom Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:31 pm
=== since billionaire Republican Bruce Rauner will spare no cost to try and buy the election….===

Other then the cost of a summer ad campaign you mean.

Comment by Ghost Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:37 pm
=== The big ? is if the Grimm voters come over to Rauner. ===

Speaking for myself… I plan on voting for Grimm. It’s unlikely I’ll switch to Rauner prior to election day as I can care less who — Quinn or Rauner — eventually wins.

Comment by Just Observing Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:40 pm
=== Quinn will have a better ground game no doubt. ===

I will be curious to see what happens on the ground. Quinn will be having troubles getting people out to vote, for a number of reasons. The union employees in the State are not big QUinn fans, its just Rauner so bungeled things they know he will be worse. The question though, can the people mad at quinn be drug out to the poles over fear of rauner winning. QUinn has a tried and true ground apparatus, but it may not be motivated to operate as expected.

Rauner has put a lot of money out to put together a ground game; but doesnt have the expeirence with it or the field people. Can money overcome? we will find out in November; but the ground will be interesting to watch.

Comment by Ghost Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 12:42 pm
Both parties are pushing the ground game. I’m gotten mailers from both sides to vote early. I’m getting lots of political phone calls. I’ve already call blocked a bunch of numbers this week.

I expect the ground game to intensify. It’s going to come down to who works harder, the paid agents or the volunteer true believers.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 1:13 pm
I’m not sure it’s that the Quinn camp “loves” We Ask America. However, the same polling company that has shown Rauner well ahead now shows a 3-point race. That is a positive development for the Governor.

To Just Observing’s point: I am not aware of any instances in which money alone was enough to build a GOTV operation in a matter of months. Not saying it can’t happen, just that it is very rare.

Comment by Snucka Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 1:25 pm
Slightly off topic…Brucie’s 100 year ad is so absurd it’s out of Monty Python…it makes no sense. He might as well say that since they each have two feet, that there are 8 feet of corruption, do you want another eight feet of corruption??

Comment by D.P.Gumby Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 1:30 pm
Ghost, it’s not about Quinn, it’s about Raunervich. The unions will be energized to bring out the anti-Raunervich vote.

Comment by Norseman Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 1:50 pm
I agree that the general trend has been favoring Quinn. Quinn now appears to be within striking distance, and so soon too. It’s not like he’s making a last-minute surge.

As far as public union support for Quinn, I can tell you firsthand that some top union leaders are in the field themselves, working the ground game. It’s unknown how this will ultimately play out, but it’s a good start for Quinn, because people who were angry with him are spending their free time in the field.

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 1:55 pm
=== I don’t believe that the Trib poll was totally bogus===

Rich, while I think a lot of your observations on the Trib poll methodology are valid concerns (especially with regard to polling registered versus likely voters), they didn’t cause me to dismiss their recent poll as an outlier. I certainly can be corrected, but I don’t think the Trib has been wildly off in the past. I also thought the answers on individual questions was insistent with the overall preference question. And admittedly, part of my assessment is a gut feeling reinforced by the behavior of the campaign’s right now. I’m not a polling expert - I hire people who are and listen carefully to them. So I can’t quote you hard facts or info to support my opinion, it’s just that - my humble opinion.

Comment by Archiesmom Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 2:33 pm
===I don’t think the Trib has been wildly off in the past===

I don’t disagree and made sure to note that a week ago. However, with a 95 percent confidence, that means one in every 20 polls is an outlier.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 2:38 pm
Rich, true on both points. But sometimes you just get one of those gut feelings about a race - or more than one. Perhaps this time the Trib polls on both the gubernatorial and Senate races tended to reenforce my feeling that those races are trending towards bigger margins than we have expected. Just to make it clear - I thought the Trib numbers in and of themselves could not be completely trusted; the margins were just too great. But the trend they were showing seemed to validate my inclinations.

When this is ll done, you my be the first to remind me - if warranted - that I need to stop listening to my gut. I’ll buy you a beer.

Comment by Archiesmom Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 2:54 pm
Clarification to my post above - bigger margins (Durbin) or different results (Rauner v Quinn) than might have been expected from previous polls.

Comment by Archiesmom Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 2:57 pm
I think we will need a few more polls to get a better sense of where this race is. We had three We Ask America polls within the last month or so, showing a big and steady drop for Rauner. We had the favorable Democratic poll showing Quinn up by 3, and of course the Trib outlier poll, which seems to make no sense, compared with other data.

Norseman is absolutely right about why public union leaders who didn’t care much for Quinn are supporting him. It’s not pro-Quinn as much as it’s anti-Rauner.

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 3:17 pm
hmmm has anyone ever polled whether people actually believe/are influcned by polls…

instead of the don of dons you can have the poll of polls….

Comment by Ghost Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 3:56 pm
I think that trial in Florida of Rauner’s company is going to be the focus from now to election day. The new advertising will keep Rauner on his heels.

Comment by Tom Joad Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 4:29 pm
Mentioned on another thread, but from about 4-5 p.m. with Channel 7 in the background:

Rauner: At least five negative spots that I caught: Three “Early Release,” two “100 Years.” Didn’t see a positive spot.

Quinn: Caught one positive (”Ford”) one negative (”Medicaid Fraud).

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 6:06 pm
The one negative spot I’m waiting on is an AFT/IFT spot that ties Rauner together with Emanuel.

That could be a doozy of a two-fer. It would certainly help Quinn in the city and soften up the ground for Lewis for the spring.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Sep 22, 14 @ 6:16 pm
Does Rauner have a positive spot highlighting his business record?

We’ve had Farmer Bruce, Regular Guy Bruce, Shake ‘Em Up Bruce, Philanthropist Bruce…. where’s Job Creator Bruce, Save the Company Bruce?

The cheez-whiz kids have been at it for a year. Do they not have a positive business story they want to tell?

Spend your whole life as a successful businessman but there’s no good story? The silence is deafening.

If they don’t have one, they’d better find one, pronto. Because his business record is getting pounded. That Medicaid Fraud spot burns.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Sep 23, 14 @ 12:18 am