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From the Blagojevich campaign:
…a new Rassmussen poll shows Governor Blagojevich widening his lead over Topinka. The Governor now leads Topinka 48-36%. Last month poll showed the Governor leading 45-37%.
I’m not sure yet whether the poll reflects a time period when Topinka was on the air with TV ads because the new poll is still behind Rasmussen’s subscriber-only firewall and because somebody who has access to this tells me that Rasmussen only says “data coming later.”
UPDATE: The poll was taken Thursday, September 7th - the day after Topinka’s first TV ad went up. But just like last month’s Rasmussen poll, this one was of 500 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Movement within that margin is not hugely significant, but it is noteworthy.
posted by Rich Miller
Sunday, Sep 10, 06 @ 2:29 pm
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+3, –1, ouch! Bad news for the old lady.
Comment by Bobby Hicks Sunday, Sep 10, 06 @ 4:07 pm
this race is over even with all the supposed scandel. Judy has run a horrible campaign, if knew she was going to run such a horrible campaign i would have voted to oberwise.
i am amazed that jim edgar has not stepped in to tell her to get moving.
I hate to say it but it looks like a democratic sweep of the constitution offices!
Comment by anon Sunday, Sep 10, 06 @ 4:11 pm
Wow
Another week, another poll
GRod still leads
Of course it is not over till the dogs stop barking! Maybe JudyBore can get Rex Grossman to endorse.
Comment by Reddbyrd Sunday, Sep 10, 06 @ 7:01 pm
I’ll bet that Rich Whitney’s approval rating will be much higher than either Blagojevich or Topinka. The only issue is that a lot of people don’t know about Whitney yet.
Comment by Squideshi Sunday, Sep 10, 06 @ 7:10 pm
This poll should not suprise anyone, except for Governor Blagojevich not moving above 50%. Judy Baar Topinka has not yet reached out to the conservative base in the Republican Party. She’s running out of time. And today’s write-up about how Topinka and Blagojevich do not differ significantly on social issues is accurate in the fact that no one, neither the conservatives nor the liberals, can completly trust Topinka.
The TV ad wars are only beginning, and the latest commercials with kids and senior citizens asking “What is she thinking?” is nearly as catching as the “Punch 10″ effort the Illinois Democrats did going into the 1996 General Election.
Now it’s 10 years later, and the Democrats are poised to potentially pick-up the 6th congressional district, as well as sweep all of the statewide offices.
The Republicans are going to need a lot of help between now and November 7th.
BTW, today’s Northwest Herald had an editorial blasting Congresswoman Melissa Bean for agreeing to no more debates in the last 8 weeks before the General Election.
Comment by A WISE OLD MAN Sunday, Sep 10, 06 @ 8:16 pm
What about Whitney?
Comment by M.V. Sunday, Sep 10, 06 @ 10:17 pm
I’d hardly say the 1% point is “widening the lead”. I’d say he’s still in trouble not breaking 50% just 7 weeks till election day. There is never going to be a poll showing Topinka ahead till election day…but it does show that the “guv” is in trouble despite his name ID & a large % of people do’nt know which way to go. They are only associating his name with trouble. He vain attempts to thro money at the “problem” isn’t working either. His numbers in some districts individually are in the “teens”. Run another poll say the end of this week, after the Topinka ads run & see where he’s at !?
Comment by annon. Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 6:26 am
Excuse me 3% points …….it’s early
Comment by annon. Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 6:27 am
Judy is and cannot reach out to the singele isue conservatives, it is pointless to do that. She needs to have conservatives who vote on a broader variety of issues hold their nose and convnce them that she will not be as bad as/better than Rod. She needs to focus on her positives, by highlighting his negatives. There are a lot more moderates in this state than far right or far left.
Comment by Wumpus Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 7:01 am
An swing of 4%, while within the MOE, is significant. We’ll take it. It is better than losing 4% which is what happened to Topinka.
Comment by Bill Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 7:02 am
Let’s not assume that the percentage points only move back and forth between Rod and Judy. Rich Whitney is also in this race, so a loss for Topinka does not automtically equal a gain for Blagojevich.
In fact, the last Research 2000 poll shows that 1% of Republicans were planning on voting for Whitney, while 0% of Democrats were planning on voting for Whitney.
Also, 5% of independents were planning on voting for Whitney; and there’s a whole category that isn’t included–new voters who are energized by the Whitney campaign and who would have not otherwise voted (i.e. it’s possible to see a gain in one candidate’s percentage points, without any voters switching from one candidate to another.)
Comment by Squideshi Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 8:09 am
The good news for Rich Whitney is that as a practicing lawyer, he has an obvious job prospect for after November. Not obvious what either of the two leading candidates would do after a loss. In that sense Rich Whitney is ahead of the game, because all of us except Squideshi know exactly what he’ll be doing come January, but the other two, we’re not 100% sure about.
Comment by Gus Frerotte's Clipboard Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 8:52 am
I’d wager a bet that topinka’s numbers have either remained stable or gone down a couple points since those god awful ads ran. unless she’s planning another substantial buy and a new ad, I doubt we’ll see much movement in her numbers through election day.
Comment by a friend Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 8:55 am
I would have thought that this poll and the IFT endorsment would have been more of today’s focus. What was I thinking?
Comment by tistophone Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 10:31 am
We get polls about once a week now. We don’t get $1500 checks to the college fund very often.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 10:36 am
A buck says Topinka never even breaks the 40% barrier in this race.
And this poll was before Topinka completely lost her marbles and threatened to assault Blago with a rolling pin.
Comment by NoneOfTheAbove Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 11:01 am
The only poll that matters is election day.
When Democrats are polled they respond to the pollster that they’ll be voting for the current governor; however, when they get in the voting booth it may be another matter entirely.
Many Democrats are nervous these days as they despise Blagojevich and won’t vote for him again but this won’t be reflected in any poll as they know that they can vote their real feelings on election day.
Comment by The Poll That Matters Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 11:23 am
Poll that Matters, stop kidding yourself. The only people that hate Blago so much are some bitter state workers, and Topinka. And if the state workers hate him, he must be doing something right.
The last poll had a huge majority giving Blago a rating of Excellent, Good or Fair. Only a tiny percent gave him the lowest rating, Poor. Those are the haters and they are small in number.
Blago’s been a poor Governor and he certainly has problems, but at least he doesn’t threaten to harm others with a rolling pin she considers an assualt weapon.
Comment by NoneOfTheAbove Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 11:31 am
To -NoneOftheAbove
I’m glad that you are so pro blago. Look, Not only do state workers hate hot rod, but the average joe on the street don’t like him. You will see JBT will get her 30+% in chicago and the rest will be history…Illinois first female Gov…
Comment by ironman Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 12:24 pm
The people that head IFT are life long Democrats so it don’t take much thought to come up with the idea who they will back.Plus he promised them the lottery money again.The average worker who belongs to the IFT will not Vote Blago.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 12:38 pm
DOWNSTATE, you hit the nail on the head. That is very normal to see the IFT to endorse hot rod, since he added 70 plus million in the chicago’s teacher pension fund, then took out millions from all other teacher’s funds to support his fantasy budget.
Comment by ironman Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 12:51 pm
Right on, ironman. The IFT was so proud of their endorsement that they issued it at 5:15 pm on Friday. Then they got their Sunday Tribunes and hurled in their Cheerios.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 3:49 pm
The good news for Rich and all of the Rod haters is that you are gonna get four more years to pour out your venom. Have a good day. I am.
Comment by (618) Democrat Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 7:28 pm
Can’t believe no one mentioned — or else I missed — that “the day after Topinka’s first TV ad went up” also means “the day after the George Ryan verdict”.
Which do you think affected the voting public more?
I think this is disturbing for Topinka, but nowhere near a death knell.
Comment by RickG Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 8:28 pm
Speaking of ads/campaigning… has anyone had any signs removed from their yards?
Comment by I'm sorry, a check for what?.... Monday, Sep 11, 06 @ 9:13 pm
I thought JBT’s ads were suppose to propel her in front, or at least closer. That’s what I read from her supporters here last week when comments were posted about the ad buy. She has run a poor campaign and is headed for a defeat. Rod has made mistakes and is not my favorite politician but, like those polled, I am more comfortable with him running the state than JBT.
Comment by Southern Ilinois Democrat Tuesday, Sep 12, 06 @ 10:03 am