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* We Ask America has a new turnout effect calculator. It looks pretty cool, and it ought to because I had a little input into how it was built. From the explanation…
The calculator splits Illinois into four regions (Chicago, Suburban Cook Co., Collar Counties and Downstate) and we preset the turnout in each of those areas to match the 2010 midterm turnout. Of course, you can change those anyway you want. We’ve also populated the vote splits with our latest poll results, but you can wipe that out and put your own numbers. After you twiddle the numbers, click the submit button to see what it does to the final results. The whole thing is designed to fit on an iPad, and we included a RESET button to put all the numbers back to presets.
With the Illinois governor’s race as tight as it seems, this shows how tweaking a few numbers effects the final result. Instructions are on the page (just click on the INSTRUCTIONS button).
Have fun.
Click here to try it out. Post your result in comments and the person who is the closest to all three candidate results will win a steak dinner with Gregg Durham.
Just kidding.
Or not. We’ll see how Gregg reacts to this post.
* Meanwhile, subscribers already know that I’ve endorsed TrackBill, a really well-designed bill tracking system. It constantly scans everything over at LIS and will text or e-mail you right after any sort of legislation is introduced or moves that relates to your interests.
Very cool stuff, but - and this is important - make sure to click on their ad in the center column or click here so this website gets the credit. I love the product, but a guy’s gotta eat.
* Back to politics, the folks at Bing.com would like you to know that they have a fancy new election forecaster. Click here to see how their system sees the Illinois governor’s race playing out.
Have you seen any cool new political apps out there?
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:10 pm
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Previous Post: It’s just basic mathematics
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Pretty cool.
TrackBill looks like it would be a helpful tool for lobbyists and organizations. It’s a little pricey for us lowly retirees. We’ll have to stick to the old fashion way.
Comment by Norseman Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:20 pm
Quinn: 47.30 %
Rauner: 46.60 %
Grimm: 6.10 %
Comment by Bobbysox Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:23 pm
What’s second place? Two dinners?
Comment by Gregg Durham Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:30 pm
Yikes!
Going Chicago 45%(52 previous), suburban Cook 53%,(50) collars 53%,(50), downstate 42%(47)..
Got: Quinn 47.92, Rauner 45.84, Grimm 6.24
I thought 48/45/7
Spooky
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:32 pm
Like the Quinn Wins
Since the GOPies love this techno stuff guessing they will sit home while Ds knock on doors and that decides election
Comment by circularfiringsquad Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:37 pm
Not an app, but there have been some thought-provoking posts here recently - recommended for geeks: http://illinoiselectiondata.com/
Comment by Reality Check Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:37 pm
Q - 48.18
R - 45.39
G - 6.43
I don’t see any of the regions breaking 50% turnout. That’s what’s really sad.
Comment by Casual Observer Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:41 pm
Quinn: 48.60 %
Rauner: 45.04 %
Grimm: 6.36 %
Based on slightly better weather in Chicago than elsewhere in the state. Of course I think the actual results will be closer.
Comment by AC Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:55 pm
I must be doing something wrong. I keep tweaking the numbers in ways I think will be bad for Quinn, but when I click submit, he still has a lead.
What seems harder though is tweaking the numbers enough (while still plausible) to get Quinn north of 50%. That’s a real challenge.
Hope this is accurate. If so, it bodes well for Quinn.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:59 pm
Quinn: 47.35 %
Rauner: 48.88 %
Grimm: 3.77 %
I don’t think Grimm gets as much as everyone else thinks.
Comment by A modest proposal Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:59 pm
===I must be doing something wrong. I keep tweaking the numbers in ways I think will be bad for Quinn, but when I click submit, he still has a lead.===
You said that, I didn’t
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:00 pm
It’s been a while since my call of the 2008 SA race in Cook County which I hit exactly. Let’s see if I can keep my record correct:
Q 46.81
R 46.17
G 7.02
But the real winners will be the election lawyers of Quinn and Rauner. And yes, you can bet they have been retained.
Comment by Darkhorse Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:06 pm
==I must be doing something wrong. I keep tweaking the numbers in ways I think will be bad for Quinn, but when I click submit, he still has a lead.==
I’m just waiting for the tin foil hats to now claim that “even the Apps are rigged!!”
Comment by Abe the Babe Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:09 pm
“I must be doing something wrong. I keep tweaking the numbers in ways I think will be bad for Quinn, but when I click submit, he still has a lead.”
Bruce? Is that you?
Comment by Casual Observer Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:10 pm
(Sorry if this is a repeat, first time did not post.)
Cool. I put in 41% for Chicago, 45% for suburban Cook, 47% for the collars, and 38% downstate — assuming the TV ads are taking their toll in turnout.
That results in
Quinn 47.82%
Rauner 45.85%
Grimm 6.33%
Comment by VM Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:11 pm
Chicago: 50
Suburban: 51
Collar: 52
Downstate: 48
Result: Quinn 48.31
Rauner: 45.31
Grimm: 6.38
Comment by Gooner Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:19 pm
I think city and downstate turnout will go up because of Rauner: he really has government workers in a tizzy.
Comment by chi Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:28 pm
Ok so stupid question. How does other state wide candidates fare based on this app? Are you saying then based on turnout JBT and Cross also lose?
Please enlighten me
Comment by Old News Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:31 pm
Quinn: 46.65 %
Rauner: 46.52 %
Grimm: 6.83 %
@CasualObserver 4:41pm — Agreed.
Comment by Lottie O'Neill Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 6:10 pm
What? No numbers for Willy?
Comment by Mama Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 6:25 pm
Quinn 48.52
Rauner 45.11
Grimms 6.37
Comment by 618662dem Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 6:59 pm
Hmm, something about this looks familiar, very familiar.
If these voter reg drives are anywhere near successful you’ll likely see the turnout numbers change quite a bit without actually seeing much change in the vote share by region.
Comment by The Captain Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 7:18 pm
In looking at it, it is a great concept. I haven’t seen many polls giving Grimm such high numbers downstate.
Quinn: 47.57 %
Rauner: 47.27 %
Grimm: 5.16 %
Comment by Downstate Libertarian Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 8:09 pm
Quinn: 48.71 %
Rauner: 45.10 %
Grimm: 6.19 %
In reality I think it will be Grimm-2, Rauner +2. But not a game changer. I just don’t think a libertarian in Illinois gets 6%.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 8:09 pm
How about the other races as I asked earlier
Comment by Old News Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 8:12 pm
Chicago: 50
Suburbs: 52
Collars: 53
Downstate: 47
Default poll percentages
Quinn: 48.04
Rauner: 45.60
Grimm: 6.36
Comment by Precinct Captain Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 8:22 pm
===How Bout The Other Races===
You can apply them to this app. Just think of JBT as Bruce and Sheila as Quinn and adjust the percentages and turnout accordingly…
Comment by A modest proposal Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 9:42 pm
Rauner 49
Quinn 47
Lib. 4
Comment by Jerry Hubbard Friday, Oct 31, 14 @ 12:17 am