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* From a press release…
Adding to the growing momentum leading into Election Day behind Bob Dold’s (R-10) candidacy for Congress, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball – the nationally recognized nonpartisan Congressional rating system that is housed in the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, upgraded its race rating from “Toss-Up” to “Lean Republican.”
Sabato’s move marks the second time that the leading political handicapper shifted the race in Dold’s direction. View the rating’s change here. The Roll Call newspaper has consistently listed Congressman Schneider as one of the 10 most vulnerable incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives.
* They did change the rating, but this is what Sabato’s managing editor wrote…
Finally, Reps. Brad Schneider (D, IL-10) and Rick Nolan (D, MN-8) are perhaps the best bets to survive on this list, but strong challengers could very well do them in, even on Democratic turf.
* By the way, he also wrote this…
We have long said that Rep. Nick Rahall (D, WV-3) is in deep trouble, and we continue to believe that he is the most endangered Democratic House incumbent in the country. Right behind him is Rep. Bill Enyart (D, IL-12), whose southern Illinois seat is trending GOP.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 1:57 pm
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I am not surprised. This is a classic swing district…if the GOP candidate is moderate on social issues. Rauner is likely clocking Quinn in the North Shore. Were it not for re-districting, I doubt this race would have gone to Schneider in 2012.
Comment by Ryan Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 2:04 pm
Gonna be a long night in the 10th.
Comment by Precinct Captain Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 2:10 pm
It will be nice to see Southern Illinois shaded all red come next Wednesday morning.
Comment by Apocalypse Now Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 2:26 pm
Schneider raised plenty of dough, but his attack ads haven’t been credible. Plus, Quinn and Obama aren’t helping Brad. Election called for Dold by 10 pm.
Comment by Bored Chairman Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 2:26 pm
I’ve undersold Schneider before and I’m not sure I want to do it again. But Rauner’s strength in the district is considerable and that might help. Also, he’s been as breathtakingly dishonest as Rauner on where he really stands so it’s certainly possible. The Kirk ad was very good.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 2:34 pm
I love the ad where Dold’s daughter or wife talks about womens health and how she wants to be able to make her own choices. She forgot to thank Roe V Wade for the Constitutional Right to Privacy to be able to make those decisions. Without Roe she’d have to ask a man what to do.
Dold stands for Government Regulation of a persons body!!!!!
Comment by Del Clinkton Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 3:56 pm
IL-10 and IL-12 will flip. IL-11, IL-13 and IL-17 will remain the same.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 4:28 pm
Then Dold! will lose in 2016 if he wins this time. My bet is Schneider survives as voters remember this is not the same GOP that welcomed John Porter.
I also gotta say, man, he really wants to be in the crazy caucus? The ones that voted to shut down the government and think choice is a sin?
You want it that bad, Bob, have at it.
Comment by low level Thursday, Oct 30, 14 @ 5:31 pm