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The ArchPundit posted some sharp comments about the Topinka campaign this week.
The main point he was making is that Topinka lacks any sort of compelling theme or narrative to her campaign.
In Illinois, Rod is the master of the narrative. It’s perfect for him because he has no attention span so summing it up in two sentences works great. […]What is Judy’s theme? Rod’s corrupt.
To Illinois voters a candidate calling another candidate corrupt is about as effective as pointing out they are a politician. Duh. […]
What makes Judy attractive to political watchers is she admits she doesn’t know everything and she speaks honestly and off the cuff. And it is exactly that which has doomed her candidacy.
Today’s question: Do you agree with this? Try not to get all hackery in comments. Address the question, please.
*** UPDATE *** The ArchPundit expands and clarifies his remarks in comments.
Let me say quickly as I’m headed out of town for the weekend–I generally like Judy as a person and I think she’s funny and genuine, but that’s a criticism in that it works on political junkies like those who read this site, but it’s horribly undisciplined for a campaign like this. Mixing the two like McCain or someone can work. Judy is all over the place in her messaging.Rod, for all of his faults, is very good at staying on messaging. I can sum up his theme in two sentences. I can’t do that with Judy.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 8:51 am
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I completele agree, and it is what makes me want to support Judy more.
I’m sick of “themes” and two sentence platforms. I want someone who will GOVERN, not carry a “narrative.”
Comment by grand old partisan Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 8:56 am
Disagree. The several times I have heard her speak in person lately she was very emphatic when talking about state issues as well as relating in an understandable manner what she has accomplished as treasurer. She will jibe the governor for his “troubles”, but it is never the center of her discussion. In Collinsville, she answered a question about the proposed bridge over the Mississippi by saying not only what she thought this area wanted to hear, but said it would be a priority to get over to Missouri and talk seriously with officials there. This promise is something which hasn’t been very noticeable if it ever happened at all during the recent bridge impasse.
Comment by diane Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 8:59 am
Judy is an excellent in person campaigner, but as I have said before, this is like 2004 Presidential elections. The Dem theme was anyone but BUss (ABB). Judy seems to be focusing soley on the negatives of Rod, while not (perhaps she didn’t have the money since Rod started campiagning so early) highlighting any of her positives.
Comment by Wumpus Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 9:05 am
JudyB’s campaign reflects the deep differences between the two wings of the Republican Party and the state of ennui at IllGOP headquarters. There is little demonstrated solidarity between her, at the head of the ticket, the other statewide office seekers — at least as reported in the Chicago papers, to whom downstate campaigning is a mystery.
Comment by Truthful James Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 9:10 am
The thing I like about Judy, is that she will stop and talk to you and act like you are her best friend. Have you ever tried to get a word with the governor?
Comment by Shelbyville Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 9:28 am
It sounds like a dead-on characterization of the two candidates as they come off in media reports and sound bites. Not seeing them in person, it would be hard to argue against ArchPundit’s description’s. What you see is what you get? It’s hard to tell, well at least with one candidate.
Comment by Buck Flagojevich Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 9:29 am
Let me say quickly as I’m headed out of town for the weekend–I generally like Judy as a person and I think she’s funny and genuine, but that’s a criticism in that it works on political junkies like those who read this site, but it’s horribly undisciplined for a campaign like this. Mixing the two like McCain or someone can work. Judy is all over the place in her messaging.
Rod, for all of his faults, is very good at staying on messaging. I can sum up his theme in two sentences. I can’t do that with Judy.
Comment by ArchPundit Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 10:11 am
Who is Archpundit?
Comment by Bill Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 10:12 am
With judy making comments about people with little weasel eyes and assault weapon rolling pins, I’de say that analysis (above) rings true.
Comment by 105th Blues Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 10:13 am
The problem for Topinka is that she’s not likeable. Even the latest polling numbers show her less likeable than Blago. And her latest “rolling pin” comments don’t help her.
The fact is voters are not happy with their choice for Governor this November. That means low turnout this Election Day. Since the IL GOP has no organization whatsoever and the IL DEMS do - Blago wins.
As far as this “I don’t know everything” routine by Topinka - that’s ridiculous. No one knows “everything” - but she’s been in office for 25 years now.
Plus, her campaign has been all about her experience and how her experience and record in office makes her the best candidate. So she really can’t sell a campaign built around “I just crawled out from under a rock and found corruption.”
Blago received the FOP and SEIU endorsement yesterday. Topinka was counting on their support.
Just two more blows to an already feckless campaign.
Comment by RealClear Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 10:16 am
“Real Clear,” JBT may have hoped for the FOP endorsement, but there is no way anyone expected her to get SEIU’s nod. Have you seen how much money that union has given the guv?
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 10:25 am
I like what archpundit said about Blagojevich. He has no attention span. LOL
Comment by Levois Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 10:44 am
All of Archpundit’s observations contained in his post are excellent; although I would not phrase them exactly the same way. But his main points are right on target. Lacking enought money for a broad television ad campaign, Topinka is not projecting a broad-based, positive campaign theme. Further, with recent polling showing a significant number of folks both undecided and unfamiliar with Judy, Blago has been succeeding in defining Judy, and Judy’s campaign has yet to extricate her from that bind. Result: Blago can continue to keep driving down Judy’s numbers.
Blago’s anti-Judy message is hard hitting (based in part on factors I wrote about in these comments nine months ago). Judy needed to hit back hard. Her first TV ad in response doesn’t do the job: her doggies running from the TV is cute but it doesn’t controvert the negative messages. Judy has the components of a winning message and a winning image, but she and her campaign have failed to marshal them, leaving her a victim to her trademark hambone remarks.
Archpundit doesn’t say it, but I do not see this battleship starting to make the turn in time to get on course by election day.
Comment by Conservative Republican Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 11:24 am
Rich, i think the state police will vote for JBT and the teachers will too. This is a close election and the organizations are scared for the repercussion from the rod camp, if they endorse JBT. Down state democrats that i have talked too, will vote for JBT. The only dems down state who will vote for rod are the hard core democrats.
Comment by ironman Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 11:25 am
Anyone who thinks Judy isn’t likeable simply doesn’t know her.
Comment by steve schnorf Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 11:30 am
The problem is widely viewed as far more internal to Judy’s campaign staff than the posts here would indicate.
But Judy is responsible for her staff selections, and they work for her, not anyone else.
Comment by From the GOP Smoke Filled Room Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 11:50 am
I think there’s a big difference between being “honest,” and not being able to control oneself, to the point of making wacky threats and hurling juvenile insults.
It would be hard to name a politician more dishonest than Topinka. Good heavens, what about telling Republican primary voters one thing on gambling expansion, just to get through the primary, and then giving her real plan to try and help her in Chicago in the General? Hardly an isolated case.
And OF COURSE Topinka was hoping to get the SEIU endorsement. She’s been pandering to the state workers from Day 1, just assuming that all the state workers who hate Blago for his cutbacks would get behind her.
Comment by RealClear Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 12:10 pm
I agree with the commenter who stated: Topinka is not likeable. I cant explain it. Its just this feeling that I get from her. A vibe she projects.
I actually tried looking at where she stands on the issues and all I could find was: Me Good, Rod Bad. She comes across as gruff, whacky, and little unbalanced. Her whacky commercial with dogs just emphasized that with me. Her saying that she wants to beat the governor with a rolling pin is demeaning to families that have had to deal with inner city crime, gangbangers, and those families who have lost loved ones due to assault weapons.
She will not win.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 12:19 pm
Well, quite obviously the BlagoBlogger “message word” of the day is “wacky”!
Oh, the tension: what will it be tomorrow???
Comment by Bubs Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 12:33 pm
Schnorf: 98% of the voters (using a generous figure)have never known, and will never get to know, Judy. So her “likeability”, for the purposes of this election, has to be projected through her personal appearances, all public, and her media advertising. The Trib poll figures suggest how “likeable” Judy has been beyond the relatively small number of sycophants like you.
Also, Peter Fitzgerald, Jack Ryan, and a good number of others know Judy, and to the extent any of them found Judy “likeable”, the impression was heavily diluted by other characteristics exuded by Judy. As Archpundit has observed, the extent to which the Illinois voters are not finding Judy likeable is a direct function of Blago’s defining and Judy’s campaign’s inability to counter it.
Comment by Conservative Republican Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 1:59 pm
I agree with anonymous. and bad vibes are hard for voters to shake. Criticism is constructive if used wisely but a constant barrage of criticism is enough to make the thickest-skinned voter shrink from the candidate like a dog and run away. And criticism about emotional issues like family, crime, and race, as well since the crime issue is concentrated in the inner city–the worst. Voters who are interested in electing officials who will be fair, kind-hearted managers will be turned off by candidates who allow such injustices on their watch. It’s like that old saying, people who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
the new word for the day–criticism
Comment by anonymous Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 2:56 pm
“Fair, kind-hearted managers”, huh? BARF!!!!
I’ll leave to the families of all the people fired to make room for illegal Blago patronage hiring to answer further on that one.
He’s really got you snowed, Anonymous 1:36, doesn’t he?
Comment by Bubs Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 3:36 pm
JBT had a clear message in the primary, “I’m electable.”
Didn’t someone else have that message in a primary recently?
Was he so electable that he actually got elected in the general election?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 3:57 pm
You know, I find Peter Fitzgerald and Jack Ryan both quite likeable, and I don’t feel myself a sycophant to them. I understood your point. I hope you understood mine.
Comment by steve schnorf Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 5:15 pm
RealClear
Saying it would be hard to name a politician more dishonest than Judy is as silly as saying she expected the SEIU endorsement. You show either your dishonesty or your ignorance, take your pick.
Comment by steve schnorf Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 5:18 pm
There are many likeable candidates for Governor who have failed to connect with a majority of voters over the years: Mike Howlett, Mike Bakalis,Adlai Stevenson, Neil Hartigan, Dawn Netsch, Jim Ryan, Judy Topinka…hmmm. There seems to be a trend reversing here….
Comment by Punley Deiter Finn Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 6:07 pm
Jack Ryan was one of the most charismatic pols I’ve met.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 8:21 pm
I don’t care if I like the person running for governor or not. Do they have the chops to do the job right without stiffing the voters of this state.
If you want to hear the real story about Blagojevich’s administration, just sit down with the people charged with carrying out his big plans. It will be a huge eye-opener to most.
Things like it costs $400 thousand plus in postage alone to send out fact sheets for the AllKids program for instance. Only those having to grit their teeth and make these things happen know what’s really going on. I think with Judy, what you see is what you get. But Blagojevich is a chamelion, changing to suit the occasion. He can’t be trusted with telling you the time of day without another motive behind it.
As far as I’m concerned, I’m willing to go with the person who has no baggage that we know of. Here’s to Mr. Whitney.
Comment by Disgusted Friday, Sep 15, 06 @ 8:29 pm
schnorf, go back and read what I wrote, I didn’t say Topinka was expecting to get the SEIU endorsement, I said she was HOPING to. That’s obviously true.
Just as it’s empirically true that Topinka is as dishonest as they come.
Comment by RealClear Saturday, Sep 16, 06 @ 9:08 am
“RealClear,” I’m sorry if this insults you, but you have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about.
* SEIU has contributed millions of dollars to the governor’s campaign fund since 2002.
* The governor gave SEIU tens of thousands of new members with the stroke of a pen.
* SEIU is the governor’s top supporter in organized labor.
* No way on God’s Earth would anyone hope to pry SEIU away from Rod Blagojevich. It’s never gonna happen.
Now, stop being silly and move on.
Comment by Rich Miller Saturday, Sep 16, 06 @ 10:57 am
Conservative Republican wrote:
“Blago’s anti-Judy message is hard hitting (based in part on factors I wrote about in these comments nine months ago). Judy needed to hit back hard.”
If it helps, I recall once getting an email alert that mentioned some surprises ahead. I wonder if this is just the calm before a well-planned storm? Gosh, I hope so, because I don’t want panels with former top aides to Louis Farrakhan going while we’re fretting about potential terror attacks. Rod is a potential security nightmare, in my humble opinion. He appoints this one time aide to the Nation of Islam’s most notorious bigot and then tries to brush it off like he didn’t know who she was tied to at first? Please! Get him out of there. I want someone who is paying attention to security issues, and we all know that Farrakhan once visited Libya and even tried to bring in a huge monetary “gift” to the United States. I mean, come on now. This man cavorts with the thug dictators of the world and Rod appoints a former aide to a hate crimes panel?? Define Rod as weak on security issues then. Just do it fast, Judy.
Hopefully, her surprises will be just in time (crosses fingers).
“Her first TV ad in response doesn’t do the job: her doggies running from the TV is cute but it doesn’t controvert the negative messages. Judy has the components of a winning message and a winning image, but she and her campaign have failed to marshal them, leaving her a victim to her trademark hambone remarks.”
Let’s hope she chose a soft start on purpose, but I did see something about surprises in an email that came from her campaign manager’s report a while back.
Archpundit doesn’t say it, but I do not see this battleship starting to make the turn in time to get on course by election day.”
Comment by Angie Sunday, Sep 17, 06 @ 2:59 am