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* Sun-Times…
A 2011 study by the Illinois Latino Policy Forum shows that 93 percent of the city’s Latino population under age 18 are U.S. citizens.
“This means that as this large young demographic comes of age, the proportion of Latinos eligible to vote will increase significantly — as will their share of the electorate and ability to affect the outcomes of elections,” the study says.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 9:55 am
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Given the “influx” of a rapidly growing Latino community, II would venture to say that 2011 number is no longer realistic.
“Significant” is probably an inacurate description as well.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 10:09 am
Anon, there hasn’t been an “influx” in this country since about 2008. There’s net migration back to Mexico, however small.
Illinois Republicans with statewide ambitions have been wise to steer clear of the xenophobes in the national party. The U.S. economy would grind to a halt without undocumented labor. That’s why they’re here, to work.
California is the model and the caution. After abandoning the sober and compassionate immigration policies of Ronald Reagan, they went through their crazy Pete Wilson phase and killed the California Republican Party, which had been a powerhouse.
Comment by Wordslinger Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 10:27 am
There should be a second Latino Congressional seat in Illinois now. There will be with the next map. This population has seen these growth trends in other states that has related to more political strength and representation. As they develop more and more leaders, we’ll see more participation.
Comment by A guy... Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 10:32 am
Eligible to vote and actually voting are two different things. The Latino population is currently larger in Illinois than the African American population…but you’d never know it from election results and representation levels in Congress and the General Assembly, where blacks hold a 3 to 1 and more than 2 to 1 advantage respectively.
Much of the disparity can be attributed to the Latino population being less geographically concentrated than the African American population. But still, the underperformance of the Latino vote is kind of stunning — and it is a sign of failure by a couple of generations of Hispanic political leadership.
Comment by Tom Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 10:40 am
@Tom10:40=The Latino population is currently larger in Illinois then the African American population…but you’d never know it from elections results and representation levels in Congress and the General Assembly, where blacks hold a 3 to 1 and more then 2 to 1 advantage respectively.
While some voters might base their vote on race, a lot of voters vote for a candidate for other reasons.
Comment by DuPage Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 11:14 am
“and it is a sign of failure by a couple of generations of Hispanic political leadership.”
I guess, but recognize that Latinos have the lowest average salary in the U.S. and their average household worth is less than $10,000 (you read that right). They are often focused in non-union jobs and are not heavily involved in working for the government. To put it in other words: busy working and taking care of “right now” to focus on things like politics. You can blame “Hispanic political leadership” but we aren’t exactly easy to organize. Yes, that’s a problem.
Side-note: the U.S. is the 2nd largest Hispanic nation in the world (after Mexico). We have more Hispanics than Spain!
Comment by liandro Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 11:19 am
so I guess it doesn’t matter if the GOP wants to stall immigration reform…Latino demographic change will force the issue…fantastico!
Comment by Loop Lady Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 11:48 am
Yes, and the Hispanic population will continue to rise rather rapidly. Largely due to illegal immigration and a automatic birth citizenship policy that does not distinguish those whose parents are actually citizens of another country or even here legally under a ‘green’ card.
And as liandro notes disproportionately poor with low income jobs.
Great news for the future of the Democratic Party and bad news for Republicans. As usual, the DEMS know what they are doing and the Republicans are so obtuse or tied to business interests that they can’t see the forests for the trees.
Comment by Federalist Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 11:50 am
I think it will be very interesting to see how this demographic trend plays out in voting. While many Latino American young people will be eligible to vote, will they be any more likely to vote than other eligible voters under age 30? That group has a very low turnout rate.
In the midterms only about 20 percent of those under age 30 voted, compared to 40 percent overall. So a bigger concentration of Latinos in this demographic is unlikely to change much of anything, particularly in non-Presidential election years.
Comment by DuPage Dave Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:29 pm
not so much a failure of Latino leadership as a function of population stats. 93% of what? but that it is 93% indicates that people will be able to register. the discrepancy has always been that there is a population that is not able to vote but are living here.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 12:30 pm
@Federalist:
If 93% of the city’s latino population under 18 is legal how do you figure that the increase in the latino population will be due largely to illegal immigration? Or is logic not one of your strong suits. You know a lot of those legal under-18 year old hispanics will grow up and have their own babies which will subsequently increase the hispanic population.
Do you automatically equate hispanic with illegal immigration? Because if you do you are an idiot.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 1:55 pm
Federalist,
We are under no obligation to ignore the facts of the piece — “93 percent of the city’s Latino population under age 18 are U.S. citizens” — just because you choose to do so.
– MrJM
Comment by MrJM Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 5:10 pm
Mr. MJM,
Did not say you ignored them. Did not say the data was wrong. Did you read what I wrote.
Seems like we have had this little back and forth before. But pleased to gain your attention.
1. Federalist - Monday, Nov 24, 14 @ 2:22 pm:
- Rich Miller - Monday, Nov 24, 14 @ 1:29 pm:
“=== people who have little or no vital skills for our economy===
I would say that someone who’s willing to risk his or her life for a better life somewhere else has an attitude that we would want here.”
Rich, I understand that you support amnesty, that is quite obvious. But your comment is a ‘feel good” statement that means little. How many immigrants, legal or illegal, have risked their lives? Do Visa overstays count? How about those who just walk across the border- no coyotes? As to those who do risk their lives neither you nor I know anything about their true motives. I can assume you feel one way and Rush Limbaugh feels another way and each will point out selected examples to prove their point.
And what about the examples of legal immigration I have given. You seem to just ignore that matter.
Comment by Federalist Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 5:26 pm
Please excuse the repeat of my message.
My mistake and I apologize!
Comment by Federalist Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 6:11 pm
I’m surprised more free market ideologues have not embraced loosening immigration laws, or at least done so with the limits on US relocation destinations to urban centers &/or other areas with declining populations.
Comment by Kasich Walker, Jr. Monday, Dec 1, 14 @ 11:13 pm