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* From Politico’s “Campaign Pro”…
… Democrats won over 1.4 million more votes for Congress than Republicans in 2012, yet Republicans comfortably kept control of the House. And that’s why even a decisive Democratic victory at the national level in 2016 is unlikely to produce a change in which party controls the chamber.
Predictably, the races at the top of our list tend to be the most volatile districts. Seven of the top 10 flipped last cycle, including seats represented by freshman Republican Reps. Rod Blum and Cresent Hardy, and Democratic Reps. Brad Ashford and Gwen Graham — all of whom hold seats that voted for the other party’s candidate for president in 2012. In two of the remaining three top-10 districts, vulnerable incumbents aren’t running again.
Here’s Campaign Pro’s top 30 House races of 2016, ranked in order of likelihood of a party switch: […]
3. Illinois-10 (R — Dold): This seat in Chicago’s northern suburbs is the most Democratic district in the country represented by a Republican. GOP Rep. Bob Dold won the seat in 2010 after Mark Kirk chose to run for the Senate, but lost it to Democrat Brad Schneider two years later. Last fall, Dold won the rematch with 51 percent of the vote. He’s likely to face tougher odds in a presidential year — Obama won 58 percent of the vote in the district in 2012, and Schneider’s already announced that he’s running again. But Dold has a moderate voting record, and he raised an impressive $605,000 in the first quarter. Schneider first faces Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering in the primary. […]
14. Illinois-12 (R — Bost): GOP Rep. Mike Bost beat Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart by a solid margin last November, winning 52 percent of the vote in this southern Illinois district. Enyart doesn’t seem to be running again — he terminated his campaign committee last month — and Bost pulled in a respectable $418,000 in the first quarter. But the district went for Obama by a thin margin in 2012, and the right Democrat might be able to defeat Bost in a presidential year.
I don’t totally disagree with the Dold ranking. That district flips with the top of the ticket, but Dold might be able to hold on. If a Democrat does win it next year and Hillary wins the presidency, the district could flip back GOP again in 2018. A Republican president, however, could transform the district into a somewhat safer Dem seat.
But the Illinois Dems put Bost at the top of their target list after he won his first Illinois House race in a Democratic district during a big Republican year. Bost held onto that seat for 20 more years. He cannot be underestimated.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, May 1, 15 @ 11:00 am
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All the boys need to do is pass a Rauner resolution and they’ll get all the money they want.
Comment by Norseman Friday, May 1, 15 @ 11:04 am
Bost has yet to perform a live stunt in Washington, which will make him a FoxNews regular. He really needs to replace Joe Walsh in their hearts, and he has the talent.
Comment by walker Friday, May 1, 15 @ 11:07 am
Yeah, I think Bost is solid unless Democrats get a real grand slam candidate and one who is probably a self funder too.
Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, May 1, 15 @ 11:11 am
Dold, maybe; for sure if Hilary is driving fhe North Shore womens vote.
Bost, I doubt it.
Jason Plummer was a horrible candidate and his showing was not a true indicator of the district’s leanings.
Dems might want to get to work trying to tie Bost to Rauner’s anti-union agenda.
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, May 1, 15 @ 11:17 am
I see the point about Dold’s district being in play, but Bost’s district seems to be a different. Wishful thinking?
Comment by Under Further Review Friday, May 1, 15 @ 11:20 am
Bill Enyart was a horrible candidate who never campaigned. Get a MetroEast Democrat that will hustle like Bost and the seat is winnable. The seat is a MetroEast seat and Clinton Coat Tails will help any Dem with great numbers. Should be a toss up.
Comment by Energy, IL Friday, May 1, 15 @ 11:24 am
Illinois 10 is fickle, in my opinion, more because of independence and issue orientation than party affiliation. I guess in my heart of hearts, I wish there were 250 seats like this in the country. While non-consecutive, Dold’s 2 terms still establish some tenure there and people appear to be getting increasingly more comfortable with him. It’s an uber-rich person seat. It will never be an easy win, it will remain a target (for lack of many targets!) through this map, but I believe Dold incrementally continues to add support and wins by a percent or two more each time probably peaking at 6 or 7 points; less than the margins Porter or Kirk achieved over time.
Bost looks pretty safe to me.
Comment by A guy Friday, May 1, 15 @ 11:26 am
Bost got 52%, yes, but the writer didn’t indicate that was a 10% victory. I’m still shocked.
Bost will be tough to take out. A bigger margin in ESL will happen, but it still won’t be easy.
Comment by Blago's Luxurious Grey Mane Friday, May 1, 15 @ 11:31 am
Somewhat tangential but … my fellow lakefront liberals and I have had several conversations recently about how annoyed we are at the volume of emails from Brad Schneider and the difficulty of unsubscribing from these emails! He sends out multiple emails per day every day - one of us counted six in one day. Most of us are on numerous email lists so we know what is typical — and this seems way beyond that. It seems trivial but we have all talked about how we would never give a donation to him only because of this. I would be curious to know if he really is out of the norm on his email campaign and if so who has decided that this is a good idea.
Comment by Lakefront Liberal Friday, May 1, 15 @ 11:47 am
Bost is a solid campaigner and trying to find a quality candidate to take him on is first among many challenges the Dems will face with Bost now an incumbent.
The 10th District is just that; “The Tenth District”.
You have the seat until you don’t.
It probably speaks more to the voters and demographics of any given election than those candidates running at the time.
“The Tenth District”… chooses you, you rarely win that district.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 1, 15 @ 12:07 pm
I disagree with the article writer, since he or she said, “decisive Democratic victory at the national level in 2016 is unlikely to produce a change in which party controls the chamber.” The writer seems to assume that a democrat will probably win the presidential election, but it’s more likely that a Republican will win. During the last five presidential elections during which we had a democrat president, who didn’t run for re-election (2000, 1968, 1952, 1920, and 1896), the Republican won. In all of those years, the plurality of voters thought that we had a democrat president too long and that we needed to elect a Republican.
Comment by Conservative Veteran Friday, May 1, 15 @ 12:17 pm
===writer seems to assume===
Remove your tinfoil hat.
It was simply a statement that even if Dems do well at the top it won’t translate into wins in Congress.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, May 1, 15 @ 12:32 pm
Bost has done very well it the past. However, if there is anything in his past the national media really digs into, he might be vulnerable in the general and/or primary election.
Comment by Anyone Remember Friday, May 1, 15 @ 12:33 pm
The Cook Political Report, Rothenberg/Gonzales report and Sabato report, all well respected and independent handicappers, have Bost in their likely column. Bost is working the district, while Enyart did little. Bost will be in the district, until the next redistricting.
Comment by Apocalypse Now Friday, May 1, 15 @ 12:44 pm
Bost won St. Clair save for ESTL. Granted, in an off year but I think that’s a strong indicator of the ongoing changing climate in that district. He has good people working for him, and he beat expectations in Metro-east.
Comment by Dirty Red Friday, May 1, 15 @ 1:03 pm
What about IL-13? That was supposed to be close, but it seemed like Callis underperformed and Davis put on a better than expected campaign. Maybe a good candidate like Andy Manar could give Davis a run for his money in a presidential year?
Comment by AmericanPie Friday, May 1, 15 @ 1:40 pm
==- Lakefront Liberal - Friday, May 1, 15 @ 11:47 am:==
Everyone gets Schneider’s emails. It’s bleeping crazy and impossible to get off the list. The day he officially announced I got 3 in 8 hours!
==- Conservative Veteran - Friday, May 1, 15 @ 12:17 pm:==
You’re so childish and partisan you can’t capitalize Democrat outside of a quote?
==- AmericanPie - Friday, May 1, 15 @ 1:40 pm:==
David Gill is already trying to kill Democratic chances. He’s a nice man, but it’s time for his candidacies for Congress to go out to pasture.
Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, May 1, 15 @ 1:56 pm
Lakefront Liberal and Precinct Captain–Some politicians, just like some businesses, often have to learn the hard way that there’s fine line between “keeping in touch” and “harassing” their customers/voters via email.
Comment by Responsa Friday, May 1, 15 @ 2:11 pm
Do you all think that Sheila Simon will run against Bost?
Comment by Honeybear Friday, May 1, 15 @ 2:26 pm
==Do you all think that Sheila Simon will run against Bost?==
I’m guessing Bost would love that. He’ll he may have people help get her on the ballot!
Comment by Anonymous Friday, May 1, 15 @ 2:52 pm