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* I’ve been telling subscribers about this for weeks and updated them on Friday. Here’s Rick’s take at the Trib…
As state lawmakers find themselves in their typical late May posture of trying to pass a budget, a new political dynamic hovers over the proceedings: more than $34 million in campaign cash under the control of Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner and his allies.
Rauner already has sprinkled a total of $400,000 in contributions to every Republican legislator as he talks about the need for the GOP to “stay unified” at the end of session. Democrats have made those campaign donations an issue, citing what they say are the bad optics of Rauner doling out money at the same time he’s asking Republicans to take tough votes for what he calls his “Turnaround Agenda.”
But Rauner has plenty of money left to unholster against the Democratic-controlled General Assembly should the session go into overtime and stretch into the summer. The implied threat is that incumbents not supportive of the governor could face a barrage of TV and radio attack ads and negative mailings, if not find opponents fielded against them in next year’s legislative races.
Already, an advertising agency that handled Rauner’s multi-million dollar campaign commercials last year has been inquiring about buying broadcast air time, said one media representative who was not authorized to speak publicly. The ad agency declined to comment.
Things are likely to get real crazy around here real soon, campers.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, May 25, 15 @ 1:22 pm
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Please, someone develop a campaign ad filter for our smart TV’s. Until then, it’s reading e-books on our smart devices and checking with Cap Fax on the latest.
Comment by Norseman Monday, May 25, 15 @ 1:34 pm
This is as plain as I can make it.
Rauner has secured 67 Raunerite votes, (”perfect” voting record according to Rauner matrix), Rauner needs 23-40 Democrats to vote Raunerite.
That’s all this is.
It’s not Democrats or Republicans.
Rauner, to his credit, is doing the Blago Caucus “thing” and nothing more.
Why do I get so “angered”? Just admit that it was too much for Rauner to run as an independent, and it was easier and made sense for Rauner to co-opt the GOP, cheaper too,
The $34 million is the continuation of the Raunerite voting Caucus, and further marginalizing the ILGOP.
When Rauner protects a Dem with a Raunerite voting record against Durkin and/or Radogno, the process will be complete.
I’m saddened the ILGOP is over. Period. At this point, it could have been GOP/Dems/Raunerites, but Rauner bought the GOP, so that’s why this was so easy.
If Rauner would just admit, it’s all about 30/60 Raunerites, and forget this “game”, go after whomever he wants, then we all know the score.
Just a shame the ILGOP is gone.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 25, 15 @ 1:44 pm
The sad thing is that this money could be used to fully explain the options to the Illinois public. (e.g. If you don’t want tax increases, this is what we need to cut; if you don’t want cuts, this is the taxes we need) Instead, the money will be used to push an ideological agenda, that, even if passed in full, would still leave the Illinois budget $6+ billion out of balance in the next fiscal year.
Comment by Pelonski Monday, May 25, 15 @ 1:47 pm
Seems that Local 150 hit piece woke a sleeping giant. Nice strategy Sweeney.
Comment by Emanuel Can't Monday, May 25, 15 @ 2:08 pm
OW: Good comment. But you haven’t considered all the potential impacts. This is potentially a ten-to-one campaign spending advantage to Rauner right now. They will figure out any and all ways to spend for their agenda.
The Dems for Rauner PAC can play in primaries against the biggest Dem opponents to his agenda, in districts where Republicans could not win anyway. That would be a real eye-opener.
This money will find its way to play on both sides of the aisle.
Comment by walker Monday, May 25, 15 @ 2:24 pm
- walker -,
Said from Jump Street that a sitting Republican governor, playing politics in the Democratic primaries is dangerous and devastating to both parties, given it’s really about Rauner, a Raunerite agenda, and nothing really close to a GOP agenda, because of its “purity must”.
The Jerry Clarke map, “may” save the Dems in the Senate, but the House, yikes.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 25, 15 @ 2:32 pm
OW: Yes, you have said that Raunerite forces playing hard in Dem primaries would be disastrous to both parties. But are you forecasting they will or won’t actually do it?
I think they will. What we will be seeing will not be a Springfield shake-up, but an attack on both political parties.
Comment by walker Monday, May 25, 15 @ 2:42 pm
Astute comments by Pelonski. Well said.
Comment by nona Monday, May 25, 15 @ 2:44 pm
- walker -,
I’ve hedged only because of one very specific wrinkle;
Can Rauner and his Dem Crew recruit enough of a Dem Wedge group to cash in on interfering in the Dem Primaries.
That, before and up to today? I don’t know, but I won’t say it’s a no…
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 25, 15 @ 2:52 pm
There is not the remotest hint of hypocrisy in Rauner and his allies’ throwing so much more money into politics than those they call corrupt for giving money to politicians.
From the article:
“So far, Rauner and his allies have much more money. Campaign finance reports show the combined total of funds controlled by Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan and Democratic Senate President John Cullerton is $3.4 million — about one-tenth of the cash aligned with the Republican governor.”
All this money Republicans are throwing into politics, and where it’s coming from, a few super-wealthy people hell-bent on lowering workers’ wages and benefits, can be of good use to Democratic narratives in the 2016 elections and beyond. That and Republicans voting against raising taxes on millionaires.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, May 25, 15 @ 2:54 pm
I just don’t see how money works out to be the big issue here. Most members of the G.A. run unopposed or with minimal opposition. Most are well-respected in their communities. How do you open your wallet and change that dynamic in more than a few districts?
Comment by DuPage Dave Monday, May 25, 15 @ 3:06 pm
Why govern and negotiate in good faith when you can whine, throw temper tantrums, and throw money at television ads?
Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, May 25, 15 @ 3:14 pm
There is only so much that can be effectively spent in an Illinois House race, with its small constituency of about 110,000. I’ve worked in a downstate race where the Speaker put about half of his issues staff plus many others, and was sending out as much as 3 mailings a DAY to each address. The candidate blanketed TV and radio with ads. Completely backfired. The Democratic House candidate got only 34% of the vote. Admittedly, this was a big Republican year (1994) but other Democrats on the ballot did better.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, May 25, 15 @ 3:18 pm
OW: Agreed. Too early to tell if it would work for Raunerites to attack Dems from within. But they have so much extra money to spend, if it’s to be directed at state government, why not risk wasting some of it on losing propositions?
Ten-to-one advantage.
We shall see.
Comment by walker Monday, May 25, 15 @ 3:31 pm
- walker -,
I’ll even go one further, that in this recruitment, the macro-micro dynamic in Democratic primaries might be a calculation that can really be the significant difference how Rauner v. Cullerton/Madigan approach these races, and coukd be the deciding factor to boot(?)
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 25, 15 @ 3:33 pm
This development in and of itself makes the argument that labor donations are inherently corrupt void.
The hypocrisy is astounding.
The Illinois Chamber has “members” who pay membership fees (dues) so that the Chamber can come to the capitol and lobby hard for business interests. Those interests include altering the tax code to the benefit of those members at the expense of all of us taxpayers, asking us to spend taxpayer dollars to support business instead of using the money to fund whatever else is needed in the big 4, i.e. healthcare, human services, education, or public safety. While I’m at it, many of the biggest business contributors make a boat load of money on STATE CONTRACTS!!!
Our very own Governor made a fortune on managing our pension systems about which he brags about the return on the investment.
Anyone who has watched over the years knows that if the Chamber is opposed to a piece of legislation, damn near every Republican is a no vote.
Same analysis goes for the IMA, which leverages its membership with the Chamber membership to the same effect.
Again, the hypocrisy is astounding.
Comment by sideline watccher Monday, May 25, 15 @ 3:33 pm
With all of his money, Rauner barely won the Republican primary against weak, virtually broke opponents.
Opposition will be much tougher for him in legislative races.Folks don’t buy what he’s selling as evidenced by the flop his turnaround agenda has been around the state
Comment by Truthteller Monday, May 25, 15 @ 3:37 pm
The only thing for sure is some media types are going to get an unexpected fat payday out of this unprecedented corruption-fighting-not-a-special-interest-at-all-purely-civic-minded pile o’ money.
Comment by Wordslinger Monday, May 25, 15 @ 3:52 pm
Don’t under-estimate the silent masses in the next cycle. Lots of folks are unhappy with the state of afffiars in Illini land. It’s not likely the Gov will back down on and he will pound away at vulnerable members (and some that would appear not to be) Everyones in play in what may go down as the Spring of our discontent.
Comment by the Cardinal Monday, May 25, 15 @ 3:58 pm
- the Cardinal -,
Can’t beat someone with no one, and 118 and 59 different districts in the micro don’t respond well to the macro… if buzz words and cookie-cutter Ads are the staple.
It will be fascinating, and Rauner has far better than a 50-50 shot at this, but they need operatives, candidates, volunteers, and most of all, a macro understanding of each individual district.
That’s going to be what it all boils down to, not voter anger.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 25, 15 @ 4:09 pm
Forgive my naiveté, but which IL Dems would be a likely target for crossing over for the sake of survival? No sarcasm intended.
Comment by George OhWell Monday, May 25, 15 @ 7:21 pm
- George OhWell -,
It’s not about flipping, or not being a Dem, or even not being a Republican.
It’s about 60. It’s about 30, it’s about 8-10 Raunerite “musts”.
How you get to 60 and 30 matters not. Rauner needs those numbers; Denocrats or Republicans, and even true Raunerites.
When Rauner is just willing to admit as such, and not hold My Party hostage under the guise of being about the GOP Ideal, then I will give that Crew their much deserve due. Their due ti making the Blago dream “possible”.
The $34 million, the $200K is about shoring up the Raunerite ideal, not solidifying the GOP strength.
It’s the difference of seeing what you see, or just believing what your told.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 25, 15 @ 7:32 pm
“It’s the difference of seeing what you see, or just believing what your told. ” You are spot on OW. When anything is repeated over and over again, people believe it. Rauner knows that. Which is the sad part.
Comment by Mama Monday, May 25, 15 @ 8:12 pm
So anyone not supporting Rauner can expect a Rauner funded primary challenge is what you’re saying?
Comment by George OhWell Monday, May 25, 15 @ 9:57 pm
- George OhWell -,
Let’s be very clear. Crystal. Clear;
I, me, personally am NOT saying that.
Bruce Rauner told the GOP GA, either vote my way, or get a “$&@%%” problem, and Bruce Rauner said, he would, HE would support those supporting him, no matter the political party, and explained his support of any that would support him.
It’s not me, nope.
It’s Rauner, personally, threatening, bullying, leveraging all these seats; Democratic or Reprilublican primary, it doesn’t matter.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 25, 15 @ 10:03 pm
It’s not the quality of my argument, the legitimacy of my ideas, or the strength of my leadership, it’s how much of my money does it take to buy your vote.
Comment by zatoichi Monday, May 25, 15 @ 10:26 pm