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It’s a feature, not a bug

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Illinois

* Jim Nowlan…

To get an assessment of how the fight is playing out, I meandered from my home office in Toulon down the main drag to Connie’s Country Kitchen, the fount of all wisdom.

The farmers start coming into Connie’s about 5 a.m., sitting communally at the big back table near the kitchen. The ladies come in later and sit at an equally big table in a small side room.

I asked about 20 at the two tables what they thought of the budget stalemate in Springfield. After making sure they wouldn’t be quoted, the caffeine addicts opened up.

One in this Republican-oriented café said he thought, “Rauner is trying to do what’s right.” Then came the torrent of general criticisms:

“I think we should fire the whole bunch,” and “They need to act like grownups,” and “We should put them in a room, lock the doors and not let them out ’til they solve this thing,” and, “I wish they could just get along.”

Then the comment that got everyone’s heads nodding in agreement: “They’re both to blame. I’m disgusted with the whole lot!”

* Jim believes that the situation isn’t yet “ripe” and that people will eventually settle on who won and who lost.

But I think his admittedly small sample is saying what Speaker Madigan has been shooting for all along.

Speaker Madigan knows he’s grossly unpopular and that most editorial boards, columnists, etc. will pile on him. And he likely has no illusions that he can increase his popularity in any way during this mess.

* So the object from the beginning, I believe, has been to drag Gov. Rauner down with him.

And I think Rauner understands this, which is why he’s fought so hard to project a good guy image in this battle. He’s the guy pushing to get state employees paid. He’s the reasonable guy who can work with Mayor Emanuel and Senate President Cullerton. He’s the guy in the white hat (literally) pushing popular “reforms” like term limits. And don’t forget that his TV ads featured him in a highly positive light.

According to Jim’s informal little coffee klatch focus group, the governor’s strategy may not be working. But I have yet to see any credible polling on this matter, so we’ll have to wait and see.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:06 am

Comments

This is the same conversation I hear from coffee shop folks in any given year. “Fire the whole bunch” is pretty much boilerplate

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:11 am
I got an MRI last week. I asked the technician what he thought about the budget stalemate. He said, “I think Rauner is trying to fix things.” I asked for specifics. “I don’t know, I just think he is. He wears an $18 watch, you know, so he must be trying to do the right thing.” Heaven help us.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:12 am
I don’t put much stock in anecdotal evidence like this, but FWIW, Toulon is in Stark County. The county has a population of 5,900 and voted 65-28 in favor of Rauner

Comment by Johnny Pyle Driver Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:14 am
It only took 7 months for the Governor to be “thrown in” with those he loves to vilify.

The comedy of running “I’m a swell guy” Ads while trying to continue to keep Madigan in the bad guy column is looking more and more ridiculous as a strategy.

You’d think actually doin’ a good job would negate the need of Ads… 5-6 months into a term…

I’m going to be on the “edge of my seat” when polling comes out on Rauner’s +/- rating. I wonder how the $2 million will be seen; money well spent, or burning $100s in the fireplace.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:15 am
Talk about much ado about nothing. Geez.

Comment by William Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:18 am
==This is the same conversation I hear from coffee shop folks in any given year. “Fire the whole bunch” is pretty much boilerplate ==

I am pretty familiar with the early morning farmer crowd…. When they think a republican shares as much blame as a democrat, things must be really… really bad for the republican.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:20 am
“He’s the guy in the white hat (literally) ”

Looks beige to me. (Or dirty white - which is certainly what he is now.)

@ anonymous 10:12 a.m.: that’s sad, but all too typical. I wear a $40 watch, so I guess I’m a 1%-er! (I wish.)

Comment by JoanP Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:24 am
If you subscribe to the theory that Madigan is trying to prolong the chaos to drag Rauner down with him and that Rauner is aware of this and actively trying to combat it then it would follow that among Rauner’s most favorable strategies would be to end this sooner than later. However Rauner seems just as eager, if not more so, than Madigan to prolong the budget impasse.

Comment by The Captain Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:27 am
===follow that among Rauner’s most favorable strategies would be to end this===

That assumes they believe they’re losing. They don’t.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:28 am
The people of Illinois are used to budget disasters, budget impasses, corruption, deceit and financial meltdowns. An intentional and political budget shutdown surprises no one. People are used to a constant political campaign, political yard signs and TV commercials. You can’t cry “wolf” for 20 years and expect to keep the public’s attention.

It’s summer, nobody cares

Comment by Chupacabra Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:28 am
When, and if, the MAINSTREAM MEDIA gives coverage to the credit agency ratings reports we are seeing today, things will change.

Republicans, farmers, middle-class boomers, care about bond ratings. But the news is probably not getting to them.

You would think Mr. Big Equity would too. Cullerton nailed it yesterday. Keep repeating it.

Comment by cdog Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:33 am
Additionally if it was the Speaker’s plan all along to prolong the budget impasse to bring the Gov down with him then passing an unbalanced budget in May doesn’t make much sense. Whenever the budget is finally agreed to basic math says that it will either have additional revenue of deep cuts, the Speaker put the unbalanced budget on the Governor’s desk months ago without the Governor having to twist any arms or whip any votes to get it and the Gov had the option to get to the end game (revenue/line item cuts) right there if the Governor wanted to. Clearly the Governor didn’t want to and he wanted this showdown, but this early unbalanced budget from the Speaker doesn’t support the theory that the Speaker wanted an ugly budget impasse all along.

Comment by The Captain Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:39 am
Typical low information voter with false equivalences. I would like to know how those freeloading farmers think Madigan is to blame for the impasse when the hold up is due to the Governor’s anti-Union / anti- lawyer agenda that has nothing to do with the budget. It’s like saying subsidize my milk or I’ll wreck my dairy, declare bankruptcy and the cow is toast… Wait maybe he does get it.

Comment by Triple fat Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:40 am
The whole atmosphere in the Gov’s office reminds me so much of a bunch of College Republicans meeting in a dorm room.

Comment by Mr Pnutt Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:41 am
What’s the “white hat” strategy get you in tangible, concrete accomplishment?

What, when, where for whom?

Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:42 am
When you’re the party with supermajority status, “firing the whole bunch” doesn’t sound so comforting. And those farmers aren’t voting for Lisa Madigan. I think it’s all about the suburbs and Rauner is playing a long game, which he can afford to given how paltry the GOP’s current numbers are in the legislature and how heavily gerrymandered the districts are. But I could be giving him too much credit.

Comment by lake county democrat Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:44 am
It would be more interesting to hear the coffee klatch response if they were asked this way:

“More likely than not, small rural counties like ours receive more government aid per person than we pay out in taxes. Thanks to the margin added by outside government dollars we have good schools, roads, bridges, water, sewar, health, social services, police and fire safety, state-paid teacher pensions, and lots of agriculture supports. How will you feel if Gov. Rauner’s plans reduce those outside dollars we get and raise our local taxes?”

Comment by Small Town News Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:44 am
===if they were asked this way===

They wouldn’t believe it.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:47 am
Small town news,
Rural communities are already seeing this play out in the press. Every school district in the state is looking for ways to make deep budget cuts. People (at least those paying attention) are aware of the state fiscal mess - and it’s impact on their local community.

There’s no hue and cry over the cutbacks at the schools. If it touches something of importance, we are seeing citizens step up and simply self fund.

Comment by Downstate Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:52 am
===They wouldn’t believe it===

Of course. And so it goes…

But they might find out the hard way what they got when they voted for Rauner.

Comment by Small Town News Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 10:53 am
Triple Fat - c’mon, man. That’s a pretty sweeping and over-generalized assumption about the farming community. I thought that kind of hyperbole was frowned upon in these here parts.

To the original post…

I hear the “fire everyone” thing. A lot.

People are angry. Change stared them in the face nationally in 2008 (Presidential) and 2010 and 2014 (Congressional) and in Illinois in 2014. Voters responded and changed government.

I’m still flummoxed that voters in several House districts overwhelmingly voted for Rauner and then turned around voted to keep Dem reps in place.

Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:00 am
I’ll bet you that Rauner will be paying Connie’s Country Kitchen a visit soon to turn them around to blaming Madigan. He was at Sport’s Lounge shaking hands with everyone on Monday evening. He did not stay to eat.

Comment by Mama Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:00 am
=== That assumes they believe they’re losing. They don’t. ===

And that would be the problem.

As others have mentioned, the gov and his frat boys don’t seem to have an end game. They actually believe that Rauner never loses.

Comment by Norseman Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:01 am
Rich, you’re no doubt correct about Rauner’s strategy, but it won’t work because it’s not true.

It takes 2 to disagree. Madigan could cave on Rauner’s Turnaround Agenda, but Rauner could have done line item vetoes on the budget bills sent to him, or could back off the Turnaround Agenda.

The people saying that they are all to blame for the impasse have it right.

Then, people “blame” the side they disagree with on the substance behind the impasse.

Comment by Harry Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:04 am
—-They actually believe that Rauner never loses—–

And Madigan Democrats believe the same of their man. Probably well founded, but increasingly his long reign is not seen as one of success for the state.

Comment by Downstate Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:05 am
“The people of Illinois are used to budget disasters, budget impasses, corruption, deceit and financial meltdowns.”

Which probably explains why a Gallup Poll taken in late 2013 found that Illinois residents are most likely, by far, to say they hate the state they live in and would like to move elsewhere:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/168653/montanans-alaskans-say-states-among-top-places-live.aspx

I’m sure that, given recent developments, if the poll were retaken today the results would be just as bad if not worse.

Comment by Secret Square Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:06 am
=to project a good guy image in this battle=

GoldBerg is not helping this.

@small town- The state funds our district at an approximate rate of about 25%. Not very different from many in our region. The big dollars are going to high poverty communities like Cicero and Elgin where the state covers as much as 80-85% of costs.

The district/teachers/administrators pay about 10% of their compensation into the pension fund while the state was skipping it’s obligation for the better part of 90 years. Until Quinn started paying that is.

The point? Most of us “down here” are paying our own way and very few could ever be considered “wealthy” by any metric.

Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:07 am
===If it touches something of importance, we are seeing citizens step up and simply self fund.===

“Downstate,” what in the world are you talking about? Small rural counties are not a hotbed for raising local taxes. But if you want to set up a bus-trip speaking tour for Rauner to tell downstate they need to get on board and vote up their local taxes to replace his cuts, be my guest.

Comment by Small Town News Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:07 am
Lived in Toulon. Wife is from Wyoming. You’re not going to find a much more GOP friendly environment than Connie’s Country Corner. Walls are plastered with signed pictures of Reagan, Bush, etc. It’s pretty reflective of the community and how the county votes.

Comment by George OhWell Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:22 am
Small Town News,

My point was that downstate voters are well aware of the state’s financial crisis. They are seeing it in their local school districts, first hand. As a result they are being proactive in their response.

For example, schools are cutting out items like athletic programs to save money. Parents and businesses are stepping up to fund particular initiatives.

Several downstate counties have started entrepreneurship classes - not funded with any school or other tax dollars.
Yet another county is funding their construction skills class without any school funding.
Finally, a school district was going to let three teachers go to balance their budget. At the same time they were going to hire a new principal. The Superintendent stepped up and said, he thought he could cover both jobs (Super and Principal), and then they could keep the three teaching positions.

My point is that the problems facing the state are not some distant idea to informed citizens. They are seeing the challenges regularly and coming up with creative methods to address it, while keeping their schools and communities vibrant.

Comment by Downstate Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:24 am
Wonder if the “fire them all” crowd is sendin’ back their AG subsidy checks or the new crop insurance claims due to all the rain? One can always count on Nowlan to produce a report that adds little to the debate.
BTW the way there has been polling so might find as non credible that shows TeamBunlge not doin’ so good. Perhaps it is time to crank up the Capt. Fax poll-o-matic!

Comment by Anonin' Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:24 am
J’S Mill…In comparative tax dollars it is simply not true that downstate is paying their own way. Agreed on all points regarding pensions but this true for all the teachers who pay into the system and Chicago pays twice. Downstate does not pay into the state coffers what they take out. Raw population numbers make that a simple fact. Not a dig, just a fact. More tax revenue comes from where there are more people. That revenue then gets spread around the state. Hence Rich’s comment “they wouldn’t believe it”.

Comment by sideline watcher Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:33 am
Whether it’s “Hizzoner” or his protege it’s too easy to paint Chicago as the villain — from Dan Walker to Bruce Rauner.

Comment by Analyst Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:33 am
These statements come from people who get their understanding of the situation from the newspaper. They usually don’t read Capitol Fax ( sorry Rich), don’t wait on checks from the state, don’t use Medicaid, day care, etc. They don’t know that so-and-so depends on these things. Once they find out about specific situations, they are just as horrified as those that know the inside story. They don’t realize the effects on people until its explained by someone. Yes, they don’t want $300,000 pensions - but they think their old teacher should have a secure retirement, etc. until then, it’s all drive by comments.

Comment by Thoughts Matter Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:48 am
=Chicago pays twice. Downstate does not pay into the state coffers what they take out. Raw population numbers make that a simple fact. Not a dig, just a fact. More tax revenue comes from where there are more people=

Take a look at the percentage of school funding for schools downstate. I know what mine is, the state is the smallest contributor. Chicago is not paying twice. If you understood what was behind the numbers you would no that. They receive a disproportionate share of school funding even when considering their poverty, ELL, and special ed numbers. They are also the only district in the state with the ability to levy for pensions. We might if we could. Under Daley that money was diverted to teacher wages in exchange for labor peace and an increase in charter schools. Chicago is paying once. Chicago also gets a monster chunk of federal dollars that we do not get. Illinois is a net loser on that one. Chicago wins on that one but downstate loses big. The state also subsidizes transportation and a whole slew of other services not related to schools. yes the people are there, but we do not have access to public trans, clinics, free child care the list goes on.

Downstate teacher wages are also DRAMATICALLY lower than Chicago or the suburbs. My first year salary for teaching in cook county 20 years ago is still higher than what our first year teachers make. 20 years ago! Not a dig either, these are just facts.

Yeah, I get the math, I don’t need the condescension.

Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:48 am
Don’t know what to make of this anecdote. The most common first response in my local suburban diner, when any state government problem was brought up during the last five governors, has been “Fire them all.” The folks I know locally are always better than those others.

LCD is right: Rauner’s long game is the very switchable suburban vote, and he probably thinks he is winning that game.

Comment by walker Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 11:51 am
My experience has been that most farmers are Republicans. Nearby Livingston County is so Republican they can’t find any Democrats to run for county offices.

Rauner’s campaign was shockingly low-information: Gonna shake up Springfield, career politicians, tax and spend, run it like a business, etc. Hot buttons with no facts.

Many party diehards back their leaders no matter what. When it comes time to “fire them all” at the polls, incumbents always survive.

Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 12:05 pm
Has any state-wide polling been done that would reflect a reasonably accurate public view of which side, if either, is carrying the day? We can guess the leanings of party stalwarts but what of the independents?

Comment by Keyser Soze Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 12:31 pm
Some of these small town folks won’t concern themselves with actual facts until the high school football team can’t run this fall and their grandson won’t be playing.

Comment by Aldyth Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 12:42 pm
==They don’t.==

Do they think they need to run up the score, then? Because most of their moves aren’t ones you make when you’re confidently ahead.

The danger of “throw them all out!” is really acute for the Governor; his biggest political advantage is being seen as “not of Springfield”. If that fades away, he’s just a billionaire that hates unions.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 1:21 pm
I’m still flummoxed that voters in several House districts overwhelmingly voted for Rauner and then turned around voted to keep Dem reps in place.

If voters were allowed the option to vote “against” a candidate on a ballot (with the vote subtractive to the “for” votes, and allowing a protest vote while not endorsing a challenger) we probably would have gotten the same result, but more insight on why people voted the way they did.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 5:33 pm
=== * So the object from the beginning, I believe, has been to drag Gov. Rauner down with him ===

What a guy. Is this what passes for leadership in Illinois now?

I love watching those boxing matches where the guys knock each other out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFtHa4nj1SI

Comment by dupage dan Thursday, Jul 23, 15 @ 7:17 pm