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By Barton Lorimor Email | @bartonlorimor
* There have been rumors circling for months about whether Ray Poe would run for another term. One by one the names on local observers’ watch lists were taken off for one reason or another. Now Bernie has the man himself saying he’s ready to go in 2016…
Poe, 71, has been in the House since 1995.
“I always said I’d like to stay long enough to get the pension system sort of straightened out,” Poe said. “I don’t know if that will ever happen or not, but that’s one of my big concerns.”
Though a Republican, as is first-term Gov. Bruce Rauner, Poe has differed with the Rauner administration on some issues. For example, as a member of the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, Poe voted to recommend that the Illinois State Museum should stay open, though it has been targeted for closure by the Rauner administration because of lack of adequate funding.
By the way, I never got the impression any of those rumors were based on the thought he wasn’t up to the job after his recent medical treatments. I have yet to hear someone doubt the man’s tenacity…
“All my blood tests are back to normal,” he said in an interview. “I’m producing my own red cells. So everything’s a go on that end.”
Awesome.
* Meanwhile, Brendan Reilly, the 42nd Ward Alderman and former Legislative staffer, is reportedly being talked about as someone who should run for Danny Davis’ seat if the Congressman decides to hang it up. Greg Hinz…
In calling around to see who else might be interested in the seat should Davis vacate it, one insider mentioned Reilly. So, I emailed him and got this response:
“I have been encouraged to consider it seriously—so I’m doing that,” Reilly responded, adding only his best wishes that I have an “excellent summer.”
Reilly did not respond to a request for further comment. But a race by the downtown alderman sure would mix things up in a district that is nominally majority African-American and has had huge developments of new upper-income housing come online on its east end in recent years.
Should he do it?
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 5:46 am
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Raymond Poe’s only real hurdle to deciding to run or not is the ability to isolate himself from the Rauner Agenda items that immediately impact his district the encompasses a place where there is a significant state employee base, along with a significant base of state facilities.
Will the “independence” that Poe may exude over the next 14-15 months alienate Raunerites if the pass given is just “too much” compared to other GOP GA members.
I wish Rep. Poe well.
Ald. Reilly, in my opinion, never seemed to be the “type” to be a Chicago Alderman and make it a 30 year endeavor. Without looking at the numbers, precincts, financials, really everything you should look at, I’m seeing this possibility of a Congressional bid no different than picking his spot against Ald. Natarus.
Based only on the premise that Ald. Reilly had a knack at looking at when things are “ripe”, if Ald. Reilly believes the seat is “ripe”, he has my attention just on that alone. Havibg my attention will make me look closer at… precincts, financials, and… everything else you should look at.
This could make for an interesting primary.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 6:14 am
Reilly has nothing to lose by running, as he wouldnt have to give up the aldermanic seat to do so. He would be a huge change from Danny Davis, who seems to have made criminal justice his signature issue.
Comment by The Way I See It Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 7:24 am
Re: Reilly - yes.
Comment by David Ormsby Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 7:38 am
Some people are in a hurry to be discovered, and some people are certain that they have already been discovered.
Reilly is in a hurry, and Poe knows where he is.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 7:43 am
Rep. Ford should go for congress, in my opinion.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 7:55 am
There’s no such thing as a “nominally majority African-American” congressional district. Tnose words don’t work together. It’s either majority or it isn’t.
The district is about 55 percent African American, according to the census. I imagine Reilly would be a strong candidate, among many, when it opens up.
Comment by Wordslinger Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 7:57 am
I live in that district. I’d vote for Brendan.
Comment by truecolors Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 7:57 am
I’m happy to hear Raymond Poe’s health is good now. I’m happy he is running again.
Comment by Mama Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 8:00 am
==Raymond Poe’s only real hurdle to deciding to run or not is the ability to isolate himself from the Rauner Agenda items that immediately impact his district the encompasses a place where there is a significant state employee base, along with a significant base of state facilities.==
Absolutely, but I think he can do it/has done it. The Springfield unions have indicated that they’re not interested in the race without Poe’s retirement. Hard to see how you make someone a Raunerite if the unions disagree.
Gonna make it interesting to see where they pour their resources, though.
As for Reilly, I think there would be tremendous pressure to have an African American in that seat. Sort of like what we’re seeing in the Duckworth-Zopp race, except Reilly isn’t as strong as Duckworth, and you could find a candidate much stronger than Zopp.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 8:02 am
===Hard to see how you make someone a Raunerite if the unions disagree.===
Thus the quandary;
How much leeway will Rauner give, given that $20 million $&@#% problem spiel.
I agree - Arsenal -, Poe, as a stand-alone, can and has done it. How long before any other GOP GA member tries to glom on to the Poe parameters for a tad bit of autonomy.
Now we’ll see how well the $20 million keeps the GOP GA cats… herded.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 8:12 am
Absolutely Reilly should run, it would break an Illinois tradition of sending our weirdos to Congress and actually have some one there with some common sense.
Comment by Obamas Puppy Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 8:24 am
Given Poe’s district, a failure to vote to override the veto of SB1229 would be a much larger problem for him than Rauner’s millions.
Comment by AC Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 8:31 am
Reilly would be a huge step up over Davis. Davis just doesn’t seem like he wants the job. He’s floated his name for just about every other office and is extremely unresponsive. It is time for him to step away.
Reilly’s problem would not be as much winning the seat as holding it. Once you are in, there is a target. He probably would expect primaries from the far left until the next re-map. Brendan is a moderate and that may not play well in certain parts of the district.
Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 9:35 am
@OW-
Yes. If Rauner’s money can bring Poe “back in line” then he could develop problems quickly. Or, if Rauner decides to spend that money on someone he can count on more than Poe, that would be disaster. But I don’t think Poe or Rauner are that dumb.
OTOH, yeah, Poe could well be Patient Zero for an ideological contagion in the Republican caucus. In fact, if he survives, but the the Republicans’ don’t make any signficant progress in the legislature, I’d predict that he will be.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 9:45 am
- Arsenal -,
Yeah, or if Poe is given “special dispensation” on many “tough” choices, while others get the $20 million lecture repeatedly, that might cause disharmony, or worse, a lock-down by an over-reacting Rauner Crew to flex that $20 million.
Why not let the “Cowardly 7″ off the hook? Poe stood his ground, may get multiple passes for doing so.
Plus, and this can’t get lost in the discussion, the micro aspects of districts and candidates that mirror the seats. Poe is as well fitted as many others, why shape Poe in Rauner’s image if the district won’t elect a Raunerite, but a “Poe-Like” candidate, or further, a candidate like a district different than both Poe AND Rauner.
The $20 million may turn out to be a hindrance than helpful in the micro aspects of 20 districts.
I’m rooting for the GOP Caucuses. Diversity and Automomy will help Rauner, Rauner just won’t see that yet.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 9:56 am
Brendan - yes do it.
I agree with many comments. We send too many crazies to Congress, especially from Chicago. Brendan would be fantastic. I think the City Council is a great proving ground for Congress.
I also think he would get challenged every 2 years from the left. But he’s too smart and too good of a campaigner to lose once he gets it.
I think he will do it and I hope he does. Brendan Reilly for Congress Blog.
Comment by siriusly Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 9:56 am
Reilly just wants to use the opportunity to raise money, he raises more money than any other member of the city council except Burke.
Comment by Not it Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 10:24 am
Re: Poe - Good for him, one of the good guys.
Re: Reilly - lots of comments are accurate and he’d be great at the job. That said, I’d rather he look at another race in, oh, I don’t know, 2019 I think
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 10:28 am
Being the Gold Coast alderman is probably more fun than being just one of a whole bunch of congress people.
Comment by Keyser Soze Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 10:45 am
I would not be surprised if Rauner’s peeps have had some trouble (or have not even tried) finding a primary opponent to face Rep. Poe. He is so ingrained in the local political scene and hierarchy that it would be silly to anger the Sangamon County GOP to the extent that they would be recalcitrant to help Rauner with other needs/requests. The local party does little, but they have built a very solid base and they are rabidly loyal.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 11:00 am
==I would not be surprised if Rauner’s peeps have had some trouble (or have not even tried) finding a primary opponent to face Rep. Poe.==
I’d be shocked if they even look that hard, for all the reasons you said, plus: he’s going to be with Rauner on everything besides union-busting (which isn’t passing anyway) and taking money/jobs outside of Springfield. Rauner should recognize that that’s someone he can work with.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 11:08 am
I think there is a huge risk for Reilly if he runs for Congress. In addition to some problematic votes (against the minimum wage, for example), the risk for any white candidate in a majority minority district is losing the support of the minority group in the future. The pressure to keep what is essentially the West Side seat in African American hands will be huge, and I think Reilly would have to seriously think about the consequences of running for any future plans he may have, or even for just working with African American aldermen.
In addition, I think Gooner has it halfway right when he points out that Reilly is a moderate who would be running in a liberal district. Reilly’s ward was the only ward that voted for Rauner in Chicago. Maybe Reilly is a moderate, but he has to keep good relations with a base that voted for someone who is definitely not a moderate.
Nothing against Reilly, but I honestly don’t see it happening.
Comment by the Other Anonymous Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 11:17 am
My vote is for Brendan giving it a shot. He’s built a solid political infrastructure in the 42nd Ward (and surrounding area) and would be a thoughtful Congressman. I’m a fan.
Although i agree with Keyser, he’s probably got the better gig presently.
Comment by Alexander Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 11:36 am
Congressman Davis has been a righteous champion for social justice, but he is one of a long line of Illinois Congressmen who stayed way too long, when new blood with more interest and energy might better serve the District. Running against him would be a career-killer for Reilly but in an open primary he should run, and depending on the field might well be the favorite.
Comment by orzo Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 11:52 am
I’ve been thinking how nice it would be to, uh, “promote” Reilly out of his seat into something completely irrelevant.
Replacing a black member of Congress doesn’t really fill the bill.
Do we need any Ambassadors?
Comment by crazybleedingheart Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 12:32 pm
Reilly is a “moderate” like Rahm is a “moderate.”
The slash and burn kind.
Comment by crazybleedingheart Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 12:35 pm
=== orzo - Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 11:52 am:
Congressman Davis has been a righteous champion for social justice, but he is one of a long line of Illinois Congressmen who stayed way too long,===
Don’t be too hard on him Orz, it’s not like Danny didn’t throw his name into every race that came along during his tenure in Congress! lol
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 12:53 pm
Arsenal - agreed, but if it is a truism that Governor Rauner is really that anti-union, then it does not really matter if Rep. Poe supports 90% of his initiatives. Perhaps he may realize (or have been encouraged towards realizing) that it makes no sense to spread the $20 million too thin for primary challenges when he still has to win, you know, general election battles.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Aug 12, 15 @ 1:25 pm