Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Rauner throws brush-back pitch at GOP predecessors
Next Post: The roots of the impasse and how we got here
Posted in:
* This week’s column from Jim Nowlan, who served three Republican governors…
Few businesses in their right minds would locate in Illinois right now, with its unstable and unpredictable fiscal and tax future.
* From last year…
Republican candidate for governor Bruce Rauner issued the following statement regarding the news that Illinois’ unemployment rate was unchanged last month:
“Tragically, under Pat Quinn’s dismal leadership, Illinois continues to lag far behind our neighboring states and the rest of America. We will only get Illinoisans back on the job, when Pat Quinn loses his job.”
* The Illinois Policy Institute this week…
Illinois only created 2,200 total jobs in the first nine months of 2015, whereas its neighbors have seen significantly higher jobs growth. Iowa has created six times as many jobs as Illinois between January 2015 and September 2015, and Missouri and Kentucky have each created seven times as many jobs as Illinois during the same period. Wisconsin residents have seen 12 times as many jobs created as have Illinoisans. Indiana created 18 times as many jobs as Illinois, and Michigan created 24 times as many jobs as Illinois between January 2015 and September 2015.
* From the campaign last year…
In August of [2013], the Illinois jobless rate was 9.2 percent. Last month’s [2014] rate was 6.7 percent as state officials report the creation of 13,800 jobs, including 2,000 in manufacturing. […]
“We need to grow,” Rauner said. “I’ve been a business builder. I’ll grow our economy and we’ll fix our problems through growth.”
* From late August this year…
A major financial supporter of Rauner is the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association. Greg Baise, the group’s president and CEO, said that regardless of the future political implications, both sides need to reach a compromise on the budget quickly.
“You can only go so far when you wake up every day and Mike Madigan has 71 votes and John Cullerton has 39 votes, and that’s not going to change until the next election,” Baise said.
“I applaud the governor for his ardent support of business reforms that the business community supports very strongly. But ultimately, we need to get a budget, a balanced budget, so our businesses — manufacturers included — understand that this state is finally getting its act together,” he said.
* Illinois Policy Institute this week…
Illinois continued to shed jobs in September, as the state lost a total of 6,900 jobs, including 1,800 manufacturing jobs, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS. Illinois has lost manufacturing jobs in eight of the nine months between January 2015 and September 2015, for a total loss of 12,500 manufacturing jobs during this time period.
* From last year…
Rauner acknowledged in a statement that “it’s always good news when more Illinoisans are working,” but that didn’t stop him from calling the figures into question hours before they were even released. Speaking at a downtown job fair for veterans, Rauner said the data could be “misleading,” arguing the jobless rate may have dropped because many people have simply stopped looking for work. […]
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, 64.7 percent of the state’s population was employed in July 2014, down slightly than a year prior when that figure was 65.3 percent. Nationally, the labor force participation rate was 62.9, down from 63.4 during the same time period last year.
* From the Illinois Policy Institute this week…
Worker dropout has driven Illinois’ labor-force participation rate to 38-year lows, dropping to 64.4 percent in September 2015 from 68.8 percent before the 2008 recession.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:27 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Rauner throws brush-back pitch at GOP predecessors
Next Post: The roots of the impasse and how we got here
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
This governor is a failure.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:38 am
Senator Cullerton doesn’t think our business environment is bad because we are attracting corporate headquarters in Chicago. Can someone forward this post to him?
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:39 am
I thought Wisconsin was collapsing in economic ruin?
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:43 am
Cullerton is in denial like most here. Yes, Chicago is attracting jobs, it’s the economic engine of the state. But the rest of the state is bleeding jobs at a fast rate. Manufacturing is imploding as our neighbors see growth. Rauner is proposing rational reforms, yet the head in sand crowd won’t have it.
Comment by Tone Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:43 am
WI year over year job growth is 1.9%
IL year over year job growth is 0.5%
Comment by Tone Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:44 am
===Rauner is proposing rational reforms===
I would obviously disagree.
However, proposing undoable reforms and getting the job done after 10 months in office are two totally different things. One involves talking to a mirror, mirror on the wall. The other involves solving real problems with what you got on hand.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:45 am
IA year over year job growth is 1.5%
IN year over year job growth is 2.2%
KY year over year job growth is 1.8%
MS year over year job growth is 0.8%
WI year over year job growth is 1.9%
And then we have
IL year over year job growth is 0.5%
Comment by Tone Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:46 am
===Rauner is proposing rational reforms===
It’s only rational in its entirety if it can get 60 and 30, or 71 and 36 now.
Rauner can’t. So, not rational.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:47 am
I agree with Bruce’s “Prevailing Wage” reform….as long as it includes all Illinoisans!
If I have to tighten my belt….so should everyone. Thankfully Bruce still has the carhartts and old van!
Comment by Jack Stephens Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:49 am
Rauner owns this problem for neglecting his constitutional duty to propose a balanced budget. Period. He put the cartbefore the horse and Illinois suffered due to that misguided move.
Comment by illinoised Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:49 am
Regarding the national labor force participation, the WSJ had a good article on their website yesterday: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/10/21/what-we-know-about-the-92-million-americans-who-arent-in-the-labor-force/
“The decline in the labor-force participation rate defies simple explanation. But that’s not the same as saying it’s unexplained. In fact, it’s just that many things have been happening at once. There are more young people who aren’t in the labor force because they’re in school. There are more retirees. There are more middle-aged people on disability.”
Comment by ABCD Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:52 am
===If I have to tighten my belt….so should everyone. Thankfully Bruce still has the carhartts and old van!===
A Republican ideal is NOT reducing wages for all.
Raunerite ideals include the premise people make too much money…
It breaks my heart.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:53 am
Yikes….if that doesn’t give us whiplash and just think credit goes to Jim Nowlan
Comment by Anonin' Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:54 am
There is no doubt Illinois has a serious economic mess on its hands. If Rauner’s turnaround agenda was focused on jobs and not on an ideological crusade, we’d all be better off. Dems need to keep this focus and force the gov to keep this focus.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:55 am
I think we need to be careful on job numbers. I don’t know how we can find out what kind of jobs were created in these other states. It really doesn’t help if the majority of jobs created are low paying retail or service sector jobs. I’m not sure how to get at that data. I’m not excusing our numbers. I’m just cautioning exalting other states till we know what made up their increase.
Comment by Honeybear Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:56 am
It is less than a year into his first term, and he has gotten little cooperation from Madigan on anything. Anyone who thought changing the direction of this state would happen in 9 months was expecting more than a miracle. Especially in a state with such deeply rooted special interests.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:56 am
Rauner’s in the barrel now.
IPI is going to have to switch to the “Illinois is back” track pretty soon to support their guy.
Policy changes by Governors have less real impact on the economy, than do actions (like no budget for months) which damage overall confidence and security. That, to answer LCD’s serious question of yesterday, is why holding the whole budget hostage might be the most damaging of tactics for the state at many levels.
Comment by walker Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:56 am
How is Illinois’ stagnant job growth related to the lack of a budget?
I thought that the economic reforms Rauner is proposing are non-budgetary items?
So which is it? I’m sure the gentleman from Oswego can explain.
Comment by Former Federal Prosecutor Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 10:56 am
I hope ipi is paying you for all the promotion on your site, Rich. Their whole deal is pay 2 play so bare minimum you should get sonething out of it.
Comment by not so fast Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:00 am
Rauner is like a kid at Christmas refusing to open his presents because there isn’t a live pony right there in the living room.
Actually, he is also refusing to let anyone else open their presents. And holding a blowtorch to the artificial tree.
Comment by Concerned Observer Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:00 am
==How is Illinois’ stagnant job growth related to the lack of a budget?==
“* This week’s column from Jim Nowlan, who served three Republican governors…
Few businesses in their right minds would locate in Illinois right now, with its unstable and unpredictable fiscal and tax future.”
Comment by Reading Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:01 am
When I look at how the Rauner team is devastating the state just to get at Democrats, I can’t help thinking of Oppenheimer and his reaction to witnessing the first atomic bomb detonation: http://youtu.be/lb13ynu3Iac 54 seconds
Comment by Union Man Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:05 am
==How is Illinois’ stagnant job growth related to the lack of a budget?==
I’m far from an expert, but here’s how I view it.
You don’t hitch your buggy to a dying horse with 3 legs.
The work force is losing a lot of qualified workers because no budget=no child care assistance.
With no services for people, good workers who need services (such as an autistic child) will be looking elsewhere for work.
Roads may not be plowed or fixed this winter. Makes it hard to get supplies, customers, and workers to your business.
Lack of budget will shortly cause serious infrastructure problems.
People don’t spend money like they usually would when they are worried about the future, which means less profit for business. Which means less money to pay workers.
It’s all a big, vicious circle.
Sorry about my random train of thought. I hope that made even a little sense.
Comment by HangingOn Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:06 am
“I thought Wisconsin was collapsing in economic ruin?”
No, but apparently Illinois has been for the last 10 months. I wonder what changed?
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:13 am
I guess it’s natural if your business is state government to assume the world revolves around your every move.
But when it comes to “the economy” it’s just not the case. They don’t teach that in any economics department, anywhere.
So many other, much more important factors are in play.
You think manufacturers located in China because of “stability and predictability” of government? The local party boss or general you had to bribe to start business could put you out of business in a heartbeat. Or, he could be purged and you’re screwed, which is happening all over China now as Boss Xi is not respecting previous arrangements.
How about Northern Mexico, cartel country? “Stability and predictability” are tne attractions there for manufacturers?
Why would a manufacturer, or any exporter, or corporate HQ, give a hoot about Illinois fiscal issues? They’re not paying taxes on income derived from out-of-state sales. It’s not their problem.
Check out the annual reports of any big-time Illinois manufacturer as to the amount of state and local taxes they pay, total, in all 50 states and you’ll laugh yourself silly at the argument that the Illinois tax burden is a disincentive to business. It’s nothing.
Same with the effectiveness of handouts. ConAgra didn’t move from Omaha to Chicago because of the corporate welfare. They did so because the new CEO is raising his family in Winnetka.
State policies are one of hundreds of factors in “the economy.”
But to pretend that you can sit in Springfield and fiddle with the thermostat and turn up the heat is absurd.
You know what you can do? Build and maintain your infrastructure, prioritize K-12 and universities, and provide for public safety, rule of law and human services. You lay the foundation for the private sector to build on.
Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:15 am
Hanging On, to add to your list: nonprofit jobs are real jobs. Nonprofit jobs are being lost every single day now.
Comment by Pawn Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:18 am
@Pawn Thanks. I know I left things out. My train of thought just went right over the cliff.
Comment by HangingOn Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:22 am
150,000 jobs leaving, from trade deals?
Comment by 360 Degree TurnAround Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:23 am
“===I wonder what changed?===”
An uncooperative legislature vs. a cooperative one? Has the middle class since vanished in Wisconsin?
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:24 am
Tone. Stop with the fly by misrepresentations of facts. First off. Total employed. Illinois. September 2000. 6,192,354. In September 2015. 6,145,708. Not a loss of 150,000 jobs.
Second, stop with the percentage increase nonsense, because it doesn’t come anywhere close to painting the picture. The base by which Illinois employment is growing is considerably larger than those other states. So just because employment growth rates in and of themselves do nothing to indicate whether or not states are catching up with our economy, which is really what determines whether or not we’re falling behind. Not saying we don’t have problems, but the situation is more complex than your comments are indicating.
Comment by Juice Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:26 am
=Illinois is down 150,000 Jon’s from the year 2000.=
Do all the historical research you want, cherry pic all of the data you want, it really does not obfuscate the truth as you would like.
Current Fact: The job growth trend was better a year ago. That changed some time after January of this year.
The biggest change in that time is our new “pro-growth” governor. only his track record is not indicative of his boast.
All helmet and no Harley this governor is.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:28 am
I think there’s no doubt that Government shut downs hurt business and cost more tax payer dollars in the long run.
As someone who supports a majority of the reforms Rauner is looking for, I think at this point he just needs to find whatever wins he can and get to a budget.
A year from now he can campaign on his small wins “despite Democrat intransigence” and rail on them for what they did block.
But now, right now, we need a budget.
Comment by Political Animal Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:29 am
What was Pat Quinn’s main goal when he came into office? Political reform. How far did he get with it? Nowhere - Madigan forced him to throw his own blue-ribbon commission under the bus and sign a warm puddle of next-to-nothing (I won’t say nothing because there was a soupcon of worth items in there). Now imagine if he had said “This state is messed up with corruption and I’m going to fix it, or you legislators are going to face the voters owning it. No budget gets passed without this reform.” Now imagine if Madigan had said “WE WON’T EVEN DISCUSS THOSE REFORMS - YOU WILL NOT HOLD THE BUDGET HOSTAGE.” I think there would have been immense pressure on Madigan to cave and at least agree to negotiate. I think there would have been stronger reforms passed as a result.
If you assume that 1) Rauner wants as many anti-union / pro-business goals as possible, 2) knows he won’t get everything he wants but 3) would rather force the Dems to take ownership rather than agree to something like Quinn did, his actions make sense. What other leverage does he have?
Comment by lake county democrat Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:31 am
JS Mill - Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:28 am:
=Illinois is down 150,000 Jon’s from the year 2000.=
Do all the historical research you want, cherry pic all of the data you want, it really does not obfuscate the truth as you would like.
Current Fact: The job growth trend was better a year ago. That changed some time after January of this year.
The biggest change in that time is our new “pro-growth” governor. only his track record is not indicative of his boast.
All helmet and no Harley this governor is.
The rest of the country has recovered from the recession, Illinois hasn’t. Not cherry picking anything. Simple truths will help people understand how bad things are here. Tax increases aren’t going to solve are problems with a shrinking population.
Comment by Tone Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:33 am
Tone, by your “logic,” why hasn’t the Jan. 1 tax cut paid off?
It’s goofy to think of states as self-contained economic units subject to significant manipulation by central planning.
Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:38 am
States that have restricted the rights of public employees are now facing severe shortages of qualified teachers to staff their classrooms as teachers are leaving in droves to go to other states. Some states are resorting to allowing people without any qualifications whatsoever to educate their students.
Is this what we want for Illinois? How does this grow our economy?
Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:39 am
Can we even discuss these economics without the context of the general economy? The sickest economy in the U.S. probably looked ok in isolation during the 1990s.
As I wrote yesterday, I’m not as concerned about how we’re doing vis-a-vis Indiana and Wisconsin as vis-a-vis states with a track record of poaching (including, yes, Texas).
Comment by lake county democrat Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:42 am
==How is Illinois’ stagnant job growth related to the lack of a budget?==
1) A lot of business contract with Illinois. Many are providing services on an IOU basis right now. That means they have a painfully long aging receivables log. Since they aren’t getting that money, they have less free capital to spend on investment, growth, or hiring.
2) All of the income that is tied up in accounts that can’t be spent is money that’s not going into the economy. If kids miss map grants, local college businesses have fewer customers. If seniors and the disabled don’t have home care, they can’t get out of the house to go to the grocery store. Maybe they don’t even have their allowance to spend at the grocery store.
3) Uncertainty. Businesses like to know what’s going to happen so they can plan. Right now they don’t know if property taxes are going up or if they’ll be frozen. They don’t know what their workers comp bill will be. They don’t know if corporate tax rates will change. They don’t know if sales tax will go up, decreasing demand. They don’t know if the yields on their bonds will go down thanks to a credit down grade.
So ya, it affects a lot.
As Paul Krugman would say, your spending is my income.
Comment by Political Animal Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:43 am
==Rauner is proposing rational reforms, yet the head in sand crowd won’t have it.==
I don’t think stripping collective bargaining rights from people is “rational.”
I would also argue it is the people who think he can get this accomplished who have their head in the sand.
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:44 am
And we have an overabundance of qualified teachers as our population is shrinking and the number of children keeps getting smaller and smaller.
Comment by Tone Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:45 am
Sure, LCD!
The March 2015 issue of “Site Selection” magazine reports that in 2014 Illinois ranked third, behind Texas and Ohio, in new private capital projects, with 394.
Texas, Ohio and Illinois were also the top three in 2013.
As Tone would say, private capital has just been hemorraghing into Illinois.
It’s online.
Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:52 am
LCD: Respect your opinion and the clarity of your argument. Simply disagree. Quinn’s decision was the right one in your case. To hold the budget hostage for months would do more harm to the state than to miss out on some of the “reforms” touted by that commission. All about priorities. That commission could have achieved more without needing such a drastic move, if their chairman and staff didn’t seem to treat every GA member who wanted to help them as a suspect, but that is a different story.
Comment by walker Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:55 am
==Yes, Chicago is attracting jobs, it’s the economic engine of the state. But the rest of the state is bleeding jobs at a fast rate. Manufacturing is imploding as our neighbors see growth.==
What’s Chicago doing differently from the rest of the state, then?
==If I have to tighten my belt….so should everyone.==
I’m old enough to remember when Republicans believed that “You don’t make the weak strong by making the strong weak.”
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:56 am
=Not cherry picking anything. Simple truths will help people understand how bad things are here. Tax increases aren’t going to solve are problems with a shrinking population.=
Unless the recession started in 2000 it would appear that you are trying to re-frame our economic woes and our latest jobs slow down as having nothing to do with our current governor. Only he thinks it does, he must because he was blaming Quinn for, what turns out to be, a better jobs record. I mean really, which is it governor? Pick a lane for crying out loud.
Raising taxes will allow Illinois to pay its bills. How is that not good for an economy?
You see, all of these government employees and these good folks that work for non profits, they participate in our economy. They are not vagrants brought in from out of state as indentured servants only to return home to Kentucky at night. Real people, many doing important and vital work. And their income is used for goods and services in Illinois. If they are not getting paid, other won’t get paid. And taxes do not get paid which only exacerbates the states revenue issues. All interrelated.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:56 am
=An uncooperative legislature vs. a cooperative one?= LOL! Yeah, that is what Quinn had, a cooperative legislature. I thought you lived in Illinois for a while. I guess you are new, welcome.
=Has the middle class since vanished in Wisconsin?=
Has it grown?
Is your standard then that, if it exists then the plan is successful?
At the end of the day, I don’t care about Wisconsin. I live in Illinois and what IS happening and what your guy wants to do are not good for Illinois.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 12:01 pm
I asked two questions, but it is really a single question in two parts. (1) How is the lack of a budget in Illinois hurting the economy if (2) Governor Rauner’s economic proposals are unrelated to the budget?
For months now, Democrats have insisted that the governor drop his Turnaround Agenda, abandon these “non-budget related issues,” and get down to hammering out a budget. The Speaker and his caucus are refusing to negotiate those items because they are “extra.”
So which is it? Is the budget in Illinois inextricably tied to the state of the economy, or not?
I see this post as plain concession to the former. Apparently most of the commenters here agree that economic issues are budget issues, and vice versa; but only so long as they can use that proposition to try to pin the blame on the Governor.
Very interesting.
Comment by Former Federal Prosecutor Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 12:07 pm
The Governor’s proposals are not aimed at issues relating to the budget or growing the economy in Illinois. They are aimed at re-working the social order, because he and his allies believe that they have “insufficient influence” in the Government. The main thing that business is looking for is stability. Knowing that if they choose to invest here today, the rug is not going to be pulled out from under them tomorrow. And they all know that taxes will be going up, even the Governor has admitted as much. But know one knows how much, or when, or who will pay. So things come to a halt while the Governor sits waiting for his social agenda that is masked under a guise of populist pablum to get passed, which isn’t going to happen. So no, I really don’t think it is inconsistent to state that the turnaround agenda has nothing to do with the budget, but the budget does have something to do with the economy.
Comment by Juice Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 12:20 pm
The national labor participation rate has been in steep decline since 2007. There is economic activity in Illinois, as in many other states, but employers are having difficulty finding qualified workers for the better paying available jobs. And there don’t seem to be enough of the good paying jobs to go around, even assuming there were sufficient qualified candidates.
Does the possibility exist that we do not need the same levels of historical domestic labor participation to produce the nation’s necessary goods and services?
And if this is the case, I am not hearing any solutions to a growing population of unqualified and likely unneeded workers who still need food, clothing and shelter.
Each side in the current Illinois impasse is serving a deep rooted constituency and neither is credibly addressing a growing unemployed and likely unemployable sector.
Comment by Cook County Commoner Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 12:25 pm
Saying that workers comp, tort reform, and property taxes are unrelated to the budget is about as ignorant as saying Rauner’s local collective bargaining changes are “moderate” and about “local control.”
Each of those issues directly affects the business climate, the GSP, and therefore revenue.
Comment by Political Animal Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 12:37 pm
– Manufacturing is imploding as our neighbors see growth.–
Absolute nonsense.
The National Association of Manufacturers breaks down activity by every state on tneir website. Growth, number of firms, number employed, average pay.
Illinois manufacturing has grown more and employs more workers at much higher pay than any neighbors.
Only California and Texas are bigger manufacturers. And you could not find two states more different when it comes to state policies.
Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 12:41 pm
Political Animal, let’s see you fiscal and economic analysis.
Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 12:43 pm
“According to the BLS, the Illinois labor force has steadily decreased since 2008, with a loss of 200,000 since 1/08. While the “employment” number has been increasing since 12/10, it is still 500,000 below the 1/08 benchmark”…..the 500,000 should be 200,000. The point is unchanged….Illinois has yet to recover where we were in 2008 by 200,000 while surrounding states have have recovered and surpassed the 2008 benchmark.
Comment by The Whole Truth Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 1:13 pm
CCC asks “Does the possibility exist that we do not need the same levels of historical domestic labor participation to produce the nation’s necessary goods and services”? Good question and I fear the answer is “Yes”, and that higher than average unemployment rates are the new normal.
Comment by Former Hoosier Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 1:25 pm
=Illinois has yet to recover where we were in 2008 by 200,000 while surrounding states have have recovered and surpassed the 2008 benchmark.=
Ok, but tell me…how is putting more people out of work, regardless of sector…helping?
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 1:29 pm
While the CCC question may indeed ultimately be answered with a “yes”, that doesn’t explain why Illinois lags it’s neighbors so significantly since 2008. If the new norm is “higher than average unemployment rates”, what are other states doing differently than Illinois to avoid that “norm”?
Comment by The Whole Truth Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 1:29 pm
==Illinois manufacturing has grown more and employs more workers at much higher pay than any neighbors. Only California and Texas are bigger manufacturers. And you could not find two states more different when it comes to state policies.==
Manufacturing Share of Total GSP Rankings:
IN 1
MI 5
WI 6
OH 9
IA 11
IL 18
Total mfg output and total population rank:
IL 3 5
IN 6 16
MI 7 10
WI 13 20
Based on those #’s, I would say IN and WI and doing better, considering their combined populations are less than IL.
Comment by nixit71 Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 1:32 pm
not to rain on the nay sayers parade, but illinois for 40 years has always had slower growth and rebound rates from the national average…. BUT it has also always maintained a higher standard of living and above median wages.
wisconsin and Indiana are adding low paying jobs, the kind that increase social service costs, and dont increase taxes. they are both below the median salary nationaly and dropping every year.
poverty job growth is not an economic boon, unless people who dont make enough to pay taxes, but are poor enough to need assitance is a growth plan.
Comment by Ghost Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 1:34 pm
TWT, what makes you think they’re “doing” anything?
What relationship do you attach to state policies and employment? 4.3 percent in Indiana, 5.4 in Illinois; do you attach a great deal of significance to that difference?
And If you’re going down that road, wouldn’t it stand to reason then that Illinois historic policies are the explanation as to why it’s economy and workforce is exponentially larger than Indiana’s?
Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 1:39 pm
@Ghost - Cost of Living rankings:
IN 2
IL 22
WI 24
If all those jobs in IN are indeed “low paying”, they are offset in some way by their lower cost of living.
Comment by nixit71 Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 1:43 pm
Thanks for all your work on the stats, folks.
My basic point remains, however. The state is moving backwards from where it was under Quinn, which is not good at all. What’s he doing about stuff right now? Long-term goals are quite important, but people eat every day, they pay rent/mortgage every month.
He made the economy an issue last year. He set the bar himself. And now the state is worse off than it was last year. So, blaming others and the constant excuse-making ain’t gonna cut it. Where’s the plan?
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 2:06 pm
Nixit, why would you want Illinois to be as dependent on one sector — manufacturing — as Indiana and Wisconsin? That doesn’t make any sense.
Illinois GSP and employment base are exponentially larger than either state because it is more diverse.
Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 2:10 pm
WS-
I think they are allocating their resources more wisely than we have been. Other States’ per capita expenditures for state salaries and governmental administration are much lower than ours. As I’ve linked and posited in previous posts, merely matching Indiana’s per capita costs in those two areas alone would result in over $2B annual savings. I think anyone looking at a side by side comparison will conclude they are “doing something” Illinois is not, and to our comparative detriment.
I do attach a great deal of significance to the BLS data as indication others are administering their state government better than we are. The trends in labor force and employment are marked and indicate whose policies are working and whose are not.
While our historic policies may explain why the Illinois economy is bigger (though some might argue it’s been in spite of the historic policies), reality and history are indicating continuing to do the same thing is not working today. We can’t ignore the simple fact neighboring states have been outstripping Illinois in these two critical areas since 2008 and the trends indicate they are continuing to do so.
To maintain Illinois doesn’t have a spending problem when per capita costs as compared to other states are so far out of line and while Illinois is ranked as one of the highest taxed states in the country doesn’t make sense. Continuing down a “more taxes” path without concurrent spending reforms is most likely to result in a continuation or worsening of the current trends.
Comment by The Whole Truth Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 2:18 pm
@Word - I was just using the stats from the NAM website and cross-referencing with population stats. From a mfg perspective, it looks like we’re lagging in mfg when taken in that context, that’s all.
I agree about not being dependent on one sector. And you’re right that we do have a more diverse employment base. Case in point: IL ranks below NY in population but way ahead in mfg ratios and output. That doesn’t mean NY is hurting in comparison.
Comment by nixit71 Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 2:29 pm
TWT, you lost me on the relationship between per-capita spending and employment. Can’t say I’ve ever heard that one before.
To Rich’s points, all gubenatorial candidates sell themselves as Economic Messiahs, although they must surely know their impact will be marginal, at best.
Some get lucky, like Blago, who had a go-go economy until just about the day he was arrested.
Seriously, does anyone think Blago had anything to do with that?
Quinn was unlucky, taking office right in the heart of
The Great Recession and the slow recovery.
The best thing Rauner could do for employment would be to get behind a capital bill. His partisan political agenda that he’s selling as an economic plan is nonsense, which explains why he has not produced a shred of analysis that it would accomplish anything.
Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 2:34 pm
=Some get lucky, like Blago, who had a go-go economy until just about the day he was arrested.=
No doubt about the economy during the Blago years but didn’t he inherit some financial issues from the Ryan days? If memory serves he inherited a pretty serious unbalanced budget. No?
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 2:58 pm
WS-
I’m not making a direct connection between per-capita spending and employment….it’s spending’s effect on business climate that directly affects employment. The premise made that gave rise to your question was that spending cuts/reform had to be concurrent with any tax increase. You asked what I felt other states were doing differently, and the per capita spending comparison was the response.
State spending as it relates to taxes and benefits derived is a factor in establishing a state’s business climate. Our recent (since 2008) spending history as compared to other states is noticeably out of line on a per-capita basis. Addressing that inconsistency would be a good place to start in tackling the budget issue.
The facts as noted by the BLS and census bureau are there for anyone’s reference. Perusal isn’t as easy or quick as a knee-jerk call for more taxes, but will result in a more effective approach. And for those who point to the expiration of the 5% rate the first of the year not resulting in any benefits to employment or labor force since, I have to ask: What benefits do you see in the BLS data for the years the 5% was in effect?
Comment by The Whole Truth Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:11 pm
===Anyone who thought changing the direction of this state would happen in 9 months was expecting more than a miracle. Especially in a state with such deeply rooted special interests.===
Anonymous, Bruce Rauner is the $PECIAL INTERE$T. Fact is, no organization or person has poured more campaign ca$h into Illinois’ corrupt political system than Bruce Rauner!
Comment by BerryT21 Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:29 pm
==The best thing Rauner could do for employment would be to get behind a capital bill.==
Of course he’d have to sell his extremely right wing donors that a capital bill would be best for business, dish out the appropriate pork for their support, and go from there.
Quite a contrast from shaking Springfield up.
Comment by Southern Illinois Hoopdee Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 3:57 pm
“poverty job growth is not an economic boon”
I couldn’t agree more.
Some policy-based job growth ideas in my head, man, are to pass a millionaire surcharge amendment, raising the income tax on those making $1 million or more to 8.75% (inflation-adjusted).
I would look at raising the income tax to a flat rate of 6%. I would legalize and tax weed.
The revenue from my ideas would go toward paying bills, running the government and investing in jobs, among other things.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 6:31 pm
Wordlinger,
Can you clarify what you’re looking for from me? I think I gave a nice breakdown already on how the budget impasse hurts business. I’m not going to write you a thesis on it.
Comment by Political Animal Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 7:42 pm
PA, there are quanitfiable costs to the govenor’s refusal to deal with fiscal matters because of his preconditions.
What I’m interested in seeing is projected quantifiable benefits to enacting those preconditions that justify the cost.
Just yammering on with buzz words about “reform” and “structures,” doesn’t cut it.
Comment by Wordslinger Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 8:04 pm
== The best thing Rauner could do for employment would be to get behind a capital bill. ==
Except HIS capitol bill would require the revocation of Prevailing Wage and the banning of union workers as part of the deal.
Comment by RNUG Thursday, Oct 22, 15 @ 11:13 pm
– except his capital bill would require the revocation of Prevailing Wage and the banning of union workers…–
RNUG, I’m sure that’s the reason the governor has not yet proposed that huge capital plan he promised.
Zealot.
Comment by Wordslinger Friday, Oct 23, 15 @ 8:21 am