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Copley’s complete poll story doesn’t tell us much. Blagojevich’s lead, according to the poll, has shrunk to just 4 percent, 44-40-7 with 9 percent still undecided. The statewide poll of 625 likely voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday and has a margin of error of 4 points.
“These poll results are vastly different from three public polls released this week … and our own internal polling that shows us with leads of as much as 16 points,” [Blagojevich spokesperson Sheila] Nix said in a statement.
If they’re up by 16, why would they be running such hard negative ads? Also, here is how Copley compares to the last several polls:
* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15
Among independents who have made up their minds, 41 percent prefer Topinka, 37 percent Blagojevich and 12 percent Whitney.
No mention of who the all-important undecided voters are, or how they’ve broken since the last Copley poll, rendering this story not nearly as useful as it could be. Still, knowing the way independents are breaking is helpful. It would be nice to know if she’s doing any better with her own base of Republicans and how she’s doing with Democrats (Republicans cannot win Illinois without taking a chunk of the Democratic vote.)
Voters also said the Illinois economy is in the doldrums, with 33 percent saying the economy is on the right track and 48 percent saying it is not. Less than half of those identifying themselves as Democrats (46 percent) said the economy is on the right track.
That’s not great news for the governor, who has been proclaiming the robustness of the state’s economy. If undecideds break on that pocket-book issue alone, the race will tighten.
Besides this, there is the usual stuff about how both major candidates are unpopular and how the Rezko/Levine scandals make voters somewhat less likely to support Blagojevich (28 percent) and Topinka (11 percent), how the public is split on whether Blagojevich has conducted himself ethically while in office (41 yes, 43 no) and how his job performance rating is in the tank, with 66 percent rating it fair or poor.
Undecideds are the key, of course. This late in the game it’s good to know whether they even intend to vote and if they do vote who they are and which way they might break. None of these questions were answered by Copley’s poll - or at least they weren’t included in this story. Maybe there will be more detail later today or tomorrow. Let’s hope so.
SurveyUSA is said to be in the field, so we should have more numbers soon. Unlike Copley (so far, at least) SurveyUSA publishes its crosstabs.
The last Copley poll, released in late September, had the race at 47-37-4, with 12 percent undecided.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 6:40 am
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1 out of 4 polls have it close. This poll should not be ignored but everyone should remember this is one out of 4. Is there any reason why this poll should should carry more weight than the other 3? I think not.
Comment by wndycty Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 7:03 am
I think that the large variance in poll results simply reflects that people still aren’t really sure who is getting their vote on November 7th. I even find myself vacillating (flip-flopping) between one or two candidates at this late moment in time. In previous elections, I always had my mind pretty well made up at least two weeks before an election. Not this time.
For Republicans (and probably Democrats as well), Carol Marin’s column today in the Chicago Sun-Times summed it up pretty well for most voters. We don’t feel that we have many good choices to choose from.
This election will be undecided until the polls close on November 7th. That is why these survey results are meaningless this election. As Jack Benny once told the robber that held a gun on him and said, “Your money or your life!”, Jack Benny simply replied , “I’m still thinking.”
Comment by Beowulf Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 7:18 am
Rich - regarding why the Gov would still be running negative ads if his internals showed him up by a large margin, the answer is because he can and they work. Whatever you think about him, he is great at running for office.
Comment by paddyrollingstone Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 7:44 am
Paddy: Your comment is like saying, “He runs a perfect marathon but he never comes in first.”
He’s not a closer. Add that to unethical, prevaricator and untrustworthy and you’ve got the whole Milarod show.
Comment by Disgusted Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 7:48 am
paddy-
Negatives work to a certain point. But there’s only so high Judy’s negatives can go. They also drive up the negatives of the person using the ad– and ‘Rad’s are pretty darn high. If he wasn’t in trouble he’d be going all positive now to give people a “warm, fuzzy” feeling about him going into the polls. Right now he’s about as warm and fuzzy as… well… a weasel!
Comment by HoosierDaddy Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 8:02 am
Unfortunately, from what I hear, most so called undecideds are voting for Whitney ou rof frustration or simply rebellion. What a wasted vote in my opinion. Sure hope this doesn’t ruin JBT’s chances..
Comment by desperate Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 8:04 am
The Daily Hearld poll will most likely be closer to the mark. While the Comedy Central Guv is universallly loathed by every person ( black/white/Dem/Rep./Suits with dough/people who work for a living/little kids in Trick or Treat costumes) JBT is marginalized; detested in her own Party and largely an afterthought with everyone else. Blago’s negative ads and JBTs own ‘I do not know George Ryan’ antics turn off people and politically - she had the prize in her mitts with the Casino surprize and never capitalized on it. That’s about it from a guy who votes.
Comment by Pat Hickey Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 8:05 am
….and DOWN the STRETCH they COME!!
It is a horse race and Judy is a closer!!!
Comment by He Makes Ryan look like a saint Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 8:23 am
Does anyone know how early voting turnout has been in large metro’s? The trends show JBT is moving in the right direction. Plus more Levine/Rezko folies to come should help. The constant DRIP has been no friend to Blago’s team…
Comment by Larry Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 8:30 am
Sangamon County Early election info….
Stacey Kern, director of elections for the Sangamon county clerk’s office, said more than 2,600 people already have cast their votes since the opportunity was first made available Oct. 16. Early voting debuted during the March primary; this is the first time it has been offered before a general election.
Comment by Larry Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 8:36 am
i want jbt to win, but i don’t think that voting for whitney is a wasted vote.
someone who is legally able to vote and fails to do so has wasted their vote. it is my opinion that voting is a responsibility. if turnout were higher the folks voted into office would be held to a higher level of accountability.
Comment by chinman Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 8:46 am
Just think if there was no Birkett to drag JBT down….she might have been able to fumble to a win. Looks like people have figured out the Concealed Carry Candidate Whitney is a train wreck too.
Another amazing item is the Copley poll fails to report regional cross tabs….Guess that means the JBT team is not doing well downstate
Comment by DuPage Dandy Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 8:57 am
We are doomed. No matter who wins we are looking at four more years of ineffective government due to lack of leadership and the powers held by the Gang of Four. Who has my map to Iowa?
Comment by Ali bin Hadde Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 8:57 am
Beowulf, Ali-
Whitney is the answer! He is not entrenched in dirty IL politics. (Some say that’s why he can’t win, sadly.)
If you’re that disgusted with the other two, why vote for them? And don’t skip this election, either - Go to the polls and vote Whitney.
The more people read about Rich Whitney, the more they like him. Except for this poll, his numbers keep rising. The Zogby/Wall Street Journal poll has him at 16%! The numbers of the other two are statistically stagnant.
Comment by GreenieGirl Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 9:35 am
Yeah, let’s get real. We have a huge mess in Illinois for the next governor to clean up. It will take at least one term to do it. So, who should we choose?
The guy who has been in office for the past four years? Nah. Get real. He hasn’t done anything but jack up our debt to ungodly heights, and brought in so many crooks we are going to hurt for a long time. Blagojevich is going down, if not by voters, then by Fitzgerald. There are too many targets on Blagojevich’s back to miss one of them. We just can’t have a sitting governor indicted, and expect him to do his job. So Blagojevich can’t do it.
Whitney? He’s clean. Not one of THEM. But that is in itself the problem. Outsiders work well if everyone else is an outsider. You can’t get a clean start when you only put one outsider on a team. His heart might be in the right place, but his experiences against the rest of them will keep him from accomplishing much.
It has to be Topinka. 12 years in office. She knows where the corpses are buried. She plays better with Democrats than Blagojevich does. She lives downstate, but comes from Chicagoland. She has escaped the collapse of the Republican party and George Ryan, and has had a front row seat watching Blagojevich’s goons pilfer our assets. As the treasurer for 12 years, she knows how to count accurately, and make the books work.
If you want to see this mess in Illinois cleaned up, give Judy one term. If she is as good as she has been in office, she should at least right our ship of state. Topinka is what we need right now.
Realistically, we have to go with Topinka. Give her one term folks! She has no national aspirations, she is at the right point in her political career to deliver as governor. Stop wishing for another virginal governor, and go with the lady who knows what to do!
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 9:54 am
Things have changed the last few days. I really have no idea what caused it, possibly this Neandrethal comments adversly affecting Blago’s support from women. Whatever it is, he is not getting the same support as last week.
Comment by Garp Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 10:44 am
Blago’s support from women? Who is seriously going to vote in Rod for another term when they have a chance to make history and vote in the well-qualified, first female governor Illinois has ever had? She’s pro-choice, too, for crying out loud, only much more sensible for moms, because she is also pro-parental notification, a very reasonable and sane move that would put Illinois on equal footing with other states. That, in and of itself, is NOT anti-choice at all, but it is PRO-parent. A brilliant, workable strategy for JBT to have, and one that should have many women in her court on election day.
As for the likely “undecided” voters, it is simple: We give all of them one term unless they prove they are worthy of another one. So far, Rod blew it. He’s been asleep at the switch as Fitz has done the work Rod should have been doing as far as rooting out crooks for him. And on top of it, Rod’ll be too distracted by all of the investigations to lead Illinois.
We need change. Female support and male support combined ought to be going towards tossing out the last loser that didn’t deliver any lasting reform around here.
Comment by Angie Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 11:16 am
[…] Rich Miller shows this trend of recent polling: Also, here is how Copley compares to the last three polls: […]
Pingback by IlliniPundit.com » Blog Archive » Governor’s Polling Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 2:03 pm
Since we will be out of state next week, my husband and I took advantage of the early voting today at the County Building in Spfld. and was surprised to see so many people there. Two more votes for JBT!!!!
Comment by maggiemae Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 3:01 pm
Oh, Laura Bush is here stumping for JBT, too! Oh, excellent. Great idea, because tensions over Dubya aside, there’s no one in their right mind who doesn’t adore Laura Bush.
Nice to see all of the heavy-hitters out here in our state from all over the aisle, from former President Clinton to Rudy Giuliani and John McCain to the First Lady. Gosh, we’re just so important here in Illinois, aren’t we? (blushes)
That’s good for your state no matter what party, because you are in a far better position overall when the big hitters find you to be “in play” and are out there trying to woo you for votes. Something to be proud of for Illinois.
Comment by Angie Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 3:33 pm
Rich, I’ve never understood why you’ve spent so much time trying to deface this fellow Blogo. Granted he is probably the worst Governor we’ve ever had the displeasure of electing. At the same time I don’t believe any of the money brokers(read-Cellini/Levine/Kelly) since the Thompson Era would trust this little weasel before a Grand Jury. Faced with Real Jail Time, “I won’t testify before a Grand Jury” are not words he would utter. I believe he would turn in his wife and her father to free himself. Illinois has to free itself from the money brokers, they are the ones who’ve tied this state to the stake since the Thompson Years. I think Levine can talk more about the “republican/democrat” connection at the money level as opposed to Blogo’s knowledge of what’s happening below him.
Comment by Undergroundog Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 3:43 pm
As a HUGE Ronald Reagan fan, I am viewing this election in light or two classics from the gipper. One, “the 11th commandment is Thou shalt never trash another republican” and Two, “the person who agrees with me 90% of the time is my FRIEND”. JBT may be a little more moderate than I am, but she is a LOT closer to my viewpoints than Blago. I have lost all respect for “I’ll take my ball and go home” Jack and the FTN. I am one hard conservative who will NOT waste my vote on a green, but rather will proudly vote for JBT (no nose holding necessary)! It is what iconic conservatives like Reagan and Goldwater would do!
Comment by Daniel Simpson Day Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 3:44 pm
Daniel,
Finally, a loyal republican! Im proud of you.
Comment by Bill Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 5:00 pm
Just think if there was no Birkett to drag JBT down….she might have been able to fumble to a win.
Funniest thing: Downstate, Birkett is the best thing she has going for her.
Comment by T.J. Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 6:56 pm
Does anyone remember what the last polls were four years ago in the Topinka vs. Dart Treasurer race?
I seem to remember there was a feeling that there might be a Democrat statewide sweep and that she was very much in trouble. Yet, she went on to win by double digits.
Comment by Establishment Republican Thursday, Nov 2, 06 @ 9:31 pm
[…] –>Governor polling. A lot of people were buzzing over the Copley poll that put Topinka within 4 percent of Blagojevich and showed a smaller number for Whitney (44-40-7). Frankly, I couldn’t really believe it and sure enough SurveyUSA (45-37-14) and Rasmussen (44-37-14) kind of confirmed those suspicions. Yes, as the SJ-R mentions, it is indeed “wacky.” Will we see someone come out with a late poll result sometime today? I’m hoping so. In case you’re wondering, I’m still an “undecided.” […]
Pingback by A case of the political Mondays: The Final Countdown at The TPS Report - by Kiyoshi Martinez Monday, Nov 6, 06 @ 5:23 am