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* From the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois…
The University of Illinois Flash Index reversed a three-month trend in November and climbed to 106.1. The index measures economic activity in Illinois and shows that the state continues to slowly recover from the Great Recession, which technically ended more than six years ago.
The increase to 106.1 reverses three straight months of decline, which saw the index fall from 106.6 in August to 105.8 last month. The decline indicated only a minor slowing of growth for those three months, as an index of 100 marks the division between growth and shrinkage in the economy.
The U. S. economy remains strong in comparison with rest of the world, said U of I economist J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the monthly index for the Institute of Government and Public Affairs. While state and national unemployment remained stubbornly high for several years during the recovery, rates have come down the last couple of years to pre-recession levels. For instance, the Illinois rate was over 10 percent in 2011 and has fallen to 5.4 percent today. The hope now is that wages will also begin to respond, Giertz said.
“There is no definitive way to isolate the impact on the economy of the continuing state budget impasse,” Giertz said. “The growth of Illinois economy has not changed markedly since the situation began in July. At some point, however, deadlock will take its toll.”
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 11:23 am
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Billion of dollars in taxes are being collected but not being put back into the Illinois economy, while running up massive deficits, due to the governor’s hostage strategy.
Of course that will take it’s toll in lost jobs, business opportunities and spending power.
The governor and the superstars had to know that going in, but they went ahead with the strategy anyway, for reasons they cannot articulate a corresponding benefit for.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 11:35 am
“The growth of Illinois economy has not changed markedly since the situation began in July. At some point, however, deadlock will take its toll.”
It may still be a while before the deadlock tanks the economy as a whole, but the bell is already tolling for those at the bottom of the income ladder.
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 11:36 am
When will someone actually propose some spending discipline? Maybe some cuts to state workforce numbers? Departmental spending freezes? No pay raises? Elimimate a useless program or 12?
Comment by Tone Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 11:38 am
=== the Illinois rate was over 10 percent in 2011 and has fallen to 5.4 percent today. The hope now is that wages will also begin to respond, Giertz said.===
Whose hope is that? not Rauner’s, I think: he seems to be hoping that wages fall.
Comment by UIC Guy Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 11:38 am
It goes to show, that government leaders really have little impact on state economies…
Comment by Union Man Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 11:39 am
===Elimimate a useless program or 12?===
Let’s hear your dirty dozen.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 11:39 am
@word: ==Billion of dollars in taxes are being collected but not being put back into the Illinois economy, while running up massive deficits, due to the governor’s hostage strategy.==
If there are budget deficits, more money is being spent (put into the economy) than is being collected in taxes (taken out of the economy).
I don’t understand what you’re trying to say here.
Comment by UIC Guy Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 11:41 am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Takes_Two_to_Tango_(song)
Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 11:42 am
“@RonSandack: I’m frustrated 2, but taking steps towards reforming IL more important than short term budget stalemate.”
Rauner wanted gridlock. Rauner wanted the state shut down. Rauner wanted crisis, Rauner wanted the crisis to bring leverage.
“@RonSandack: I’m frustrated 2, but taking steps towards reforming IL more important than short term budget stalemate.”
The Owl explains, it was purposeful, and it’s on the Governor.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 11:43 am
You don’t reform an economy with instability. The last thing Illinois needed was being shaken up by a toothless governor who is all bark and no bite.
Rauner has become the problem for Illinois. He hasn’t stabilized our state. The damage he has caused over the past year will be felt throughout his term in office. He had little time for loser political moves, and since his inauguration, that is all he has done.
Rauner needed to have stabilized Illinois during his first year in office, then carefully craft legislation building upon the credibility he could have gained upon the good will and bipartisanship he established during that first year.
Instead, Rauner blew everything up. Mr. “Hit ‘em hard and hit ‘em fast”, did the worst thing a new governor could have done, he burned every bipartisan bridge available, ran ads slandering those he needed to bring on board his new administration to make it successful, and united his opposition like it had been united in decades.
Jim Edgar and Jim Thompson were correct, and Bruce Rauner is dead wrong.
Rauner’s deadlock has damaged his entire term in office and he will not succeed as long as he continues to do what he has done so far. The instability he has created has harmed our state.
Bruce Rauner is a bad governor. Worst start to any governor in our history.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 11:43 am
I think its really two prong.
1- there is direct impact (as noted above) of dollars being collected vs spent.
and
2- (and more importantly to me as someone in business) is that it shows the dysfunction of the state government while calling attention to the debt and lack of will to do something about it.
if I were building a new building, or buying property to setup shop, would I pick a place (country, state, county, city, anything) where there were lots of unknowns? nope. There has to be stability at a minimum in tax codes, and futures to really ramp up.
Comment by Ron Oglesby - Now In Texas Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 11:48 am
Rauner really needs to invest a little more time and energy in telling everyone how terrible Illinois is. He does pretty well, but the fact that things have improved somewhat indicate he needs to trash Illinois more vigorously and with a little more fervor.
Comment by Niblets Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 11:50 am
Please take the floor. I’ve ordered some pizzas and sodas, so we can all comfortably review your proposals over lunch.
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 11:54 am
UIC Guy, no need to pull the school into your confusion.
According to the comptroller, the current rate of spending outstrips revenues by $8B to $12B.
Included in that “spending” is an ever-increasing pile of billions in bills for services rendered that are not being paid due to lack of appropriation authority.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 12:05 pm
Where did Tone go? I am eating some lunch awaiting his programs to cut.
Comment by 360 Degree TurnAround Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 12:06 pm
@MrJM - cannoli and brownies are also on their way. Could be here for a while /s
Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 12:07 pm
- @MisterJayEm -
Thanks for ordering lunch, I was getting hungry and didn’t want to miss this Dirty Dozen list.
Appreciate that.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 12:08 pm
Well… If there’s Cannoli too…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 12:09 pm
@RichMiller, don’t hold your breath waiting for Tone’s dirty dozen. He merely articulated an article of faith never questioned by his ilk. No need for evidence. Politics has become tribal not rational…if it ever was rational.
Comment by scholar athlete Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 12:15 pm
@wordslinger at 12:05–but then the govt is NOT sucking money out of the economy. Heck, last month Munger didn’t have cash on hand to pay the pension contribution.
The problem is not that we’re sucking money out of the economy, it’s that even without a budget we’re spending beyond our current revenues, and whenever this gets settled some additional spending (from the 10% of the budget not already being spent under continuing approps or court orders) will get added, and there will be very little time left in SFY16 to raise the revenues to cover it all.
Comment by Harry Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 12:18 pm
I am assuming that @Tone is spellchecking and grammar checking his list before he presents it to us and that is the reason for a delayed response.
Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 12:19 pm
===Elimimate a useless program or 12?===
1.The lawyers around the “fair share” law suits
2.What they put Rich Brauer in charge of
3.he remaining pilots
4.The folks who set prevailin’ wage
MORE in A MoMent
Comment by Anonin' Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 12:24 pm
Tone is probably busy doing a hasty review of Illinois’ governmental structure and programs for the last ten years so he can compile that list of remaining useless programs.
I brought some apple crisp. Anybody want some?
Comment by Aldyth Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 12:31 pm
==Maybe some cuts to state workforce numbers?==
And just how few workers do you think there should be? In my office we have 1 guy handling wastewater for 14 counties. 2 handling livestock only because the feds required it. And by the end of this year there will have been 64 people retiring from my agency alone. (48 are already gone, 16 are leaving end of December.) 1 is from the office I work in, and somebody is going to have to take over his workload.
Comment by HangingOn Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 12:40 pm
@Oswego Willy - now it’s a party!
Comment by Formerly Known As... Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 12:45 pm
I just want to.get rid of one. The entire DCEO outfit.
Comment by blue dog dem Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 12:54 pm
== Maybe some cuts to state workforce numbers? ==
At the current workforce levels: 1) IDPR is processing complaints against problem architects etc. 2) ICC is taking months to process utility filings that used to take weeks, 3) IDHR is 2 years behind on some case.
What else do you want cut?
Comment by Qui Tam Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 1:01 pm
==Maybe some cuts to state workforce numbers==
They’ve already been cut significantly over the past decade.
==Departmental spending freezes?==
Happening on things now.
==No pay raises?==
Already happening right now.
==Elimimate a useless program or 12?==
Programs have been eliminated or suspended.
Where do some of you get this idea that none of these things are happening?
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 1:06 pm
Sorry - Correction
Above should say that IDPR is no longer processing complaints.
Comment by Qui Tam Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 1:15 pm
I was talking to a retired county engineer the other day about the MFT allotment mess. He is working part time to help out on a project.
What he is expecting the State will eventually pass a budget and sweep the MFT funds. The governor is going to say that the local agencies have gotten along just fine without the funds that they don’t need what is owed to them.
Comment by Huh? Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 1:22 pm
I’ll give you a few programs that should be cut.
Not sure I’ll get to 12 immediately, but here’s some good candidates….
1) Elevator inspections by the State of Illinois. Giant money waster for units of local government mandated by the State of Illinois. And it eats up state resources to administer it.
2) Tanning salon inspections. What’s next, make underage tanning a criminal offense?
3) West Nile Virus. Normally I wouldn’t include something that I think is serious, but when you see how the state regulates it, one very quickly comes to the conclusion that the folks making the regulations are totally nuts. Accumulating dead mosquitos from mosquito traps and submitting counts by quarter does not strike me as the most efficient use of resources. And there’s more….
4) Backflow prevention. OMG, it’s almost beyond belief how insane the process is. And expensive. And inspections yearly, so it’s even more expensive. And the record keeping. For a bunch of backflow preventers???
5) Commercial/governmental swimming pool construction and inspection. It seems like the State of Illinois treats commercial swimming pools like they are doing background checks on suspected ISIS operatives trying to sneak into Illinois. There seems to be a 6 month backlog on everything. And that’s been forever.
6) Private sewage and private water well regulations. And endless reporting. Not to even mention non-community water regs. I realize that there’s federal EPA lunacy at work here, but somebody needs to explain to both IDPH and IEPA that the overall goal is to help the citizenry out, not to torture them with endless, mindless bureaucracy.
For starters…..
Comment by Judgment Day (on the road) Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 1:29 pm
=“There is no definitive way to isolate the impact on the economy of the continuing state budget impasse,” Giertz said. “The growth of Illinois economy has not changed markedly since the situation began in July. At some point, however, deadlock will take its toll.”=
Who has a better record on forecasting results, an economist or person forecasting the weather? The person forecasting the weather. The sun is always shining somewhere.
Comment by Apocalypse Now Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 1:30 pm
Do these pizza boxes go in the recycling or the regular garbage?
What about Tone’s talking points?
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 1:31 pm
===Do these pizza boxes go in the recycling or the regular garbage?===
(sigh) Recycle I think. Anyone have dibs on the last Cannoli… asking for a friend.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 1:51 pm
About that workforce numbers…I think I read that currently the Illinois workforce in government is the same as it was in 1973. Whaddaya want…1940? The same goes for many agencies where a scant few are doing the work of previous many whom are now retired, and loads more are on the cusp of leaving. Many more will go should the inevitable shenanigans result from the not yet settled master contract, and no plan to replace let alone retrain the workforce. The biggest gap I see is in institutional knowledge and first or second year employees with no clue of what to do if it weren’t for the experienced co-worker giving guidance. Once the great migration into retirement happens, the only guidance given will be to stay away from the door…
Comment by Captain Illini Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 1:52 pm
I’m not allowed to put pizza cartons into the recycler. That’s where Tone’s list came from.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 2:09 pm
Lunch is over and we are still waiting for Tone’s list…..what gives there big guy?
Some agency approval processes are killing projects around the state that could actually put people to work across the state. This is due to a number of factors the biggest is lack of staff.
No big deal unless you are interested in jobs and economic growth. /s
Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 2:15 pm
Judgement Day:
You really want elevators to go un-inspected?
Sounds like you are a big supporter of regulations. Doesn’t seem like you’re too keen on inspections.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 4:31 pm
“You really want elevators to go un-inspected?
Sounds like you are a big supporter of regulations. Doesn’t seem like you’re too keen on inspections.”
—————–
First off, if you are going to regulate different areas, at least be competent about doing it. The State of Illinois has failed miserably at doing this. But IMO they have been consistent.
If you know the backstory on the whole implementation of the elevator safety laws passed by the GA, you know what I mean. I was a highly disorganized mess from start to finish. In fact, at the time they didn’t even apply the legislation to the City of Chicago. It only applied to everyplace else in Illinois.
Which kind of explained why every time I was in Chicago proper and I used an elevator already ‘inspected’ by the City of Chicago, 50% plus of the time the inspection certificates posted in the elevator were 4 or more years out of date.
So, by all means, lets expand what’s obviously a failed program across the entire state. And we did.
Secondly, here’s a link. http://www.pantagraph.com/news/local/government-and-politics/maintenance-worker-killed-in-elevator-accident-at-l-j/article_71b453fd-6bdf-5e84-b248-fa898c458b26.html
The incident happened in May, 2015. Last time I checked, this entire regulatory body governing elevator inspections has been in force for a while. One stated goal was to protect the public. Didn’t quite work out that way in this case.
When you start having incidents of failure in your existing inspection program, maybe it’s time to take a serious look at some different alternatives.
Did anybody ever think that creating an intrusive inspection process in place might actually put the people having to do the inspections at greater risk?
Look, there’s enough areas that critically need to be inspected, and be done well. And it’s not happening because our efforts (and funding) are unfocused. We are trying to regulate and inspect everything, and doing extremely little well.
You will notice that one area I didn’t mention is food safety. There’s reasons for that - when things get out of sync in the area of food safety, you can easily find yourself in a “How bad can bad get?” scenario. That’s an area where resources need to be concentrated - not spending scarce resources on inspecting elevators and swimming pools.
We have to face some realities here - we do not, and will not have unlimited resources in the future. We need to adjust our expectations, and our laws.
Comment by Judgment Day (on the road) Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 8:46 pm
Hey, this judgement day person is talking some sense! There has got to be some cuts are this lack of revenue thing is going to repeat itself every three years or so.
Comment by Blue dog dem Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 9:00 pm
Here’s another cut. The other day I was in a saloon and a liquor inspector walks in. Writes the saloon owner up a $500 ticket because some 80 year olds were playing euchre. We got legalized one arm bandits, murder rates out the whazoo, and we’re wasting money on 80 yr olds playing cards.
Comment by Blue dog dem Tuesday, Dec 1, 15 @ 9:05 pm
Judgement Day:
The state doesn’t do inspections. They license the people that do. And you’re right, many of the inspections are done by local government. But the primary reason for that is that the GA passed the law and never funded anybody at the state level to do inspections.
As for your “example,” incidents are going to happen. You’re never going to be 100%. You should be, but you just won’t. All you can do is do the best you can to get that number as close to 100% accident free as possible.
As for the money savings, you’re barking up the wrong tree, at least at the state level. This program doesn’t cost the state anything. Fees pay for all of the state’s costs.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Dec 2, 15 @ 7:42 am