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Why are they leaving?

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Illinois

We may be enjoying an unusually mild winter, but you can still blame Illinois’ harsh climate for again sending older residents permanently scurrying for warmer parts of the country.

Two recent surveys — one published by the U.S. Census Bureau and another by movers United Van Lines — both put Illinois among the top three states losing residents to the rest of the U.S. in 2015.

A continuing trend for retiring baby boomers to move South and West is partly to blame for the numbers.

Only New York saw more residents leave for other states, according to the Census Bureau, while only New York and New Jersey had a higher proportion of movers ditching their states than Illinois, according to United Van Lines.

I have a feeling that some folks are gonna disagree with the weather aspect, but it does make some sense. I know plenty of Illinois retirees who’ve sought to live in better weather.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:25 pm

Comments

I blame Mr. Carrier and his refrigeration machine.

Is it a shock that retiring baby boomers are moving south? To whom?

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:27 pm
I’d also comment that “high paying jobs”, union and otherwise, used to be one of the primary motivators for people to come here to live and work, and still do to some extent. If the pay is low, people are going to look for the cheapest place to live, which is usually not in a northern climate.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:30 pm
Well, are other states with similar climates also losing older residents to southern and western states when adjusted per capita? The data should either back this up or disqualify it.

Comment by Ahoy! Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:31 pm
If the state starts taxing retirement income there will be a traffic jam of older people leaving this state

Comment by Strobby Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:33 pm
All the more reason to tax retirement income when it is earned (contributed), not during retirement (withdrawn).

Comment by thechampaignlife Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:33 pm
It’s not just the weather but also mountains, the ocean, outdoor opportunities, etc. Illinois, especially central Illinois, is lacking in them.

Comment by Sir Reel Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:36 pm
My in-laws have threatened to move to Florida after they are both retired. I get along well enough with my father-in-law that I quipped, “I’ll come visit you if give me gas money.”

But yeah - after being on a trip to a warm area when it was 35 here, why wouldn’t people move?!

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:40 pm
My mom is playing golf today. She played golf yesterday and she’ll play again tomorrow, that’s why she moved.

Comment by The Captain Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:41 pm
Short-term developments - from harsh weather to tax policy - simply can’t be blamed for immediate changes in the number of people moving out of the state - particularly in the case of retirees. These folks aren’t moving to Florida on a whim. In most cases, they’ve carefully planned and saved for their move for years - sometimes decades. Most own their own homes, and it takes time to fix up a house for sale and then sell it. Then they have to buy a house or a condo or choose a retirement community at their destination. They’re not simply packing their bags and leaving because we have flooding or a tornado, and they’re not unpacking their suitcases because we have a mild winter. Each year’s variation in departures needs to stop being read like tea leaves.

Comment by Commander Norton Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:42 pm
According to IP the major people losses are from working age people, not retirees

https://d2dv7hze646xr.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/03_Migration1.png

Comment by Zen Zan Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:47 pm
Another reason why state pensions should be taxed. In theory a state pension paid by Illinois tax dollars would be recycled back into the economy. But if they move it’s helping subsidize another state’s economy.

Comment by Almost the Weekend Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:48 pm
None of the states in the Midwest are really growing much. Look at the link I provided. Most of the states in our region are doing better with population than Illinois, but not by very much. I know people, mostly those who I have become acquainted with on my job, who have moved out of Illinois. The most common reason I hear is weather. There are other reasons I hear too but weather is the most common. We’ve had two bad Winters in a row though so far this Winter has been more mild.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population_growth_rate

Comment by The Dude Abides Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:48 pm
Out-migration is a real problem; one which has steadily become more pronounced. But this exit increase is not weather related … the Midwest has always been the Midwest. The increase in population loss is related to a corresponding loss of confidence in Illinois’ political environment. Unless Rauner can check Madigan at the ballot box, the exodus will increase all the more. People are voting with their feet and will continue to do so unless Madigan is jettisoned.

Comment by Georg Sande Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:49 pm
Well, Illinois is the 5th largest state. Why is it shocking that we’re third in the number of people moving?
Also, to Rich’s point, three of the larger states, Fla Texas and California, have warmer climates. Illinois is not a place that ever was a magnet for retirees. The number of seniors is growing rapidly.

Comment by Truthteller Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:50 pm
We had three prominent members of our church retire to warmer climes. Nearly killed our poor little congregation.

Comment by Honeybear Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:51 pm
My mom and mother-in-law and both in their 80’s and will likely stay in Illinois until they pass. Which is why my wife and I remain. When the last one goes, a ‘For Sale’ will appear in the front yard.

Comment by Bogey Golfer Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:51 pm
I can only speak for my father, who has been retired in Illinois for the past 10 years. He says it was the weather, his grandkids are all in school now, and he is tired of reading in the paper every other day about how messed up his state and local governments both are. He gets so angry about it, he can’t stand it. I’ve run out of excuses for why things are so broken.

Comment by Just Me Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:51 pm
===People are voting with their feet and will continue to do so unless Madigan is jettisoned.===

LOL! “Because… Madigan”

Hilarious.

At an appropriate time, but far, far, FAR off in the future, I will leave for 8 months a year golf.

My Summers? In Illinois.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:55 pm
Georg, Illinois has been losing population relative to Texas, Florida, California and Arizona since at least 1960. Madigan wasn’t elected until 1970. So you can’t lay all of this at his feet, lol.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 3:56 pm
Why is this a shock to anyone? As much as the Florida real estate market was inflated prior to ‘07 it was artificially cheap to purchase in ‘10. Also much lower property taxes coupled with no state income tax makes it a no-brainer. The weather is frosting on the cake.

Comment by Stones Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:00 pm
The Trib piece is from the Census report. These numbers cannot be accounted for by retirees and weather or larger population, because they are nowhere near as bad in surrounding states.

1-year loss of people to other states
IL: -105,000
MI: -39,000
OH: -31,000
WI: -16,000
IN: -15,000
MO: -9,000
KY: -7,000
IA: -4,000

Census data: http://www.census.gov/popest/data/state/totals/2015/tables/NST-EST2015-05.xlsx

Comment by Ay caramba! Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:08 pm
I’m a van line agent (not United) arranging transportation for a few hundred families each year, I’ve noticed the following:
Retirees are leaving Illinois for 1) weather 2) proximity to family or children and taxes a distant third or afterthought for most of my clients. Florida Texas and Arizona are the top destinations.
Non retirees are leaving Illinois for jobs. Texas being the biggest inbound state

Comment by Champaign Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:11 pm
Well, nationally the share of older people in the population is growing, so it’s natural for there to be more folks moving to warmer climes. Combine that with young folks’ desire to live on the coasts-LA, SF, Portland, NY, and, of course, DC and we’re lucky the exodus isnt greater.

How to reverse this trend. Probably not much the pols can do, although they like to pretend they can fix anything if their recommendations are followed. But climate change and global warming may do what govt policies cannot-at the rate the seas are rising, living in the vicinity of the planet’s oceans may well become less attractive. Miami is already seeing the early effects of global temperature rise-see Elizabeth Kolbert’s recent New Yorker article on the subject.

Comment by Cassandra Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:15 pm
I personally know six recent retirees who have moved in the last 12 months. All six moved for the same reason… Property tax bill.

Comment by Blue dog dem Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:17 pm
==because they are nowhere near as bad in surrounding states.==

None of those states have anywhere near the population of Illinois — so they are not going to have as many people moving. If you compare states, you need to compare percentages of of the population - percentages of specific age groups moving - things like that. But then the Tribune usually doesn’t care about things like that when they are trying to get their point across.

Comment by Joe M Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:18 pm
Good job of catching up today.

Comment by DonaldTrump Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:19 pm
The out-migration is the fault of Madigan and the severe winter weather he controls. (Is this horse dead enough yet?)

Comment by IllinoisBoi Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:19 pm
Snow bird refugees now. Climate change refugees will reverse the flow later. Until then let them fight the traffic and crowds. Florida, ugh. Its been ruined.

Comment by vole Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:20 pm
Joe M,

Michigan’s population is 77% of IL’s. Ohio’s population is 91% of IL’s. Indiana is just over half the size of IL, and Wisconsin is just under half the size of IL.

The numbers don’t line up to population at all.

Comment by Ay Caramba! Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:22 pm
A note to Illinois Politicians, Nothing like taxing retirement income in Illinois, to force more people to leave for warmer, lower cost of living states!

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:27 pm
===None of those states have anywhere near the population of Illinois====

Um, Michigan and Ohio do. It’s a combination of things. Weather is probably a huge factor. So are jobs, if you look at the area as a region. It’s not just seniors, young people like nicer weather too. In fact, the old birds appear to be a lot tougher than the younger ones. Present company…included. lol

Comment by A guy Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:28 pm
What Illinois has going for it is a relatively low cost of living (outside Cook and the collars) and a relatively reasonable tax environment. It could be better for retirees in terms of property taxes … but it really isn’t that bad in terms of total taxation. What we don’t have is mountains, oceans or warm winter weather.

We’ve thought about moving but are priced out of our first and second choices (should have bought that property on Lake Travis 30 years ago) but the truth is summers are brutal in Texas, Florida or the south-west. Doesn’t mean we don’t visit those areas in the cold months.

Yes, there are cheaper alternatives but no place that compelling to us. Would mean leaving family and friends. That’s part of what keeps retirees here: elderly parents, grand-kids and a social network. Rising property taxes and a bad mouthing Gov is what causes us to rethink staying every couple of years. I’m a lot more concerned about that than a possible tax on retirement income, although that could be the tipping point for a lot of people.
A lot of the problem is perception. It’s not the complete disaster Rauner protrays. I believe he is actually / deliberately scaring business away instead of being the cheerleader he should be, making things worse than they are. In this case, I happen to agree with OW and Rauner owns a lot of the blame.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:30 pm
==None of those states have anywhere near the population of Illinois — so they are not going to have as many people moving. If you compare states, you need to compare percentages of of the population - percentages of specific age groups moving - things like that. But then the Tribune usually doesn’t care about things like that when they are trying to get their point across.==

Maybe you should try doing the math yourself before making a wild assumption. By percentage loss, Illinois is FAR AND AWAY the leader among midwestern states in population loss:

Illinois: (0.82%)
Michigan: (0.39%)
Ohio: (0.26%)
Wisconsin: (0.27%)
Indiana: (0.22%)
Missouri: (0.14%)
Kentucky: (0.15%)
Iowa: (0.12%)

So, enough with the lame weather excuses. This state, due to many years of poor public policy, is a disaster and people are moving elsewhere.

Comment by econ prof Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:31 pm
Michigan used to lose people like Illinois does now when Michigan’s economy was relatively terrible.

2006-2007: IL: -60,000; MI: -94,000
2007-2008: IL: -52,000; MI: -109,000
2008-2009: IL: -48,000; MI: -87,000

More recently the roles have reversed as Illinois has become the relatively terrible economy and Michigan has recovered:
2013-2014: IL: -95,000; MI: -29,000
2014-2015: IL: -105,000; MI: -39,000

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/state/totals/2007/tables/NST-EST2007-05.xls
http://www.census.gov/popest/data/state/totals/2008/tables/NST-EST2008-05.xls
http://www.census.gov/popest/data/state/totals/2009/tables/NST-EST2009-05.xls

Comment by Ay Caramba! Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:37 pm
Had close friends move back to Illinois from Indiana recently because they wanted to be closer to their friends, families, and jobs (jobs that pay better in Illinois.) They’re property taxes nearly tripled, but, according to them, the convenience and opportunity cost of lost time traveling was a higher value to them than the taxes.

They value their time over their taxes, and there is something to be said for that argument.

Comment by Dee Lay Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:38 pm
Michigan used to lose people like Illinois does now when Michigan’s economy was relatively terrible.

2006-2007: IL: -60,000; MI: -94,000
2007-2008: IL: -52,000; MI: -109,000
2008-2009: IL: -48,000; MI: -87,000

More recently the roles have reversed as Illinois has become the relatively terrible economy and Michigan has recovered:
2013-2014: IL: -95,000; MI: -29,000
2014-2015: IL: -105,000; MI: -39,000

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/state/totals/2007/tables/NST-EST2007-05.xls
http://www.census.gov/popest/data/state/totals/2008/tables/NST-EST2008-05.xls
http://www.census.gov/popest/data/state/totals/2009/tables/NST-EST2009-05.xls

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:39 pm
Regardless of population, by percentage, since 2010, we are still 4th from the bottom. That is a big problem. When Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota, Indiana and Nebraska outgrow you by percentage, it is more than just climate, mountains and oceans. And that is leaving out North Dakota because of the Bakken.

Comment by Shemp Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:39 pm
–The increase in population loss is related to a corresponding loss of confidence in Illinois’ political environment.–

LOL, is there anything that Illinois politics doesn’t control? Cahokia was the largest city in North America until about 1400. I blame Madigan.

GS, by your “logic,” Illinois must be the fifth largest state in the union because people dig the groovy politics over 45 other states.

It grew so large because people had such “confidence” in the likes of goo-goos like Big Bill Thompson and Len Small.

Since WWII, A/C, interstates, jet planes, federally funded water and power projects, plus the jobs brought by a permanent military-industrial complex opened up the South and West to settlement.

You going to live in South Florida without A/C? Phoenix? Houston? L.A.?

Some population facts:

Florida:

1900 — 528,000
1950 — 2.7 million
2014 — 19.9 million

California

1900 — 1.5 million
1950 — 10.6 million
2014 — 38.8 million

Texas

1900 — 3 million
1950 — 7.7 million
2014 — 27 million

Arizona

1900 — 123,000
1950 — 750,000
2014 — 6.7 million

Illinois

1900 — 4.8 million
1950 — 8.7 million
2014 — 12.8 millio

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:40 pm
Zen Zan
People of all ages move due to the weather.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-confidential-snow-population-drop-1218-biz-20141217-column.html

Comment by Anyone Remember Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:50 pm
Wordslinger use recent figures to compare your data on population. Illinois is not growing in recent times like these others states are! It is losing far more population!

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:54 pm
Anyone Remember the IP table image is from 2012, before that winter. Your Trib article is Dec 2014.

But anyways Illinois’ losses are way worse as a % than those states around us with the exact same weather.

Comment by Zen Zan Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 4:56 pm
Where in the survey did it say that the drop in population was due to retiring baby boomers? Shouldn’t they have been cancelled out by the people who moved here to take their jobs?

Could it be that the jobs left too because of our dysfunctional government. It has always been cold in the winter in Chicago and retirees have been moving south forever. What has changed is our economy is not growing fast enough to attract more employers which would drive up wages because of the competition for workers.

Rauner has plans for economic development and private sector improvement. If the democrats don’t like his plans they should detail their plans to grow the economy. So far I have not heard them say they would change anything to make Illinois more attractive to business.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 5:03 pm
Zen Zan
It’s many things. Wisconsin has more people applying for unemployment than Illinois.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/eta20152342.pdf

Comment by Anyone Remember Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 5:06 pm
Yeah, retirees tend to get so upset about not enough shakin’ up of Springfield and that corrupt bargain the unions have with the state that they uproot their entire lives and move south. Or, you know, it’s cold and they’ve shoveled enough snow for 60 years. But yeah, probably Madigan on principle…

Comment by Anonymiss Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 6:23 pm
My elderly relatives have moved because they want to enjoy the outside more than half the year. They are afraid of the snow and ice - falls are deathly to elderly, you know. Cold is harder on them every year. Most of them have not mentioned the taxes to me. Some of them follow their offspring who have settled elsewhere.

Comment by thoughts matter Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 6:28 pm
Along with some colleagues I have been doing some digging into what is behind Illinois’ migration numbers. We hope to publish our report by the end of the month. As Wordslinger indicates - we should look at both the long and short term. As many of you point out - this is a complex question and there is no one simple answer - although many would like to pretend there is. As a teaser, some of our general findings are:

Illinois’ net negative migration is not a new phenomenon – it has been occurring since at least the 1920s as part of a national trend that has seen a movement of population from the Northeast and the Midwest to the West and Southern United States.

Illinois’ migration patterns are similar to those of its neighboring states, as out migrants from Indiana and Wisconsin tend to move to the same states as those from Illinois.

While Illinois has experienced net out migration for over a century, its magnitude is overstated if data reflecting international migration patterns are not included. Illinois attracts more international immigration than the average state and this figure is significantly larger than international out migration from Illinois. When international migration is included in net migration figures, Illinois had a negative net outmigration of 62,503 in 2014 compared with 94,956 for domestic out-migration only: a reduction in net outflows of a third.

Look forward to receiving some good feedback from the group when we release our report.

Happy New Year

Comment by Natalie Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 6:49 pm
blue dog, I know 6 who haven’t. Wow, we’ve really enlightened this conversation haven’t we?

Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 7:00 pm
S Schnorf, ” in my mind it is not debatable” that many people flee Illinois because of very high property taxes.

Comment by Blue dog dem Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 7:22 pm
I have known several people whom moved out of IL after retirement. They all moved in order to be closer to their family members.

Comment by Mama Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 9:14 pm
We will know that “net outmigration” is a huge problem when property values drop, say, 50% due to a glut of housing on the market with few buyers. I don’t think we’re quite there yet. Natalie is correct that international migration is picking up a lot of the slack, as historically it has in IL compared to other states. I do think that high property taxes play a role for some retirees, but not the predominant one.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Jan 4, 16 @ 9:53 pm
Know anyone who left?
Ever leave?
People leave for something better.
It isn’t necessarily a reflection on Illinois.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jan 5, 16 @ 8:20 am

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