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* Tribune…
Millionaires are leaving Chicago more than any other city in the United States on a net basis, according to a new report.
About 3,000 individuals with net assets of $1 million or more, not including their primary residence, moved from the city last year, with many citing rising racial tensions and worries about crime as factors in the decision, according to research firm New World Wealth. That represented about 2 percent of the city’s high net worth individuals.
Cities in the United States that saw a net inflow of millionaires included Seattle and San Francisco.
* From the study…
We interviewed migration experts and [high net worth individuals] to find out on their reasons for leaving. Notable reasons that they mentioned included:
* Paris: Rising religious tensions, lack of opportunities.
* Rome: Economic slump, lack of opportunities.
* Chicago: Rising racial tensions, rising crime levels.
* Athens: Economic slump, migration crisis with Syria/Turkey.
Interestingly enough, economic factors were listed for everywhere that saw the largest exoduses except Chicago.
* I asked Andrew Amoils, the firm’s head of research, if anyone mentioned taxes and the business climate as reasons for leaving…
Hi Rich,
I do not remember anyone mentioning that. I think crime was the main reason people left.
Note: our figures refer to the city itself, not the metropol.
A
The governor might want to take note of that.
Even so, does anyone really doubt that more jobs and a better economy would alleviate those tensions and reduce the crime levels?
* Meanwhile, “Chicago Tonight” interviewed Tribune reporter William Lee, who, you may recall, wrote a recent story about how black people were fleeing Chicago…
WTTW: In your article, you talk about crime and violence being a big part of why African-Americans are leaving Chicago. What are people telling you?
William Lee: It’s a complex thing. Crime is definitely one of the key pieces where it’s used for people trying to make that final decision – folks who are lifelong residents, who grew up here, maybe they’re getting to a certain age, a certain point in their careers, their children are getting older and – every crime that gets close to them forces them to make that decision to stay or go. It’s people all across the board – from college students to the late baby boomers, retirement age, those who have left their careers after a long time saying OK, I’ll move to Atlanta, Arkansas, Texas, Georgia. It’s a huge cross-section of people. […]
WTTW: What could the city do to make people stay, or return?
Lee: That’s the million-dollar question, right? You see a lot of things being said about it but they’re talking about the problem in pieces and no one ever puts it together. Holding it together, especially during this tough economic time, is the trick. How can we invest money – how can you create jobs that will train this huge population of young men and teenage boys who aren’t working, who want to be working, but can’t? A lot of the investment on the South Side of late has been police overtime and not job programs – it’s one of those things that has to be ironed out.
And it kind of goes without saying, but if you live in these neighborhoods, you don‘t have a lot of the simple amenities. There have been quite a few stories about how a lot of the money in these communities is being spent outwardly, but they have to spend outside because they don’t have the businesses they need inside. I try to do my part but most of the time our communities don’t have all the things we want.
* More from WTTW on this topic…
“The city has been losing population – but that’s not a new story, that’s been happening since the ‘50s. What is the new story is that the state is declining in population. The declines are very small – so it’s not an Armageddon situation – but it does speak to the region being in a slow growth phase, and it’s because it’s losing people to other parts of the country for a lot of different reasons,” said Rob Paral of Rob Paral Associates, a demographics and public policy consulting firm.
“They leave to retire, for jobs. And two other things: one is that the whole region is aging so the number of births isn’t as high here. And we used to get bailed out of population declines by immigrants but their numbers are down so we don’t have immigration to save us this time,” he added.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:02 pm
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Well they better get hustling on that millionaire’s surcharge before there aren’t any left! Maybe we can change it to a “hundred- thousandaire’s surcharge”?!
Comment by hot chocolate Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:08 pm
This is why Illinois can not go on spending like it has in the past. Higher taxes will drive business, and those who can afford to move, to leave the state. When those with the money leave, who will pay the taxes?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:12 pm
Did Capt Fax mention the study was 8 pages….and the guy is in South Africa?
Comment by Annonin' Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:14 pm
Right out of the gate with a non-sequitur. Well done Anonymous. Next time try reading the post before spray painting talking point graffiti on Rich’s wall.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:15 pm
Thats why Mel Reynolds is in South Africa.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:19 pm
47th +1
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:20 pm
==Maybe we can change it to a “hundred- thousandaire’s surcharge”==
That was Madigan’s intent all along.
Comment by nixit Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:22 pm
Forget crime, taxes whatever. If I ever find 1 million dollars, I am leaving the state at retirement to find warmer climes.
Comment by Colin O'Scopey Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:24 pm
The report is lacking some basic info about how it arrived at its figures.
Comment by chi Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:24 pm
Maybe someone from the press can ask one of the many longtime members of the Senate or the General Assembly what they can do about reversing this trend. I guarantee the answer is not Governors Own, 60 and 30 etc.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:29 pm
–Even so, does anyone really doubt that more jobs and a better economy would alleviate those tensions and reduce the crime levels? –
Sure, but I think we need to clarify that we’re talking about a better economy for working class people, not a better economy for the very top of the economic pyramid. A better economy that is driven by lower wages will not stop violent crime, and in fact probably spurs more violent crime.
Comment by the Other Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:37 pm
These folks probably live in areas of the city where there is no crime to speak of–remember, parts of Chicago are as safe as Switzerland, we’re told. And the Loop, where many probably work, is hardly a hotbed of crime.
Maybe it’s not the negative aspects of the Chicago but the positive aspects of, say, the West coast, that are luring them away. Tech jobs, better weather, and the cool kids are all out there. Can’t blame local pols for that.
Comment by Cassandra Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:47 pm
I’m not blaming the messenger… but all the publicity about daily gun violence and shootings is killing Chicago’s reputation. A generation ago, young people wanted to move to Chicago to further their a career and be part of the big-city excitement. Nowadays young people want to avoid the city at all costs. “Why would I want to move to or work in a place where I could get killed at anytime?”
Comment by college dad Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 12:59 pm
Crime isn’t that high by historical standards (just accidentally wrote hysterical which also fits). In homicides there were more in 2015, but still lower than 2012 and not out of line in total numbers since 2004 as the decline from crack violence in the 80s and 90s bottomed out.
All categories of property and violent crime are down over the last decade and it was much higher before that.
I entirely believe that people are saying they are moving for crime, but it’s not because of actual increase in crime in Chicago.
Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:01 pm
The eye-catcher is the millionaires. The meat is the bread-and-butter middle class and upper middle class folks who are exiting, particularly African Americans. Since middle and upper class AfAms tend to live in closer geographic proximity to impoverished neighborhoods than similarly situated whites and other racial minorities, the middle/upper class AfAm exodus leaves behind poorer citizens and poverty becomes more and more concentrated and a lot harder to eliminate.
Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:03 pm
According to the study, the four cities with the biggest net outflows of millionaires in 2015 lost 17,000 millionaires. (Of those, 3,000 millionaires left Chicago.) I’m not questioning those numbers.
But I do have some issues about the conclusions reached regarding their reasons for leaving Chicago:
• The conclusions are based on “around 800″ interviews with millionaires.*
• The 800 millionaires interviewed aren’t necessarily even millionaires that moved in 2015.
• Even if the 800 millionaires interviewed were millionaires that moved in 2015, they aren’t necessarily the millionaires who moved from the four cities with the biggest net outflows of millionaires.
• Even if the 800 millionaires interviewed were millionaires who moved from the four cities with the biggest net outflows of millionaires, they would represent, at best, just 4.7% of that group.
• Even if a weighted sample of 4.7% would be enough to represent the millionaires who moved from the four cities with the biggest net outflows of millionaires, there’s no indication that it was weighted.
• All or almost none of the millionaires interviewed could have moved from Chicago in 2015. Who knows?
tl;dr- Millionaires are moving from Chicago and that’s bad, but I don’t believe this study tells us anything meaningful about why they are moving from Chicago.
– MrJM
* Apparently, the conclusions are also based on “interviews with intermediaries (migration experts, second citizenship platforms, wealth managers and property agents)”. The many problems with using such second-hand, hearsay sources to determining the reasons for millionaires moving seem self-evident.
Comment by @MisterJayEm Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:06 pm
The north side neighborhoods like Lincoln Park, Lakeview, Roscoe Village, NorthCenter and Lincoln Square to name few are booming. Because of the good schools families are stating on the neighborhoods and there are teardowns all over the place. The population is leaving from the high crime areas. The millionaire report really puzzles me, a quick scan of the real estate section indicates a very healthy real estate market in the million dollar neighborhoods
Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:06 pm
===A generation ago, young people wanted to move to Chicago to further their a career and be part of the big-city excitement===
You realize that there were far more murders in Chicago back then than today, right? The annual body count is lower today than in previous decades. I guess back then the Tribune didn’t feel the need to document each murder. Frankly I’m glad they are using their ink to cover the murder epidemic in Chicago. I just wonder what took them so long to find their outrage.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:08 pm
===The many problems with using such second-hand, hearsay sources===
They also track individuals. Read on.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:10 pm
=== Tribune didn’t feel the need to document each murder.
Actually, the Trib did a fantastic series in the late 90s on every homicide of a person under 18. It was dramatic and informational.
Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:16 pm
Chicago has the highest murder rate in the nation. Far exceeding the rates — and sheer numbers — in New York and LA. That surely isn’t a great calling card for the state or for millionaires.
Comment by college dad Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:22 pm
There go all the Rauner supporters.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:27 pm
“They also track individuals. Read on.”
I read that they engage in “Tracking of [high net worth individuals] movements in the media”. And I can see how that would tell them when a millionaire is leaving town, but (except for very unique and peculiar circumstances) I don’t see how that could tell them why a millionaire left.
Did a statistically significant number of millionaires tell the press that they pulled out of Chicago because of “rising racial tensions and worries about crime”? I have my doubts.
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:28 pm
===hicago has the highest murder rate in the nation
No. Saint Louis, Detroit, and sometimes Baltimore have the highest rates in most years.
In 2014 Chicago was 19th. No one should think that is good, but let’s keep it in context. Historically, as mentioned above, the rate has been significantly reduced since the 1980s and 1990s.
Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:32 pm
=== does anyone really doubt that more jobs and a better economy would alleviate those tensions and reduce the crime levels? ===
Yes, just about every expert on crime.
These are not burglaries by people who lost their jobs and are now trying to pay the rent.
It’s a public health problem, not a jobs problem, and you have to apply a public health model.
Economic development is part of the long-term strategy for certain, but it is not the first step by any means.
Comment by Juvenal Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 2:00 pm
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 1:06 pm:
The north side neighborhoods like Lincoln Park, Lakeview, Roscoe Village, NorthCenter and Lincoln Square to name few are booming. Because of the good schools families are stating on the neighborhoods and there are teardowns all over the place. The population is leaving from the high crime areas. The millionaire report really puzzles me, a quick scan of the real estate section indicates a very healthy real estate market in the million dollar neighborhoods
It also directly conflicts with the Census which shows that the fastest growing income demographic in the City of Chicago is the households making $150,000+. In fact, since 2010, those households have grown from 88k to over 105K with increases every single year. I understand this “report” is not talking about income, but it pretty much flies in the face of every tangible indicator. Home prices in desirable areas as noted above are at or near records and the number of $1Million+ homes in the City is also at records. Flawed survey most likely.
Comment by Tone Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 2:15 pm
Many of us in my community here on the Northside of Chicago thought we were fully insulated from the shooting, well we do have to reconsider that now. Rich as you might recall I live where Andersonville and Uptown meet in Chicago, we have owned a home built in 1888 on a double lot with the original carriage house and hay loft for 35 years. It’s been paid off for 25 years. Overall our home values have done well again this year, sales have been good and values up year to year by about 7%. We have deep pocket folks living in the immediate area, including Senator Steans who has a home not far away.
But there was a killing about two blocks away last week after a would be stick up man got killed by a concealed carry permit holder, in the same area two others were killed in September also two blocks away ( see https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20160401/uptown/man-shoots-kills-carjacker-uptown-police-say ). A few days later in September a guy was shot 9 times one block away from my home and managed to drive himself to Weiss Hospital and he lived.
So for the reference of a rock n roller like yourself Rich the killings were only three blocks from the Aragon Ballroom.
The truth is I have gotten an Illinois Concealed Carry License in the last year and I almost never have carried a gun even in the neighborhood at night since I got it rather easily using my Army training to replace 8 hours of the 16 required training. But since this last killing I have started to carry at night on a regular basis. So honestly I can see that there could be a reality to people with big money in Chicago getting freaked out by the shootings and are shipping out of town.
We do plan on selling in two years for exactly the reasons Rob Paral cited in your post we will be retired and will not need easy access to the loop and the kids have moved on.
The issue Rich raised of spiking property taxes as being a potential reason for moving is correct in our situation we are now being taxed at around $850 a month and fully expect it go much higher. We are in the process of buying a slightly smaller home in Tesuque New Mexico about six miles north of Santa Fe on 4.8 acres with reasonable water on the land and the taxes will be around $1,740 a year. The cost saving will be massive, even given the fact that our property taxes were not outrageous given the value of our home.
Comment by Rod Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 2:30 pm
Citation needed.
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Tuesday, Apr 5, 16 @ 2:34 pm