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* From a RedState diarist…
The reason the Democrats have a Blue Wall is because they dominate in large population states like California and New York. They are making inroads in others like Ohio, Florida, Arizona, Georgia and even Texas. Part of that is these states are home to large urban areas. The Republican Party has simply written off our urban centers. For this, it is necessary to adopt to what I refer to as the “Rauner template.”
Bruce Rauner, when running for Illinois Governor, did not avoid Chicago. In fact, he went into the city with greater zeal than his Democratic opponent because Democrats take the urban vote for granted. Democrats win the urban vote because the Republicans have abandoned it. But there is one truth: the relationship between the Democratic Party and urban voters is loveless.
Rauner’s outreach to minority communities in Chicago did not win him the black or the Hispanic vote in that city. But, it did accomplish three things: (1) it decreased Democratic turnout, (2) it opened the door to minorities to at least consider an alternative to Democrats in the future, and (3) it helped Rauner perform better in the whiter, more affluent areas of the city. He performed admirably in Chicago not because minorities voted for him in droves, but because urban white voters did.
He got about three percentage points more than Bill Brady received four years earlier, and Quinn got about 13,000 fewer votes than in 2010.
* What that very public outreach did accomplish, aside from what’s listed above, is send a strong signal to suburban moderates (particularly women) that he was not bigoted. As I’ve pointed out for decades, indy suburban women have the balance of power in statewide races here, so that was hugely important, along with his wife’s TV ads about him being pro-choice and not having a “social agenda.”
The national GOP will have to learn this lesson if they want to win back the White House because moderate suburban women have a lot of sway in several swing states, too.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 11:54 am
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Agreed. Trump is trying (very awkwardly) to implement this strategy now.
Comment by Tommy D Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 11:59 am
This article is spot on, about Rauner.
However, in the future, if the GOP wants to still be a party we need to develop a platform to address the problems in big cities. The GOP cares about cities, but they just don’t have anyone representing the cities, so there ideas don’t resonate.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:04 pm
Aren’t moderate Republicans virtually extinct after the Tea Party steamrolled their way into the GOP?
It looks to me the Corporate Democrats have now moved into that political space.
Comment by Chicago 20 Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:07 pm
I think this person is ignoring the fact that he was an unknown entity running against Pat Quinn second elected term. I doubt they’d be able to peel off a significant number of voters in a more normal election.
Comment by Cheryl44 Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:09 pm
That was clearly a template for the campaign, but how has he governed? I appears to me that his governing style is 180 degrees from this template, focusing on demonizing the City and playing traditional Chicago vs. Downstate triangulation. The questions to me are how will he campaign in 18′ and will it work?
Comment by Joe Cannon Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:11 pm
Isn’t it inherently racist to appeal to black and brown people not because you sincerely want their votes and want to hear and respond to their very real issues and concerns, and instead just want to use them to manipulate your image with white people who believe being a bigot is a bad thing?
Comment by Pawn Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:11 pm
Mendoza & Munger will be a good race to help measure whether the “Rauner template” is real or an artifact of Quinn’s political weakness.
Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:12 pm
Nonsense. The current Republican strategy, including Rauner’s, is bigoted, xenophobic, anti-choice, anti-science, anti-labor, negative and reactionary. It will not play with the educated, women, minorities, labor and urbanites in general. Rauner’s approval ratings are corroborative
Comment by Retired Lawyer Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:16 pm
===Mendoza & Munger will be a good race to help measure whether the “Rauner template” is real or an artifact of Quinn’s political weakness.===
This.
Munger IS a referendum on Rauner, a chance to vote accordingly and have voices heard, from Social Service advocates and benefactors that even Diana Rauner turned her back on, to all of Labor, be it AFSCME or any public sector union member, to the trades, who learned in Decatur about the threat of prevailing wage and collective bargaining, and include Munger’s own hometown and Right to Work zones…
The Munger proxy will be the canary in the coal mine… Maybe?
Then throw in a POTUS voting universe…
The statewide proxy puts this Post’s assessments and what Rauner did 2 years ago to anew test.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:18 pm
Didn’t hurt to drop a million dollars of personal money into the neighborhood either. Didn’t mention that?
Comment by DuPage Bard Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:19 pm
All this is true, but lets not forget about GOP primary voters. In order to energize those primary folks you almost have to have policies and rhetoric that tick off those suburban women.
increasingly the GOPs catch 22
Comment by Abe the Babe Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:25 pm
A more cynical analysis is that he gave Meeks and a few mega preachers cash and jibs to bring him votes. I am not convinced he will keep those cotes after slashing services, education and support. Even with Meeks rolling in his 30 pieces of silver
Comment by Ghost Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:28 pm
Some pundits and commenters elsewhere said that Trump’s minority outreach was geared toward white suburban moderates than minorities, which is why he made statements in front of his usual virtually all white supporters.
The problem for Trump might be that he rang certain bells so many times that they won’t be unrung, with all the statements he made and positions he took.
Rauner, on the other hand, kept certain things under wraps in the General, like his union-busting priorities.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:30 pm
This “template” left out that Rauner paid people to keep the vote down in areas of Chicago.
Comment by Publius Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:43 pm
- Pawn - Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:11 pm: -
I thought racism meant believing another race of people is inferior to your own? It seems like you are casually tossing racism into this. and saying Rauner is simply a racist because he is a wealthy white republican. This lax use of the term cheapens the word racism and makes it that much hard to point out systemic/inherent racism.
Comment by atsuishin Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:55 pm
Um, didn’t 1.4% spend something like $60 million to buy the governorship?
Comment by Huh? Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:58 pm
Government. Always. Moves. Left. What is considered “moderate” behavior today could have gotten you arrested not that long ago. The Left won. It’s just a matter of time…
Comment by Vegetable Man Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 12:59 pm
Fair point, but its not enough to run that way, but once elected, you also have to govern consistent with that approach. Rauner hasn’t done that, I will bet my house that Rauner does far worse in the urban centers in 2018.
Comment by ILPundit Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 1:24 pm
Quinn’s weakness + what Ghost and Publis said + people not having a clear understanding of how Rauner would govern = Governor Rauner.
Comment by Henry Francis Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 1:29 pm
atshuishin, isn’t cynically using people for your own purposes, instead of seeing them as human beings with their own wants and needs, inherently saying that you are superior? If Rauner truly did not think he is better than the black and brown people he is speaking to, he would not use them as props and tools to manipulate his image with another constituency more important to him. I think this is racist at it’s core.
Comment by Pawn Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 1:36 pm
Actions speak louder than templates.
Comment by PENSIONS ARE OFF LIMITS Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 2:00 pm
It is a good theory but it misses the reality that Quinn lost the election much more than Rauner won it.
Comment by Springfield Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 2:32 pm
===isn’t cynically using people for your own purposes, instead of seeing them as human beings with their own wants and needs, inherently saying that you are superior?===
Pawn I think this cheapens the term. do you think rauner believes whites are superior to blacks?
He might believe he is, because of his wealth, superior to other people and its ok to “cynically use” them but most of the evidence for that lies in his treatment of the state legislators or state workers. Neither of which are racial classes.
Again, by lackadaisically charging rauner with being racist you cheapen the term and make it harder to argue against the obvious racism that exist right in front or our eyes and was here long before rauner.
One last point: “Cynically using people for your own purposes” strikes me as the chicago democratic electoral strategy during this entire generation. Look at englewood, n. lawdale, harvey etc. They have all had continuous black democratic leadership for more than four decades and yet they are more destitute and crime ridden than most third world countries. Did wealthy white “racist” rauner cause this?
Comment by atsuishin Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 2:34 pm
straw man. I’m not accusing Rauner of causing the problems in Englewood, et al. I am accusing him of doing exactly what his own people at Red State diaries said he did — using people not to respond to them as people, but to raise his profile with white people who don’t like overt bigotry. Rauner’s being applauded for this strategy by his own people. I’m not the one saying he is using a cynical race-based ploy to get suburban white women votes and depress urban Democratic votes. His own people are saying that. Racism is not only horrible overt actions. It can be embedded in the willingness to use people as pawns and see them as less than deserving of equal respect and treatment.
Comment by Pawn Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 2:57 pm
Let me write the story on the Rauner win. “Bruce Rauner won because the incumbent democratic governor was so weak”. The end. Nothing more nothing less. Pontificate all you want–thems the facts.
Comment by Tom Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 3:31 pm
- Pawn - Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 2:57 pm:
I understood you to say the rauner is a racist. can you 1) clarify that you’re saying this and 2) explain why? using some political ploy as describe in red state makes you a racist. He ask black pastors for an endorsement and got some. its true they probably wanted money for their church/non profits and he gave it to them. Some people like meeks received appointments. this strikes me as run of the mill chicago politics, I really don’t see the racism and I think you’re using the term carelessly and helping to downgrade its meaning.
Comment by atsuishin Thursday, Aug 25, 16 @ 5:33 pm