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Illinois is the 16th most Democratic state in the nation, according to Gallup.
A review of Gallup polling data from 2006 underscores the relative strength the Democratic Party currently enjoys versus the Republican Party in American politics. For the year, Democrats averaged a nearly four point advantage over the Republicans on national party identification and an even larger 10-point advantage when independents’ partisan “leanings” are taken into account.
In an analysis of 2006 partisanship at the state level, 33 states show a statistically significant advantage in favor of the Democratic Party, six states show a statistically significant Republican advantage, and the remainder can be considered competitive.
Democratic strength in the United States has grown in each of the last three years. The trends are fueled more by movement away from the Republican Party and into independent status than by movement toward the Democratic Party.
According to Gallup, Democrats have a 13-point advantage over Republicans here in Illinois. That ties us with Kentucky and New Mexico. The polling showed 52 percent of voters identified themselves as Democrat or leaning Democrat, 9 percent said they were independents and 39 percent said they were Republicans or leaned Republican.
Gallup’s numbers are somewhat different than exit polling conducted during the November election here. That poll, which was pretty much dead-on at predicting the outcome of the governor’s race, had 46 percent identifying themselves as Democrats, 23 percent saying they were independents and 31 percent claiming they were Republicans.
Either way, we’re still a Democratic state. The exit polling, by the way, also showed that 52 percent of Illinois voters identified themselves as “moderates,” while 25 percent said they were “conservatives” and 23 percent said they were “liberals.”
Discuss the GOP’s future below.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 8:38 am
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Kentucky??????????????????????????
Comment by What the.... Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 9:08 am
Some of that blue was due to corrupt republicans.What happens if these investigations turn into indictments state wide like we are seeing in Chicago ?I think the republicans will be back but only after using a wide broom and then actually listening to fresh faces and ideas.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 9:09 am
Well, first off, let’s not pretend that asking people to identify themselves as moderate, liberal or conservative actually means anything. It is – by far – the most meaningless question someone can ask, right next to “do you consider yourself middle class.â€
That being said, I agree that Republicans have an uphill battle in the state. Their best hope is to rally disaffected downstaters who want a seat at the table – not just the generous but ultimately patronizing handouts from Chicago Democrats trolling for votes. Unite them with the suburban business community chaffing under a brutal tax (sorry, fee) regime, and you’ve got a coalition that vaguely mirrors the one that successfully gave Jim Edgar the widest re-election margin in state history and GOP majorities in both houses.
Comment by grand old partisan Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 9:14 am
“Discuss the GOP’s future below.”
The Illinois Republican Party’s immediate future rests in the hands of two Illinois Democrats: Sen. Obama and Gov. Blago.
Until the Obama presidential campaign has passed and the Blago indictments are over, the GOP cannot be master of their fate nor captain of its destiny, they will merely be able to respond as the Democratic party’s fortunes rise and fall with Obama and Blago.
But if Obama’s run is short and Blago winds up wearing a federal jumpsuit, the Republicans will be back in the game big time.
– SCAM
Comment by So-Called "Austin Mayor" Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 9:27 am
As long as the social conservatives keep trying to push the GOP further right they’ll continue to be on the outside looking in. As for trying a fiscal conservative approach to appeal to voters, the Bush-Hastert example will be thrown in their faces and make this a difficult path to success. The sad part is that there are very few fresh, emerging stars in the ILGOP, just more of the same-old, same-old.
Comment by Bluefish Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 9:36 am
The future of the ILGOP rests in the hands of the College and Young Republicans. I believe these two groups hold the key to success for the ILGOP but have been looked over in the past. Why don’t we have good leaders now? Because no one bothered to train the college and young republicans yesterday. Hopefully, they’ll train today’s youth and see successes tomorrow.
Comment by Frank Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 9:40 am
Lets take it to the base level. “Liberals” are annoying while the new crop of “Conservatives” are terrifying. “Moderates” see merits in each camp’s arguments but are turned off by the ideologues. The GOP had best cut the evangelicals loose and get back to their roots before they lose what base support they have left. The Dems are gaining ground on them by acting on similar lessons. So, learn to take the middle ground (in the public voice if nothing else). Believe it or not, the voters are more sophisticated than you believe. However, a quick solution for the GOP would be a public flogging of a Ney, Cunningham, Delay, or Ryan. That would begin the healing process. (humor intended)
Comment by Fellow Dawg Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 9:58 am
I agree with Fellow Dawg. The GOP needs to dump the “religiacs.” If the GOP would embrace gay rights, abortion rights, gun rights, stem cell research, etc. they could steal the Democrats’ platform.
Comment by Patriot Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 10:32 am
“If the GOP would embrace gay rights, abortion rights, gun rights, stem cell research, etc. they…” would BE democrats!
Comment by Bill Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 10:39 am
Gallup screwed up. The 2006 election was a midterm election. To use the results from November and extrapolate it overemphasizes its importance. To call it a trend, misreads it.
That said, the situation for the Illinois GOP is still bleak. Illinois is not a conservative state. It was built during the Industrial Age and its politics still reflect this heritage. Since the Great Depression, Democrats have owned Industrial Age political thought. If you look at Blue states, you see mostly Industrial Age economies. These are old states, with old economies. They are Democratic because they have to be. Illinois and other Blue states have been losing demographics, families, and business growth. The US Census already suggests that another 15 Congressional seats will ebb from these states in the 2010 US Census. So, what should a Blue state do? It conserves itself from changes being created by growing states. It legislates to prevent the loss of what it knows. It embraces social programs, regulates competition, and tries to cap prices. The Democrats fit a Blue state’s agenda, not Republicans. Illinois is Democratic today because it was Democratic yesterday. Those similar societal elements favoring the Democratic Party, coupled with the 2006 mid term results does make the Republicans uncompetitive. Gallup screwed up.
Illinois Republicans were Libertarian-Republicans. They have evolved into a much smaller party following the national GOP, which is more conservative. This has made the Illinois GOP less competitive. Of all successful Republican governors and senators since 1930, only Everett Dirksen would fit today’s national GOP image. The only successful GOP candidates in Illinois could be categorized as moderate to conservative. Green, Stratton, Ogilvie, Percy and Thompson would find themselves challenged within the Illinois GOP if they ran today, just as Topinka, the last of the moderate Republicans, was challenged during the 2006 GOP primary. Her loss signals the end of the successful run of moderate Republican leaders over the past 30 years. These GOP candidates were budgetary conservatives, Main Street Republicans, and socially Libertarian.
That is they way Illinois has always been. Blue. Colorado has mountains, Texas has the Alamo, and Blue States has abandoned factories, high taxes, welfare state mentality and a high percentage of elderly. Trying to sell Chicago on what works in Atlanta, Charlotte, and Austin must take into account Chicago’s Industrial Age mentality. For the GOP in Illinois to succeed, they will need to revive Libertarian Republicans. Like Green, Ogilvie, and Thompson, they can begin by running against Chicago corruption permeating Illinois at this time.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 10:58 am
Jim Bunning was as likely to get re-elected in Illinois as in Kentucky. Whee!
Comment by T.J. Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 10:58 am
Excellent point, Bill. The GOP would become “moderate Democrats” and that would be a good thing in my opinion. “Conservatives” and “Liberals” spend too much time trying to figure out new ways to deny rights and freedoms to the people. “Moderates” are attempting to guarantee rights and freedoms to the people.
Comment by Patriot Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 11:11 am
Illinois is far more Dem that Kentucky. Republicans control both Senate seats in Kentucky and the governorship.
In Illinois the Dems control the infrastructure of gov’t. And there’s little expectation that’s going to change soon.
The expectations affect the strength of the GOP candidates to get into races and the amount of money they can raise.
If you were a Republican with deep pockets, what race would you drop a million dollars on?
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 12:03 pm
PS - Tired of hearing how Republicans are anti-stem cell. Did Clinton fund stem cells? No. Bush did.
Also, those who opposed using human stem cells from fetuses have been proven correct - we don’t need to harvest stem cells from them anymore. There are more usable stem cells from ambiotic fluid than from disposed fetuses.
So, kill the myth about how Republicans want patients with stem cell needs to just die. It was never true. What Republicans recognized was the ethical issue raised by harvesting stem cells from unborn humans, so put restraints on how stem cells were harvest. They were never anti-stem cell.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 12:33 pm
===Gallup screwed up. The 2006 election was a midterm election. To use the results from November and extrapolate it overemphasizes its importance. To call it a trend, misreads it.
Read the article–the numbers are an average for the entire year of 2006 with the partisanship measures averaged across several surveys.
Comment by Archpundit Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 1:25 pm
Where have the conservatives gone? And pushing the GOP to the right is the ONLY thing that will save it. Acting like Democrats is doomed to failure.
Comment by Crimefighter Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 1:31 pm
It’s kind of strange how a lot of Southerners still call themselves Democrats but vote Republican for every major office. (They often vote Democratic for local officials and state legislators.) If you adjust for this phenomenon, Illinois is much higher up on the list of blue states. In practice, we may be the bluest large state (New York has a Republican state senate and California a Republican governor). In fact, if you weigh all the factors (registration, key office holders, Presidential voting patterns, etc.) I’d put Illinois 3rd, behind “Deep Blue” Rhode Island and Massachsetts.
Comment by Realist Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 2:48 pm
*Massachusetts
Comment by Realist Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 2:49 pm
12 years ago Republicans held the state house, senate, and all the state-wide offices. Things were bound to change and they did. The only thing that the GOP can do right now is try to be moderate (as in throw support to some democratic ideas to get something in return, and try to build a concencus on certain issues)… and then just wait for the democrats to really screw up, maybe an indictment or two, then we will talk about chances. As of right now, there are no chances, there is only hope.
Comment by Lovie's Leather Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 2:59 pm
Sure there’s a chance…be ACTUALLY DIFFERENT from the Democrats. Don’t BE LIKE THEM on every political issue. Otherwise you may not get my vote.
Comment by Crimefighter Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 4:14 pm
The Illinois legislature become “blue” with a coin flip during the last reapportionment.
The gerrymandering there ensures “blue” representation in Springfield until the next decicycle.
As far as a GOP “farm team”, there is a very strong GOP class in their 20s and 30s coming up who are “scary good” at beating old line GOP and Dem incumbents.
In Orland, a strong Republican thirty-something maneuvered his way into becoming Board President just two years after being elected to the Board, and now controls a $127 million per year budget. he doesn’t even have any kids in the district.
In Palos Township, a “kid” right out college, who had extensive experience in the Bush campaigns out East, knocked out Worth Township Boss Maureen Murphy and Pat O’Malley’s “annointed” township committeeman in the last election.
These “kids” know how to win and win over Dems to their side in the process.
Will the GOP ever take over Bridgeport and Englewood? Of course not. But some of the “up and comers” can sure make a big dent in Dem power if the “coin flip” bounces right next time.
Comment by PalosParkBob Thursday, Feb 1, 07 @ 5:12 pm
Vanilla,
“Libertarian Republicans?” Thompson?
On what basis? Become more like Thompson? The evidence suggests the opposite.
Color it any way you want, when Keyes gets more votes than Topinka, telling the GOP it has to “moderate” isn’t rational advice.
Further, where are these “social conservatives” that have taken over the GOP. $tem $ell Tom? Frank “Walter Mitty” Watson? Party Leader Oberwies?
If your point is that the party must find some issues around which to reunite, I’m with you. If your point is that it can’t all be about “God, Guns, & Gays,” then that’s great.
But calling big spending patronage hacks like Thompson (and his ring wraiths like Topinka) ‘libertarians’ is somewhat silly.
What I find interesting about this thread is how deeply the “blue state” dogma has entrenched itself with those who follow politics.
Comparing IL with CA or NY is instructive. Forget about party labels for a moment. Do we REALLY think there is a higher percentage of center-right leaning people in NY and CA. I doubt it.
Illinois is the way it is for one MAIN reason, and that is the utter incompetence and fecklessness of the leadership of the Republican Party of Illinois, assisted by the rancor and distrust sown by many in the “conservative movement.”
Illinois is blue because given the choices, it makes more sense to the rank and file voter (the people who will never read this or other blogs) to vote for the competent corrupt over the incompetent corrupt. (defining most IL corruption as completely legal)
Give the IL voter something rational and reasonable to vote for, and s/he’ll vote for it/them.
Surprise Surprise, neither Keyes nor Topinka qualify.
Comment by extrawise Saturday, Feb 3, 07 @ 9:52 am