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Charlie Johnston may or may not be right about this, but I think he’s giving Oberweis way too much credit for “growing.”
Get ready to call him Congressman Oberweis. And if you’re in the main stream media get ready to be surprised at how effective a Congressman he is. And if you’re part of the Republican establishment get ready to be surprised at what an effective and broad-spirited party leader he becomes.
I’ll believe that when I see it. Charlie continues…
Poor Jim Oberweis: he’s made all his political mistakes in front of God and everybody. Everybody has focused on the mistakes and miscalculations - and missed the political learning curve of a very good, if often frustrated, politician.
I didn’t see much of a learning curve at the end of the 2006 gubernatorial primary when he demanded that the other candidates draw straws to see who would go up against Judy Baar Topinka, then said he should get more than one straw. He also claimed that Bill Brady was part of some conspiracy against him devised by the Topinka folks to siphon votes away from his pure conservative candidacy. Oy.
What got lost in the shuffle of the bizarre 2006 race was that Oberweis had learned how to put together a well-organized, disciplined and motivated grass-roots effort. He had worked out most of the kinks in his message - and stayed disciplined on message. At events he had developed a real charm that engaged voters - not too light, not too edgy, but just about right.
It didn’t work on enough voters, obviously, or he would’ve won the primary. Anyway, on to the point, the eventual primary race to replace Congressman Denny Hastert…
Much more manageable than a statewide race, his skill at grass-roots politics will play a much more decisive role. While the media will almost certainly see him in the old Oberweis template, the portion of the district that is in the Chicago market is on his home-turf. The rest of the district is divided between the Rockford and the Quad Cities market. Oberweis can buy up nearly all the TV time in both of those markets and largely control his message. Besides the grass-roots advantage of running in the geographically smaller district, Oberweis can do a lot more one-on-one campaigning, and he has developed into a formidable stump campaigner. Finally, he has done very well in that district in all of his state-wide bids.
Right now his most likely primary challengers are State Sen. Chris Lauzen, a solid grass-roots conservative candidate himself and State Rep. Tim Schmitz, who some of the establishment are lining up behind. Neither has the money Oberweis can bring to bear. While both have had electoral success in low-profile races, neither has been in the sort of high-profile race this will be. Lauzen was the nominee for comptroller in 1998, but though statewide, that is still a low-profile race.
This is otherwise known as: “exporting our problem to Washington, DC.”
And, please, the drive-by attacks on Charlie in comments are really getting old. Try to evaluate the message, not so much the messenger. Thanks.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 9:25 am
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I’ve heard Andy McKenna and the establishment are trying to sucker… er, recruit Tony Peraica to run against Dan Lipinski.
Here’s the GOP desperation game plan.
Find candidates who can self-finance so the party isn’t completely embarrassed.
These self-financing suckers for Congress and governor will energize some activists that will help down-ballot races.
But the Republican Party establishment is flattering rich guys to spend their personal money to keep the GOP from weakening even further.
I do not believe most of these recruiting pitches are good faith claims that Republicans can actually win these races.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 9:32 am
I am always puzzled by guys like Mr. Oberweis. He has a ton of money from his dairy biz but needs some sort of ego stroke that he gets from running for all of these offices. Why isn’t he content on making milk and making money? Why do we have to be punished with his quixotic attempts.
Comment by John Lee Pettimore Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 9:59 am
Just like we can say Congressman McSweeney, Congresswoman Zinga, or Senator Salvi, Charlie?
Congressman Hastert probably isn’t going to let Oberweis or Lauzen take his seat without a fight.
He sounds like someone is fishing for a consulting contract.
This is getting old.
Comment by Dieter Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 10:05 am
Rich, I won’t recopy it all here, but I have a counterpoint post up at Illinoize:
http://capitalfax.blogspot.com/2007/03/another-take-on-oberweis-and-14th_06.html#links
Comment by grand old partisan Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 10:27 am
This is so tired. Perhaps BiPolarwies ™ should run for president first. Perhaps him running in a safe district can stop him from putting his foot in his mouth. But beware, I am sure the dems will put up a good candidate too, regardless of where they collect their mail. I know Duckworth has a job, but she may run for that seat too. And BiPolarweis is goofy enough to say something that makes him loose…Got Straws?
Comment by Wumpus Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 10:31 am
I’m honestly not sure how I feel about the prospect of Obie-Wan in Congress. On the one hand, he would be shipped to D.C. as you pointed out. On the other, it may provide him sufficient clout and fundraising ability to use it as a springboard to another failure statewide. If that is the end product, I have to hope that he fails in his bid.
As for the concern regarding the “drive-by” comments on Charlie, I can see your point. It should be noted, however, that this is an opinion piece and as such there is bias of the writer. Under such circumstances, it is necessary to evaluate those leanings/influences. Charlie is quick to provide political analysis in the piece…yet his analysis in races where he was involved has been questionable at best. Based upon that, I have to wonder how accurate his analysis in this piece is.
Hope that isn’t taken as a drive-by…I am simply skeptical of an analysis piece based upon the source and past experiences.
Comment by the wonderboy Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 10:40 am
The issue is: will Denny allow Jim or Chris to take on Linda–leaving Tim Schmitz out? Look for the 14th to be a very interesting time after the 3/08 primary…watch for Denny to “attend to health/family matters” and Tim to get the GOP support to replace him on the Repub ballot (after the primary) and fight Linda for the 14th seat. This strategy takes out a primary battle, cause even Uberweis is not goofy enough to take on Denny in the primary.
The real question is : Can Tim beat Linda?
Comment by one of Jim's Dairy cows Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 10:45 am
Oberweiss, Lauzen, and Schmitz will split the conservative vote. The next congresswoman is Patrician Reid Lindner. Bank on it!
Comment by Anon 3 Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 10:50 am
Hmmm…a four-way primary? I could see it. If Obie self-funds another campaign, that would leave Schmitz, Lindner and Lauzen to fight for fundraising supremacy. If Denny gets behind Schmitz, would that really make a difference? County chairmen in the 14th CD already are not pleased with some of Denny’s tactics, but if Denny himself threw his chips in Schmitz’ corner and pulled out all of the fundraising stops, Schmitz would be tough to beat. Also, Denny could send his troops and advisors to help Timmy in both the primary and the general.
The real question is how well Linda CLV would do in the general. This is still a Republican district, but another bad year and a half in Iraq, compiled with other occurrences, could lead to a change of power in the 14th.
Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 11:28 am
Now that Denny is a back bencher in the minority, how much fund raising can he do?
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 12:27 pm
you are missing the point…there won’t be a primary per se. Denny will run for re-election and win. Then in May or June of 08, step out of the race whereby the GOP will appoint someone to take his spot on the ballot. Hmmm, who will that be? And that person still has to beat Linda
Comment by maybe a JackRyan-esque twist Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 12:41 pm
why is everyone here assuming that LaVia will risk losing her seat in the Legislature to run now, when she can hold off for 4 years and try to knock Lauzen/Schmitz out after it is redrawn it into a toss-up district?
Comment by grand old partisan Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 1:21 pm
I hope this is not considered a drive by, but this is so played. Same old stuff with one sided analysis. He must need a new client. Boooooring!
Comment by Bill Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 2:16 pm
According to the National Security Whistleblowers Coalition, two more FBI agents have made complaints about misuse of FISA and domestic surveillance of illegal activities (including the laundering of drug money) and coverups of said corruption using the State Secrets privilege. Hastert’s name is being brought up again in this context. Who knows if this will go anywhere but it may be time to retire Denny and start fresh.
But Oberweis? There was Peter Fitzgerald who had money, but also truly wanted to serve and did. Then there was Blair Hull, whose candidacy seemed like an attempt at another notch in his belt. To me, Oberweis seems to be in the latter camp.
Comment by yinn Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 2:28 pm
You know, I was just talking with Marty Kovarik about this topic the other day and . . .
Comment by Bubs Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 2:46 pm
Will someone please find the wooden stake voters keep laying around Mr. Oberweis and use it on that old Dracula?
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 4:47 pm
someone might want to look into the results of the Dept. of Labor complaint against Oberweis for that little matter of paying illegal workers $3.23 an hour to clean up his ice cream shops. How did that turn out, anyway……?
Comment by Glass houses Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 9:33 pm
Oberweis Dairy didn’t hire the illegal immigrants. His Dairy hired a cleaning company who hired a cleaner to clean the store who then hired the illegal immigrants. It would be like Ford selling a franchise, the franchise hiring a car salesman who hires an illegal at lesser wages to work for him, would Ford be responsible just because it’s name is on the building how about the CEO of Ford? Oberweis also reported back during the campaign that the cleaning firm had been fired, what more can he do? Just my recollection from the news.
Comment by Frank Tuesday, Mar 6, 07 @ 10:50 pm
One would think after Oberweis ran three times statewide, more than half here could spell his name. Geez.
Comment by T.J. Friday, Mar 9, 07 @ 1:57 pm