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* The setup…
Just days after the CTA postponed steep service cuts and fare hikes, the transit agency decided Wednesday to impose even more severe hardships on commuters effective Jan. 20 if the state government fails to work out a funding deal.
The CTA board voted 7-0 to eliminate 81 bus routes, raise fares to as high as $3.25 a ride and lay off more than 2,400 employees in the latest threatened transit “doomsday.”
The proposal would result in the elimination of 39 bus routes that had been slated for Nov. 4, as well as an additional 43 bus routes scheduled to be axed on Jan. 6. […]
“I think it is going to be horrible,” said CTA Chairwoman Carole Brown. “I am really just so upset that we are going to have to do that all in one fell swoop.
The question: Do you think “doomsday” will ever come? Explain.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 9:55 am
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No
I do not believe ‘doomsday’ will come. By hook or by crook the money will be there. A ‘doomsday’ scenario is way too detrimental to the careers of far too many politicians–city and suburban (Metra and Pace) included.
train111
Comment by train111 Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 10:02 am
No, it won’t happen. The CTA is bluffing. Problem is, longterm funding will be tough to pass in the legislature. Downstate lawmakers could care less about Chicago’s transit issues, and won’t support a big tax for it. It’s a question of who blinks first.
Comment by pickles!! Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 10:04 am
Simply accusing someone of “bluffing” does not address the issue. The transit agencies are required by federal law and labor agreements to provide notice when they are considering a change in service or layoffs. These are not PR stunts dreamed up by the transit agencies because they like all the “positive” attention they generate. Each of these warnings is real, absent new funding. So if the Governor would like to continue to be pennywise and dollar foolish, he can continue to take money that was designated for other projects (and yes, some of those projects are downstate, Senate Democrats) and shift it to the CTA. Doing so avoids a “doomsday” but it ceratinly is not free and everyone in the state is paying for it. Why not ask residents from the RTA region to pay for the RTA service through a local tax… oh, wait that is the exact plan on the table.
Comment by Transit Supporter Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 10:12 am
Absolutely the CTA is bluffing. It’s worked so far. All those bus routes (even the ones that run empty most of the time) are still running, the thousands of Democratic CTA hacks are still dozing away at their desks, and everybody who works at the CTA is waiting for the state’s next handout so they can relax in the good life for a few more years (or decades).
Of course, they have to keep ratcheting up the armageddon stuff every year, but again, it does work.
And that handout will come, no doubt, with no strings attached.
Comment by Cassandra Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 10:13 am
I will speculate that some form of Doomsday will come. While the constant cry that the sky is falling has given them little credibility, I have little faith in the Gov or Jones to work on a realstic solution. The Gov wants to tie in lots of capital pork er projects. Add to that the downturn in the economy that is starting to be felt from the various mortgage failures and rise in gas prices, and I don’t see the money blago wants to spend being present. So blago has to pare back, which would require a reasoned approach. If CTA/RTA releife as I predict requires some paring back and reasonablness by Blago, then doomsday is all but assurd.
Comment by Ghost Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 10:13 am
For the riders, everyday is doomsday. Dirty trains, late buses/trains, crowded trains, rail construction, etc. Last night it took 45 minutes to hit 5 stops on the Blue Line. 2 miles, 45 minutes. I could have walked faster. I’d be interested to hear how many of the Chicagoan reader/commenters here actually ride CTA.
If Mayor Daley thinks that Chicago will be awarded the Olympics with this transit system in the state that it’s in right now, he’s done lost his mind. And raising revenue through fare hikes won’t do it… it will have a disproportionate negative affect on those riders who actually need it and encourage those riders who have alternate means of transportation to use them.
Comment by Bill S. Preston, Esq. Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 10:26 am
I ride the CTA, the Green Line, regularly, most recently on Saturday, in the am returning about 4 pm. The trains were as clean as, say, the Paris Metro, which I also ride frequently. And they came on time, coming and going. When we stopped unexpectedly once, explanations were prompt, unlike in my student days.
I can’t believe Bill S.’s experience is typical.
I’d be happy to see more of our tax dollars go to the CTA instead of, say, to increase the six figures salaries of greedy school administrators,
cover the campaign contributions of Blago contractors via inflated “contracts,” and increase the number of highly paid patronage employees in state government. But unfortunately, I can’t pay for both via any more tax increases. The money is there if our feckless legislators choose to use it properly.
Comment by Cassandra Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 10:37 am
There will be no doomsday, but it is doomed to a slow bleed. As the system continues making negative news and appears on the verge of collapse, taxpayers will become numb and allow it to actually collapse in some way.
When you “cry wolf” enough times, the wolf eventually appears and no one will care anymore.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 10:42 am
I’m gonna err on the side of caution and say yes. I think doomsday is serious and is only made worse by the downstate squabbling. It took them all summer to hammer out a budget and we have a governor who isn’t concerned about the issue of transit. At least not enough for a better solution than to just find some extra money here and there. So I have no doubt that if they can’t figure out transit by the end of the year doomsday is going to happen.
Comment by Levois Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 10:43 am
I don’t understand how one could conclusively say that the CTA is bluffing. It’s clear that there’s waste to be cut, as Cassandra point out, but it’s always going to be difficult to trim a unionized public service like you would a small business.
And how is the CTA losing credibility via the short-term infusions? I’m sure it is in the eyes of the average Joe, but I think the credibility issue lies with appropriators, not the CTA.
Comment by Greg Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 10:43 am
Not bluffing. The money to fully operate in January is just not there - see the Auditor General’s Report if you don’t believe the CTA. Same with Metra and Pace next year. Madigan/Hamos are setting up the GOP to take the blame for the cuts, in an election year, if their bill fails. “Doomsday” will have a disastrous effect on the economy of the region and the state.
Comment by Legal Eagle Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 10:47 am
Doomsday, in one form or another, will eventually come. The current “solutions” to pay operating expenses are temporary. A permanent solution is needed for the operating side. The lack of leaders’ support for Hamos’ bill, which is a permanent solution, isn’t a good sign. To date, while some blog commentors have mentioned the growing backlog of capital improvement needs, I don’t recall any politicos seriously discussing the capital side. Does the big gambling capital proposal include money for mass transit capital improvements? If not, then ultimate doomsday will be when the system falls apart due to lack of capital spending.
Comment by Doodles Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 10:49 am
Yes, doomsday is coming. I think that the capital / gambling negotiations won’t be done in time. The House will pass the income tax increase. Blago’s puppet in the Senate President’s chair doesn’t have enough balz to pass it and throw it in Blago’s lap. He owes the Governor for all his family revenues. So then the RTA will funding will run out and doomsday will suck badly for all, it will be even worse then it was originally thanks to Blago’s short sighted, I mean short term fixes.
If by some miracle the senate did pass the tax increase, Blago would not have the courage that he wants Emil to have. He would sign it to avoid wearing the blame for doomsday.
Comment by Napoleon Has Left The Building Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 10:52 am
To the question, I don’t think doomsday will arrive. Possibly a modest fare increase and one or two service cuts, but no doomsday.
I agree with others that “bluffing” is not the right word. I have no insight to the inner workings of the CTA, but save some hidden reserve of millions no one knows about, the projected cuts are very real if there is no money from the state. Of course, it is to the CTA’s benefit to make sure everyone knows the severity of the cuts to agitate them into pressing Springfield into fixing the problem.
All that being said, I do think that the typicaly CTA rider is beginning to get numb to the term “doomsday.” Based on the past couple months, it is perfectly reasonable to think that the there will be yet another 11th hour fix to avoid doomsday.
Comment by montrose Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 10:58 am
Beware the ides of March.
Comment by Ghost Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 11:02 am
Yes, Doomsday will come. Maybe not immediately, but the fact is that while private industry has leveraged increased productivity brought about by technology to reduce the number of workers needed, the CTA has invested in a lot of technology (such as the fare card machines etc.) but not reduced its headcount as much as it should have due to the gains from these technologies.
And clearly, there should be a bi-yearly evaluation of bus service to determine where the popular routes are and where the unpopular routes are and at what times they are popular or unpopular. If few people ride the 22 or 151 between the hours of 10-2, then don’t run buses during that time. In all honesty though, I’ve seen a lot more empty Pace buses rambling about than empty CTA buses.
As for timeliness, it’s a lot easier to keep a train on time (except for accidents, construction etc.) than it is a bus. Buses are susceptible to all the delays of a private car plus the additional time of all the stops. No one takes a bus to save time, they take a bus because it’s cheaper or they can do other things while they’re on it (read, do work…).
Comment by cermak_rd Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 11:11 am
Remember Blaggo dipped into the Series B Transportation Bond fund for his latest grandstand. Balance there is $281 million
So to quote Blaggo “what’s the rush?”
Comment by Mr. W.T. Rush Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 11:15 am
Doomsday will come when we have a bridge collapse or another train derail because the state and cta are using the funds for repairs and improvments to infrastructe to run the day to day operations. People will be inconvinenced yes but it is likely people will die also.
Comment by FED UP Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 11:21 am
Doomsday should have already arrived. By backing down twice out of fear that Blago’s bailout stunts would force their boards to take the blame for a shutdown/fare increase, the CTA and RTA have now lost all credibility. Eventually, they’ll take the money from the casino bailout stunt being touted by Blago to once again avoid doomsday. Then they’ll be right back begging for more in a few years. The problem is the revenue from the casino plan is not stable and will drop sharply come January when the smoking ban goes into effect. Much of the money from new boats will be making up for the losses. And then everyone will be up the creek since the magic casino money tree will not be producing like they bet it would.
Comment by Bluefish Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 12:06 pm
Doomsday is not a bluff - it will happen if PACE and CTA do not get substantial additional funding soon.
I think doomsday will be averted somehow ,if there is any shred of rationality left in the legislature. The Hamos Bill can easily pass the House and the Senate in January. When Blago vetos it, he will seal his personal political doom. Blago/Jones are the politicans who have been st up to take the fall if Doomsday cuts are implemented,not Republicans.
Republicans become bit players again on January 1. I still think Republicans will trade their votes for the Hamos plan to achieve a veto proof supermajority, if a substantial capital bill can be enacted.
All that being said, I am definitely suffering from chronic doomsday fatigue syndrome.
Comment by Captain America Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 12:09 pm
Of the train lines, the red and the blue are the worst. Green and brown are in pretty decent shape. Orange is the best (surprise, surprise, its the newest)
The blue line experience that was talked about is far from rare. It happens quite often. And the blue line trains are in absolutely awful shape. We still have accordion doors.
I actually hope doomsday does come. I think that may be the only thing that forces springfield’s hand.
Comment by jerry 101 Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 12:16 pm
Cassandra, you are LUCKY to get to ride the Green line. Remember that the tracks, signals, switches were completely rebuilt back in the early 90’s. I’m always shocked how fast trains run on the Green line the couple times a year I end up riding it somewhere. My red line commute home last night from Jackson to Berwyn, a distance of roughly 7 miles, took 1 hour. The reality is the two busiest lines by far in the system, Red and Blue, have entire branches that are extremely slow and are in dire conditions which cause delayed trains and other issues which negatively impact service. For every “normal commute day” on the Red line there are three days that consist of some sort of delay, slowdown, major overcrowding, etc. Things are so bad on the far North Side that several station’s roofs have collapsed and are now held up by temporary sheet metal or wood. There are also several viaducts over busy streets that are shored up by steel beams.
At what point does the governor’s stealing from capital to operations result in a horribe accident such as a station collapsing or a bridge giving out? Certainly his crafty ways with funds cannot continue for another year as Tom Cross pointed out might happen.
The political situation is so sad that if CTA had raised fares a small amount to try and cut into the deficit, it would just cause Springfield to lessen the amount they are willing to add in permanent funding, essentially wiping out any effects of a fare increase now. Sad, but true. Its all a game to see who wins. Downstate Republicans are very shortsighted and rather myopic if they can’t see the real numbers of the amount of money the CTA pumps into Illinois’ economy and the resulting tax dollars generated. I say we find a way to really stick it to ‘em next year. Every man for himself, I say lets do it. Let them see how their districts do in fact depend on the financial stability of the Chicago area.
Comment by Ed Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 12:20 pm
I think Doomsday will be settled before January 20th. This latest deadline is dangerously close to Feb 5th. The last thing legislators want is doomsday to be fresh in the minds of voters a few weeks from election day.
Comment by unbiased Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 1:07 pm
Doomsday will probably never come, but as stated previously the bleeding of the mass transit system will continue. As long as there is no leadership, the problems will continue.
The real solutions are clear. There shouldn’t be 2 highway departments (IDOT and the Tollway Authority). There shouldn’t be 3 mass transit authorities (Pace, CTA, and Metra). There should be unwavering support and cooperation among our leaders for fixing one of the worst regions in the country to get around (2nd worst to NYC in 2002 according to the US Census Bureau). There should be a way to go around, not just into, Chicago on a train (the EJ&E tracks are there to be used). There should be ramifications to the god-awful results of the recent evaluation of the CTA operations.
But we elect guys like Daley, Stroger, and Blagojevich–all Democrats, all full of baloney–in charge. So prices will go up, and service/quality will go down.
Comment by Lefty Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 1:07 pm
Doomsday is here, everyday. A hour or more to travel 7 miles. Capital needs that go unfunded. Little leadership. Little apparent interest in mass transit from Daley until very, very recently. And–this is really unbelievable–people talking seriously about cuttting mass transit even more, as though that will make the state and region more competitive. And residents worrying themselves sick for months how much worse things will become.
What a sick freaking joke. Welcome to modern Chicago.
Comment by tom73 Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 1:17 pm
While Doomsday will not be kind,
Stopgap funding creates more of a bind.
Robbing Peter for Paul,
May put off the downfall,
But the boards just fall further behind.
Comment by Limerick Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 1:57 pm
Ed:
I am a Berwyn stopper too! Can you believe that the last time there was any major work done on that station it was 1914??? 1914! The Titanic sinks, two years later there is work done on the Berwyn stop and ever since then, nothing.
Some of the CTA’s problems are its own fault, but when I drive past some of the broken down tracks, when I see a broken down bus on Foster each day, when taking the Blue line to O’Hare takes longer than driving on the Kennedy at 6PM on a Friday, I cannot imagine that they are bluffing. A quick fix will just be a quick fix, but just throwing cash at the problem will not solve anything either. The state and city need to do a better job of holding the CTA responsible and make sure that they are running their operations efficiently. However, when that is being done and when the CTA has competent leadership like I believe it has now, then our officials need to do their job and support mass transit.
Mass transit is good for business and its good for the environment.
Comment by TR Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 2:49 pm
No longer a regular CTA user. Bicycles are faster. The Downstate obstructionists are out for themselves — what I don’t understand is the suburban Republicans whose constituents depend on Metra trains and Pace and CTA express bus services to get to work.
Sorry, but I think Chicago will end up as a second or even third-class city unless it breaks off from the state of Illinois — preferably complete with most of the suburbs who are also on the hook for this. Urban and rural interests just don’t jibe. And unlike in Minnesota, where the last eight years have seen the metro area win a crushing political war against the rest of the state with the result that real hardship has been created in rural areas when it comes to public services, in Illinois, where the metro area is even a bigger part of the state than in Minnesota, Downstaters are apparently able to set the city of Chicago and suburbs against one another. Rural Minnesotans ought to come down here to learn Downstate’s political secrets.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 3:12 pm
Oh, sorry, I just forgot. The city and burbs are quite adept at hating one another without any assistance from south of I-80. Maybe it’s the other way around — Chicago and the burbs need to go up to Minnesota to learn the Twin Cities’ political secrets. The only no-bid contracts up there are the ones run by the state.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 3:14 pm
Angry:
The suburban Republicans are doing this because they cannot come up with any plan-nothing- to get anything done. Therefore they are being obstructionists just to be obstructionists. Also, it doesnt help that many of their no tax whacks in Wheaton and Barrington could give a care about urban poor who rely on the 80 bus to get to their job.
Comment by TR Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 3:39 pm
Unfortunately I think doomsday may occur. Speaker Madigan seems a little distracted and I don’t think he’ll cut a deal. Maybe the rumors about his alleged personal issues that everyone’s talking about in Springfield are actually true.
Comment by Little Debbie Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 3:48 pm
We would appreciate if our legislators would eliminate the CTA as a transit agency, merge the bus system into Pace, trains to Metra and eventually create one transit agency.
No offense Ron Huberman, but the Daley regime has proven it can’t run a transit system.
Comment by OpenlineBlog.com Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 3:48 pm
Doomsday is like the “Killer Bees.”
You’ve been warned and threatened about it, but you won’t see it.
Comment by HelpMeUnderstand Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 4:53 pm
Doomsday will eventually come when the bucks to make special deals run out or one of the top 5 gets in a strong enough position to pin the entire problem on whoever happens to be the “other side” that week. Comptroller’s data is clearly showing a slow down in revenue to the state. The pot can only get so small before some slices can no longer be paid. May not be 100% Doomsday to transit, but other state funded groups will feel the pinch when bucks get reshifted to avoid a political meltdown. The “rob Peter/pay Paul” syndrome only lasts so long before reality sets in.
Comment by zatoichi Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 5:56 pm
No.WT Rush is right. Not only does the governor have in excess of $200M available in other bond funds, he also has discretion under federal law to reprogram massive amounts of federal general transportation funds that would otherwise go to highways (see Rendell, Pennsylvania) and to reallocate federal transit dollars among CTA, Metra, and Pace.
Not only that, Metra hid $50 million when it revised its budget in August to reflect the first band-aid, causing two Republican RTA directors to object. (The Daily Herald is the only paper that covered that dispute). IDOT and the Gov’s office know about all of these options, even if the media don’t, and it’s not in the transit agencies’ interest to publicize them.
Comment by Sage Observer Thursday, Nov 8, 07 @ 6:56 pm
No, doomsday will never come, but not because the CTA is bluffing. It isn’t. If the money doesn’t come in, the empoyees go out, and services are cut.
However, the GA, governor, and mayor will not let that happen. As someone said, too many elected officials on the hooks for it.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Nov 9, 07 @ 8:26 am