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Iowa caucus open thread

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Just in case you want to talk about the results…

* I’ll be watching my pal Jeff Mayers’ site IowaPolitics.Com

* Democratic results

* Republican results

* Lynn Sweet

* Mother Tribune’s Swamp

* I guess I should also link to the National Journal’s Hotline On Call blog as well.

* CNN Iowa

* ABC News live caucus blog

Add others in comments.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 5:39 pm


  1. Rich, please provide a liberal amount of conservative analysis on Obama and Huckaby Giulliani etc. developments. Your insights are very interesting. Thanks!

    Comment by A Citizen Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 5:53 pm

  2. I don’t plan on monitoring it closely like an Illinois election. Y’all can do what you want with this post. I’ll check in every now and then.

    Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 5:55 pm

  3. Rich, then put a GPS Tracker on the Obama Caddy and a map that shows its wanderings. Is your Dad driving it - Obama riding etc.? Some personal insights would be fun.

    Comment by A Citizen Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 5:59 pm

  4. The Iowa caucus may very well be the beginning of the end for Hillary Clinton and others.

    Comment by Patriot Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 6:00 pm

  5. democrats:

    Comment by bored now Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 6:03 pm

  6. Dad is in Des Moines. The heat went out on the Obamalac, so I doubt he’ll be driving anyone around.

    Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 6:03 pm

  7. Google-made caucus map

    Comment by Kiyoshi Martinez Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 7:41 pm

  8. Looks like the Obamalac has carried the flag for Obama. He’s kick’n Hill’s, uh, uh, butt.

    Comment by A Citizen Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 7:46 pm

  9. Another great blog/site:
    Iowa Independent

    Comment by Kiyoshi Martinez Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 8:27 pm

  10. Interesting development from the Iowa Independent, that there’s an Obama-Richardson swap deal going on.

    Comment by Kiyoshi Martinez Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 8:30 pm

  11. NBC is calling it for Barack!!!!!

    Comment by Tucker McElroy Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 8:32 pm

  12. Like watching a scrimmage or practice game; the results don’t really mean a lot. But,I’m happy for Barack.

    Comment by steve schnorf Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 8:40 pm

  13. Ahhh yes - The Art of the deal. Sure adds to the credibility of the Iowa cauci. Would be nice if they kept it “straight”, but that would be naive. Wonder how many Chicagoans voted?

    Comment by A Citizen Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 8:47 pm

  14. Well one defeat down for Senator Clinton. Huckabee surprised me. He just caught steam and it helped him in the caucuses.

    Comment by Levois Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 8:52 pm

  15. Could President Obama svae his home state from the jokers in Sprinfield? He called on Kenya for peace maybe he can call on Sprigfield? I have hope
    In truel Illinois fashion we could use more federal road and other money
    On the flip side could Illinois politics hurt him?
    A new Yorker said no everone knows about Illinois its always been “that way”

    Comment by westernillinois cynic Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 8:55 pm

  16. That was an ole fashon butt kickin’. Steve, what is your take on Rudy skipping everything until Florida?

    Comment by He makes Ryan look like a Saint Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 8:56 pm

  17. I think it should be fun to hear from all those people who predicted the invincibility of the Clintons. Iowa ain’t the whole thing, obviously, but her armor has been pierced in a huge way.

    On the other side, I’ll have some choice words for the national media about their Huckabee coverage tomorrow.

    Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 9:01 pm

  18. Romney attacked Huckabee and it backfired. I agree Rich, if Clinton gets third it is bad for her, good for the country

    Comment by He makes Ryan look like a Saint Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 9:04 pm

  19. I’m glad Rudy fell flat. Hey Rudy, what comes after nine?

    Comment by Gregor Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 9:04 pm

  20. It looks like Obama is the winner. Wow! This is going to be really interesting over the next six weeks.

    Comment by DuPage Dave Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 9:18 pm

  21. I’m pretty impressed with Rudy. I’ve only met him once, but I was pretty impressed. A few days after 9/11, I had the opportunity to sit through one of his war room meetings with his staff and cabinet. He clearly was in charge, knew the issues, including pretty detailed stuff. I’ve watched high elected officials in stressful situations (nothing close to 9/11, of course) and the guy impressed the hell out of me.

    Comment by steve schnorf Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 9:20 pm

  22. I am concerned about his decision to basically bypass Iowa, NH and SC and bank on FL.

    Comment by He makes Ryan look like a Saint Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 9:24 pm

  23. Hill sounded like Blags - “it has been a good day” - this after she finished third with the cardboard medal. Obama, gold - Edwards, lead. Huckaby, Platinum!

    Comment by A Citizen Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 9:29 pm

  24. Hilary can say she boosted Bill’s Iowa caucus percentage by a factor of 10 (he got 3% in ‘92)

    Obama’s victory should be no surprise since the national media has given him nothing but fawning coverage. Unfortunately for Hilary, she really can’t go after his record in a primary, because his vulnerabilities are seen as assets by the liberal Democrat base and media — dismantling welfare reform, sponsoring taxpayer-paid universal health car, soft on crime, etc. etc.

    On the Republican side, I didn’t expect to be impressed with Huckabee. But he continues to surprise. He was remarkable on Leno last night — definitely looked and sounded like a first-tier candidate — relaxed, good jokes, charming.

    Not that I’m ready to vote for him — but I’m not as worried about him as I once once. A Giuliani/Huckabee ticket could be strong.

    Unless Romney just crushes everyone in New Hampshire, he may be done for.

    Comment by Old Elephant Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 9:38 pm

  25. Rich, if you mean the lack of coverage for Huckablee…I agree, in spite of being an Obama supporter. They’ve virtaully ignored the GOP race. I don’t think it is a “liberal media” bias…just that HRC’s embarassing loss was a sexier story.

    BTW, A Citizen, your assertion that Obama rigged the vote with Chicago voters is absurd.

    Comment by JonShibleyFan Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 9:39 pm

  26. - JonShibleyFan -
    I did not mean to assert that! Just an unfortunate snide remark. Tongue in gear before brain.

    Comment by A Citizen Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 9:51 pm

  27. Oh. Must have misread.

    Comment by JonShibleyFan Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 9:52 pm

  28. A couple thoughts-

    1)Looks like Big Bob Kj picked the wrong horse.

    2)AA will be extremely surprised if a Rezko blast isn’t fired from Hillaryland in the next few days.

    3) What was the Hill thinking when she stood on TV with Bubba on one side and that old bag Albright on the other? The R equivalent would be taking the stage with W on one side and pick it, Cheney, Rummy, Baghdad Bob, or Osama bin Laden on the other.

    4) A number of R’s may be grateful for no media saturation of Huckabee…

    Comment by Arthur Andersen Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 10:02 pm

  29. So, Iowa’s being lily white isn’t as much as concern since Prince O seems to be winning?

    Is the headline “Obama wins” or “Edwards trails by 8″?

    And interesting that Thompson came in 3rd.

    Comment by Pat Collins Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 10:11 pm

  30. This is how Chicago organizes! The steamroller has left the garage. Also, Hillary shouldn’t have gone negative during Christmas.

    Comment by Moe Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 10:17 pm

  31. That was some speech by Obama. Made the other candidates look small by comparison.

    Huckabee blew me away with his subtle digs at the Bush administration and his message about “love.” Too many in national politics live for their hate, thrive on it and even openly encourage it. That was a heckuva speech.

    Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 10:38 pm

  32. Oh crap. this is going to be so confusing! Republicans voting for Obama and Democrats voting for Huckabee. Er, uhh, Go Huckabee!

    Comment by A Citizen Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 10:50 pm

  33. Agree with Rich on the speeches - except I thought Huckabee’s could have been a tiny bit tighter (shorter). Thought Romney’s was the most conciliatory of the Place/Show speeches. Edwards’ was the worst - dove right into a stump speech.

    Hillary took subtle digs, which is OK. Some anaylst on CNN said Hillary’s speech boiled down to: “I have a lot of money and institutional support. I should be president.” Ouch.

    Boo to WLS TV and Andy Shaw for cutting away before Obama finished.

    Comment by JonShibleyFan Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 10:52 pm

  34. Marin & NBC cut away before the end of Obama’s speech too. Who would have thought that WGN would have the best local Chicago coverage?

    Rich, I second your emotion on Barack’s speech. Not only is what he’s saying great, but the man can deliver a speech. Not shrill, not slick… he’s got the voice and excellent cadence. I just wish he could do that during a debate.

    Comment by Bill S. Preston, Esq. Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 11:10 pm

  35. The only thing that could have made Obama’s speech grander is if he’d actually congratulated Huckabee and welcomed him to this push for change in America.

    Comment by Frank Booth Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 11:19 pm

  36. I’m floored by Obama’s margin of victory. But I’m equally floored by Edwards defeating Clinton, even if it’s only by half a percentage point. Given the way he was outspent and supposedly outorganized, it’s an absolutely incredible performance, and he deserves to always be taken as a serious candidate. No more Obama/Clinton duality, it’s a three person race.

    And I’ll admit that I don’t like Clinton, and am delighted by her third place finish for a variety of reasons. I really think that now that the myth of “she can’t be beat, she is the nominee” has been blown wide open, that she’ll continue to slip even further. People were sticking with her because they absolutely want a winner come November, but if she can’t even beat two one term senators, one who’s not even in office anymore, and the other a goofy looking black guy with a name like Barack Hussein Obama, well, this is probably a run-on sentence by now, and you all get the idea.

    And I was also taken by surprise by Huckabee. I think he’s an absolute nutcase theocrat, but he was more charming than Obama on Leno last night, and he beat the pants off of Romney while being outspent 10 or 20 to 1.

    Money doesn’t always buy elections. A hard lesson to remember while living in Illinois.

    Comment by Sacks Romana Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 11:23 pm

  37. I think this increases the prospects for a bi-partisan ticket of McCain-Lieberman.

    Comment by Bi-Partsan Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 11:53 pm

  38. I bet those two Illinois districts without Huckabee delegates now wish they had them.

    Comment by elginite Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 11:56 pm


    Comment by Isbell Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 12:03 am

  40. “It’s time for change”, “take the power away from lobbyists & special interests”, blah-blah-blah. Tony Rezko was nothing compared to what can be LEGALLY had from big oil and the drug companies. Mucho campaign contributions. Nah, HE’D never take them …

    Comment by Snidely Whiplash Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 12:15 am

  41. Oh, and can someone please tell me how Obama can back up his preposterous claim that HE “greatly expanded health care in Illinois”???????? Please? I must have been asleep when the former (and almost unknown) state senator pulled off such a herculean feat without notice.

    Comment by Snidely Whiplash Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 12:21 am

  42. Why was my post pointing out that Obama received only 940 votes in Iowa deleted? I was merely pointing out that the vote of 940 Iowans is hardly a measure of one’s national electability. There are more voters than that in practically every suburb in Cook County!

    Comment by Snidely Whiplash Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 1:08 am

  43. It wasn’t deleted. You posted it in another thread. Also, your 940 votes thing is so absurd and inaccurate that it should be deleted. Perhaps, as your other comment demonstrates, you need to learn how to use Google - or at least learn basic math. Since over 200,000 Dems caucused in Iowa, how could he win with just 940 votes?

    Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 1:29 am

  44. Sorry. Please, then point me to the real results. It’s now 1:50 a.m., and as of now, this link (and every other I can find) states 940 votes.

    Comment by Snidely Whiplash Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 1:54 am

  45. Well, the fabled Clinton machine has a heavy duty weekend ahead.

    I must say that I, being a member of the American besieged middle class, found Edwards’ speech to be the most compelling. I fear this will be his biggest win in this race though.

    If these results show a desire for change, wonder how a Mayor Bloomberg Independent candidacy would fare. If you want change, why not leave our special-interest-ridden and corrupt major political parties altogether and really vote “independent. Are the Democrats really going to change anything nationally. Look at the awful
    job Nancy, Harry and all the Congressional majority Dems have done this past year. Look at
    the awful state of governance in big-Dem-majority

    Comment by Cassandra Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 6:35 am

  46. And I’d like to take issue with Arthur Anderson’s
    description of former Secretary of State Albright
    as an “old bag.”

    One of the reaons I am conflicted about not supporting Hill/Bill is that in her career and her campaign she absolutely refutes our society’s widespread prejudice against older women, who are viewed as being ready for obsolescence at 50. As
    reflected in AA’s remark.

    Comment by Cassandra Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 6:46 am

  47. I was surprized on the slam for HRC in third. Despite the negatives, I still think she would be the Dems strongest candidate.

    I’m still sticking with Gore and Obama as the ticket, but if Obama keeps it up, it’s going to be interesting how Dems deal with the flip side of his greatest assest of youth; his lack of National experience.

    Pairing him with a VP to balance that will be interesting.

    But I still think Illinois’s long arm of sleaze will drag him… those dinners with Rezko are going to be tough to explain.

    Comment by Bill Baar Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 8:24 am

  48. For every Rezko associated with Obama, there is likely to be 5 Rezko-like characters associated with Hillary. You don’t raise $100 million in 12 months without knowingly being involved with someone you probably shouldn’t be involved with. The one Clinton bundler/supporter that was arrested is likely to be just the tip of the iceburg. The key will be whether the Obama camp decides to take that route or remain true to their solid game plan of focusing their message, not focusing on dirt.

    Comment by DC Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 8:55 am

  49. The Iowa Democrat vote is reported incorrectly by design, yeah Obama had a vote total under 1000, while Huckabee had a vote total of 30,000, but the Dems run their caucus in a very strange way and count the votes in a screwy manner.

    Comment by Crimefighter Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 8:59 am

  50. Bill – Last July I thought we would end up with Gore-Obama but since then Gore has made some business commitments that indicate he is not getting in the race ever. And there is no need for a consensus candidate on the Dem side. Supporters of any of the leading candidates can actually vote for the others.

    That’s not true on the Republican side. Supporters of Guiliani and Huckabee would never support the other, for example. They aren’t going to ‘agree to disagree’ on a long list of personal choice and lifestyle issues.

    I think Obama’s best VP partner is Bill Richardson, Mr. International Negotiator respected around the world. Richardson represents using diplomacy to solve conflicts, not the military.

    Comment by RBD Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 9:01 am

  51. For every Rezko associated with Obama, there is likely to be 5 Rezko-like characters associated with Hillary.

    I know. It’s just HRC’s been through the ringer multiple times and survived.

    Obama has yet to debate a conservative save Allen Keyes in his whole political life. (One reason we should have had debates mixing the candidates before now. I would have tuned in more.)

    Then the scrutiny Rezko’s trial will bring.

    Democrats taking a risk with him.

    Comment by Bill Baar Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 9:02 am

  52. You can put it on the board….YeSSSSSSSSSS!

    Comment by Bill Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 9:06 am

  53. Biden and Dodd should have stayed in the race at least until March 1. Only one state voted, and they don’t know the opinions of the other 49 states. All of the remaining candidates should continue campaigning until the conventions.

    Comment by PhilCollins Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 9:08 am

  54. Can you believe Ron Paul? 4th and he won 1 county (Jefferson in the southeast of the state). Anyone know how many of those new voters that came out to GOP caucus were Paul supporters? I’ve been amazed when I’ve been in Ft. Madison, IA (Lee County), where I have family, to see so many signs up for Paul and get phone calls from folks obviously not accustomed to political canvassing for Ron Paul.

    Comment by cermak_rd Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 9:08 am

  55. Crimey analysis of the vote - the Dems race is a tight three-way. Even if Hillary was third, she’s by no means out of it. Obama best not think he’s running away with the nomination yet. Edwards I can’t believe is in this still cause his campaign is based purely on sympathy. On the GOP side - I believe Huckabee is way overrated, he has NO DEFINING ISSUE that explains why he surged into a contender last month, meanwhile he seems to implode every time he makes a media appearance. Mitt Romney got to second, but has some catching up to do…and this looks like that’s gonna be who I’m gonna vote for after I did an elimination process. I’m surprised Thompson finished third and in double digits…he doesn’t seem to want it…and he edged out anti-first amendment candidate McCain. Ron Paul got to double digits, that may be enough to make the networks keep him in the debates.

    Comment by Crimefighter Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 9:15 am

  56. I listened to BO’s speech as well.

    Well delivered, heartfelt, but no substance. Perhaps that is his genius, saying nothing alienates no one.

    I did however note that he made health care affordable in Illinois. I must have missed that day. Does that mean that Gov. B dies not need to hijack money for healthcare anymore?

    I have to agree with Bill Baar. At some time the media will have to review his political career and reveal his close ties to the Chicago machine. That will make it difficult for him to be an agent of change while his whole political life come from one of the oldest machines in the US.

    Comment by plutocrat03 Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 9:16 am

  57. […] Interestingly, Iowa turnout was nearly double 2004 which on its face would make sense — only the Dems had a contest in 2004 whereas both parties have active nominations this year. But, the vast majority of those nearly 240,000 2008 caucusgoers came on the Dem side. Whether that’s an effect of the Republicans having essentially neglected the caucus (only Huck and Romney really put much time and money into the Hawkeye state) or a larger picture result of some sort of disgust with Republicans will only be determined in coming months. The nominal Republican winner, Mike Huckabee, came in dead last behind Obama, Edwards and Clinton when viewed altogether: it isn’t even close. Ouch. (And this is all the more surprising considering the GOP caucuses are far easier to attend and navigate — just show up at the alotted time and place and vote, then go home — than the much more arduous Dem caucus procedure — show up, speak about your opinions in front of the whole room, cluster into your preferred candidate’s group, tally the numbers, try to convince others to join you, do it again if necessary, etc….) […]

    Pingback by Friday Morning Quarterbacking « Illinois Reason Friday, Jan 4, 08 @ 9:43 am

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