Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Question of the day

Posted in:

Illinois

* Carol Marin lauds House GOP Leader Tom Cross and state Rep. Julie Hamos for their legislative work this year and concludes…

Someday, Cross may run for governor. Someday, Julie Hamos may be speaker of the House.

Both of them have earned a shot at those posts because, in the end, they served the people of Illinois more than they served themselves.

* Over at the Tribune, Mary Schmich sang Hamos’ praises…

If Chicago’s long mass transit soap opera has a hero, it’s Julie Hamos, a woman with a unique idea of fun.

“Believe it or not,” she said Friday, sitting in a Chicago cafe, “I find transit sexy.”

Hamos, the state legislator behind last week’s new transit law, calls herself a wonk. She likes her issues the way some people like martinis — dry. She reads policy reports as avidly as other women devour O magazine, though she does watch Oprah’s show some nights at 11.

* Question: Rate the likelihood that Tom Cross will one day be elected governor and Julie Hamos will be House speaker. Explain.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 8:55 am

Comments

It depends on whethe they survive another 10 year cycle of people tiring of the party in power on a statewide level. A lot will depend on whether the new D presidency succeeds or fails in the eyes of Illinoisians. Oh, and the Ill GOP must actually become an organized party again, of course.

Comment by Snidely Whiplash Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 9:03 am
i want to ask, have they met julie hamos??? she’s a bright legislator, maybe even a pit bull on the subject. but it’s hard to see her as a pit bull for the democrats in the house.

i eagerly await the race for (democratic) speaker, though…

Comment by bored now Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 9:07 am
Cross never. He lacks an understanding of the issues. He does not have the smarts, nor does he have the backbone to take on the tough issues.

Hamos is a possibility. However, Madigan may outlive Hamos! He has no plans of retiring, and has told me he enjoys the work and is looking forward to many more years of service!

Comment by MOON Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 9:14 am
Wasn’t Hamos one of the Dems who refused to support Poshard over George Ryan?

Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 9:27 am
Moon…please… Cross is the only rationale leader in Springfield right now. He’s also the only Republican with a chance to beat either Blago or Mike’s daughter in 10. He’s a consensus builder who carefully weighs issues and policy before grandstanding in front of the press. (which by the way, he handles quite well) Is the timing right for Cross in 2010? Is he better off to wait and allow the Dems to bury themselves while he establishs a record of fiscal resposibility?

Comment by Lance Stevens Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 9:28 am
LANCE

The question is “will he be elected”, not will he run for the office.

Comment by MOON Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 9:40 am
Hamos was mentioned as a possible Speaker in an earlier QOTD waaaay before the transit stuff started cooking.

It would be nice to see her in a formal leadership role and evaluate how she handles that. I think she’d do well there, but I am not sure being effective in leadership necessarily translates to being effective as the Speaker of the House.

Cross? I don’t see too many other R candidates. And, a Republican Governor with a good relationship with Democrats would be a good thing. Sooo unlike the current Governor’s relationship with Democrats.

Comment by Mongo Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 9:41 am
Moon - I generally agree with Lance on this one. You can say a lot of things about Cross, but dumb is not one of them. Very bright guy. You have obviously never met the man.

I will say this. In our media, media, media society, I’m not sure that Tom Cross will have much of a chance. While I really like the man, and unlike Moon, think that he is VERY bright, he does not come across as passionate or energetic on TV. It reminds me of the Jim Ryan/ Rod Blogojevich race a few years back. Blago had his hair, his smile and a populist message. Jim Ryan had facts and background on his side, but said everything in a fairly dry and stoic way.

Voters have proven over and over that they will pick a guy with a little bit of a plan, but great personality over professionalism and lack of personality. I think Cross would be great, but someone needs to take him aside and get him some communications coaching.

So, Rich, to answer your question, I don’t think Cross will be Governor. Unfortunately.

Comment by Trafficmatt Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 9:46 am
Cross has a good chance of being Governor IF the GOP can gain some momentum in the coming years (of course, this would be an epic reversal in trends). He has great leadership characteristics, brings people together on issues, and listens as well as anyone under the dome. If he runs, I would give him great odds at winning the primary. I like his sense of humor, too.
Hamos is not even close to being in the front of the pack for Speaker. She did great work on the transit bill, and delves into issues very deeply. However, she eminates an air of elitism, and would have a hard time garnering support from her caucus. When it comes down to cutting deals with members for their votes for her to be Speaker, she will fall short.

Comment by Unspun Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 9:48 am
Cross…likely.

Hamos….no. Thought she was being touted for
AG when Lisa runs for Govrnor.

Comment by amy Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 9:54 am
I don’t see how the Dems bury themselves over the next decade. Blago has an excellent chance of winning in 2010 but if the Dems decide it’s too risky to let him run (unlikely, if he wants to)
they have an attractive farm team-Lisa, Alexi, Dan, and probably others less-known.

If Cross runs, it’ll definitely be a quixotic
candidacy. He has quite a bit of power now, even as a Republican Actually, I think the Republicans are going to have trouble finding any serious candidate to run against Blago or any Dem in 2010.
Given the remote prospects of victory, it’s just not worth the huge expenditure of money,
time and energy.

Comment by Cassandra Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 9:55 am
If Cross can run away from his party and push himself as a nuts and bolts type guy who can fix the problems with state government, he might be able to win, like some of the old Cook County GOPers used to be able to, like Jack O’Malley.

Comment by cermak_rd Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 10:07 am
I’d vote for Cross,if his opponent was Governor A, but not under any other circumstances. It seems unlikely that the Republicans will nominate a moderate candidate for Governor in 2010. So I prredict that Cross will not be elected Governor

Although Democrats deserve to lose power in Springfield,as a result of the governmental debacle that egos and personalities and Governor A’s abysmal performance have created , I don’t see anyone on the Republican horizon who can defeat Lisa Madigan, if she turns out to be the next Democratic nominee for Governor.

The universal kudos that Julie Hamos has received are well-deserved. She will rise in House leadership, but I don’t see her as speaker. She’s a polcy person and a consensus- builder rather than a cut-throat political operative. I do see Hamos being elected to a higher elective office in the future. Hamos would be a logical successor to Jan Schakowsky, but I don’t think Jan will be leaving Congress for a long time.

Comment by Captain America Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 10:07 am
Cross: 50% — If he were to find himself on a ballot against Blago that would move to 120%. But any Republican I can stomach will have a tough time ever making it to the general without being fatally damaged.

– SCAM

Comment by so-called "Austin Mayor" Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 10:08 am
Trafficmatt: It was reported that Jim Ryan did take voice lessons during that campaign. So much for that…I don’t think anyone had a problem understanding him; he spoke with authority but people, including the media, just did not want to hear the truth. Now they are waking up.

But they won’t wake up to Tom Cross, regardless of his sanity. The real conservatives do not trust him on a number of critical issues and there will be a plethora of candidates on the Democratic side to attract whatever voters he/she will need to win.

Hamos, who knows? But, really, who says “transit is sexy?” It reminds me of the time Linda Lavin, as Alice, told Mel Sharples, as Mel, she thought Morley Safer was “sexy.”

Maybe because 60 Minutes was their lead-in that year.

Hmmmm.

Comment by Fun(d)-Raiser Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 10:08 am
Lance is exactly right. Cross is the only leader in Springfield with any common sense, but his pragmatic and diplomatic approach to the current mess he’s had to deal with is what’s made him shine. As a long time Dem I’m ashamed of the mockery that Rod, Madigan and other Dems have made of the system and I say it’s time for Tom to take full advantage. The reality is that Tom is telegenic, charismatic and will appeal to the voters on both sides. Like the national trends, people want a “leader” who is transformative, not just restorative, and thus the real conservatives will be marginalized. I for one will vote for him in 2010.

Comment by CROSSOVER Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 10:14 am
I have little doubt he would appeal to both sides, but could he make it out of a Republican primary when they mentality seems to be kill our own first.

Comment by leigh Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 10:21 am
On the Republican side in 2010 I expected it to be a battle between the moderate Cross and the conservative Bill Brady so this doesn’t surprise me. Not sure who emerges there though.

Hamos as Speaker is much tougher. To win that spot you have to win an election consisting of, and only of, legislators in your caucus. That may not be her strength.

Comment by Anon Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 10:23 am
If Lisa Madigan runs for gov. I bet Cross runs for A.G.

Comment by leigh Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 10:56 am
Cross has a very good shot of being governor. If Rod continues on his current path, the people of Illinois might decide to never ever elect a Democrat to the office again. However, the wingnuts of the Republican party may also ‘cut off their nose to spite their face’ and wreck Cross in order to run somebody unelectable like Oberweiss.

Can’t see Hamos as Speaker. She is neither calculating nor schmoozy enough.

Comment by Quizzical Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 10:56 am
trafficmatt.. I disagree about Cross and TV. Cross is great on TV. He comes across as reasonable and likable. His sense of humor makes him more likable. He’s the type of Republican the conservatives better grow to like, or we’ll always have a Dem governor.

Comment by Lance Stevens Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 11:02 am
If the Republicans continue to marginalize themselves, it won’t matter much. The right wing has never been able to do much in IL besides elect a few US congressman from the suburbs like Henry Hyde and Phil Crane. Peter Fitzgerald was a fluke whose opponent had Blago-like approval ratings. The days when Big Jim Thompson could trounce a D-machine candidate like Mike Howlett with 65% of the vote are long gone. Unless the ILGOP adopts a pragmatic Massachusetts strategy to deal with the political realities in this state and focus on winning races rather than purging its membership with litmus tests, it will be a long period of dominance for the D’s for statewide office. If the R’s can’t take advantage of the perfect storm of Blago’s tenure, it’s hard to see that they could accomplish anything here.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 11:15 am
.45: Good points. The Daniels thing is excellent historical background on where this guy is going.
And, gentle readers, I meant to say the late Vic Tayback played Mel Sharples. Devotion to Accuracy.

Comment by Fun(d)-Raiser Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 11:21 am
I don’t think Hamos could muster up downstate votes to become Speaker of the House.

Comment by anon Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 11:27 am
While I think Hamos is great as a policy wonk, I think the House dems political operation would go up in smoke if she became speaker. She does not understand what it takes to win in a targeted seat. But, my hat is off to her on tackling tough issues.

Comment by Stephen King's M-O-O-N Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 11:50 am
Actually Madigan was the only one who displayed common sense. Credit him for pushing Hamos’ bill.

Without his persistence the CTA/RTA would have been stuck with the one year, less than adequate subsidy afforded in the Jones gambling bill.

All Cross offered was a road block to help the gamblers or the siphoning the state sales tax money.
Either “Cross Plan” meant the RTA would be back ion SPI every year. Total disaster

Give Hamos credit for sticking with Madigan and getting the RTA reforms and funding package enacted. She has statewide future if she wants.

Cross is unlikely to get through a statewide primary —- remember the wingnuts don’t like stem cell research— and his close ties to the Blaggodiots too strong.

This is best example of how little Carol Marin knows about IL politics.

Now let’s see if the legislature has figured out they can put the bus in reverse run over Blaggpo again and pass a school funding plan that means something.

Comment by IncrediblyDumberThanYouThink Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 11:54 am
That scarlet letter “R” will block Cross’ advancement. As for Hamos, she is quite happy to use her new-found popularity to help out her husband (Judge Alan Greiman) in his race for the Appellate Court. On Saturday, Hamos and Greiman travelled across the county and her presenece with him certainly bolstered his candidacy in the upcoming Feb. 5 Primary.

Comment by fedup dem Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 12:27 pm
Cross for AG, possibly. He’s better suited for that, a lawyer, former prosecuter ect. ….not a governor. His HRO is any indication of his political strenghth beyond his safe district…no way at all. They miss the boat in many ways.

Hamos ??….good as any for speaker, but can she have the grasp over the members and party like Madigan ???

Comment by annon Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 12:29 pm
I think the 10-year self term limit as Republican Leader is a very good point. Would Cross simply fade back into the House as a rank and file member? If the answer to that is “no”, he has to go somewhere.

Comment by N'ville Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 12:32 pm
Hamos, not a bad choice….but no one will have the grasp and control of the caucus like Madigan. Power and control…now that’s what Madigan finds sexy. As for Cross, he’ll never get by the radical right.

Comment by downhereforyears Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 12:50 pm
I don’t know about Cross or Hamos. I’ll give her credit for the transit legislation and if Cross can gain more GOP members in the house perhaps I might consider him a big more influential. And perhaps Hamos might need more than being successful in the transit bailout. Then again how long has it been since I’ve been able to follow the state political scene. It hasn’t been that long. Right now I’d rate them both as average no where near above average or even exceptional!

Comment by Levois Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 12:57 pm
Cross is a good guy but he shot himself in the foot by placing Chris Lauzen’s Senate Bill #600 into a coat closet down in Springfield. When Cross handed SB # 600 to Skippy to “die a natural death”, the conservative members of the Illinois GOP knew that Cross threw the senate bill into the garbage disposal. And, conservatives will never forget nor forgive Tom Cross for doing that to them. Bill Brady has been chosen to be the next GOP candidate for governor of Illinois. Bill is considered “bland” but “acceptable to all factions” of the GOP.

Comment by Pickles Persimmon Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 1:14 pm
Brady can’t win. Of that I am pretty darn sure.

Comment by leigh Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 1:21 pm
Hamos may be a policy wonk, but Illinois politics is not about policy, it is about getting elected, and that is something that the current Speaker can get his membership. that’s why he is still Speaker. I don’t believe that a majority membership in either party wants, would want, a policy person gaveling the sessions. Unless that policy was making sure the majority maintains the majority.

Cross for Governor? He is as likely as any other moderate Republican.

Comment by anon Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 1:27 pm
Cross could easily get the Republican nomination, but he couldn’t defeat Giannoulias, Madigan (Lisa) or even Hynes. But he would certainly run a tough race. Julie Hamos would be great as Illinois House Speaker and would definitely be an upgrade.

Comment by Reading on Walden Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 1:38 pm
Oh, by the way, my assumption is that either Rod Blagojevich will not run in 2010 (if he has any sense and he has none) or he will be roundly defeated by one of the three (Giannoulias, Madigan (Lisa) or Hynes.

Comment by Reading on Walden Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 1:43 pm
The likelihood of Cross getting NOMINATED for Governor is slim. He’s pro-choice, supports stem cell research, voted in favor of hypodermic needle distribution to drug addicts, and led a push to dramatically restrict the death penalty that was widely opposed by GOP state’s attorneys across Illinois.

I agree with those public policy decisions (not the way Cross sidestepped gay rights), but they seem to be out-of-touch with Illinois’ ever-shrinking Republican primary electorate.

Opponents would nail him to the Cross for his perennial endorsement by PersonalPAC.

If Cross were to Cross-over and run as a Democrat or an independent, he might have a shot. But that ain’t happening.

Hamos, I think, has different ambitions. I like Hamos, and see her as Barbara Flynn Currie’s heir and obvious choice for a Leadership post, but don’t think she’ll ever be elected Speaker.

She’s not a ferocious campaigner, which you need to be to hold onto a majority, nor is she a ferocious fundraiser or partisan. In the north suburbs, that edge definitely goes to Lou Lang.

However, she would make a very strong candidate for countywide office in Cook. She could have easily run an identical campaign to Lisa Madigan’s for Cook County State’s Attorney as “the people’s lawyer” and beat the current field.

She would make a good choice as part of a unified slate for statewide office down the road, perhaps for Attorney General.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 1:57 pm
Tom Cross has no chance because his party is dysfunctional.

The republicans in this state are disorganized and pathetic.

They have to rebuild and become a political party again. Take for example who the party has put up as their savior against Melissa Bean in the 8th congressional district. Their candidate (Steve Greenberg) is as bad as their selection of Alan Keys. No experience, no education. His platform is that I once was almost a hockey player……. Not the slightest chance of winning, unless Melissa quits on her own.

From the party’s behavior this election, it appears not to have hit rock bottom yet. It will come soon. 2012 is the earliest chance to start building power for the Republicans.

Comment by plutocrat03 Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 2:44 pm
Plutocrato3 what state do you live in? You think Illinois Republicans are dysfunctional. Have you paid any attention to what has been going on in Springfield for the past few years?
The Democrats who control this state are so dysfunctional that Tom Cross had to step up and play mediator to get a budget passed and to keep progress moving forward on mass transit. While Blago, Madigan and Jones are squabbling like three year olds - Tom Cross has emerged as a true statesman. If he runs…he’s got my vote!

Comment by TomforGov Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 3:12 pm
If Tom runs, most will assume he is a Blaggo plant. Tom lost crediblity when he let Blaggo leave his pork projects in the budget.
His mass transit contribution was to stall for six months and then propose a bill that so bad that he DID NOT vote for it.
He did push to get something for the gamblers, but zip happened there.
Whiz Kid? Keep Dreaming.
Q.BTW can anyone tell me how many GOP pork projects have been released?
A. NONE.

Comment by GettingJonesed Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 4:07 pm
After continuing review, this Tribune article, for what it’s worth, may be Hamos’ high point. Fritchey will more than likely be the Democratic nominee in for Atty. Gen. in ‘10, and will probably win that race.

Hamos will not be Speaker, either.

Comment by Fun(d)-Raiser Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 4:35 pm
Plutocrato3 what state do you live in? You think Illinois Republicans are dysfunctional. Have you paid any attention to what has been going on in Springfield for the past few years?

That the Republicans can’t take advantage of a situation as dysfunctional as the IL Democrats only reinforces how REALLY dysfunctional the IL R’s are.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 4:53 pm
BTW, let me just point out the hypocrisy of Marin praising Cross for helping to pass a bill that HE VOTED AGAINST.

That’s not leadership in my book, and hardly worthy of praise.

If Cross had stood up and said “I’m a Republican, but I support this tax increase, because I think its the right thing for Illinois’ economy,” he’d deserve praise.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 5:43 pm
Cross is one of the smarter, politically savvy Republicans in this state (yea, I know, it’s a low bar), so I would expect him to run at some point.

Hamos, ummm, no, I don’t think so. I like her. She’s a bright and capable legislator. But top leadership - can’t possibly see it. There are at least ten legislators I can see ahead of her for that.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 6:16 pm
YDD–that’s about the most flawed logic I’ve seen on this board in awhile. How does a sales tax increase improve Illinois’ economy?

Comment by Hold Up Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 6:30 pm
Tomforgov

I do live in Illinois and can give you page after page cataloging the dysfunctionality of the Illinois Republicans. There are competent elected individuals, but the party mechanism is broken.

I made no comment on the functionality of the Democratic Party. That would be for another thread.

As far as I can tell, Mr. Cross is an able, affable and competent guy. However the Republican Party has no ability to run a campaign. The example of who they selected for the 8th district is an example of their judgement. There are no positives other than he is a trust fund baby,

Comment by plutocrat03 Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 6:42 pm
Tom is a negotiator, maybe a problem solver, I only say maybe because I am not sure of his motives since he is the minority leader and part of his job is to try to get more GOP seats in the House. As far as I know he can be trusted when he gives his word or commits to something, rare traits today. Speaker Madigan doesn’t often agree with his positions but he does respect and trust him. IMO best GOP candidate for any high office in Illinois.

Julie is a hard working legislator who is very passionate about the issues she involves herself with. Very progressive, honest, and dedicated to her causes. Good representative for her district. Not sure with her political views she will ever become Speaker. I personally respect her but not sure about whether enough of her peers feel the same way.

Comment by aidanquinn Monday, Jan 21, 08 @ 10:55 pm
Believe it or not, I find Julie Hamos sexy.

I rode the buses & trains this week.

THANKS, JULIE!

Comment by Hugh Wednesday, Jan 23, 08 @ 1:39 pm

Add a comment

Sorry, comments are closed at this time.

Last 10 posts:

Reader comments closed for the weekend (04-26)
Isabel’s afternoon briefing (04-26)
Things that make you go 'Hmm' (04-26)
Did Dan Proft’s independent expenditure PAC illegally coordinate with Bailey's campaign? The case will go before the Illinois Elections Board next week (04-26)
PJM's massive fail (04-26)
$117.7B In Economic Activity: Illinois Hospitals Are Essential To Communities And Families (04-26)
It’s just a bill (04-26)
Showcasing The Retailers Who Make Illinois Work (04-26)
Open thread (04-26)
Isabel’s morning briefing (04-26)