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* Former Gov. Jim Edgar admits the obvious: The Republicans are in big trouble in Jerry Weller’s district…
…Edgar is less confident about the race to replace Weller. The Democratic Party’s chances in that district improved when the Republican nominee dropped out of the race and a new candidate has not yet been slated to take on well-known Democratic state Sen. Debbie Halvorson and Green Party newcomer Jason Wallace.
“You’ve got to be even more nervous about that,” Edgar said.
As I told subscribers this week, Halvorson continues to raise money at an impressive pace while the Republicans can’t find a candidate and probably won’t settle on one for several weeks.
* That story also has some interesting demographic numbers for Congressman Bill Foster’s district, which was previously held by Republican Denny Hastert…
In 1990, the district had about 571,000 people, compared to an estimated population of more than 770,000 in 2005, according to The “Almanac of American Politics.”
The district also became more Hispanic, according to the Almanac. For example, in Kane County, the district’s largest voting bloc, the Hispanic or Latino population grew from about 96,000 people in 2000 to more than 137,000 in 2006, according to Census data.
* Edgar said he didn’t think these Dem trends meant that another GOP congressman was endangered: “I don’t think anybody should say this means Mark Kirk is in big trouble.”
But the national Dems have now put Kirk’s opponent Dan Seals on their “Red to Blue” list. That means Seals is one of just 13 Dem candidates who will be targeted with cash and other resources…
In 2004, the Red to Blue program raised nearly $7.5 million for twenty seven campaigns across the country with an average of more than $250,000 per campaign. In 2006, the Red to Blue program raised nearly $22.6 million for 56 campaigns with an average of $404,000 per campaign.
This is a 2008 Illinois congressional campaign open thread.
*** UPDATE *** We missed this one earlier today. The NRCC spent well over a million dollars on Oberweis in the special election but is not expected to help Oberweis this fall…
The Republican Party’s congressional war chest, which flooded the suburbs with mailers and TV ads on behalf of Jim Oberweis this month, may back out of the coming rematch with Bill Foster.
Oberweis spokesman Bill Pascoe said Thursday it seems “highly unlikely” the National Republican Congressional Committee will chip in for the general election.
An NRCC spokeswoman declined to say whether the woefully underfunded organization will help Oberweis financially. But she said they still hope he wins the seat once held by veteran House Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert.
Under the bus.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 10:25 am
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It sure looks like Debbie Halvorson is going to coast to victory in a Republican district. That is another chapter in her fortunate political career. Let’s not forget that she ousted Aldo DeAngelis strictly because she was in the “Punch 10″ election where dems pounded the repubs. This latest bit of luck is even more unpredictable, but it looks like she’s a winner again.
As for Dan Seals, that’s a much tougher district and Mark Kirk has an uncanny ability to make himself look more sensible and liberal than he actually is. He’s a right wing Bush lover, but he works the media like a champ. He’ll be tough to beat, no matter how much money the dems throw into the race.
Comment by chiatty Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 10:30 am
===Let’s not forget that she ousted Aldo DeAngelis strictly because she was in the “Punch 10″ election===
Actually, there was more to it than that. Changing district was a huge factor as was the campaigns run by both candidates. Aldo no longer fit the district. She did, and she did a good job of making that known.
The House Dems took back their chamber in 1996. The Senate came up short. Remember that as well.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 10:35 am
Kirk strikes me as Main Street Republican. Representing that district while trying to maintain any pull in the House Republican Caucus and the Bush Administration is a pretty tough row to hoe.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 10:45 am
OMG…. looks like squeaky clean Blink Jim Edgar m,ust have met TR too….hmmm
(1) | read | post SPRINGFIELD — Antoin “Tony” Rezko, accused of trying to manipulate the Illinois Health Facilities Planning Board for a $1 million bribe, was appointed to the board in 1998 but never served, The Associated Press has learned.
Rezko was nominated to serve on the regulatory panel by then-Gov. Jim Edgar in November 1998, according to state records reviewed by the AP.
But the Senate, which must consent to such gubernatorial appointees, rejected Rezko and more than 100 other appointees to boards and commissions because majority Republicans wanted George Ryan, who would become governor just a month later, to make his own appointments.
Joseph Duffy, who is representing Rezko in federal court in Chicago, suggested outside of court that the rejection was no great loss to Rezko.
“He just didn’t know anything about health care,” Duffy said Thursday.
Comment by Dumber Than You Think Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 11:41 am
The GOP appears to be in some really serious trouble here in Illinois.
If I was the NRCC and trying to decide which races to put money into, I’d look at the situation as it sits, and would see the following.
1.) Il-10 Dan Seals is again going to put in a well financed challenge to Mark Kirk.
2.) We still have Il-08 which is a GOP leaning district with a Dem Congresswoman.
3.) We currently have no candidate in Il-11, and barring some sore of recruiting coup, we probably will not have a top tier candidate come November. Does the NRCC really want to finance somebody from scratch on this one?
4.) We have lost Il-14 and are going into November with the same poor candidate that we had.
Now looking at those 4 scenarios, if I was the NRCC and had a limited amount of money to spend on races. (The state GOP is going to have zilch, nada, nothing) then I would put my money into the rae that would provide the best chance of a return. That would be defending Mark Kirk.
If this does play out and the NRCC only finances Kirk, then you can right off 8,11 and allow the SS Oberweis to again hit an iceberg and sink. It looks like Obie has already been cut loose and needs to finance himself. 11 is gone and I do not see them recapturing 8.
A net loss for the GOP of 2 districts in Il in 2008.
Ouch!!!
train111
Comment by train111 Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 11:46 am
the NRCC should concentrate on Kirk. Wait till next election cycle for a shot at Debbie.
No opponent for Phil Hare?
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 11:50 am
Dem IL-6 candidate Jill Morgenthaler’s website hasn’t been updated since October. What’s up with that? Is there anyone working for her?
Comment by Blue in 60137 Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 11:52 am
And all this could have been avoided if Hastert had swallowed hard, and gotten behind Lauzen.
At least the IL-14 part
Comment by Pat Collins Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 11:58 am
Rep. Kirk isn’t right-wing. He’s more liberal than many Democrats.
I live in his district, so I researched his voting record. He frequently votes for unconstitutional pork-barrel spending, including millions of dollars for Metra, local schools, and police depts., although those subjects aren’t mentioned in the Constitution. His latest rating from Planned Parenthood is 100%, and his latest rating from Gun Owners of America is 0%. In 2007, the Chicago Minuteman Project issued a press release and said that they “denounced Rep. Kirk.” In 2004, he voted against a bill that would have required hospital employees to notify immigration officials when they treat illegal aliens. He’s against the Iraq surge. He voted against a bill that would have banned gay marriage.
I’ve never voted for Kirk. I leave that section of the ballot blank, since he’s at least as liberal as all of the Democrats he defeated.
Comment by PhilCollins Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 12:53 pm
===although those subjects aren’t mentioned in the Constitution.===
Please.
===The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises, to pay the debts and provide for the common defense and general welfare of the United States===
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 12:57 pm
I see the NRCC not chipping into Oberweis’ November campaign as obeying the ‘law of diminishing returns’ moreso than throwing him under a bus. It is well known that the organization is cash strapped. Oberweis just falls lower in priority than he did in March.
That said, the same article quoted above stated that he is willing to put another 2.5 million more of his own money into the race.
I wish I had a spare @.5 mil that I could blow running for political office.
train111
Comment by train111 Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 1:14 pm
Please what, Rich? The 10th Amendment of the Constitution states that all powers that aren’t reserved for the federal government are reserved for the states. I read every word of the Constitution, and I didn’t see the words “train,” “education,” or “police.” Therefore, federal involvement, in those subjects, is unconstitutional. Almost all of the congressmen want to violate the Constitution, to help them buy votes.
Comment by PhilCollins Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 1:29 pm
“general welfare” covers that.
If you think all those laws are unconstitutional, sue. Take it to the US Supreme Court. You’ll lose.
Now, move along.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 1:31 pm
PhilCollins keep in mind the constitution does give the Fed Govt the authority to tax and spend. This includes the ability to put requirments on the receipt of money. States can often decide not to be bound by certain federal laws, they just have to agree not to accept federal funds.
Also the 14th Amendment gives the feds very broad authority as well.
Comment by Ghost Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 2:05 pm
Illinois Republicans “ask not for whom the polls toll, they toll for thee.” If Obama is the Democratic Presidential nominee, I think Mark Kirk’s seat is in serious jeopardy.
Similarly,moderate Republican State Rep Beth Coulson will be upset by newcomer Daniel Biss, but only if Obama is the nominee.I think Illinois Republicans should jump aboard the Rush Limbaugh bandwagon and support Hillary Clinton in the interests of political survival.
Comment by Captain America Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 2:09 pm
Captain America makes a good point.
With Obama on the top of the ticket, I think Democrats defeat Kirk AND Schock.
This has even bigger ramifications down the road. The current Congressional map is an incumbent protection plan cooked up by Hastert and Lipinski. Democrats can redraw that map in 2010 to put the 15th, 19th, and possibly even the 16th in play.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 2:22 pm
Phil Collins and his pals in Lake County are the primary reason why Democrats have been gaining ground at the expense of Republicans. The average voter, after hearing their extremist views, turns away.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Friday, Mar 14, 08 @ 3:56 pm