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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
I was looking for something else recently on Scott Kennedy’s Illinois Election Data website and noticed he had voter turnout numbers from statewide races since 1990.
We all know that Downstate has lost a significant amount of its political importance, but the numbers really help illustrate this decline.
In 1990, 42% of the total vote for governor came from Downstate counties, while a mere 17% came from the suburban collar counties outside Cook.
By 2018, just 36% of the total vote for governor came from Downstate and 25% was from the collars. When you expand the definition of the collar counties to include some in the Chicago metro region that had previously been considered more rural, the Downstate figure drops to 31% and the share of the collar county vote rises to 29%.
I happened to be talking with former Gov. Jim Edgar about something else shortly after seeing those numbers, and when I brought it up he said in those days, Republicans would figure on being stomped in the city, but they’d win Cook and the collar county suburbs and then the margin Downstate would wind up being pretty close to the statewide spread.
In Edgar’s first gubernatorial election in 1990, that’s just what happened. He lost Chicago by 33 points, won suburban Cook by 18, won the collars by 27 and took Downstate by 3, winning overall that year by just under 3 percentage points.
Edgar focused intently on the suburbs, campaigning on a promise to cap local property taxes and highlighting his strong support of abortion rights, among other things the voters in that region cared about.
By 2018, Chicago and suburban Cook County made up almost the same percentage share of the total vote for governor as in 1990, declining only by about a percentage point. The difference, though, is the Cook County suburbs are now firmly in Democratic control. Edgar won them by 18 points back in the day, but J.B. Pritzker won them by 29 points in 2018. That’s a 47-point swing.
The collars have leaned Democratic during presidential years since Barack Obama’s national bid in 2008 and gradually started trending more Democratic in off-year races, culminating in Pritzker’s three-point collar county win over Bruce Rauner in 2018 and historic county-wide Democratic wins in the region both that year and in 2020.
Downstate has become much more reliable for Republicans. No statewide Democrat except Secretary of State Jesse White has won the region for the past 10 years. Obama won it in 2008 by four points but lost Downstate four years later by seven, an 11-point flip. Pritzker lost it by 10 points four years ago.
But the increase in Republican identification in the region has not been enough to make up for its falling vote share and the party’s more recent disadvantages in the suburbs. Pat Quinn lost Downstate by 24 points in 2010 and still managed to eke out a narrow victory, after all.
Partisan red meat works well in Downstate, and Republican gubernatorial candidate state Sen. Darren Bailey will likely run up his numbers there, but it definitely doesn’t work in the suburbs.
Bailey has spent much of his campaign ignoring this basic Illinois electoral math and crafting an under-funded message that, if anything, almost appears to be designed to turn away those collar county voters. It’s impossible to win statewide by running up the score in a region that contains barely more than a third of the vote while turning off, and even firing up opposition in, the rest of the state.
Bailey’s recent “kitchen table” policy proposal is to require the University of Illinois’ flagship campus in Urbana-Champaign to guarantee 90% of its enrollment is made up of Illinois residents.
Other states have similar requirements mainly because of pressure from parents, and many of those folks live in the suburbs.
When Bruce Rauner was governor and universities struggled without a state budget, UIUC and other campuses were left to their own devices. The fiscal situation was only marginally better under Pat Quinn. Rauner took a fiscal crisis and turned it into a calamity.
State finances are better now, so perhaps it is time to start discussing the use of large numbers of international students to subsidize tuition for everyone else.
But, on the politics side, Bailey is gonna need infinitely more than this to overcome his geographical and ideological deficits.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 9:12 am
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The only question that should be posed to Darren Bailey right now - If he loses, will he concede the election?
Serious question. Anecdotally, I know many Bailey supporters who think the only way he loses is if there is fraud.
Comment by CubsFan16 Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 9:31 am
But he’s praying and the police like him.
The most interesting question to me is if the IL GOP will regroup after this disaster and try to come up with a strategy that might work in Illinois–think Charlie Baker type candidates or if the prion disease is just too far progressed and they are going for super super minority status.
I don’t think it will matter if Bailey concedes. The likely outcome will be clear enough he’ll just be a joke if he tries the fraud routine. He might get some people paying attention in the Eastern Bloc, but so what?
Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 9:35 am
=I know many Bailey supporters who think the only way he loses is if there is fraud.=
They need to go back and take a 2nd grade math class. It is that simple.
Unfortunately, this is the new GOP tactic to sow chaos and delegitimize elections they lose. Funny how there is never a fraud discussion when they win.
Bailey’s election strategy is not so baffling if he is a true believer and is compelled to run on what he believes in. I wonder what his takeaway will be when he gets trounced?
Comment by JS Mill Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 9:37 am
It’s a challenge the way Republican trend lines look bad in suburbs & a candidate’s need to separate from national trends, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bailey outperform Edgar in the Metro East. If Bailey had a good message for the suburbs, his chance of being the nominee would be lower.
Comment by Blake Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 9:43 am
but, but counties….
Comment by Amalia Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 9:50 am
==think Charlie Baker type candidates ==
Hope so, but it’s not that easy. Look at MAGOP- they couldn’t find a second Charlie Baker type candidate this year.
Comment by Arsenal Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 10:05 am
“I wonder what his takeaway will be when he gets trounced?”
He’ll go back to Xenia convinced he was an honest man in an unholy land. Then do a ego gratifying Facebook Live event with his base.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 10:09 am
There are a lot of religious Democrats, especially among minorities and long-term, painting conservatives as more religious do the Democrats no favor even as I see comments from the left several times this campaign engaging in such painting.
Comment by Blake Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 10:23 am
Blake - Not sure where you are getting your facts. I think this is probably just your misguided opinion. Below is an article showing people are becoming less religious and it hit a new low in 2021. Of course there is always that whole separation of church and state thing - which makes even religious folks a little uneasy when you say you plan to govern with your religious beliefs and ignore theirs.
https://www.npr.org/2021/03/30/982671783/fewer-than-half-of-u-s-adults-belong-to-a-religious-congregation-new-poll-shows
Comment by One Trick Pony Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 10:36 am
Times change. States change. Illinois isn’t the same place it was 20 years ago. Taxes are higher and Illinois is surrounded by right to work states. Not a great deck to compete with when attempting to attract or keep certain industries.
Comment by Steve Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 10:51 am
“I wonder what his takeaway will be when he gets trounced?”
Friends…We blame Satan.
Comment by Dotnonymous Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 10:54 am
If all else fails Darren may have to resort to serving free Mountain Dew at his rallies.
Comment by MoralMinority Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 10:55 am
“It’s impossible to win statewide by running up the score in a region that contains barely more than a third of the vote while turning off, and even firing up opposition in, the rest of the state.”
This is beetle’s campaign strategy in a nut shell. Along with claiming election fraud when he loses by a landslide.
Comment by Huh? Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 11:02 am
The Illinois GOP was doomed from day one when the geniuses behind Irvin talked Griffin into backing him. That opened the door for Bailey and Proft to seize a golden opportunity to create havoc on the GOP. Bailey gets to be the candidate because of downstate numbers and Proft makes a boat load of money so he can enjoy Naples for another few years.
The whole GOP leadership needs to be replaced starting with Tracey and all the County Chairman. The biggest fraud out of the whole group is Morrison who single handily has destroyed what little there ever was of a Cook County GOP.
Comment by Old time Independent Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 11:05 am
=== Times change. States change. Illinois isn’t the same place it was 20 years ago. Taxes are higher and Illinois is surrounded by right to work states. Not a great deck to compete with when attempting to attract or keep certain industries.===
Which certain industries? In general the companies keep coming here.
https://quadcitiesbusiness.com/illinois-3rd-chicago-tops-in-corporate-expansion-relocation/
Comment by Da big bad wolf Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 11:09 am
=Not a great deck to compete with when attempting to attract or keep certain industries.=
Like EV industries or tech? Trying to hold on to coal jobs isn’t the future.
Comment by JS Mill Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 11:17 am
=Taxes are higher and Illinois is surrounded by right to work states.=
A tired trope that we need to race to the bottom. You think Indianapolis or St. Louis wouldn’t want Google in their cities? Do you think young grads want to live in cities where their rights may not be protected in the future? There’s more to a state’s economy than non-unionized factory work.
Comment by Pundent Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 11:24 am
If Bailey has a path, I will be in complete shock. Mayor Irvin did have a path that Team Gubernatorial Candidate did not take. They did JB a solid on that one.
Comment by levivotedforjudy Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 11:31 am
==If Bailey has a path, I will be in complete shock.==
He definitely has a path- it’s Midterm Penalty for the Party Holding the White House + Crime + Inflation.
The problem is all of those metrics seem to be moving in the wrong direction for him. But one of them is based a lot more on emotions than facts, and who knows what’ll happen tomorrow.
Comment by Arsenal Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 11:46 am
“If Bailey has a path”
Beetle has a path. It doesn’t to lead to a governors mansion door through which he can enter any time he wishes.
Comment by Huh? Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 12:15 pm
We went from pro-union Thompson, Edgar and Ryan to radical anti-union Rauner and MAGA candidate Bailey. There isn’t a place for those types of moderates in the ILGOP anymore.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 12:36 pm
Grandson - if you look at the experience of Thompson, Edgar, and Ryan prior to winning the governor’s office, they all served in had public office.
Edgar and Ryan were Secretary of State. Thompson wad a States Attorney and US Attorney. These people knew the value of serving the public.
Ruiner didn’t have that mentality or experience. Beetle hasn’t been able to flex his tenure as a school board member. For these people, running for governor is an ego trip.
Comment by Huh? Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 12:51 pm
What public office did JB Pritzker serve in?
No ego trip there,
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 1:44 pm
===What public office did JB Pritzker serve in?
No ego trip there===
Something-something, Rauner, something.
Both Rauner and Pritzker won, by the way.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 1:52 pm
= There isn’t a place for those types of moderates in the ILGOP anymore. =
I think you could replace “ILGOP” with “GOP” at this point.
Comment by cover Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 1:55 pm
As we discussed extensively in the last couple of weeks, the U of I thing will resonate, but only with a small subset of suburban families with teenagers looking to go there. That’s a sliver of the voters.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 1:56 pm
==What public office did JB Pritzker serve in? ==
Chair of the Human Rights Commission.
Comment by Arsenal Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 3:05 pm
It’s so funny that LP’s only contribution here is “OMG someone was TOO MEAN to Bruce Rauner”.
Comment by Arsenal Monday, Sep 12, 22 @ 3:08 pm
People have been talking more about the election at PTO-type events the last few weeks, and so far every single time I’ve talked to another parent, they have said, “Who?” when I said “Darren Bailey.” And about 50% of the time when I’ve clarified, “The GOP candidate for governor,” they’ve said, “Oh yeah, that guy who thought the Highland Park shooting wasn’t important.” (or, frequently, much worse versions of his post-HP-shooting messaging that they absorbed from social media outrage about it, often with quite rude words attached that will trip Rich’s filters.)
These aren’t non-voters; these are people who know their county board members and statehouse rep. They just have not even registered Darren Bailey as a real candidate. They don’t even know his name.
Comment by Suburban Mom Wednesday, Sep 14, 22 @ 2:52 pm