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* Yet another poll shows Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson with a big lead over Martin Ozinga in the 11th Congressional District. This time, it’s from Roll Call…
In the poll, Halvorson, whom Republicans have worked overtime in recent months trying to link with Land of Lincoln’s scandal-plagued Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), was ahead of Ozinga, 50 percent to 37 percent. Green Party candidate Jason Wallace took 9 percent of the vote.
That’s the third poll in the past few days which shows Halvorson around 50 percent.
According to the poll, taken by SurveyUSA, Ozinga’s unfavorables outnumbers his favorables 37-29. The reverse was true for the Democrat Halvorson, 41-27. That’s still kinda high, and it reflects the negative advertising. Halvorson’s attacks appear to be working so far.
* These are also telling numbers…
Halvorson also polled better with self- described members of the opponent’s party. In the survey, Ozinga picked up 77 percent of GOP vote, 5 percent from Democrats and 30 percent of independents. Halvorson took 89 percent of the Democratic vote, 13 percent from Republicans and 44 percent from independents.
The third-party candidate also appears to be helping Halvorson, siphoning off more votes from registered Republicans than registered Democrats in the poll, as well as 20 percent of the vote from self-described independents.
Obama is leading 49-44 in a district President Bush won with 53 percent four years ago. Ozinga is simply under-performing.
* Ozinga appears on a congressional Republican “death list” of candidates who have little chance of winning. From US News & World Report’s political blog..
A document provided to Washington Whispers from a House GOP official shows that they could lose a net 34 seats. That means the Democrats would have a 270-165 advantage in the 111th Congress. In the Senate, Republicans expect to lose also but to keep up to 44 seats, ensuring their ability to stage a filibuster.
The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a “death list.” The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. “Rating 1″ finds 10 Republicans “likely gone.”
Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8.
Oof.
* And Halvorson is getting a big boost in this south suburban, exurban and rural district from the NRA…
Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson, running for Congress in a Republican-leaning south suburban district, is shooting for support from gun owners.
Halvorson plans to announce an endorsement today from the National Rifle Association.
“When her party leaders pressed an anti-gun agenda, Halvorson pushed back,” Halvorson quotes the NRA saying in a news release.
* PI has posted Halvorson’s latest TV ad, which bashes both Ozinga and Rod Blagojevich…
* Meanwhile… Oops…
A Democratic state representative from Chicago who appears in a television ad for Republican state Rep. AARON SCHOCK’s congressional campaign says she didn’t think her actions would tip the balance in a central Illinois district she believes is “very Republican.”
“I honestly thought I would not get a phone call on this because who the heck knows who I am in Peoria?” said Rep. SUSANA MENDOZA, who in addition to being a House member, works for the city of Chicago as project coordinator with the department of planning and development.
She also didn’t know something that is becoming more apparent — that U.S. Sen. DICK DURBIN of Springfield is making a strong effort for the Democratic candidate in that race, COLLEEN CALLAHAN of Kickapoo.
Durbin probably ain’t a happy camper right now.
* Neither is Ray LaHood…
Republican Aaron Schock Wednesday sought to defend himself against Democrat Colleen Callahan’s new TV ad, which criticizes him over backdating documents as a notary.
The spot is meant to hit Schock on reports that he signed off on documents that had inaccurate dates for his father. In the spot, Callahan praises two Republicans who have occupied the 18th Congressional District seat she wants, former U.S. Rep. Bob Michel and current U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood, a Republican who is retiring at the end of his term.
LaHood clarified Wednesday that he’s supporting Schock. LaHood said Callahan shouldn’t have used his name in the ad and argued it should be taken off airwaves.
*** UPDATE *** [posted by Kevin Fanning] It looks like the DCCC is now playing hot potato with the aforementioned Halvorson ad:
The DCCC’s spokesman did not respond to questions about who signed off on the ad and why it targets Mr. Blagojevich — who, according to a poll in Thursday’s Chicago Tribune, has an approval rating in the state of just 13%, even lower than President George W. Bush.
Eric Adelstein, the media consultant for the Democratic candidate in the race, state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, stressed that the DCCC buy was an “independent expenditure” in which the Halvorson campaign had no input.
Congressman Rahm Emmanuel adds his two cents…
U.S. Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Chicago, who once headed the DCCC and unofficially shepherds Illinois congressional races, said he, too, was not involved in developing the ad or deciding to run it. But like Mr. Adelstein, he said he likes the spot because it “levels the playing field a little bit.”
* The Governor’s office had no official comment, but there was this little tid bit at the end of the story…
Mr. Blagojevich, himself a former congressman, is said to have “gone ballistic” when he first heard of the spot.
And the beat goes on…
*** UPDATE *** [posted by Kevin Fanning] A commenter just pointed out the following:
Josh Kalven - Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 4:22 pm:
Blagojevich is responding to a different ad — not the one produced by the Halvorson campaign, which we posted and you embedded above.
Blagojevich is upset about the recent anti-Ozinga spot from the DCCC, which is much harder on him.
Josh is correct. Thanks for spotting it. Here is the other video mentioned in the Crain’s article:
* Related…
* Central Illinois sees big jump in voter signup
* Biggert fends off criticism she’s too close to Bush
* Billboards challenge Bean on global warming
* Oberweis and Foster Do Battle Again for Congress
* 14th District rematch toned down
* Kirk, Seals square off in debate
* Roskam, Morgenthaler face off in election
* Roskam maintains financial lead over Morgenthaler
* For U.S. Senate, U.S. House 9th and 13th districts
* ‘Blame game’ at center of 13th District battle
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 10:43 am
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Halvorson’s running ahead of Obama? Does that seem right?
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 10:47 am
A Dem hack who works for the City of Chicago is clueless about other parts of the state? I’m shocked! Shocked!
LaHood has a right to complain. And Callahan has a right to run the ad.
Callahan didn’t make it seem like an endorsement. If she wants to make the point that Michel and LaHood had a certain amount of bi-partisan cred and Kid Nuke is a movement conservative, how’s she supposed to make the point without using LaHood’s name?
If LaHood is really PO’d he can cut an ad for the bogus notary.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 11:07 am
Ozinga sold himself as a business leader, which he is. As the Market melted down, so did his poll numbers. This has given the edge to Emil’s political buddy, Debbie Halvorson.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 11:08 am
The biggest story in the 18th congressional district may involve Schock’s yet-to-be made public tax returns. He consistently refuses to let the sunshine in on his tax returns. The Peoria area media had better wake up.
Comment by there he goes again Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 11:21 am
All in all, it’s not an up month for Republican congressional candidates whose last name ends in “O”. Maybe another few candidates with a surname of “Ryan” would be better.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 11:38 am
Let me get credit for that last one.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 11:39 am
Halvorson blasts Blago. That’s rich
Comment by Snidely Whiplash Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 11:50 am
The Congressional Republicans are going to get slaughtered - and they won’t change their message! What a bunch of boneheads. Tom Cole and his NRCC staffers need to go.
Defending the Iraq War and pro-business ideals right now is pretty stupid. They deserve to get kicked in the teeth.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 11:59 am
How hard is the GOP really trying to tie Halvorson to Blago? I live in Chicago and see Debbie’s TV ads almost every day. I have yet to see an Ozinga or Anti-Halvorson TV ad at all. The only thing really depressing about watching the Ozinga campaign tank is knowing that it means sending a Blago boot-lick like Halvorson to Washington. Here’s to hoping the GOP can field a credible candidate in 2010!
Comment by Tired Chicagoan Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 12:23 pm
Note to wordslinger: For all of John McCain’s numerous shortcomings, at least he has never donated $23,000 to the political warchest of Gov. Sleazy. Once again we have a case where Republicans fail to do a proper vetting process on a prospective candidate. Failing to ask Ozinga, “Have you ever donated money to Rod Blagojevich,” was a toxic mistake, now that Rod has his new title, “Mr. 13%”
Comment by fedup dem Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 12:23 pm
==”Halvorson’s running ahead of Obama? Does that seem right?”==
In that district, Halvorson should have higher numbers than Obama. That’s the expected outcome.
Comment by Policy In Action Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 12:46 pm
==”How hard is the GOP really trying to tie Halvorson to Blago? I live in Chicago and see Debbie’s TV ads almost every day. I have yet to see an Ozinga or Anti-Halvorson TV ad at all.”==
Most of the Republicans here in Will County are acknowledging that Marty is running an underwhelming, ineffective campaign. It’s a pretty pathetic campaign.
He’s still better than Halvorson, though.
Comment by Policy In Action Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 12:51 pm
===Durbin probably ain’t a happy camper right now.=== Is Colleen Callahan related to Gene Callahan, former Dixon chief of staff and baseball lobbyist, and also a friend of Durbins?
Comment by anon from chicago Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 1:08 pm
Team Sleep, I support the Iraq war, and I was there. I was in the navy for 21 years, and I was near Baghdad, Sept. 2004-Mar. ‘05. While I was there, I rarely heard my co-workers complain about our presence, in Iraq. After I returned to IL, I heard many people, who haven’t served in the military, complain about it.
Comment by Phil Collins Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 2:16 pm
Phil, I’m not clear on your point. Only those in the military have a valid viewpoint on the war?
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 2:40 pm
lol at Rod. Its your own fault, dude! You coulda been a contenda.
Comment by Bill Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 2:40 pm
Bill-
I guess it’s bad news when his best buddy’s deputy throws him under the bus…or is it, all in all, an up day?
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 2:58 pm
Is Gov. Blagojevich discovering there are negative consequences to be stupendously unpopular?
The DCCC threw Blagojevich under the bus.
I wonder if Blagojevich paid all his dues to the DCCC.
Even if Blagojevich was a loyal soldier on this front, he’s really unpopular. The DCCC had an opportunity to cut an effective ad against a Republican, an ad that would hurt Blagojevich.
The DCCC may obfuscate who made the final call, but the mission of the DCCC is to elect people like Halvorson, it’s not to protect people like Blagojevich.
And if the speculation about Blagojevich being indicted when Rezko cuts a deal is true, there’s no reason to look out for Blagojevich anyway. He’s just a walking dead man.
Politics can be a cold, calculating business. It sucks to be on the losing end of someone else’s calculation. But Blagojevich has to take some responsibility for both surrounding himself with people who make it look like he will be indicted and for being unpopular.
Actions have consequences. The DCCC ad is a manifestation of Blagojevich’s problems, it’s not *the* problem.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 3:19 pm
well said
Comment by Kevin Fanning Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 3:31 pm
Rich, your constant refernce to McCain’s “slumping” poll numbers in Illinois districts is disingenuous. What would we expect from a siting Illinois. U.S. Senator running for President. Of course, Obama’s home state will rally to support him, even traditionally Republican districts. Not newsworthy at all.
Waiting for an October surprise…
Comment by Black Ivy Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 3:34 pm
No IL Dem. is actually pro-gun or they wouldn’t have endorsed a statewide ticket that is completely anti-gun.
Comment by NRA Member Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 3:36 pm
“Ozinga sold himself as a business leader, which he is. As the Market melted down, so did his poll numbers.”
John Burge would be proud at how well you’ve managed to torture logic here.
Now, had you written, “Ozinga is a Republican, and as the economy tanked, and with voters blaming Republicans, his numbers fell off,” I would have credited your insight.
Or, you might take wisdom from Tired Chicagoan, who noticed that Debbie Halvorson is on broadcast TV. Martin Ozinga, not.
It makes a difference.
Comment by JonShibleyFan Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 3:37 pm
==Now, had you written, “Ozinga is a Republican, and as the economy tanked, and with voters blaming Republicans, his numbers fell off,” I would have credited your insight.==
We are not seeing all Republicans impacted as severly as Ozinga has been. This makes him different from other GOP candidates. This is a GOP drawn district, which makes Ozinga’s polling numbers more of a surprise.
The difference is how Ozinga sold himself. He established an image as a businessman who is bipartisan, hence covering himself regarding his contributions to Blagojevich and his friendships with Daleys.
As the Market tanked, the idea of electing a successful businessman also tanked. Ozinga has been caught with a fading image inappropriate for this election. What was once a strength for him politically, is not a hinderance.
You drew your assessment too broadly, that is why it isn’t as correct as mine.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 3:45 pm
Blagojevich is responding to a different ad — not the one produced by the Halvorson campaign, which we posted and you embedded above.
Blagojevich is upset about the recent anti-Ozinga spot from the DCCC, which is much harder on him. Here’s the link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngo1pZNvvfI
Comment by Josh Kalven Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 4:22 pm
This is a GOP drawn district, which makes Ozinga’s polling numbers more of a surprise.
Ah, but what a difference a decade makes, in fast-growing districts like the 11th, 13th and 14th. The ground has literally shifted under the feet of these districts with an influx of people, many from Cook County and some of the more “blue collar” collar county towns.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 4:31 pm
Again, VM, I repeat two words: network television.
Comment by JonShibleyFan Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 5:04 pm
If Mendoza is switching parties, she made a great move. If not, Mendoza should rescind her public endorsement and support Democrats — even if the Democrat in question lives in Peoria.
Comment by Doggone Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 5:04 pm
How a governor at 13% approval can be surprised that his “friends” treat him like a pinata is hilarious to me.
On the other hand, other than Roskam, has the Illinois GOP made him an issue? Why not?
Carl Nyberg said it very well. Rod and his bush-league cronies have played it fast, loose, arrogant, and frankly, stupid, for a long time. The bill’s come due. Now it’s a matter of who pays.
This is one of those times when this quote from the Deep Throat character in “All the President’s Men” (the quote is from the screenplay, not authentic) resonates:
‘The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand. “
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 5:21 pm
===We are not seeing all Republicans impacted as severly as Ozinga has been. This makes him different from other GOP candidates. This is a GOP drawn district, which makes Ozinga’s polling numbers more of a surprise.
Actually, the polling for most Republicans is in the toilet. Charlie Cook just downgraded a whole host of races today again with almost all movement away from Republicans. Ozinga appears to be exactly like other Republican Congressional Candidates this cycle.
Comment by archpundit Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 5:21 pm
Colleen Callahan is Gene Callahan’s niece. She has deep roots in agriculture and understands rural community needs far better than Schock. This republican is supporting Colleen!
Comment by shepherd Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 6:23 pm
Why should she rescind her endorsement? They are FRIENDS and she knows how he operates in Springfield. Colon Powell endorsed Obama and people aren’t outraged. This is the first only and time that she has supported a Republican and he is a Republican that works very well with the Dems. At least Mendoza has a backbone unlike most of the people in Springfield.
Comment by Law500 Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 6:46 pm
I agree with Law500… That’s really ignorant to say that Rep. Mendoza should rescind her endorsement. She should be able to endorse anyone she wants based on their character and not solely their party. I don’t know Schock, but it sounds like she does. I think this is something to be respected. Don’t we want to encourage our political leaders to work together instead of constantly being so blindly partisan? I know I do.
Comment by The Observer Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 7:05 pm
It’s time for Aaron Schock to release his tax returns to the public. After being found guilty of backdating his dad’s overseas tax shelters, now he won’t release his tax returns. What kind of hinky stuff is this guy up to. And he wants voters to send him to Washington to vote on budget and tax policies. This guy is taxing my patience.
Comment by there he goes again Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 7:59 pm
There’s a difference between a current elected official that counts on party support crossing party lines and endorsing than someone like Powell who is retired and not expecting party support in the next election.
Mendoza should leave her endorsement on the table.
And some ambitious Dem should use it against her in the next election.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 8:08 pm
Carl.
First of all, I am a democrat and I’ve never voted Republican. Rep. Mendoza has always been and continues to be a good democrat who supports the values important to her party and her constituents. Supporting Schock who happens to be a republican shows her courage. And the article that I read explains why she did it. She stands up for people she believes in; sometimes friendships don’t carry party labels. She had the courage to do something she felt was right, even though it might have been unpopular. Good for her. More politicians should be like that.
Comment by Chicago lou Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 8:46 pm
Six, “name recognition” pluses and minuses aren’t going to apply to the next couple of elections. Voters are beyond that; they’re looking closely at connections–and no one within five of Goldman or banking overall–and related $$–is going to be received well as a candidate in the US for a while.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 9:26 pm
she should keep her endorsement for shock. why not a repub? mendoza has a history of supporting people against incumbents…ask delgado/soto.
Comment by anon Thursday, Oct 23, 08 @ 9:39 pm
Chicago lou, there are other good Democrats in Mendoza’s district who would like to have her job.
Incumbents have an advantage in elections because the party apparatus stands by them.
If Durbin and Axelrod work the phones, Rep. Mendoza may find what it’s like to run as an incumbent with the party apparatus actively opposing her.
Mendoza seems not to understand some of the key factors that keep her in power, or she takes them for granted.
Durbin should take the opportunity to make this a teachable moment.
The Democratic Party puts up a bunch of crappy candidates in Cook County. People who support the Dem Party on the national level put up with these crappy candidates b/c everybody is on the same team at the federal level.
Again, it seems Rep. Mendoza needs to get educated about how the system works. She’s playing by her own rules. And it’s a free country, so she’s allowed to play by her own rules. But stupid decisions have consequences.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:31 am
I dont understand why people make such a big issue about a dem supporting a rep, especially when we keep hearing about reaching out to the other aisle to get things done. Good for Mendoza for supporting someone that she knows she can count on for support, even if he is from the other party. She is not your typical politician, she has a backbone and stands up for what she believes to be right, maybe if more politicians were like her, we would get more things done in Illinois and DC. Sometimes the right people to support are those who are in the same party as you are, but those that you know will work with you get things done for the people!
Comment by why not work together???? Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 12:23 pm
Carl,
I don’t think there is anyone in the 1st district who works as hard as she does for the community or who is better qualified. She is always at community events and is very acessible to people, and easy to talk to about issues and problems.
Its not like Rep. Mendoza always does whatever she feels like, she seems very loyal to the democratic party and respectful of the powers that be. This is one isolated incident in which she realized the Peoria district is strongly republican, and she decided to stand up for a personal friend who she thinks works well across the aisle and is a well-qualified candidate. In the ad she does not formally endorse Schock, she speaks highly of him. She does not say anything detrimental about democrats.
I want my Rep. to be a leader. Leaders make decisions and don’t always ask permission. I am sure however, that if she had been asked to stay out of this congressional race early on, she would have. If you think she should be ‘taught’ a lesson, then that is your opinion. But I think her voters/constituents will stand behind her leadership and hard work.
Comment by Chicago Lou Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 1:53 pm