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We’ve done it before, but now we’re a week away so let’s do it again.
Your Illinois election day predictions, please.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:34 am
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I won’t call the President election, but I will bet that the con-con gets the required number of yes votes to pass, but it’ll barely get there. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 60% on the nose.
Comment by Levois Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:36 am
A big,big victory for Barack Obama is in the future. While the polls are predicting him right now, I believe that the just registered people will give him a very large push.
I would like to see the Senate get a 60 vote advantage for Democrats. In recent years, I have mostly voted for Republicans. Boy what a mistake that was with Bush. Now I am ready to see what the Democrats will do.
Comment by Anonymous One Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:40 am
Burzynski over Forby in Southern Illinois.
Comment by Just My Opinion Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:41 am
Obama 57-McCain 43.
Halvorsen 55-Ozinga 40 -Wallace 5
Foster 54 - Oberweis 46
Kirk 51 - Seals 49
Schock 52 - Callahan 48
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:47 am
Big Obama win results in House Dems adding 6 seats (Hassert,Coulson,Wait,Mathias,Mulligan,Schock (seat) defeated). But lose Granberg seat for a net gain of 5. Senate GOP pick up Forby. Con-con wins, just barely, and more $ are spent on a recount than were spent by the groups opposed to the con-con.
Comment by culatr Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:47 am
Very close election. The judges can’t make the decision, so they are going to try something new this time. Obama and McCain are going fishing. In upper Minnesota. One canadate at one end of the lake and the other at the other end. Who ever catches the most fish will win. Fist day Mccain caught 25 fish and Obama 0, the second day McCain 20 and Obama 0, and finally the third day Bill Clinton walked up to Obama and said “I think McCain is cheating you better go check it out”. Obama went to spy on McCain and went back to Clinton and said ” He is cheating he drilled a whole in the ice”.
Just some fun humor.
Comment by school is fun Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:49 am
Sorry, I ment hole in the ice not whole in the ice.
Comment by school is fun Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:50 am
Blagojevich 100 | 0
(uncontested)
landslide
Comment by GoBearsss Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:51 am
Con Con wins, opponents demand recount.
Schock, Kirk, Roskam win.
Lil’ Debbie wins, big target in 2010.
Obama wins.
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:54 am
Big Obama win results in House Dems adding 6 seats (Hassert,Coulson,Wait,Mathias,Mulligan,Schock (seat) defeated).
I’m not sure Obama has that big of an effect on the House seats. The Dem candidates have been doing their own thing, not piggybacking on Obama - obviously, a small minority of voters will vote Democratic straight down the ballot, but I give more credit to DPI in-kind contributions from MJM.
Cross’s Number 2 Hassert will be a huge defeat in Springfield.
Comment by Corey Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:55 am
Linda Holmes loses re-election.
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:58 am
I think Illinois is getting tired of the big Dem Machine, and I think Obama will win Illinois but McCain will win overall. I think there will be a lot of republicans winning the senate seats.
Comment by Boscobud Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 11:59 am
Con-con gets the “yes” majority
McCain loses Illinois, but wins the election..to long to explain why.
Every incumbent Congressman/Congresswoman wins…and as much as I hate to say it…Halvorsen looks like she will win over Ozinga.
Comment by scoot Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:00 pm
Hoepfully warm and Sunny
Here’s the Chicago Forecast for Monday
Generous sunshine turning windy and noticeably milder. High temperatures into the upper 60s. South to southwest winds gust over 25 m.p.h.
Comment by Tommy Skillethead Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:01 pm
The Obama wave will be big, but rampant dislike for Blago will be bigger, allowing the House GOP to hold on…but just barely.
Other predictions:
State Senate:
No gains, no losses…although I’d personally love to see victories in the 42nd and 59th.
Congress:
Halvorson, Foster and Schock win, Roskam and Kirk hang on.
Comment by GOP gal Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:13 pm
Blagoof will spend from now til election day campaigning for the GAs bright lites Forby Wait & Hassert…surprisingly, the effort only Forby will survive.
Capt. Kirk goes down…Senator Halverson wins…Fast Tony loses his last election…. Despite Blagoof & Capt. Fax appeals the ConCon con goes down….If I get a vision on other races I’ll report back.
Comment by 2ConfusedCrew Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:14 pm
By Senate, I mean Senate GOP.
Comment by GOP gal Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:15 pm
Obama - 58%
Senate Democrats - No change.
House Democrats - +4
Halvorson - 53%
Seals - 50.4%
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:16 pm
Obama by 5%
Congress: All the incumbents and Halvorson, Schock, (and in a nod to Rich) Seals by 1%.
House: Incumbents including Coulson, Mathias, Mulligan, Munson, Froelich and Crespo, and McGuire and Krupa.
Senate: All incumbents including Murphy and Kotowski.
Con-con will pass at close to 60%.
Carnac also says “Answer: a Harvey Wall-banger.
Question: What do you get when you cross Todd Palin with a liberal-media reporter named Harvey.”
Comment by Carnac Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:18 pm
Obama 62-38 over McCain
Forby hangs on to win by 3%
Cavaletto beats Hahn in the 107th by 8%
Con-Con fails
Comment by So ILL Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:25 pm
tommy-
I hope you are planning on showing up at the polls on Tuesday instead of Monday.
Anyway,
Obama wins IL - no brainer
con-con might get a majority but not 60% from what I am seeing.
Foster and Kirk win squeakers
Halvorson wins maybe by 10%
Schock wins handily
IL Senate and house - less change than you’d expect.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:27 pm
Six degrees has it almost exactly right with HDEMS picking up two. Senate even.
Comment by Bill Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:40 pm
Hey Rich,
I just saw a political ad on Fox News, in the back ground they are playing the song “The More We Stick Together” and they show pictures of Paul, Rod, and Todd.
Comment by Helpless Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:42 pm
SoILL - Forby’s not gonna make it according to the people I’ve talked to. Franklin County, home to Gary Forby, has the highest unemployment rate in the State. They’ve given Forby 8 years to do nothing and are ready to take a chance on another.
Comment by Just My Opinion Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 12:48 pm
Obama - 59%
Durbin - 62%
Seals - 50.1%
Halvorson - 53%
Foster - 51%
Schock - 58%
House Dems +2 (win three, lose one)
Senate - no change
If more than about 16.5% drop off and don’t vote on Con Con, then the threshold will be 60% of those voting on the question rather than 50% of tbc — ain’t gonna happen. It gets 56% and Rich doesn’t get to run for delegate.
Comment by One week Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:00 pm
Obama wins Illinois of course. Takes the White House with 290 electoral votes. Blago appoints me to the U.S. Senate. Con-Con is approved…60%. Forby is kicked out of the Senate…Obama may have coattails but they ain’t that long.
Durbin wins…80%.
Comment by Deep South Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:14 pm
Obama wins by 20-25 points in Illinois.
Lots of discouraged/disillusioned Republicans stay home, coupled with phenomenal, recordbreaking Democratic tunrnout in Illinois.
Anita Alvarez slaughters Tony Peraica in the Cook County State’s Attorney race. Her margin of victory seems likely to surpass Obama’s.
I’m predicting two upsets: Seals over Kirk - despite the North Shore’s predicliction for ticket-splitting, I thnk there are going to be a lot more straight ticket Democratic votes than usual.
Biss upsets Coulson. I’ve been doing suburban train stations for Daniel Biss for the last several weeks. The suburbs are new territory for me. In my whole 20 year career as a political volunteer, I’ve never had so many people tell me that a local candidate has knocked on their door and spoken with them personally (Daniel Biss).
Coulson counters with good reputation as a Republican moderate and a sweep of the newspaper endorsements.
I’m going to give shoe-leather the edge over newsprint, primarily because of the Obama tsunami that will sweep through suburban Cook County.
The key factor seems to be whether or not a desire to punish the Republican Party for the miserable performance of the Bush adminstration triumphs over ticket-splitting tendencies in the electorate. I think it is a national election.
If Coulson survives the Obama tsunami, then I would characterize her as invincible in her District. No future Democratic candidate would ever be able to outwork Daniel Biss.
Regardless of which candidate ultimately prevails, I think the 17th Dstrict is the real winner. Both candidates are good people. I just prefer the upstart independent progressive Democrat to the moderate independent Republican incumbent.
May the best person win!
Comment by Captain America Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:16 pm
November 4. And not a day too soon.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:16 pm
IL House:
- Froelich loses to Anita Forte-Scott.
- Cavaletto beats Hahn to take the seat.
- Mathis keeps his seat.
- Rosemary Mulligan loses her seat.
- Darlene Senger beats Diane McGuire.
- Hoffman narrowly defeats Dwight Kay.
- Coulson fends off Dan Biss.
I can’t think of any more right now. I know there are more but my mind is wandering.
IL Senate:
- Burzynski defeats Forby.
- Wintermute defeats Linda Holmes.
- Matt Murphy keeps his seat.
- Dan Duffy wins his race.
- Emil Jones III gets a pie in the face from Roy “The Clown” Wardingly.
Congressional Seats:
- Schock beats the tar out of Callahan. I’m talking 20 points tar.
- Ozinga gets his butt kicked by Debbie H.
- Kirk retains his seat.
- Roskam eeks out a victory.
- Phil Hare combs his mustache.
- Judy Biggert keeps his seat.
Durbin will smoke Dr. Sauerberg.
Obama 65, McCain 32, Barr 2, McKinney 1
The con-con passes and gets tied up in court.
Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:21 pm
Obama 65%
Seals Wins
Roskam Wins
Halvorson Wins
Foster Wins
House picks up 3 (Tuite, Gordon, Farnham) loses 1
Gailey wins (8000 new registers at NIU)
Comment by Glam-Or-Party Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:34 pm
Obama: 61%, although McCain wins more counties
Durbin: 56%
Con-Con: 47% Yes, lawsuit and do-over in 2010 with new governor election and it actually becomes a campaign issue
I agree with JMO: Forby is out. Obama has no coattails long enough to reach that far south.
Comment by Vote Quimby! Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:37 pm
I do think Forby will lose…but not in Franklin County. I think the Cubs will win the series before Franklin County votes for a Republican!!!! It just ain’t ever gonna happen…I mean Franklin County voting Republican…not the Cubs. If in fact, Franklin County DOES go for Burzyinski - well that will tell us a whole lot about Forby AND Blago. Yikes…can’t wait till about midnight on Nov. 4.
Comment by Deep South Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:45 pm
Obama, Durbin, Kirk, Halvorson, Foster, Schock, Roskam
Con-con loses, but it is within 5-10 pts., proponents file suit over language (and some counties not providing handouts), they will win, it will be back on the ballot in 2010.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 1:50 pm
Illinois predictions
Durbin by 34%
Obama by 22%
Halvorson by 18%
Bean by 18%
Roskam by 8%
Foster by 8%
Seals by 6%
Biggert by 4%
Haven’t seen enough polling to predict state legislature changes.
Comment by Boone Logan Square Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 2:14 pm
Sam Robb narrowly defeating Vernon Carter in the Perry County Comminsioner Race.
Comment by Political Panther Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 2:15 pm
Emil Jones III wins in a landslide. Holmes beats Wintermute by 578 votes. Forby wins by 1 1/2 points. Kotowski in a walk..
Comment by ivoted4judy Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 2:18 pm
Obama wins Illinois 62%-33% with the remaining 5% going to third party candidates.
Durbin smokes Sauerberg 60%-39%
Roskam holds on against Morgenthaler 52%-48%
Bean easily beats Greenberg 52%-46%
Seals narrowly defeats Kirk 51%-49%
Halvorson crushes Ozinga 55%-40% (5% for Wallace)
Biggert defeats Harper 55%-45%
Foster beats Oberweis 55%-45%
Shock defeats Callahan 54%-46%
Comment by Ben Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 2:27 pm
I’ll take the Republican angle.
And I quote that under appreciated actor Mr. T as Clubber Lang from Rocky III:
“My prediction?….Pain!!”
Comment by GOP'er Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 2:29 pm
Obama will win 285 electoral votes. In IL, he’ll win 56%.
In the U.S. Senate race: Durbin, 55%; Sauerberg, 34%; Cathy Cummings (Green Party), 6%; Chad Koppie (Constitution Party), 3%; and Larry Stafford (Libertarian), 2%.
Seals, Greenberg, Oberweis, Ozinga, Roskam, and Schock will win.
St. Senators Kotowski, Holmes, and Forby will lose. St. Reps. Crespo and Froehlich will lose. All other incumbents will win.
Con. con. will pass.
Comment by ConservativeVeteran Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 2:39 pm
Illinois loses.
Comment by Captain Flume Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 2:40 pm
John McCain/Sarah Palin turn the pundits on their heads and take the presidency/vice presidency; the U.S. Senate gains one additional Democratic seat and the U.S. House of Representatives gains five Democratic seats; Governor Blagojevich survives pending indictment rumors; Senator Cullerton emerges as the untouchable Senate President frontrunner; the Senate Democrats maintain their super-majority by an inch; and the House Democrats pick up a few seats.
Change is a comin’…
Comment by Black Ivy Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 2:45 pm
The 18th District Congressional race might end with less than 5 percentage points between Republican Aaron Schock and Democrat Colleen Callahan. It will definitely end with less than 10 points difference.
In the 92nd House Race, Jehan Gordon will ride Barack Obama’s coattails to defeat Republican Joan Krupa. All these new voters who get all their information from campaign ads will assume Gordon and Kruba are just slinging mud at each other, when in fact the mud sticks to Gordon, but not to Krupa. This race will end within the 5 point range too.
Comment by Billy Dennis Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 2:55 pm
I find it real hard to believe that Forby is going to lose the 59th District. He has fought off much tougher competition than Burzynski.
Comment by Old Shepherd Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 2:56 pm
Obama 54% McCain 41% Nader 5%
Halvorson 53% Ozinga 44% Wallace 3%
Comment by stones Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 3:02 pm
Obama 68%
Kirk wins
Halvorson wins
Biggert wins
Bean wins
Duffy wins
Link wins
Comment by 10th Indy Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 3:18 pm
Obama by 3.
Durbin by 22.
Con-con will pass.
Bean wins.
Kirk by 1.
Foster by 9.
Roskam by 6.
Biggert by 14.
Halvorson by 3.
Schock by 16.
Coulson and Mulligan both pull it out in close ones.
Jehan Gordon wins in Peoria.
Dianne McGuire pulls a close one in Aurora.
Forby loses.
For an election of change, it’s really just more of the same.
Comment by Bill S. Preston, Esq. Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 3:27 pm
Obama 55% nationally (around 320 EV)
Kirk, Halvorson, Foster, Schock (closer than people expect)
US House Dems +28
US Senate Dems +6
Dem pick ups (Warner VA, Udall CO/ NM, Begich AK, Hagan NC, Shaheen NH, suprise Musgrove MS) Dems 56, 2 IN, 42 GOP
IL House Dems +4 Coulson, Mathias win
IL Sen Even Steven
Jesse White is the next US Sen from IL and Jay Hoffman is your next Sec of State
Comment by JohnnyC Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 3:32 pm
And Con Con fails to get 50%
Comment by JohnnyC Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 3:33 pm
No Nadar votes for president nationally?
I see the fringe candidates doing better than expected, just because so many Republicans have little use for McCain and some Democrats can’t bring themselves to vote for an African-American.
Obama still beats McCain soundly in the Electoral College and less so in the majority of votes cast, but there will be a surge in third party voting that will be the talk of the post-election commentators.
Comment by Capitol View Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 3:48 pm
Hoffman as SOS? You are really scaring me now..
Comment by country girl Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:03 pm
Jessie White to the Senate and Jay Hoffman to SOS makes too much sense for Blago. Which is just as much a reason why it may not happen.
Forgot OR for my Sen pick ups. Merkley by 10.
Comment by JohnnyC Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:07 pm
==Hoffman as SOS? You are really scaring me now==
LOL…each drivers license would then have a picture of Blagojevich instead of yours, or maybe a “buddy” picture with the governor superimposed on a drivers license…the license becomes revoked if your vehicle enters a state park.
Comment by Vote Quimby! Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:27 pm
==He has fought off much tougher competition than Burzynski==
I don’t doubt that, but for whome the bell tolls…
Comment by Vote Quimby! Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:28 pm
Obama wins IL, 65/32. Obama wins election, 310+ EVs, including PA, VA, CO, IA, NM, NV, FL. OH and IN barely for McCain. Fortunately it won’t matter.
Kirk wins a squeaker, 51/49. Con con majority, but doesn’t quite make it to 60%, unfortunately.
Comment by doubtful Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:30 pm
Also that people will accuse political organizations and government officials off all stripes of engaging in some sort of ‘master plan’, while those of us who know how these entities work laugh realizing that sort of coordination is beyond the skills of said groups…
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:36 pm
Most of the incumbents win, but Linda Holmes loses.
Comment by aqui, alli, alla Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:40 pm
StateWideTom’s secret radio ads could cost him aa few more seats ….can you say TTFN Sid,Ron,Brent?
Comment by EmptySuitParade Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 4:40 pm
Many Dems will be shocked that George Bush is not on the ballot. Many will walk away disillusioned and will begin to picket polling places.
Comment by BIG R.PH. Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 5:15 pm
Obama by 20 points, Seals by 1 point, but Crespo and Froelich lose
Comment by Mongo Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 5:21 pm
Bean 61
Greenberg 39
(If you’d like to hear the October crickets, visit Greenberg’s campaign office — Rand Rd, Lake Zurich.)
Seals 50.5
Kirk 49.5
(Andy McKenna & Lake Co Rep Chair Dan Venturi today filed their injunction against this election. Expect more to come.)
Comment by IllinoisEddie Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 5:24 pm
My prediction -
More people will have their hand out for gimmies than have their sleeves rolled up for work.
The Dem’s will see to that.
Comment by The orginal South of I-80 Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 5:36 pm
Might as well be the first in line, then.
Gimme.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 5:47 pm
OUCH!!!
Comment by The orginal South of I-80 Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 6:01 pm
Anita Alvarez over Peraica - let’s say 73-25 and 2 for the other guy.
Comment by Four Doors Down Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 6:18 pm
The Original South of I-80–
I have to party with you, dude, because you are stoned!
In the last month, we’ve seen AIG, every Wall Street investment banking firm, WaMu, Indy Bank, etc., at the taxpayer trough. Now, GM and Chrylser are in line.
Our welfare clients on the executive team at AIG managed to have a spa weekend in California AND a hunting weekend in Scotland AFTER their two rounds of bailouts.
The Federal Reserve window is now open to any Fortune 100 entity going bust, as their executives float to to a cushioned fall on golden parachutes provided by 401K investors. You know, regular folks like you, South of I-80.
The printing presses at the U.S. Mint are rolling overtime to cover the avarice and ignorance of the Best and the Brightest that the MBA factories produced. We all know what MBA stands for, right?
Fortunately, the Chinese and the oil sheiks, like the Japanese in the 80s, are going to have to invest in the U.S. before all the dollars they’re holding are Gone Like the Wind like Confederate War Bonds.
And for the capper, the Grand Poohbah of The Loyal Order of Raccoons, Alan Greenspan, went before Congress and said “Gee, this is bad, isn’t it? Is this bad? Boy, somebody should have seen this coming. I’m sorry.”
I-80, who’s got their sleeves rolled up ready to go to work? Why don’t you jump on the El at 4 a.m. sometime and you’ll see.
Who’s got their hands out for a gimme? Read the Wall Street Journal.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 7:47 pm
Obama wins the popular vote. Loses the electorial college in a squeaker; McCain/Palin surprise winners. Con-con loses big.
Comment by Jechislo Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 8:28 pm
There is some serious koolaid drinking going on in this state!!
Obama big - obviously!
Halvorson equally big
Seals in a nose at the line
Roskam wins despite late charge
Biggert by a whole lot less than expected; shortly resigns and is replaced by much younger/tougher replacement
Foster easily over the milkman loser (AGAIN!)
House Dems — here comes more suburban Dems in Will County!!!
Senate Dems — Holmes survives — Thank you Obama!
Jesse White — stay at the SOS — we need some good people left here in Illinois!!
Comment by Wheatland Tom Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 9:35 pm
Lake county petition collection takes a turn…for the worse..sleep well Sen. Link
Comment by chessplayer Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 9:37 pm
Obama north of 300 electoral votes, maybe up to 340
Con-Con loses
Comment by steve schnorf Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 10:17 pm
Durbin by 25.
Obama by 15.
Comment by there he goes again Tuesday, Oct 28, 08 @ 10:45 pm
Obama will be elected the 44th President of the United States. Of course, Illinois will deliver for him big time. But, Indiana will turn blue (and we all know that will be temporary) and vote Obama because of the massive organization Obama has built there. I know, I am one of the Indiana crazies marching there every weekend and each weekend the numbers get bigger. Missouri will be much closer, but Obama will win there too. The massive organization there will be the edge.
Back to Illinois, many surprises in store. Halvorson a definite. Seals will edge out Kirk. Roskam will be one of the few survivors in Illinois (where is Cegalis when we need her). Biggert will get a good scare but likely will survive too.
I have no sense of where con-con is going, except I hope it passes. Not much public discussion about it with the Presidential campaign overshadowing this issue.
Nationwide, the Senate will have 60, but that is tenuous at best because of the Lieberman factor. If Joe gets knocked off his chairmanships he may officially turn Republican and caucus with Republicans. He is untrustworthy and disloyal. Having a veto proof anything (as we found out in Illinois), isn’t a guarantee for anything.
Comment by John Presta Wednesday, Oct 29, 08 @ 2:57 am
Anonymous one, we have seen how good the Dems have done for the State of Illinois…..WoW, you want that for our Country. Are you in a coma or what?
Comment by Big W Wednesday, Oct 29, 08 @ 7:14 am