More questions about that Simon poll
Thursday, Mar 1, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Background is here if you need it. From the Tribune’s Rick Pearson…
The [Paul Simon Public Policy Institute] survey, conducted Feb. 19 through Sunday, was made up of registered voters who identified their party preference to poll takers and said they were likely to vote in the March 20 primary. The sample was not weighted to reflect voters more likely to go to the polls based on past voting history and was not adjusted for historical racial and age demographics or turnout.
For example, African-Americans make up about one-third of the state’s Democratic primary vote. But of Democratic voters surveyed in the poll, only 19 percent were black based on those giving their race or ethnicity to pollsters. […]
Among African-American voters, a key demographic in Democratic elections, Pritzker had 45 percent to 22 percent for Kennedy and 6 percent for Biss, the poll showed. But the smaller sample of black voters also has a significantly larger margin of error.
In addition, Chicago voters cast one-third of the state’s Democratic primary votes in the 2016 presidential primary election. But only a quarter of the voters in the poll who said they would vote in the Democratic primary were from Chicago.
The Tribune almost never writes about anybody else’s polls, so this story makes me wonder if the paper is ever going to do its own poll. Usually, it does two and would have published one by now.
- Thomas Paine - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 10:41 am:
The Tribune has endorsed Chris Kennedy.
It seems likely they HAVE conducted a poll.
It seems unlikely they will release a poll showing their endorsed candidate in third place.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 10:44 am:
===The Tribune has endorsed Chris Kennedy. It seems likely they HAVE conducted a poll.===
Malarkey. They endorsed a candidate for AG who is polling in the low single digits. They’ve endorsed legislative candidates who haven’t raised a dime or just a few hundred bucks.
Stop it.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 10:46 am:
A lot of these questions would end up cutting different ways (i.e.- JB probably gets hurt by a loose LV screen, Kennedy/Biss probably get hurt from undersampling Chicago). I’m not sure I’d go so far as to say that those questions balance each other out, but they do enough that I think the poll is still worth throwing on the pile. I suspect it’s right in broad strokes (who’s ahead, if they’re ahead by a lot or a little) but the specific numbers might be off by 5 or so.
- Concerned Dem - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 10:49 am:
Why would the Trib want to contradict it’s own carefully crafted reality with pesky data from the real world?
- Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 10:55 am:
==It seems unlikely they will release a poll showing their endorsed candidate in third place.==
Nah, part of the Trib Edit Board’s game is to pick go-nowhere candidates so that it doesn’t have to actually own up to anything.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 10:57 am:
===part of the Trib Edit Board’s game is to pick go-nowhere candidates so that it doesn’t have to actually own up to anything.===
See Johnson, Gary.
- RealTy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 11:02 am:
Seeing that the Tribune is corrupt. Who is to say they didn’t do a poll or 2? Just never published it since it didn’t look so well for GovJunk. That’s what led them to publish the Pritzker tapes.
- LXB - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 11:03 am:
Weighting to population probably means Raoul has a legitimate (rather than marginal) lead.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 11:26 am:
==Weighting to population probably means Raoul has a legitimate (rather than marginal) lead.==
That’s a good point, all of these questions accrue to Raoul’s benefit.
- Soccermom - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 11:48 am:
I’m not sure that all of these questions help Raoul. This poll skews young (60 percent cellphones, callers asked to speak with youngest registered voter in the household.) So an older demographic of actual voters may help Quinn, even in the African-American community.
- Graybeard - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 11:54 am:
What is considered “Chicago suburbs” in this poll? For the general election, this poll has 70% of the vote coming from Chicago or the suburbs. In 2010, only 37% of the vote was from Cook County per Scott Kennedy’s site.
- Responsa - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 12:12 pm:
People are now looking at polls and trying to read them like tea leaves or use them as a Ouija board? Yeah that works.
- Graybeard - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 12:22 pm:
No, Responsa. There’s a science to polling that doesn’t exist in tea leaves or Ouija board.
- Responsa - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 12:24 pm:
Dream on Greybeard.
- Soccermom - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 12:43 pm:
Responsa, what do you think polling is supposed to be used for?
- Bottle rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 12:47 pm:
The race is heading towards a photo finish with three candidates finishing approximately around 30%. Several X factors will determine the outcome.
1. Turnout: Biss needs a high turnout over 1.1 million to win.
2. Rauner’s triangulation: Rauner’s preferred opponent is Kennedy. It is a double scoop sundae to attack JB, as the attack ads peel off votes from JB to Kennedy increasing the likelihood he wins, while at a minimum he drastically has driven up JB’s negatives.
3. The Big Mo’: The candidate with the momentum at the end wins the election. JB and Kennedy have topped out. Biss has the most potential to grow and surge the last 20 days.
Before the FBI tapes I would have wagered JB as a lock to win with around 38%. Post FBI tapes I Handicap it at Kennedy 28%, JB 31% and Biss 36% for the win due to his momentum, a high turnout, and Rauner’s attack ads against JB. The stars magically aligned for Biss.
- Ron - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 12:49 pm:
Bottle rocket, good assessment, though it’s Biss who seems to be fading and Kennedy that is gaining.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 12:50 pm:
- Bottle rocket -
That is one heck of an analysis. I think you covered it all… yep… I think you’re on it.
Just… one… question…
Explain GOTV, a ground game, and where they all stand on a fully functioning statewide apparatus?
Hmm.
- Lucky Pierre - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 12:56 pm:
The Tribune’s Gary Johnson endorsement was a true protest vote.
I agree with it, Hillary and Trump were the most flawed candidates for President in my lifetime and given Hillary’s was guaranteed win in Illinois it made sense
- Annonin' - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 12:58 pm:
Seems like this story was designed to stop the mass evacuation from GovJunk by those GOPies who now view him as a hopeless loser who should face total retribution by nominating ComandoIves
- Bottle Rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 1:21 pm:
OW: I factored in JB’s massive paid ground game, the trade union guys tha will lit drop for him, the teachers who will make calls, and the firefighters that will knock doors. He has put together an impressive statewide ground game which is the only thing that will save him from finishing in third place like he did in his congressional race.
The FBI tapes are incredibly damaging in the current political climate and Rauner will happily write checks for 4-5 million dollars to slam JB between now and Election Day. Hence again why Biss is one lucky plucky duck.
- Responsa - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 1:31 pm:
==Responsa, what do you think polling is supposed to be used for?==
So pollsters can make money and so campaigns and causes can find things to issue press releases about.
Internal campaign polls that none of us laymen are ever allowed to actually see (those which track trends and evaluate messaging within specific pre-selected voter segments) are probably the most interesting and useful ones.
Seriously, there are a lot of smart people on this blog but my caution is that often too much credence is seemingly put on polls without readers understanding what thought may have gone into the questions, the answers, selecting the respondents or the weighting. Just the questions about and issues that have already been raised on this site about this particular Simon poll should give us pause because they illustrate how questionable its results may be. As someone who has both the educational credentials and real world (past) experience creating and dealing with polls and focus groups I can unequivocally tell you two things:
1. In this day and age it is nearly impossible to even get cold called respondents to participate in phone polls and
2. Many who do agree to participate do it as a lark and both consciously and purposefully lie about themselves (age, sex, and voting plans).
Sorry if this is a cynical view but it is an honest view.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 1:36 pm:
===He has put together an impressive statewide ground game which is the only thing that will save him from finishing in third place like he did in his congressional race.===
Pick a poll… Pritzker is leading, double digits, with arguably the best ground game of his opponents to get his pluses to vote now (early) and on Election Day… and you see this as “saving him from coming in 3rd”?
Hmm.
The candidate with the best ground game, leading by double digits… might get saved… from finishing third.
===The FBI tapes are incredibly damaging in the current political climate and Rauner will happily write checks for 4-5 million dollars to slam JB between now and Election Day. Hence again why Biss is one lucky plucky duck.===
Hope is not a strategy.
We don’t fully know if Rauner continues any attacks all the way thru Election Day…
- Arthur Andersen - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 2:09 pm:
Gosh, I swear I heard a huge bottle rocket exploding in Dan Biss’ middle class front yard.
- Blue dog dem - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 2:10 pm:
Amazing what one day can potentially due to polls. RAUNER, despite his cowardice, may in fact get a Trump bump from the steelworkwrs.
- Retired Educator - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 2:31 pm:
This is Pritzker primary to lose. Biss has no chance, (Did you see the 6% AA vote) He can’t get union votes, he can’t get retiree votes, he is counting on socialist leaning progressives. (There are not enough of them) Kennedy has simply run a terrible campaign. He is not good in front of crowds, and when he shows up at all, his message is just angry. Pritzker wins by 15-18%, Prossibly around 40%.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 2:36 pm:
==The FBI tapes are incredibly damaging in the current political climate and Rauner will happily write checks for 4-5 million dollars to slam JB between now and Election Day. ==
So damaging that JB has double digit leads in the primary and general…
- Moline Mo - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 2:42 pm:
I believe Rauner has only spent $11,900 the FBI attack so far and is ramping so we will see. They seem to be having an effect on JB’s polling.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 2:48 pm:
==I believe Rauner has only spent $11,900 the FBI attack so far==
That was just on the 15-minute ad stunt, which got a ton of free media. He’s spent a lot more on the 30 second ads, to say nothing of the free media during JB’s “apology tour”.
Word is out about the Blago tapes. And yet, JB remains in poll position.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 2:51 pm:
Bottle Rocket 12:37
I agree, and also factor in that, without exception, all current or former teachers, university employees and state workers will embrace Biss’ mea culpa on SB 1 and give him a pass on his leading the charge on pension “reform” efforts…none of them could possibly hold a grudge of any kind.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 2:52 pm:
/s
- Moline Mo - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 2:52 pm:
Not sure the word is out. A lot of voters are just now starting to pay attention to the race and Rauner and Kennedy have both been making larger buys recently to get the words out about the tapes so we will see. I have seen less take down stronger candidates in a Democratic Primary.
- Moline Mo - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 2:56 pm:
I completely understand why state workers are upset with Biss rightfully so but I don’t think it is anywhere as damaging as the tapes.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:00 pm:
===Not sure the word is out.===
Pritzker is under water in polling and still has a double digit lead, lol
===Rauner and Kennedy have both been making larger buys recently to get the words out about the tapes so we will see===
Hope… is NOT a plan.
===I have seen less take down stronger candidates in a Democratic Primary.===
And yet, Pritzker has that double digit lead while also being underwater.
- Bottle Rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:00 pm:
Sanders closed a 30 point gap in last month once he started communicating in the 2016 Illinois Democratic Primary mainly riding a high turnout.
Biss is in the same boat if turnout is over 1.1 million Biss wins.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:01 pm:
===I completely understand why state workers are upset with Biss rightfully so but I don’t think it is anywhere as damaging…===
lol, ask Pat Quinn.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:02 pm:
===Sanders closed a 30 point gap in last month once he started communicating in the 2016 Illinois Democratic Primary mainly riding a high turnout.===
Sanders lost.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:05 pm:
==Not sure the word is out.==
Rauner’s been running the ads for almost 2 months now, including spots during the Super Bowl and the Olympics. If the word ain’t out yet after that, I guess he’ll just have to wait for an event that gets more viewers than the Super Bowl.
- Bottle Rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:06 pm:
It would be criminal campaign malpractice if Rauner didn’t tee of on JB. He has unlimited pockets and has tested and showed the attack works. But JB should hope you are right.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:08 pm:
==Sanders closed a 30 point gap in last month once he started communicating in the 2016 Illinois Democratic Primary mainly riding a high turnout.==
Sanders’ guy in IL is lined up behind Kennedy.
- Bottle Rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:09 pm:
And sanders wasn’t down by only 10 points. You have worked ok campaigns OW clearly. You never been on either side of a double digit lead evaporating in the last month?
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:09 pm:
===It would be criminal campaign malpractice if Rauner didn’t tee of on JB===
Why?
lol, Hope is NOT a strategy.
Pritzker is already underwater. The damage has been done.
You and - Moline Mo -… seem to be singing from the same hymnal
- Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:10 pm:
==He has unlimited pockets and has tested and showed the attack works.==
Has he? ‘Cause the ad’s been running for almost 2 months now and the JB-Rauner spread is in the same place it was in December.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:11 pm:
===And sanders wasn’t down by only 10 points.===
Sanders still lost.
===You have worked ok campaigns OW clearly.===
Never assume here.
===You never been on either side of a double digit lead evaporating in the last month?===
Hope is NOT a strategy.
- Bottle Rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:12 pm:
Not sure who about this sanders guy but nearly every organization that back sanders including sanders own political organization is behind Biss.
Biss is going to get 65-75% of the Sanders vote. He just needs a lot of them to turnout and with all the competitive primaries they will.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:15 pm:
==Not sure who about this sanders guy but nearly every organization that back sanders including sanders own political organization is behind Biss.==
That would be Chuy Garcia, and while Our Revolution was inspired by Bernie’s campaign, he has nothing to do with its operation, as evidenced by the fact that it couldn’t get him to endorse Biss himself last week.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:16 pm:
===Biss is going to get 65-75% of the Sanders vote===
Cite please.
Also, how will Biss do with AA voters? Right now he’s stuck in double digits…
- Bottle Rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:23 pm:
OW: well there you go. I have been on both sides of a double digit lead in a tracking poll disappearing the last month of a campaign. So it is something happens with regularity particularly in races where the opponent has low name idea but the funds to robustly communicate.
And what is really hurting JB is the new reveled racially insensitive things he said. That is peeling off voters for JB to Kennedy which helps Biss.
We will just to wait and see but I would bet a shot of malort Rauner and Kennedy bring out the knives.
When Rich posts about Rauner’s six figure ad buy against JB next week we can chat more about how I am wrong then ha.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:23 pm:
Looking back at the 2016 primary, Bernie had basically closed the gap by about 2 weeks out from the primary, so I guess we can take another look at this next week. But since Biss has stalled out in the low 20s for the last few weeks, I think something’s going to have to happen to change that.
But, y’know, things *do* happen.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:28 pm:
==When Rich posts about Rauner’s six figure ad buy against JB next week we can chat more about how I am wrong then ha.==
So Biss’ win rests on Rauner attacking JB? Yeesh. Sucks to not control your own destiny like that, and to have to rely on Rauner to do your dirty work for ya.
- Bottle Rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:29 pm:
Very True. Chuy I am sure will make sure Kennedy wins the 22nd Ward. But chuy has his own campaign. He isn’t out there hustling for Kennedy.
At least in Chicago nearly every progressive group that got behind sanders has rallied behind Biss and a host of progressive primary challengers.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:29 pm:
=== I have been on both sides of a double digit lead in a tracking poll disappearing the last month of a campaign.===
Well, then “you know”.
I’m lucky you can teach me.
===So it is something happens with regularity===
Wow, really? Name 3 statewide races where someone was down double digits in a three way race and pulled it out.
===…particularly in races where the opponent has low name idea but the funds to robustly communicate.==
Really? Show that example too.
Man, my lucky day. I’ll learn lots.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:32 pm:
===At least in Chicago nearly every progressive group that got behind sanders has rallied behind Biss and a host of progressive primary challengers.===
Biss sits at 20%, down 10 points to Pritzker in the City…
- Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:34 pm:
==But chuy has his own campaign. He isn’t out there hustling for Kennedy.==
Nor for Biss, and if your goal is to duplicate Sanders’ 2016 performance in IL, Chuy is a pretty big piece to be missing.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:37 pm:
It’s a missing piece for Kennedy, too, and we’d probably be talking about that right now if Kennedy hadn’t shot himself in the foot in a half-dozen other ways.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:43 pm:
===Wow, really? Name 3 statewide races where someone was down double digits in a three way race and pulled it out.===
I’ll throw out one… Carol Moseley Braun… against Alan Dixon and Al Hofeld…
- Moline Mo - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 4:11 pm:
Obama 2004 Senate Primary.
- Bottle Rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 4:11 pm:
Glad you are learning a thing or two OW
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 4:14 pm:
===Glad you are learning a thing or two OW===
Yeah, you and - Moline Mo - teaching me lots.
Couple questions. You think it was an accident I asked about AA polling?
You see any similarities between Obama’s and Moseley Braun’s wins?
I’m new at this so go slow.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 4:26 pm:
So we’re up to two in 20+ years, with one of them being, y’know, Obama. Not exactly making it clear that this is a pretty constant thing.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 4:30 pm:
People who constantly insist on comparing governor’s races to presidential races usually don’t know much about governor’s races. Just sayin…
- Moline Mo - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 4:32 pm:
OW if you think JB will recieve more then 50% of the AA vote come on over to the quad cities. I have some ocean front property to sell you.
JB is quagmired in the lower 30s despite an unprecedented spending advantage which speaks more to his weakness as a candidate then his strength. If Kennedy or Biss can get over 33% they will win
- jake - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 4:36 pm:
Everybody here is spinning so hard it is making my head spin. I will try to be objective but disclose I am a Biss supporter. My take is that Biss was way behind before he started advertising, which he had to start late due to not having bottomless pockets. But he now seems to have enough money to get his message out without being totally buried by JB, so I think the gap will close. Whether it will close enough is anybody’s guess.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 5:03 pm:
===…if you think JB will recieve more then 50% of the AA vote come on over to the quad cities. I have some ocean front property to sell you.===
Since I didn’t say that… at all.. I’m confused why you ask that?
===JB is quagmired in the lower 30s despite an unprecedented spending advantage which speaks more to his weakness as a candidate then his strength.===
What does it say for those double digits behind him? lol
===If Kennedy or Biss can get over 33% they will win===
No.
About 37-41% will win it.
What do I know, you’re the campaign expert.
- Bottle Rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 5:11 pm:
What is the pathway for JB or Kennedy if either of them get over 50% of the AA vote while Biss is pushing 50% with white voters?
The rod and Alexi playbook does not work in this usual election and political environment.
But we will see on Election Day.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 5:12 pm:
Unusual*
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 5:16 pm:
===What is the pathway for JB or Kennedy if either of them get over 50% of the AA vote while Biss is pushing 50% with white voters?===
Cite those numbers now, please.
I’ve yet to see any polling where a 50% demographic existed for any of the three anywhere.
Are you in a dorm room?
===The rod … playbook does not work in this usual election and political environment.===
Actually, running up large totals downstate is a playbook that works…
Are you from Illinois or… what about - Moline Mo -?
- Bottle Rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 5:40 pm:
He just needs to perform slightly better downstate then Hoffman
- Bottle Rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 5:42 pm:
JB won’t have the downstate to himself to crush it. Biss is already up on TV downstate.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 5:45 pm:
===JB won’t have the downstate to himself to crush it. Biss is already up on TV downstate.===
I’m sure the public sector workers are glad to see Biss on the Tee-Vee, LOL
- Bottle Rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 5:53 pm:
Yep I forgot only public sector workers vote downstate in Democratic primaries.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 6:08 pm:
===So it is something happens with regularity===
We gave you Moseley-Braun and Obama, who else?
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 6:10 pm:
Any any similarities between Obama’s and Moseley Braun’s wins?
- Bobio - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 6:29 pm:
I haven’t seen a poll to trust in a long while but you know Jb internals caused him to switch attack.
- Bottle Rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 6:37 pm:
yea They consolidated the AA vote something non of the candidates are going to be able to do so your point doesn’t really apply to this race.
You do know each race is different right with different dynamics. You can’t just use the same playbook over and over?
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 6:41 pm:
===yea They consolidated the AA vote something non of the candidates are going to be able to do so your point doesn’t really apply to this race.===
(Sigh)
Then specifically point to 3 other…
=== I have been on both sides of a double digit lead in a tracking poll disappearing the last month of a campaign.===
…So it is something happens with regularity===
So, examples?
It’s very relevant, unless you can find 3 statewide races… outside these…in Illinois
You said it happens regularly, lol
===You do know each race is different right with different dynamics.===
Then it should be easy to show me 3 outside Obama and Moseley-Braun.
“No, no. I’ll wait”
- Bobio - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 6:46 pm:
Also, JBs cash combined with the regular Dems desperation is, in my opinion, going to bring an unprecedented amount of soft money into play. The spice will flow, as they say.
I truly worry this primary election could be tainted across the board.
- Bottle Rocket - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 8:59 pm:
we don’t have a lot of competitive statewide elections in Illinois and I stated initially double digits leads disappear but does not always lead to victory. And I was referring to all types of races not just statewide races where it is not irregular for a double digit lead to be erased. But I will give you a third and call it ahead of time: Daniel Biss.
I disagreed with your point that JB’s 10 point lead after outspending his opponents 10 to 1 can’t be overcomed. I would argue that the unique dynamics of the races makes it likely Biss will accomplish it.
But please enlighten us all OW with how JB is going to use Rod’s and Alexi playbook to win ha.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 9:11 pm:
===we don’t have a lot of competitive statewide elections in Illinois and I stated initially double digits leads disappear but does not always lead to victory.===
Hmm…
What you actually said, while teaching me, lol
====So it is something happens with regularity======
Which is it?
“I stated initially double digits leads disappear but does not always lead to victory.”
Or..
“So it is something happens with regularity”
Can’t be both.
I don’t think you actually know while claiming “you know”
===And I was referring to all types of races not just statewide races where it is not irregular for a double digit lead to be erased.===
… and yet… you brought up Sanders… a presidential race, not a governor’s race.. who incidentally lost… and you were given Obama and Moseley-Braun and when I asked what they had in common, ya “couldn’t answer” or didn’t want to answer, you choose, so maybe you might not fully gasp…
… and I grant you you told me “you know”…
… how statewide races might work?
===I disagreed with your point that JB’s 10 point lead after outspending his opponents 10 to 1 can’t be overcomed.===
I never said that. I did say your grasp how Biss could… or Kennedy could.. but you’re so busy “teaching”…
===But please enlighten us all… with how JB is going to…===
Use the google. It’s all there.
I also cover how Biss and Kennedy can win too.
What do I know. “You know”.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 10:23 pm:
- Bottle Rocket -
Use the google key. It’s out there.
You have questions to that after…
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 10:32 pm:
===I see you ability to come up with original ideas doesnot match your skills to copy and paste. Try using your smug intellect more and do less copying and pasting.===
“I see you ability to come up with original ideas… “
You’re probably right about that.
You told me.
:)