A new poll by NYT/Siena shows Brendan Kelly, candidate for Illinois’s 12th District, trailing Mike Bost by a single point, 43 to 44 percent.
In a district where Donald Trump won in 2016, the one percent difference highlights Brendan’s–and the entire Kelly Coalition’s–incredible energy and momentum. Hundreds of people across 12 counties spend thousands of hours every week to restore faith and save Southern Illinois.
Kelly’s campaign today released their fourth ad of the cycle: “Chance.” The ad focuses on Mike Bost’s 35 years in public office and his wrong votes to scrap healthcare for 38,000 Southern Illinoisans, charge older Americans a massive age tax, cut protections for people with pre-existing conditions, and raise costs in Southern Illinois. The ad also notes Bost’s inability to stand up to Big Pharma or protect Medicare. As Brendan says in the ad: “It’s time for Southern Illinois to have a chance.”
This district was drawn for the Democrats, but the party hasn’t fielded a really good candidate since Jerry Costello retired. And Mike Bost fits that district. It was the same when Mike was in the Illinois House. The HDems tried and tried to beat Bost and couldn’t do it. Kelly, from what I can tell, is a good candidate and seems to fit the district well. We’ll see soon enough.
My opponent has been in office since I was eight years old.
He’s had a chance to fix our healthcare. But he didn’t. Instead, he voted to charge older Americans a massive age tax, to cut protections for people with pre-existing conditions, and to raise costs in Southern Illinois.
He had a chance to stand up to Big Pharma and to protect Medicare. But he didn’t.
I’m Brendan Kelly, and I approve this message because it’s time for Southern Illinois to have a chance.
…Adding… After talking it over with a friend, I’m changing my mind a bit. She pointed out that his spot follows DCCC guidelines of not saying his opponent’s name, which, she said, “I don’t get.” Good point. I’d bet that his name ID isn’t high enough for people to automatically know who he’s running against.
*** UPDATE *** Bost campaign…
After claiming he wants to change the tone in politics, Brendan Kelly has just taken the 12th District race into the gutter with a new attack ad right out of the playbook of Mike Madigan and Nancy Pelosi. In the 30-second television spot, Kelly lies about Bost’s record on health care in an effort to distract from the thousands of dollars he’s taken from allies fighting for socialized medicine.
So, let’s correct the record:
Claim: Mike Bost “voted to charge older Americans a massive age tax…”
Reality: Obamacare created an arbitrary “age-rating” regulation that increased premiums for patients of all ages. Mike Bost supported reforms that reflected realistic costs in coverage to help lower premiums and improve access for patients purchasing health care in the individual market. These reforms would encourage more young enrollees to purchase coverage and improve the market for everyone.
Claim: voted to “cut protections for people with pre-existing conditions…”
Reality: During last year’s debate on repealing Obamacare, Mike Bost made clear that those with pre-existing conditions should continue to receive coverage. Bost voted for an amendment which ensured that patients could not be denied coverage because of a pre-existing condition.
Claim: voted to “raise costs in Southern Illinois… ”
Reality: Nancy Pelosi and Washington Democrats promised that Obamacare would lower premiums and increase health care access. Instead, Obamacare resulted in many counties in Illinois’ 12th Congressional District having only one option for insurance, and that plan’s premiums skyrocketed by 70 percent in a single year.
===This district was drawn for the Democrats, but the party hasn’t fielded a really good candidate since Jerry Costello retired. And Mike Bost fits that district.===
This is the most important thing to keep in mind when looking at Kelly, and ask “Is this the Dem that can fit the DEM ‘drawn’ district that Bost fits comfortably well?”
It stands out: No frilly music, which means that people ignoring a commercial break might turn their head to wonder why things suddenly got quieter. I think everyday voters appreciate simple, talk-to-the-camera messages.
I was trying to figure out where I had seen this guy before, and it occurs to me that he bears a strong resemblance to the actor, Damian Lewis, does he not? (”Band of Brothers,” “Homeland,” among many).
OK ad….Sidebar: He needs to work on his telephone fundraising skills. You cannot call and just say “this is Brendan Kelly” please call me back and not say anything else. Got 2 calls at home from him…..
You are so right about the name recognition. Several times recently the ad came on, and the people in the room with me said, “Who is he running against?”
was this shot in some expensive Chicago trial lawyer office? Also not sure about the tie and white collar image –would have had him in a health care setting–negatives are too complicated and try to cover too much ground–would have stuck with bread and better Medicare/Medicaid– and taking health insurance away from folks (ACA vote). DCCC still plenty capable of taking defeat out of the jaws of victory
Most of the 35 years, the 12th was controlled by a democrat. Bost has had it for 4 years.
Trump pushes Bost to a 5 pt win. Much of this area is typically 55-44 went 60-40 or 70-30 and many good democrats took the wrath. Trump is as popular now and he was before in these areas and they are not going to abandon him. The polls were wrong in 16 and they are wrong now.
Democrats need to confirm Kavanaugh and spend 50 days telling us why their person in each race is better. Every day we get closer to this election being a referendum on the president is a disaster for democrats in Rural areas, many of whom I support.
Kelly is an honorable man. Heart definitely in the right place. He cares and is truly open to the other side. Still, my concern with electing a dem in this cycle is that it lends more weight to the far left, socialist movement underway. Electing a dem may also serve as a referendum on impeaching Trump. Bost is a weak candidate, this race is a tough call. In this district, one can never underestimate the East St. Louis “voters.” They have their own election authority, and many question its legitimacy. Probably enough to push Kelly over the top.
- wordslinger - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 10:32 am:
–This district was drawn for the Democrats, but the party hasn’t fielded a really good candidate since Jerry Costello retired.–
Would it be more accurate to say that it was drawn for a Democrat — specifically, Costello, who’d been Big Heat down there forever?
I recall it was quite a surprise when he walked away and the GOP was caught flatfooted. The first GOP nominee to challenge for it was Jason Plummer.
- Jocko - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 10:39 am:
Someone should ask Bost his thoughts on Rauner’s term limit pledge.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 10:41 am:
===This district was drawn for the Democrats, but the party hasn’t fielded a really good candidate since Jerry Costello retired. And Mike Bost fits that district.===
This is the most important thing to keep in mind when looking at Kelly, and ask “Is this the Dem that can fit the DEM ‘drawn’ district that Bost fits comfortably well?”
Kelly is trying to out-Bost Bost
- Arsenal - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 10:44 am:
I like that ad, but I don’t know if it captures anything down in IL-12.
- Norseman - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 10:46 am:
I give the ad an “A.” It hits the points of concern for So. IL voters.
- NIU Grad - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 10:52 am:
It stands out: No frilly music, which means that people ignoring a commercial break might turn their head to wonder why things suddenly got quieter. I think everyday voters appreciate simple, talk-to-the-camera messages.
- slow down - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 10:59 am:
Good ad on a critical issue. I agree with Rich. Would be stronger if the contrast identified Bost directly.
- wordslinger - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 11:00 am:
I was trying to figure out where I had seen this guy before, and it occurs to me that he bears a strong resemblance to the actor, Damian Lewis, does he not? (”Band of Brothers,” “Homeland,” among many).
- Albany Park Patriot - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 11:07 am:
I’m not from southern Illinois, but for people that are worried about health care, like I am, I bet this gets their attention.
- Precinct Captain - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 11:12 am:
Killing dogs and winning elections are the only accomplishments Bost has, meanwhile his constituents are suffering
- Southern_Dawg - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 11:57 am:
This goes back to my comment in the thread about the polls. Hitting Bost with failure to standup for working families. This ad does just that.
- Saluki beancounter - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 12:12 pm:
As for not saying Bost’s name I suspect most folks in Southern Illinois can read…
- dbk - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 12:28 pm:
@wordslinger “…it occurs to me that he bears a strong resemblance to the actor, Damian Lewis, does he not?”
He does, but he’s a little fuller in the face than Lewis. A definite resemblance, though.
Also: sound message and it addresses one of what I understand to be Bost’s weak points vis-a-vis his own constituents.
- flea - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 12:58 pm:
OK ad….Sidebar: He needs to work on his telephone fundraising skills. You cannot call and just say “this is Brendan Kelly” please call me back and not say anything else. Got 2 calls at home from him…..
- Wondering Wendy - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 1:15 pm:
You are so right about the name recognition. Several times recently the ad came on, and the people in the room with me said, “Who is he running against?”
- anon - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 1:19 pm:
was this shot in some expensive Chicago trial lawyer office? Also not sure about the tie and white collar image –would have had him in a health care setting–negatives are too complicated and try to cover too much ground–would have stuck with bread and better Medicare/Medicaid– and taking health insurance away from folks (ACA vote). DCCC still plenty capable of taking defeat out of the jaws of victory
- Norseman - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 2:13 pm:
I noticed the Bost reference right away. However, if it’s not obvious to everyone, then it’s not perfect and the placement needs to be revised.
- the Patriot - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 2:48 pm:
Most of the 35 years, the 12th was controlled by a democrat. Bost has had it for 4 years.
Trump pushes Bost to a 5 pt win. Much of this area is typically 55-44 went 60-40 or 70-30 and many good democrats took the wrath. Trump is as popular now and he was before in these areas and they are not going to abandon him. The polls were wrong in 16 and they are wrong now.
Democrats need to confirm Kavanaugh and spend 50 days telling us why their person in each race is better. Every day we get closer to this election being a referendum on the president is a disaster for democrats in Rural areas, many of whom I support.
- west wing - Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 3:47 pm:
Solid spot. Kelly is a very good candidate.
- BenB - Wednesday, Sep 12, 18 @ 3:45 pm:
Kelly is an honorable man. Heart definitely in the right place. He cares and is truly open to the other side. Still, my concern with electing a dem in this cycle is that it lends more weight to the far left, socialist movement underway. Electing a dem may also serve as a referendum on impeaching Trump. Bost is a weak candidate, this race is a tough call. In this district, one can never underestimate the East St. Louis “voters.” They have their own election authority, and many question its legitimacy. Probably enough to push Kelly over the top.