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A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away
Tuesday, Oct 15, 2024 - Posted by Rich Miller * Big Jim was a pro-choice Republican governor who was endorsed for his fourth term by both the Illinois AFL-CIO and the Illinois Chamber…
* Gov. Jim Thompson barely won his 1982 reelection, mainly because the state was in a severe recession which was blamed on President Reagan. He went on to win his fourth term by 13 points. But here are Thompson’s county victory maps in 1978 (top) and 1976 (bottom) against Democrats Michael Bakalis and Michael Howlett, respectively… 
* On a related topic, I gave a speech last week and was asked about the current state of the Republican Party in DuPage County. The resulting back and forth led me to look up DuPage County’s general election results for president and governor going back to 1980. Here they are with Democratic winners in italics…
1982 – Thompson 71-27 1984 – Reagan 76-24 1986 – Thompson – 73-23 1988 – HW Bush 69-30 1990 – Edgar 68-31 1992 – HW Bush 48-31-21 1994 – Edgar 79-20 1996 – Dole 51-40-8 1998 – Ryan 70-28 2000 – W Bush 55-42 2002 – J Ryan 63-34 2004 - W Bush 55-45 (Obama 64-32-4) 2006 – Topinka 51-39 2008 – Obama 55-44 2010 – Brady 54-39 2012 – Obama 50-49 2014 – Rauner 61-37 2016 – H Clinton 54-39 2018 – Pritzker 48-46-3-2 2020 – Biden 58-40 2022 – Pritzker 56-41 Discuss.
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- OneMan - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 9:58 am:
I think the collars were never as socially conservative as people thought. That’s why the GOP did well with small-government Republicans compared to social-conservative Republicans. As the GOP has pushed social issues more to the forefront, it has become less small-government and less appealing to folks who really just don’t want the government involved in their lives.
- An American in Mexico - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 9:59 am:
Bring back Jim Edgar!
- Candy Dogood - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 9:59 am:
In 1980 the GOP was much better at keeping the quiet bit the quiet bit. The reliance on mail and the limited ability for campaign messaging to spill into other media markets aided in targeting that made it so that whatever GOP voters thought of themselves in DuPage County didn’t get impacted by whatever GOP campaigns were saying in other states. In 1980 issue of woman’s right to choose had just started to transition into the partisan territory it is defined as today, same with workers rights, and a lot of other things that are very moderate and historically conservative positions were still a part of the Republican message and the Republican identity.
Over the last 44 years the voters of DuPage County have changed — and I mean who they are has changed as just a natural part of demographics change.
The DuPage County GOP doesn’t get to define themselves for their own bloc of voters. They have to define themselves by whatever lunacy is coming from ridiculous right wing trolls and the politicians that now copy them, right wing militia movements that now define the party, open racism, and open contempt for women.
DuPage County in 1980 wouldn’t have voted for Darren Bailey or Donald Trump.
DuPage County in 1980 wouldn’t have voted for forcing women who have been raped to give birth.
- Macon Bakin - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 10:01 am:
I had no idea till the weekend that Durbin was the Lt Gov candidate in that race.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 10:06 am:
I’ve lived in DuPage County since the 1984 election and must admit it was a very dismal place to live for a Democrat. The first time I voted here an election worker told me with a smile “Just don’t vote the wrong way, OK?”. I don’t think she was joking.
I’m so happy to have lived long enough to see it turn around.
- TJ - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 10:13 am:
While I do think it’s worth noting that the GOP has absolutely killed itself in the suburbs by their own action, both nationally and here at home, a big chunk of the suburban swing also has to be levied on the fact that a load of Dem Chicagoans have moved to the ‘burbs as well. There admittedly used to be an old adage that you had to be heartless to not be liberal as a youth but brainless to not be a conservative once you get older, but the GOP has made conservativism so socially toxic that loads of actually fiscally conservative folks don’t want to remotely associate with the GOP any more. Why deal with all that baggage when they can be blue dog dems instead?
- Dan Johnson - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 10:14 am:
Curious what the population of DuPage was for each of those elections. Hasn’t it doubled or so?
- Benniefly2 - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 10:15 am:
Looking at those numbers, one thing is very clear… There were a sizable chunk of democrats/independent voters in Dupage County that clearly did not like Pat Quinn.
- low level - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 10:17 am:
Du Page may go 60 - 40 for Harris this year. Whatever the margin turns out to be, the sea change there and in Lake is astounding. They had been reliably Repub for over a century. Now that is ancient history. Doesnt look like they are going back anytime soon, either.
- Product of the '60's - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 10:27 am:
Lived in DuPage since 1972,and how it has changed. In ’70’s and 80’s seeing a Democratc yard sign was like finding a needle in a haystack, finding Democrats to run wasn’t much better. It has changed immensely, why the county board president is a Democrat. My younger self never thought I’d see such a change.
- frustrated GOP - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 10:34 am:
There is also something to be said about the candidates and the party systems that once existed. Rauner dismantled decades of party operators and campaign people by treating the party like an M&A project, and only funding his operations people. Trump and his backers are people none of us ever let have any real power, because they were nuts, and destructive.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 10:34 am:
===Curious what the population of DuPage was for each of those elections. Hasn’t it doubled or so?===
DuPage isn’t in much of a growth mode the last few decades. 1960 to 1990 saw an enormous burst, but it’s pretty steady since then.
1960 313,459 102.8%
1970 491,882 56.9%
1980 658,835 33.9%
1990 781,666 18.6%
2000 904,161 15.7%
2010 916,924 1.4%
2020 932,877 1.7%
2023 (est.) 921,213 [18] −1.3%
- Alton Sinkhole - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 10:38 am:
Geeeeeeez I shouldn’t have skipped the morning espresso was staring at my screen wondering “Why does he have Obama running for POTUS in 04?” before I realized that was the Senate race, lol.
- workingfromhome - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 10:49 am:
With the exception of a nine-year stint living in Cook County from 1995-2004, I’ve been in DuPage (specifically Wheaton and Glen Ellyn) my entire life. Very happy to see the change to blue in DuPage. We were closeted Democrats in a sea of red growing up in 1960s to 90s. My mom put out an Al Gore yard sign in 2000 and others would quietly cheer us on for being brave to show we were Democrats. Now in Glen Ellyn in our area I’d say 75% of the yard signs I see are Harris/Walz & Sean Casten. And it’s quite interesting to see many of my former high school classmates posting on FB nowadays about being Democrats & Never Trumpers.
- Annonin' - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 10:54 am:
Interesting set of #s. Wonder what the comparable demographics show? Not just race, but outflow from city. It all suggests that the GOPie whacks will need to do a little more than stifle the Gomers
- Jerry - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 11:05 am:
Jim Thompson was a Real Conservative if by “Conservative” you mean getting the guv’mint out of your life. Personal healthcare decisions managed by the Government are Socialism.
- @misterjayem - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 11:08 am:
I first dipped my toe into DuPage County’s Democratic campaigns in 2004.
And while correlation isn’t causation…
– MrJM
- Here - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 11:10 am:
One of Downstate’s most reliably blue county (Rock Island County) went for Big Jim thanks to that AFL-CIO endorsement.
He was a master of the politics of addition.
- Dirty Red - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 11:13 am:
Rauner dropping 15 points in four years has to be some kind of a record.
Also 2016 in DuPage:
Duckworth 49-45
Munger 52-41
Eight years later, 64,000 Democratic cards are cast in a (mostly) uncontested presidential primary, and Haley still musters 20% of the 50k GOP ballots despite being out of the race.
But it’s just the map. /s
- TJ - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 11:20 am:
==Rauner dropping 15 points in four years has to be some kind of a record.==
To be fair, Rauner didn’t have that big of a drop, because 2018 was the first time people were actually voting for or against him. 2014 Rauner was merely the “Not Pat Quinn” option, and his campaign was extremely generic and non-descript. Dude was so bad that had he run espousing his actual views on the campaign trail, he would’ve assuredly lost to even 2014 Pat Quinn.
- Mason County - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 11:21 am:
Overwhelmingly, it is racial demographics
In 1990, according to USAfacts.org, the White population was 702K, Asian 42K, Hispanic 35K and Black 15K. By 2022 the figures respectively were 590K, 123K, 141K and 47K.
Unless DuPage County bucks the trends these non White groups vote heavily for Democrats.
Do so called ‘liberal’ positions on abortion play a factor? I believe they do but not to the extent in the reason I have outlined above.
- Retired SURS Employee - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 11:27 am:
I have mentioned this before…while I was a Political Science Major at UICC in the late 60’s, Milton Rakove and Father Joseph Small published a monograph in which they predicted that as Chicagoans would move into the surrounding suburbs, the collar counties would begin a shift from solid Republican to more Democrat.
After college and law school we moved from Chicago; first to suburban Cook County but later to Will County (Bolingbrook) and then DuPage County (far east side of Aurora) based upon job requirements as well as wanting to provide a solid education for our two sons. Nevertheless, we took our political beliefs with us. Professors Rakove and Small were correct in their prediction.
- WLDS News - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 11:27 am:
For some counties here in West Central IL, the reverse has happened. Dick Durbin was once the State Rep here. Vince DeMuzio was a lock in his Senate District. Now, I doubt either one would be able to win. There is full-on MAGA Trump land and anti-Pritzker world here in downstate. I think it makes the Eastern Bloc look nice sometimes.
If we are speaking demographics, the white, non-college educated demographic is full-tilt Republican here.
Moderate Republicans I believe are holding their nose and voting for Harris - as I’ve seen a lot of her campaign signs here in places I never saw Clinton signs 8 years ago. I know signs don’t vote. I still believe Trump wins here in November no matter what, but the margin will be a bit telling.
I’m still confused as to why State Democrats don’t find someone to run against Miller. Moderate Republicans that we’ve talked to are not happy with her. Farmers are a bit worried due to the Farm Bill hold out.
I think you should come visit Opposite Land Illinois to see some interesting discourse rather than the collar counties.
- Candy Dogood - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 11:30 am:
===Personal healthcare decisions managed by the Government are Socialism===
Some of y’all need a dictionary.
- Socially DIstant watcher - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 11:32 am:
The Burbs don’t do bonkers.
- Give Me A Break - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 12:17 pm:
Sangamon County continues to defy understanding. The GOP built their party on state jobs, and yet when Rauner was laying waste to state government, trashing state employees and not paying vendors the voters in Sangamon County voted to re-elect him.
Bu than again, this is the same group of voters who will tell you they believe in smaller government and doing more with less as they drive their oversize pickups from their west side subdivisions to their state jobs while calling their local GOP office holders asking for them to hire they kids in city, county or state jobs.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 12:44 pm:
1. Pat Quinn was really awful candidate and governor, Rich shows us the receipts.
2. Brady was the past Pro-Life candidate to win DuPage (see #1).
3. A lot of talented people worked to build DuPage County Democrats in 2004, partly for Obama, partly for Madigan, partly enlighted self interest. I could name names, but I cant name them all.
4. Never underestimate the impact of Licenses for Bribes. The collapse of state patronage had a bigger impact in DuPage County than Sangamon, and it decimated the GOP GOTV operation. Ask Scott Fawell.
- Mason County - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 12:49 pm:
West Central Illinois has decidedly turned Republican. I live in the Mason and Fulton Co area. It used to be strong Democrat bastion. Carol Mosely Braun, Paul Simon Alan Dixon etc. won easily. The County Boards were dominated by Democrats. No longer.
I can only give my conjecture as to what has happened. Both Counties, particularly Fulton with IH, had strong unions that voted heavily for Democrats. It was a non college educated vote that Democrats could rely upon. These union members are gone and many have died. Their ‘kids’ support the GOP for many cultural reasons rather than strictly economics. Overwhelming White, they feel abandoned by the Democratic Party and have switched sides. Don’t want to do a dissertation on this site but I hope everyone gets the drift of what I believe to be the trend.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 12:55 pm:
Honest ILGOP types will admit MAGA is killing the party in Illinois. This is the Republican Party now, a rural party, not one that any longer appeals to educationally and economically accomplished suburbanites who would otherwise vote for a Nikki Haley, Brian Kemp or Mitt Romney.
Rauner got in 2018 what his philosophy called for. He didn’t care about governing. State government was secondary to the war on public employee unions. That doesn’t work either. Can’t win when the party is led by Rauner/Griffin or MAGA.
- James - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 12:58 pm:
Shift happens.
- Protocol Droid - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 1:21 pm:
DuPage Republicans have adapted to their worsening electoral fortunes by attempting to maintain their power and influence through supporting Democrats they can co-opt like Deb Conroy.
- Nick - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 1:22 pm:
What strikes me most about 2018/2022 is that you started seeing downballot results more firmly align with the Presidential numbers.
Even in 2016 you still got some vote splitting: Duckwoth did quite a better in Southern Illinois than Hillary did. Hard to imagine that being repeated now.
- clec dcn - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 1:46 pm:
Not sure about the data but Rauner destroyed the GOP with his crazy tactics and unable to anything. He ignored everyone and let everyone down. It has not been the same since him and he deserves all the blame. He probably should have looked to Big Jim for a playbook.
- Steve - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 1:47 pm:
Illinois isn’t a center right state any longer. Many DuPage County folks have moved to places in the South.
- Lurker - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 2:33 pm:
A guy in 2014 killed it for the State (compare 2014 to 2018) and then a National guy solidified it for what I suspect will be a very long time.
I’d even go so far to say to Illinois GOP, if you ever want to win in Illinois, figure out how to win in DuPage.
- Da big bad wolf - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 2:43 pm:
=== Overwhelming White, they feel abandoned by the Democratic Party and have switched sides.===
Not so sure that is true, why would whiteness be a factor? Is that what some of them told you? Which are the policies that exclude white people?
- Paddyrollingstone - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 2:51 pm:
Not so sure that is true, why would whiteness be a factor? Is that what some of them told you? Which are the policies that exclude white people?
I think it is more on messaging than anything as to why a lot of white people feel abandoned by the Ds. They need to be reminded, constantly, about who brought them social security, medicaid, strong unions, Obamacare, etc. They need to be reminded constantly.
- Cosgrove - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 3:16 pm:
Jim Thompson vetoed 34 of 34 anti-abortion bills that came to his desk. George Ryan vetoed the only anti-abortion bill that came to his desk. In the 1990s there were 14 pro-choice Republicans in the House and 7 pro-choice Republicans in the Senate. Today, there isn’t a single pro-choice Republican office holder in the state that I know of and every Constitutional office, plus a veto-proof Democratic majority in the legislature, is pro-choice. Go figure.
- Steve - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 4:09 pm:
-Which are the policies that exclude white people?-
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-black-lives-matter-equal-opportunity-corporate-diversity/?srnd=premium
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 4:15 pm:
==Many DuPage County folks have moved to places in the South==
You must have the data to back up that “many” comment. Would be interested to see it.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 4:16 pm:
==why would whiteness be a factor==
That’s somebody’s lazy attempt at “explaining” the shift. Couldn’t possibly be about the trajectory of the Republican Party in Illinois. It must be because of race.
- Mayo Sandwich - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 4:24 pm:
Re Bloomberg: What does something private companies choose have to do with the policies of a political party?
- Mason County - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 4:31 pm:
Or it could be the ‘trajectory of the Democratic Party in Illinois.’
Two sides to all of this. So do a little independent reading and thinking
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 4:48 pm:
==So do a little independent reading and thinking==
First of all, bite me.
Second of all, duh.
- NMP - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 4:56 pm:
DuPage County has achieved more in the last two years than in the previous decade. That is credit to Conroy. Facts matter!
- I.T. Guy - Tuesday, Oct 15, 24 @ 7:26 pm:
1980 was the first election I voted in. I was part of the 10% in your numbers. Still have my Anderson Lucey t-shirt. Thanks for the trip down memory lane.