A look at the numbers
Friday, Aug 15, 2025 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Capitol News Illinois…
The chairman of the Texas Republican Party said Thursday that he thinks Illinois is winnable for the GOP in 2026, despite the party’s lack of success in recent elections.
Speaking to a joint meeting of the Illinois party’s state central committee and county chairs, Abraham George pointed to the fact that Donald Trump won 43.5% of the vote in Illinois in the 2024 presidential election. That was three points more than he received in 2020, when he lost his first reelection bid to Democrat Joe Biden, and nearly five points more than he received in his first presidential run in 2016. The closer margins, however, were mostly due to fewer votes for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, as Trump improved his vote total by just over 2,000 from 2020 to 2024.
“That’s not a blue state anymore. That’s a purple state,” George said. “This state can flip to a Republican pretty fast.”
* Sun-Times…
Texas Republican Party Chair Abraham George, who earlier drew cheers in saying Illinois could flip to red, was asked how the state can do that while struggling to find recognizable candidates to run in statewide contests.
“That’s up to the Illinois Republican Party to do that. But Donald Trump got 43% in Illinois, and I think it is trending toward a Republican state in the last six cycles,” George said. “It seems to be more red every single time. So I think if they put in some work into it, it can become a real challenge for Democrats to win.”
Rounded presidential and gubernatorial results for the past six cycles…
2024: 54-43 Dem
2022: 55-42 Dem
2020: 58-41 Dem
2018: 55-39-4 Dem
2016: 56-39-4 Dem
2014: 50-46 GOP
2020 was a particularly huge year for Democrats, and 2014 was Pat Quinn’s defeat (after beating Bill Brady by less than a point four years earlier).
Other than that, the Democratic results have been pretty static, while the Republican results have nudged up a wee bit (although the third party candidates in 2018 and 2016 appeared to hurt their numbers).
* Meanwhile, the Democratic Party of Illinois dropped some oppo yesterday…
While Illinois Democrats continue to support their Texas colleagues’ fight for democracy, the Illinois Republican Party today hosted far-right Texas GOP Chair Abraham George as their featured speaker. The Democratic Party of Illinois released the following statement:
“In true ILGOP fashion, they’re once again platforming violence, bad ethics, government overreach, and imposing their values on your lives. Instead of using their time and energy to fight the authoritarianism and fundamentalism that marginalizes so many Americans, they invite those ideals to breakfast.”
These are the values the ILGOP are celebrating:
- ChicagoVinny - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 12:37 pm:
The ILGOP is so strong that they have to bring in someone from Texas to say how strong they are.
- City Zen - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 12:41 pm:
==Illinois is winnable for the GOP in 2026==
How about getting out of super-minority status first?
- Stephenson County - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 12:51 pm:
The Democrat in the Texas senate race in 2026 will do better than the GOP senate candidate in Illinois.
- Steve Rogers - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 12:56 pm:
=chairman of the Texas Republican Party said Thursday that he thinks Illinois is winnable for the GOP in 2026=
Sure, Jan
- DuPage Saint - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 1:02 pm:
If the Republicans started to run what they refer to as RINOS and moderates and traitors, you know normal people I could see the state going Republican in a few cycles especially if as what usually happens with one party rule the Democrats started infighting
- CA-HOON - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 1:19 pm:
I get that it’s a party chair’s job, in part, to be an optimistic cheerleader but I’m not sure resorting to false hope will motivate anyone. To claim Illinois can be flipped red when the IL-GOP can’t even put together a full slate of state-wide candidates is a quite the self-troll.
- JoanP - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 1:25 pm:
I want what Mr. George is smoking.
- Lincoln Lad - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 1:47 pm:
Sometimes it’s better to just look foolish than to speak and confirm it.
- Just Me 2 - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 1:47 pm:
Can’t win a race if you don’t have a candidate.
- Duck Duck Goose - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 2:13 pm:
In what version of reality is 43% a strong showing? Kamala got 42.5% in Texas. Does that make Texas a purple state?
- TNR - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 2:13 pm:
The relative closeness of those numbers are actually a condemnation of the Illinois GOP. Republicans have won statewide office in states that are bluer than Illinois by nominating moderate candidates who have turned out to be very successful and popular. Charlie Baker in Massachusetts and Larry Hogan in Maryland are just two examples. The Illinois Republican Party has just become too MAGA to nominate candidates like that.
- Pundent - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 2:42 pm:
=The Illinois Republican Party has just become too MAGA to nominate candidates like that.=
It speaks to the weakness of the state party and that predates MAGA. It’s been lacking an identity for almost 20 years now. It leaves it susceptible to being co-opted by anyone with money (Griffin/ Rauner) or an idealogue. It’s got a handful of followers but no real leaders. That’s why they have to import a guy like Abraham George to speak on Republican day.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 2:47 pm:
===It speaks to the weakness of the state party===
It ain’t the state party.
- Frida’s boss - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 2:58 pm:
The GOP is on life support in illinois. There are pockets of GOP strongholds but the voting power in those locations doesn’t account for the “scorpion tail” that is in the map. There could be stronger GOP districts in the collars but those were mapped out of existence in ‘12 and finished off in ‘20. The dawn of Donald Trump has taken the knees out of the GOP north of I80.
- maybe - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 3:29 pm:
==How about getting out of super-minority status first?==
There is only a super majority because of gerrymandering. Dems do not pull super majority votes in the gubernatorial race. But to the point, no the GOP will not flip or change their winnable districts unless Dems let them.
- Demoralized - Friday, Aug 15, 25 @ 4:03 pm:
@maybe
The Democrats control every statewide office and they have won handily.